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  • How To Recognize Great Performing StocksYour guide to spot the cup-with-handle chart pattern.

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    How To Recognize Great Performing Stocks

    When you read this simple 16-page booklet, you have in your hands the first step to your becoming financially independent for the rest of your life! The freedom and opportunities in America are unlimited.

    Contrary to a negative national news media, America is the most productive, successful country in the worldand it makes no difference where you come from, what you look like, old or young, rich or pooryou can make it and become financially successful if you have the drive, desire, and determination to work at it and never give up.

    Why? Because entrepreneurs, innovators, and inventors are the key driving force behind every U.S. economic cycle. There are dozens of new Apples and Googles every cycle. They create the vast majority of our new jobs, products, and new super stock market winnersnot our big older companies that are downsizing and losing market share.

    Now, the most incredible secret is that while half of all Americans invest in the stock market in one way or another, few have any idea how to recognize or benefit from the next Apple or Google. Thats what we will show you how to do in the rest of these pages.

    To begin with, exceptional stock selection is all about vital facts, never personal opinions which can easily be wrong. Its also about human nature and psychology. You need to learn the things you think you know about buying stocks that you must stop doing, and the historically proven new rules and principles you need to start using to materially improve your results.

    Next, you must look for the very best stock in a better-performing industry. It will be the stock with the bestand typically acceleratingpercentage increases in its recent quarterly earnings per share and sales plus, either a high return on equity or pretax profit margin and it will have either a superior new product in broad demand, a significant improvement in its industry conditions or new management.

    But, here is the real secret that only one in every hundred or so investors understand and use with any skill. You must learn how to read and interpret daily, weekly and monthly price and volume charts

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    that can tell you if a stock is behaving properly or not and if it is under accumulation (institutional buying) or not. Charts measure the actual supply and demand for a stock in the real marketplace and the best, least risky time to begin your buying and the worst, most risky times to buy or continue holding a stock. This is an enormous advantage when you combine it with a stocks superior fundamentals like strong earnings and sales.

    Charts, to a smart investor, are just like MRIs to a doctor who wants to see the true facts of whats really going on rather than relying solely on opinions or guesses. Or, when you drive across the country, you want a road map to make sure you know where youre going, right?

    The Cup-with-Handle PatternThe most common highly successful chart pattern we have is named the Cup-with-Handle, because it looks like a teacup if viewed from the side. You will find hundreds of these in every new bull market, so study these patterns carefully until you have their similar images deeply imbedded in your mind.

    Cup-with-Handle Traits

    Base Length - base should occur over at least 7 weeks, but can last much longer.

    - Dep

    th %

    -

    The stock usually corrects 20-30% from the peak (left side of the cup), but can be as deep as 50% in bear markets.

    The handle lasts one week or more and drifts downward 8 to 12% along its lows but as much as 20-30% in bear markets. Volume may dry up in low area of handle.

    Buy point occurs when a stock moves up through the handles high on heavier than normal volume, at least a 50% increase above the stocks average daily volume.

    Handle should form in upper half of the cup, and within 15% of old high.

    Old high

    Prior

    price

    uptre

    nd of

    at le

    ast 3

    0%

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    The cup-with-handle is a great way to spot leading stocks at the beginning of every major new market uptrend, which usually occur a few times every year. Leaders tend to break out of sound chart patterns like the cup-with-handle in the early days and weeks of each new uptrend. Therefore, it is vitally important to know when the market begins a new uptrend or correction since 75% of all stocks follow the general market trend.

    It takes a while to spot these patterns, so study this booklet closely. See more charts in Investors Corner in IBD. Plus, visit our web site, Investors.com to view more samples in the education section and video examples in the Daily Stock Analysis.

    It is key to understand that over 90% of all successful bases are formed during corrections in the general market. So, a correction is actually a good thing, since it sets up winning stocks for the next uptrend. But, it is also the time when media coverage will be negative so you have to learn to read what the market itself is telling you and be prepared to buy when the market starts a confirmed new uptrend.

    The chart at the right gives you definitions of key features included in IBD chart examples. You can use this as an additional reference as you go through this booklet.

    We look forward to helping you become a more successful investor!

    William J. ONeil

  • 5 Copyright 2008 Investors Business Daily, Inc. All rights reserved

    Average weekly volume line

    200-day moving average line10-week moving

    average line

    Weekly volume bars

    High

    LowCloseClose

    Thick black line means stock closed at a higher price than prior weeks closeprior weeks close

    Thin gray line means stock closed at a lower price than prior weeks close

    Relative Price Strength Line Relative Price Strength Line vs. S&P 500. Uptrending line means stock is outperforming S&P 500.

    Weekly ChartWeekly ChartWeekly Chart

    Stock splitsStock splitsStock splitsStock splits

    S&P 500 correctionS&P 500 correction

    S&P 500 IndexS&P 500 Index

    Chrysler Increased 353% in 98 WeeksChrysler Increased 353% in 98 Weeks

    Buy point

    Cup-with-handleCup-with-handle

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    Copyright 2008 Investors Business Daily, Inc. All rights reserved

    Apple Increased 1534% in 99 WeeksApple Increased 1534% in 99 Weeks

    Handle area has 6 weeks in a row with prices closing in a tight range (closing prices shown by horizontal slash marks). This is a sign of accumulation (professional buying).

    Buy point

    Buy pointAt the buy point:

    Current quarterly Earnings Per Share (EPS): +433% Prior quarter EPS: +300% Last 3 quarters sales accelerated: +8%, +19%, to +36%+8%, +19%, to +36%

    The P/E ratio was 72 before it increased 1534% The P/E ratio was 72 before it increased 1534% (so much for the myth that you should only buy low P/E stocks). The quarterly earnings were the vital factor not the P/E ratio.the vital factor not the P/E ratio.

    This stock was found just bygoing through a once a weekchart book on 2/27/04.

    20-week cup-with-handle pattern with:6 weeks on the left side of base 4 weeks along the bottom of the cup 3 weeks up on the right side of cup 7 weeks sideways in handle

    Company has new product: iPodCompany has new product: iPod

    Breakout weeksvolume was 82%above avg. weekly volume

    Ultimate top $202.96Ultimate top $202.96

    Cup-with-handleCup-with-handle

    Cup-with-handleCup-with-handle

  • 7 Copyright 2008 Investors Business Daily, Inc. All rights reserved

    Wal-Mart Stores Increased 967% in 163 WeeksWal-Mart Stores Increased 967% in 163 Weeks

    Note similarity of Wal-Mart and Chrysler cup-Note similarity of Wal-Mart and Chrysler cup-with-handles. The more history you know, the more you will improve your stock selection. Recognizing sound chart patterns and insist-ing on big earnings and sales increases can improve your results.

    EPS accelerated in March 1980 quarter EPS accelerated in March 1980 quarter up +48% from +29% in prior quarterAnnual EPS Growth was +36% Sales were up +36% Return on Equity was 26%Return on Equity was 26%

    Wal-Mart put discount stores in small towns where there was no competition. towns where there was no competition. When did you first shop in a Wal-Mart?

    Wal-Mart ultimately went up another 4,712% for a total of 51,240% from the initial buy point.

    Handle has 4 weeks in a row of tight closing prices.

    Many other chart patternsformed on the way up until Wal-Marts peak in December 1999.

    Big volume clue

    Buy point

    Cup-with-handleCup-with-handle

    Market correction

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    Copyright 2008 Investors Business Daily, Inc. All rights reserved

    Cup-with-handleCup-with-handle

    Redman Industries Increased 849% in 49 WeeksRedman Industries Increased 849% in 49 Weeks

    I was shaken out of the stock in this market correction and learned a valuable lesson.

    Note similarity to Baidu.com in 2007; one corrected 30%, the other 27% with same fast the other 27% with same fast run up and handles.

    Note huge volume on prior uptrend to cup-with-handle.

    Big volume demand like Baidu.com in 2007.

    Up 20% in 1st week out of base signals strength of a big winner.

    Buy point

    At the buy point:Mobile Home industry sales were up 25% per year Current quarterly EPS $0.12 vs. $0.04: +200% Mobile Home industry sales were up 25% per year Current quarterly EPS $0.12 vs. $0.04: +200% Mobile Home industry sales were up 25% per year

    Charts just give you the facts of Charts just give you the facts of whats happening - no opinions.

  • 9 Copyright 2008 Investors Business Daily, Inc. All rights reserved

    Baidu.com Increased 223% in 25 WeeksBaidu.com Increased 223% in 25 Weeks

    Buy point

    Note similarity to Redman chart in 1968.

    Note tight closes each week.

    Key volume demand like Redman.

    Chinese internet company Chinese internet company

    There was also a huge cup-with-handle base from Sept. 2005 quarter to June 2007 quarter buy point

    Market correction

    Cup-with-handleCup-with-handle

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    Copyright 2008 Investors Business Daily, Inc. All rights reserved

    Priceline.com Increased 321% in 85 WeeksPriceline.com Increased 321% in 85 Weeks

    Buy pointBuy point

    You probably saw the TV ads, but did you see the 15-week cup-with-You probably saw the TV ads, but did you see the 15-week cup-with-handle during the summer of 2006?Were you using charts then? If not, just remember most of the best performing professionals use them along with their fundamental work.

    General market corrections create General market corrections create over 90% of all bases - so its key to never get discouraged when new to never get discouraged when new bases are building.

    Relative Strength Relative Strength line in uptrend

    Volume measures the amount of supply and demand. Arrows show huge demand.

    Cup-with-handleCup-with-handle

  • 11 Copyright 2008 Investors Business Daily, Inc. All rights reserved

    Southwestern Energy Increased 648% in 94 WeeksSouthwestern Energy Increased 648% in 94 Weeks

    Price of oil and natural gas goes up due to big demand from China, India, Price of oil and natural gas goes up due to big demand from China, India, and Brazil. Meanwhile, the US built no refineries for 30 years and was having to import gasoline from foreign countries. The US also prohibited offshore drilling and use of federal lands that were set off limits. This company had 4 quarters of earnings increases before it emerged from its 13-week cup-with-handle.

    Note how the stock lived along its 10-week moving average price line. Quality growth stocks in an uptrending market can usually be bought on the first 2 or 3 times they pull back to their 10-week line.

    Buy point

    Cup-with-handleCup-with-handle

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    Copyright 2008 Investors Business Daily, Inc. All rights reserved

    Charles Schwab Increased 439% in 26 WeeksCharles Schwab Increased 439% in 26 WeeksTypical cup-with-handle base shows 5-7 weeks on the declining left side of the pattern and corrects 20-30% but the pattern and corrects 20-30% but can decline 50% in bear markets.

    The peak in most handle areas usually gets within 5%, 10% or 15% of the old high of the base, which was $30.67 in Schwab.15% of the old high of the base, which was $30.67 in Schwab.15% of the old high of the base, At $29 buy point:At $29 buy point:

    3 year annual EPS growth rate was +23% per year Current quarter was up +25% Relative Price Strength Rating in Investors Business Daily Research Tables was 96 (price had outperformed 96% of all other stocks) Accumulation/Distribution Rating was B Return on Equity was 29.4%Return on Equity was 29.4%

    Base formed during correction in general market - corrections create your next big winners.

    2nd week of handle closes at peak, barely down from prior weeks close.

    On breakout week, stock traded On breakout week, stock traded 15.7 million shares, about 100% more than average weekly volume.

    Buy point

    Climax topClimax topSell

    Cup-with-handleCup-with-handle

  • 13 Copyright 2008 Investors Business Daily, Inc. All rights reserved

    America Online Increased 481% in 23 WeeksAmerica Online Increased 481% in 23 WeeksAt buy point:

    AOLs current quarter EPS was up +200% Sales were up +67% The number of institutional sponsors had increased for each of the last 7 quarters

    Breakout weeks volume should always be higher than prior weeks volume.than prior weeks volume.

    4-week handle area

    S & P 500 market S & P 500 market average corrects

    Leading stocks that eventually have a climax top should be sold and profits nailed down while you still have them.

    Definition of a climax top:Stock breaks out of sound base and advances over 18 weeks or more and then move accelerates upward for 1 or 2 weeks up 25 to 50%.then move accelerates upward for 1 or 2 weeks up 25 to 50%.Daily chart will show 7 out of 8 days or 8 out of 10 days up in a row with one day being the largest point gain in one day since the beginning of the whole move from its base. Using charts and knowing this rule got most in-vestors out of growth stocks before the market correction of 2000 - 2003.

    Buy pointBuy point

    Climax topClimax topSell

    Sound chart patterns all have Sound chart patterns all have a strong prior uptrend of 30% or more and good volume.

    Cup-with-handleCup-with-handle

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    Copyright 2008 Investors Business Daily, Inc. All rights reserved

    Qualcomm Increased 2567% in 52 WeeksQualcomm Increased 2567% in 52 Weeks

    A general market follow-through day occurs when either the Dow Jones industrials, S&P 500, NYSE Composite, or Nasdaq Composite on IBDs Hows the Market? page has an attempted rally that after the first 2 or 3 days can show a powerful percent-age increase on higher volume than the prior day. At that time and over the next several weeks, future big leaders like you see in this booklet will breakout -- so these are the things you cant afford to miss... but you need rules and past examples to guide you.

    Staying in phase with the general market direction Staying in phase with the general market direction is vital, because now you see that 90% of all new chart bases are formed during market corrections, you raise some cash when corrections start and wait for what we call follow-through days that occur when a new uptrend finally starts... that happens when an eventual attempted rally has a follow-through day anytime after the 3rd day of an attempted rally.

    Qualcomm (cell phone company) at buy point had: Qualcomm (cell phone company) at buy point had: Current quarterly EPS of +29% Quarterly sales up +54% P/E ratio of 35 IBD Accumulation/Distribution Rating of A Relative Price Strength Rating of 81

    General market correctionGeneral market correction

    Downtrend line along tops shows a possible tops shows a possible early buy point.early buy point.

    Big volume clue

    Climax topClimax topSell

    A follow-through day must show increased A follow-through day must show increased volume, either the Dow Jones industrials or Nasdaq Composite are up 2% or more, or the NYSE Composite or S&P 500 is up 1.7% the NYSE Composite or S&P 500 is up 1.7% or more. Historically, 70% of follow-through days work.days work.

    Buy points happen at or shortly after follow-through days.

    Cup-with-handleCup-with-handle

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    How To Recognize Great Performing StocksYour guide to spot the cup-with-handle chart pattern.

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