how much faith should we have in data? - odi friday lunchtime lecture
TRANSCRIPT
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Jeni [email protected]
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Decisions, decisions…
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How to travel around London
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Where to send my kids to school
https://www.flickr.com/photos/wikidave/4186909251
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How much to pay my employees
https://www.flickr.com/photos/59937401@N07/5929622407
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https://www.flickr.com/photos/141776778@N02/27323692585
Which way to vote
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Humans are bad at decision making
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AnchoringAvailabilitySubstitutionOptimism & loss aversionFramingSunk cost
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Data to the rescue!
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https://www.flickr.com/photos/pkwflickr/6188760566/in/album-72157627764211574/
Roads help us navigate to a location.Data helps us navigate to a decision.
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How to travel around London
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Where to send my kids to school
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How much to pay my employees
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Which way to vote
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Data can definitely help usmake better decisions
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So we are starting todrive decisions with data
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What adverts we see
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How we are treated when we're ill
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Where and how we drive
https://www.flickr.com/photos/44124348109@N01/4044601053
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But data-based decisionsare not necessarily good
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How our photos get tagged
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How much we get fined
http://www.theregister.co.uk/2017/02/08/ministry_justice_conviction_by_computer_scheme_go_ahead/
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https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/dec/29/government-confident-in-centrelink-debt-compliance-system-despite-reported-errors
Whether we get issued a debt notice
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https://www.propublica.org/article/machine-bias-risk-assessments-in-criminal-sentencing
How long we spend in prison
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Code has bugs
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Data has flaws
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Biased data collectionErrors in sensor readingsPeople lying or lendingOut of dateFragmentary
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That doesn't meanwe shouldn't use dataJust not blindly
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Decisions that affect people
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What should we do?
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1. Be open to scrutiny
https://www.flickr.com/photos/opensourceway/5535034664/
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Proactive monitoring
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2. Allow appeals and challenges
https://www.flickr.com/photos/sidelong/5923745788
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Communication about data use
https://newdigitalrights.projectsbyif.com/data-access-tracker
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3. Tailor algorithms to the impact of errors
https://www.flickr.com/photos/benstephenson/27298596
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Owe money?Ge
t a d
ebt n
otice
? YesNo
No
Yes
type II errorfalse
negativetype I error
false positive
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4. Enable reflection & correction
https://www.flickr.com/photos/phild41/6209957186
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Automatically removing bias
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Automatically monitoring emergent bias
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The Jury by John Morgan
5. Introduce diversity into decision making
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Voting?
http://www.flickr.com/photos/83823904@N00/64156219/
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Argument?
https://www.flickr.com/photos/jamescridland/4984060658
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https://www.flickr.com/photos/quinnanya/1910544811
Human judgement
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Be open to scrutinyAllow appeals & challengesTailor algorithms to the impact of errorsEnable reflection & correctionIntroduce diversity into decision making
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Decisions should beinformed by data not driven by data
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Jeni Tennison – CEO – @JeniT – [email protected]