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How Can Conservation Strategies Mitigate Impacts of Climate Change in Amazonia?

Timothy J. KilleenLee HannahLuis A. Solórzano

Center for Applied Biodiversity ScienceConservation International

Gordon & Betty Moore Foundation

Climate Change Integrated Conservation Strategy (CCS)

Based on what Scenario?• Direction (Wetter, Drier or Neither)• Magnitude Unknown?• Gradual Change vs. Tipping Point• Spatial and Temporal Variability• Synergism with Other Development Phenomena

Uncertainty

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• Avoidance • Mitigation • Adaptation• Diversification • Acceptance

Business Managers and Financial Planners

-> Global GHG Reductions -> Protected Areas-> Sustainable Development-> Protected Area, RESEX, etc.-> Admitting Defeat

Climate Change Risk Management Conservation Strategy

Uncertainty = Risk

Risk Management

CORE Amazon

Most Biological Diverse Area on the Planet• Highest Precipitation• Low Seasonality• High Radiant Energy• Stable Over Millennia• Large Geographic Area

Simultaneously Conserve• High Diversity• Evolutionary Processes• Largest Tropical Wilderness Area

Priority number oneconserve the

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Core Amazon

WorldClim DatasetHijmans et al. 2004)

?

?

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Extra-Equatorial Wet Spots

Interaction between a regional weather system SALLJ and the topography of the Andes

Priority Two

Marengo et al. 2002

Cloud Frequency

Killeen T., Douglas, M. Consiglio, T. Jørgensen, P.M. & MejiaJ. (2007) J. Biogeography (in press)

Recent studies have shown that spatially separated regions with similar precipitation regimes have similar floras

Precipitation

Dry

Wet

Floristic Analysis (Species similarity)

TROPICOS / MBG

NOAAMichael Douglas

Climatically Stable

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Priority ThreeUnderstand Ecotones

WorldClim DatasetHijmans et al. 2004)

Extremes of Distributions• Divergent populations

(genetically adapted to extremes)• Remnant populations• Pioneer populations• Evolutionary Laboratories

Borders between Biomes• Amazonia – Cerrado / Dry Forest• Lowland Forest – Montane Forest• Montane Forest – Paramo / Puna

Edaphic / Disturbance Ecotones• Forest - Savanna• Wetlands• High Andean Tree Line

Climatic Ecotones

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The non-climate constraints to species range distributions are

most evident at ecotones

Ecotones & Beta Diversity

AC-1AC-2

CP-1

CP-2

CR-1CR-2

EN-1 EN-2

FO-b

LO-1LO-2

LT-1LT-2

SR-1

0

0

40 80

40

80

DCA All Plots

Axis 1

Axi

s 2

Physiognomic ClassesDeciduous / SemideciduousSemideciduous PalmDwarf Evergreen / CerradaoDeciduous CerradaoSemi Evergreen LianaEvergreen UplandRiparian FloodedInundated / HummockSwamp Forest

AC-1AC-2

CP-1CP-2

CR-1

CR-2

EN-1EN-2

FO-b

LO-1LO-2

LT-1LT-2

SR-1

0

0

40 80

40

80

DCA All Plots

Axis 1

Axis

2

Geologic SubstrateQuaternaryTertiarySandstoneGraniticDolorite

Ecotones & Beta Diversity

Number 1-ha plots Mean α diversity

Total species richness

Noel Kempff 28 75 896 Manu 26 174 1006 Yasuní 15 239 1356

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ambsa

chimc

chimj

gtb2n

gtb3s gtb5n

inpa5inpa7ltr942

mara3mara4

nkbc2

nkcp1

nklt1nklt3rodv10

suto1suto7

suto8

tucav

Long.

Lat.0

6,5

20 40 60 80 100

6,5

6,5

6,6

6,6

6,6

6,6

6,6

CCA Genera Lowland Plots X LatLong

Axis 1

Axis

2

South West Amazon

South Center AmazonGran

Chaco

CCA with 114 plots & 379 genera

Priority Four: Identify Species Gradients

Conservation Corridors

Priority FiveTopography and AltitudeLocal Geology

The area within the southern Amazon that will subject to greatest seasonal stress (the future ecotone) is both topographically Y geologically variable

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Priortiy Six River Corridors, more bang for the buck

Aquatic and terrestrial systems, better soil moisture statusLatitudinal Connectivity (southern Amazon

Cloud ForestsHow stable are they?

AZE (endemism)

Priority Seven: Altitudinal Corridors

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Priority Eight

Don’t stop at the forest’s edge

Advance of the Agricultural FrontierForestry and Logging

HydrocarbonsMining

Hydroelectric PowerBiofuels

Global Markets and Geopolitics

Priority nine, ten eleven, ……...Whatever strategy must also be viewed in they context of the other drivers of change that are at work in the Amazon

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Advance of the Agricultural FrontierForestry and Logging

The combined impact of climate change and deforestation and logging will not be evenly distributed across the Amazon

Regional Centers of Vertebrate Endemism

Hydrocarbons & Mining

MitigationConcessions = Reserves (Carajas)Compensations Funds (Bolivia / Ecuador)“Off shore” Oil Platform (Peru)

• Oil/Gas => Western Amazon• Industrial Minerals => Eastern Amazon• Gold => EverywhereImpacts• Increased Green House Gas Emissions• Increased Access to Remote Areas• Increased Demand for Energy

Trombetas

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Hydroelectric Power

Adaptation – Mitigation• Multiple small-scale hydro facilities • Sacrifice whole watersheds and

conserve whole watersheds

ImpactsFragmentation of Aquatic Ecosystems• Tocantins/Araguaia• Xingu• Madeira / Mamore

Synergistic Feedback Loops• Aluminum smelters => Mining (+)

Biofuels

Adaptation / MitigationRecuperation of 35 M hectares of degraded landReduced GHG Emissions

ImpactsIncreased Deforestation • Ethanol (Sugar Cane)• Biodiesel (African Oil Palm)• Celulosic Alcohol (Elephant Grass)• Vegetable Charcoal

20,000 hectares of African oil palm in Amazonian Ecuador

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Global Markets & Geopolitics

China• soy• hydrocarbons• cash

Trade• ALCA • Mercosur

Brazil• regional trade• energy security• Pacific ports

Commodity Markets• Soy• Minerals • Oil & gas

Social Movements• natural resource• sovereignty issues

Global ScaleCommunicate the Importance of the Core Amazon

Basin ScaleEmphasize Importance of Extra–Equatorial Wet Spots

National / State ScaleMore Protected AreasDesign Climate Change-Enabled Corridors

Local ScaleIdentify Potential Mini-Refugia

The Big ChallengeChange the Development Paradigm

Conservation Strategy for the Amazon(Including the Andes & the Guyanas)

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Altitudinal Corridors(Hydrocarbon Poi\tential)

IIRSA (IDB, CAF, FONPLATA)

Guyana ShieldCorredor Arconorte

Andes & Western Amazon

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Should I be Worried?