how do we measure progress? will any care?
DESCRIPTION
Presentation by Mike Tretheway at IATA/AAAE Environmental Symposium on November 14, 2008TRANSCRIPT
strategictransportation
& tourismsolutions
How Do We Measure Progress?
and will any care?
Presentation to IATA /AAAE Environmental Symposium
14 November 2008
Prepared byInterVISTAS Consulting Inc.
Washington DC, Vancouver, San Juan PR, Winnipeg, Ottawa, Chicago London
Mike TrethewayExecutive Vice President & Chief Economist
InterVISTAS Consulting Inc.
strategictransportation
& tourismsolutions
Will Anyone Care ?
2
3
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Spiritual Messaging"Making selfish choices such as flying
on holiday or buying a large car are a symptom of sin.”
"Sin is not just a restricted list of moral mistakes.
It is living a life turned in on itself where people ignore the consequences of their actions."
Richard ChartresBishop of London
5
Sophisticated Messaging on Roads & Rail Routes to LHR
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7
Coming Soon to North America
Climate Change issue is not confined to Europe
North American attitudes are shifting rapidlyAviation will be targeted
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Sensitivity of Air Travelto ETS induced price increase
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Price Impact on Air Travel
Less than you might thinkair travel is thought of as ‘price elastic’
10% price increase typically reduces travel by 13%
but when price increase affects all routes, carriers, destinations and modes
air travel is observed to be price inelastic10% price increasereduces travel by only 6%
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Price Impact
When all carriers and modes affectede.g., fuel cost increaseor carbon tax
Then 10% increase in fares reduces travel by only 6%
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Impact of Economy on Air Travel
What is effect of 10% increase in income?
varies by country and length of haulshort haul
US: 18%, other developed 15%, developing 20%
ultra long haul22% to 27%
What is effect of 5% decline?-8% to – 13%
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Measuring Aviation’s Success
13
Hypothetical Scenario
4.0% pa Annual Traffic Growth1.8% Emission per Pax Reduction
increase to 1.9% with 797/A360increase to 2.0% with Y3
ETS Effect$50 carbon.75 tonne per round tripuse elasticity from IATA study (-.6)
Voluntary Carbon Offsetsincrease from 1% to 30% over 10 years
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Over 25 Years
Traffic Grow to 267% of 2008 levelBut emissions efficiency reduces carbon to 189%
another 26% from more aggressive aircraft technology
ETS reduces traffic/carbon by 16%Net is carbon growing to 146%
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Global Aircraft Emission ProjectionsHypothetical Scenario
-
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
Inde
x (2
008-
1.0)
Offset reduction effectEffect ETS
Normal emission reduction
797/A360Y3 aircraft
remaining emissions
Offsets
"Normal Emission Reduction per RPK
737/A320 replacementWidebody replacement
Remaining Carbon
Traffic Growth @4% pa
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Effect of Offset Purchases
-
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
1.20
1.40
1.60
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
Inde
x (2
008=
1.0)
Offset reduction effectremaining emissions
Offsets
Remaining Carbon
Effect of Offset Purchases
Emissions w/o Offsets
Voluntary Offsets
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How Do We Account for Offsets?
Many carriers now offering pax an offset option
but typically sold via offset provider not by the carrier
Other groups also selling travel offsets
e.g., Whistler Resort (2010 Olympics)direct sale of offsets for entire travel experience(including air travel)
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How Do We Account for Offsets?
Carriers generally not tracking offset sales
hence industry is not able to document the contribution of offsets to climate change strategy
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Required: Carbon Accounting
Governments will measure carbon via fuel consumptionThe industry must track & report
purchase of ETS offsets by carrierspurchase of voluntary offsets by pax via
direct carrier salesindirect sales via offset providersindirect sales via other tourism organisations
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Aviation Sector GHGE report card Airline Airport Other Total GHG production
from fuel ######### ## ## #########from other sources ######### ### ### #########
Less ETS purchases ######### ##### ## #########- Voluntary offsets
carrier sales ####### #######carrier-supplier ####### #######other sales #### ####
- Use of Sustainable Fuels ##### #####- Airport ETS, offset ##### ####
NET GHGE ######### ####### ######## #########
Trend: Net GHG from Aviation Sector
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
1.1
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Thank Youwww.InterVISTAS.com
Solutions in:Climate change strategiesCarbon offset procurementCarbon auditing