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Housing Deli Housing Delivery on Strategic Sites Research Study November 2005

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Page 1: Housing Delivery on Strategic Sites

Housing DeliHousing Delivery on Strategic Sites

Research Study

November 2005

Colin Buchanan45 Notting Hill GateLondonW11 3PBT 020 7309 7000E [email protected]

Page 2: Housing Delivery on Strategic Sites

Housing Delivery on Strategic Sites Research Study

Countryside Properties

December 2005

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Housing Delivery on Strategic Sites Research Study

Project No: 100661 December 2005 Newcombe House 45 Notting Hill Gate London, W11 3PB Telephone: 020 7309 7000 Fax: 020 7309 0906 Email : [email protected] Prepared by: Approved by:

____________________________________________ ____________________________________________Roland Brass Greg Lee Status: Final Issue no: 1 Date: November 2005

i:\10066x_housing delivery on strategic sites in the east of england\study\reports\reports\final report 091205.doc

(C) Copyright Colin Buchanan and Partners Limited. All rights reserved. This report has been prepared for the exclusive use of the commissioning party and unless otherwise agreed in writing by Colin Buchanan and Partners Limited, no other party may copy, reproduce, distribute, make use of, or rely on the contents of the report. No liability is accepted by Colin Buchanan and Partners Limited for any use of this report, other than for the purposes for which it was originally prepared and provided. Opinions and information provided in this report are on the basis of Colin Buchanan and Partners Limited using due skill, care and diligence in the preparation of the same and no explicit warranty is provided as to their accuracy. It should be noted and is expressly stated that no independent verification of any of the documents or information supplied to Colin Buchanan and Partners Limited has been made

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Housing Delivery on Strategic Sites - Research Study

Contents Page 1. INTRODUCTION 1 1.1 Purpose of Report 1 1.2 Scope 1 1.3 Context 1 1.4 Structure 3 2. METHODOLOGY 4 2.1 Introduction 4 2.2 Data Sources 4 2.3 Economics 6 3. DELIVERY OF HOUSING 1980 – 2004 7 3.1 Overview of Completions 7 3.2 Strategic Sites 7 3.3 Analysis 8 3.4 Case Studies 12 3.5 Conclusions 14 4. DELIVERY OF HOUSING UP TO 2021 16 4.1 Supply 16 4.2 Strategic Sites 16 4.3 Potential Trajectory 17 4.4 Achieving RSS14 19 5. ECONOMICS 21 5.2 Infrastructure 21 5.3 Labour Supply 22 6. CONCLUSIONS 23

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1. Introduction

1.1 Purpose of Report

1.1.1 This study was commissioned by Countryside Properties to examine how planned rates of housing growth proposed in draft RSS14 (December 2004) might be best delivered. This research does not contemplate alternative rates of growth (housing targets). Instead it considers how the housing targets and distribution proposed might best be achieved in terms of site size and location and emerging development site areas that are being promoted by developers and local planning authorities.

1.1.2 As such this study collates an evidence base of past housing development within the region, and with regard to strategic sites investigates the length of time required to obtain planning permission and begin construction, the time required to fully develop sites, and maximum delivery rates at specific locations. Results from this analysis are considered in order to identify policy implications for delivery of housing in the future. Finally this study compares this evidence base with emerging allocations and strategy to deliver housing growth proposed in draft RSS14.

1.2 Scope

1.2.1 This study relies upon data supplied to us by local authorities including both district and county councils, East of England Regional Assembly, Government Office for the East of England, and Office of the Deputy Prime Minister. Data sets provided have not been verified. For the purposes of case studies, and gathering information on completions and future allocations, local authorities, county councils and developers/housebuilders have been contacted.

1.3 Context

PPG3: Housing (2000)

1.3.1 Government policy on housing and housing delivery is primarily contained within PPG3. On housing land supply the PPG sets the objective of ensuring that everyone has the opportunity of a decent home and indicates that there should be a greater choice of housing. Further guidance is provided on the manner in which sites should be selected, but this approach does not detract from the primary purpose of seeking to ensure that adequate land is allocated to meet housing needs. One of the roles of the planning system is to ensure that new homes are provided in the right place at the right time (paragraph 3).

1.3.2 Paragraph 28 of PPG3 advises that at the regional level, Regional Planning Guidance (now RSS) should identify major areas of growth in the region and determine where housing provision is sought by local planning authority area. Paragraph 34 advises that it is essential that the operation of the development

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process is not prejudiced by unreal expectations of the developability of sites nor by planning authorities seeking to prioritise sites in an arbitrary manner.

Planning for Housing Provision – Consultation Paper (July 2005)

1.3.3 This paper sets out the Government’s objectives for delivering a better supply of housing through the planning system. A new policy approach is proposed with the overall objective of contributing towards sustainable development and delivering land in the right places. The objective is to meet the need for housing and thereby take better account of the housing market and be responsive to changing circumstances. Key elements of the new approach include assessments of need and demand, ensuring that allocated provisions are evidence-based and the introduction of the need for local authorities to proactively maintain a rolling 5-year supply within a 15 year time horizon.

1.3.4 The Government intends to publish a draft PPS 3 (Housing) in autumn 2005 which will update PPG 3 to reflect this new guidance. Regional planning bodies and local authorities will be expected to follow the new approach as soon as practicable after new draft PPS 3 is published.

1.3.5 The paper identifies that Government policy must narrow the time gap between land being allocated, being given planning permission and being developed. Intervention can take the form of infrastructure provision, remediation activities or compulsory purchase. This can ensure that allocated land will genuinely be available for development. A flexible supply of housing provided through plans forms part of the justification aiming to decrease the time gap. This is particularly important in respect of strategic sites because these procedures are implemented as granting permission more quickly will ensure that the overall contribution of strategic sites will increase.

1.3.6 Within each region the RSS will continue to establish the required overall level of new housing provision. Further guidance on assessing housing needs and market pressure will be published by the Government later in 2005. Housing provision levels are to be based on sub-regional housing market areas, and underpinned by a robust analysis of the housing market, of housing land availability assessments and also sustainability appraisals, having particular regard to environmental and transport considerations. Research and evidence should be developed in partnership with key stakeholders.

1.3.7 Decisions about future levels of housing are based on considerations of the housing market rather than administrative boundaries. Thus, policy will be better equipped to consider affordability and market information on housing need, as well as wider social, economic and environmental issues.

1.3.8 At the local level local, authorities are to allocate land to be delivered over the first 5 years of the plan as well as identifying a further 10 years land supply for future use. Sites within the first 5 year bracket should offer the most sustainable and developable option. The purpose of this approach is to ensure new housing is delivered in accordance with plans and addresses the current shortfall between plans and delivery.

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Other Documents

1.3.9 A number of recent documents provide a context to the issues relating to the delivery and supply of housing and provide the basis on which this study has been undertaken.

1.3.10 The Barker Report (Delivering stability: Securing our Future Housing Needs) which was published in March 2004 has essentially noted that there is no clear relationship between economics and house building and that one of the main constraints to growth in England is the planning system, notably, the lack of allocations or adequate provision of land that is available to be built upon.

1.3.11 In October 2005, Barker commented on additional development proposed in her report. Of the extra 140,000 homes a year which is confined to the south east, less than 2% of available land for this development is anticipated to be used over the next 10 years. This highlights that strategic site allocations need to be rapidly granted permission so that more development can take place. She explains the main obstacle to development is cited as being local opposition. Barker also points out that planning for housing should be informed by the market, not driven by it.

1.3.12 Draft RSS14 also known as the Draft East of England Plan was published in December 2004 and provided housing and employment growth by district and also by sub region. The Governments policies on housing growth, contained within the Communities Plan, following advice from Lord Rooker, were accommodated within the Plan so that increased rates of housing growth were planned to be accommodated within Thames Gateway and also in the London-Stansted-Cambridge-Peterborough growth area.

1.4 Structure

1.4.1 This report is structured as follows:

Chapter 2 – Methodology

Chapter 3 – Delivery of housing 1980 to 2004

Chapter 4 – Delivery of housing up to 2021

Chapter 5 – Economics

Chapter 6 – Conclusions

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2. Methodology

2.1 Introduction

2.1.1 This study has focused on the rate of housing development where strategic sites have been grouped into three categories:

Comprising 1,000 – 1,999 dwellings

Comprising 2,000 or more dwellings

2.1.2 Sites comprising 3,000 or more dwellings were also assessed in as part of formulating for a future housing trajectory.

2.1.3 Data has been collected, firstly for the period 1980 to 2004 (the most recent dwellings completions data set available) and secondly for of the RSS14 plan period 2001 to 2021.

2.1.4 Six case studies from the study area have been examined in further detail to help develop understanding as to how strategic sites have developed as they have.

2.1.5 This study focuses on the East of England, but data has been included on some strategic sites identified but which are located outside of the East of England.

2.2 Data Sources

Strategic Sites – developed and under development

2.2.1 All local development plans and structure plans within the East of England were reviewed. Where possible, old plans were reviewed as well as current and emerging local plans. However, no plans published before 1990 were available. Emerging plans or the technical papers that underpin them were reviewed to identify strategic sites that will be developed (or could be developed) in the period 2001 to 2021.

2.2.2 All county councils and local planning authorities within the East of England region were asked to provide the following information:

1. Strategic housing (or mixed use) developments that have been or are currently developed achieved in the district/borough since 1980? Include any emerging strategic sites that are currently being considered either as a planning application or as an allocation in an emerging local plan.

2. When was the site first allocated in the local plan?

3. When was planning permission granted?

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4. When was the application minded to be approved and when was the s.106 agreement signed?

5. List of land uses and quantum of development (i.e. number of dwellings, employment floor space and other uses)?

6. What rate of housing development has been or is being achieved (in dwellings per annum)?

7. Is the development now built out? Does it match the original planning consent?

2.2.3 This information was requested to authorities via e-mail under the Freedom of Information Act. Next, planning departments were contacted by telephone with follow-up e-mails to request further, more specific, information.

2.2.4 In addition, for identified strategic sites, information was sought on previous land use, proposed mix of uses and future proposals through internet searches. Web sites of councils, house builders and developers as appropriate were reviewed. However, web searches and reviews of developer web sites were generally sparse but did provide some useful background information.

2.2.5 The Eastern Region departments of the Home Builders Federation and English Partnerships were also contacted. The Home Builders Federation were unable to assist in data collection because they do not monitor or keep records of large sites. English Partnerships have not responded.

2.2.6 A Compass search was undertaken of all strategic sites in England which were subject to an inquiry/appeal since 1980. Data on the exact quantum of development sought was not always available and the number amount of inquiries/appeals held on the data base for the period 1980 to the late 1980’s appeared to be limited or incomplete. Nevertheless the number of sites comprising more than a 1,000 dwellings was surprisingly small, 21 in all, of which only 3 were granted planning permission.. Of the 21 sites, 8 comprised sites of more than 2,000 dwellings and only 1 of these was approved. Within the East of England region, the Compass search provided information on 7 sites of which one was approved. The list of Compass sites is set out in Appendix 1.

Strategic Sites – potential permissions and allocations

2.2.7 Data on allocations that will or could be developed within the Draft RSS 14 plan period was collected at the same time as the above information. Most development plans in the Eastern Region, plan for at least part of the forthcoming RSS plan period. Hence, some strategic sites are already allocated and are under development, or are allocated and are planned to commence development in the RSS plan period. For these sites the same information as shown at paragraph 2.2.1 was requested.

2.2.8 For forthcoming sites, i.e. those that need to be allocated in order to meet the new targets in the period to 2021, information is less robust and councils do not have definitive plans upon which they can rely. Advice on potential strategic sites is contained in draft RSS14 and this has proven to be a

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(reasonably sound basis) upon which additional information requests to local planning authorities could be made.

Housing Completions

2.2.9 Housing completions data for all tenures was obtained from the Office for Deputy Prime Minister’s Housing Statistics Department, who were able to provide housing completions data by district by year from 1980. It is noted that the East of England Regional Assembly has housing completions data from 2000 which is different to that supplied by ODPM. The reason why there is a difference appears to be because ODPM data is gross and represents new build only, whereas EERA data is net. Due to the fact that the ODPM data extends back to 1980 it was used for the basis of this study.

2.3 Economics

2.3.1 Historic data on economic performance and on population in England was obtained from Office for Deputy Prime Minister, NOMIS and ONS.

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3. Delivery of housing 1980 – 2004

3.1 Overview of Completions

3.1.1 Annual housing completions by local authority since 1980 is provided in Appendix 2.

3.1.2 A comparison of rates of development with planned rates and also that which is proposed to be developed within Draft RSS14 is provided in Appendix 3. Over the last 25 years, the majority of districts have met planned rates of development. Historic annual completion rates provide crucial figures to demonstrate that those planned within draft RSS14 can be achieved. Over the region, historic annual average rates and planned targets are both approximately 22,000 dwellings per annum. However, in over the last five years completions have averaged approximately 17,000 dwellings per annum. As a result, there is a backlog in housing which has not been built in terms of regional targets. Therefore future rates are required to exceed annual requirements to ensure that the backlog is overcome and RSS14 target achieved.

3.1.3 Appendix 4 provides details of planned development rates sought over the period 1980 to 2005, average allocation site size including the amount of sites and details of actual completion rates.

3.2 Strategic Sites

3.2.1 Appendix 5 provides a table showing details of development of all strategic sites identified, including completions data (where known), details of the main stages in the planning determination process and the build period. Six case studies are provided at the rear of the appendix.

3.2.2 In total 36 strategic sites were identified (including 4 sites located outside of the East of England). For the purposes of examining the historic strategic sites, schemes which have very recently been granted planning permission, and have only up to one year of completions, have been excluded from the analysis. These sites include The Garrison in Colchester and Red Lodge in Forest Heath. Findings with regards time between application submission and first build year (lag time) and development rate can be summarised as follows:

TABLE 1 : SUMMARY OF STRATEGIC SITES (BUILT OR UNDER CONSTRUCTION)

All strategic sites

1,000 to 1,999 dwellings

2,000 to 2,999 dwellings

3,000 dwellings or

more Annual rate Average annual rate of development

188 dwellings pa

101 dwellings pa

189 dwellings pa

330 dwellings pa

Fastest average annual rate 677 324 500 677 Slowest average annual rate 2 3 10 2 Lag time Average time between application submission and first build year

5. years 4.7 years 5 years 5.5 years

Fastest lag time 1 year 1 year 1 years 3 years Slowest lag time 13 years 13 years 11 years 10 years

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0

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Total Completions LA s with sites Strategic sites 1000 - 2000 2000 +

Source: Derived from ODPM completions data and information supplied by East of England Local Authorities Note: Lag time data available for 21 sites.

3.2.3 Of the 32 large sites, only 13 comptised developments of between 1,000 and 1,999 dwellings. 19 sites comprised development of over 2,000 dwellings, of which 10 comprised over 3,000 units. On average lag time is longer for sites greater for larger than smaller sites.

3.2.4 The vast majority of local authorities contacted commented that whilst there were very many residential developments comprising several hundreds of dwellings, development sites comprising more than 1,000 dwellings were rare.

3.3 Analysis

Contribution

3.3.1 Figures 1 and 2 below show the overall contribution of strategic housing development as a proportion of overall housing completions.

FIGURE 1: HOUSING COMPLETIONS IN EAST OF ENGLAND (CUMULATIVE TOTALS)

Source: Derived from ODPM completions data and information supplied by East of England Local Authorities

3.3.2 Figure 1 above shows that in aggregate strategic sites have made only a limited contribution to housing development in the past 25 years within the East of England. Since 1980 the proportion of houses developed on strategic

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Total Completions LA s with Strategic Sites Strategic Sites1000 - 2000 2000 + EERA CompletionsTotal Completions - Line of best fit EERA Completions - Line of best fit

sites to total dwellings built has gradually increased from 4.5% (in 1980) to 8.6% by 2005. Into the future, the level to which strategic sites are proposed to contribute towards total completions is planned to increase (see Figure 3).

FIGURE 2: HOUSING COMPLETIONS IN EAST OF ENGLAND (ANNUAL RATES)

Source: Derived from ODPM and EERA completions data and information supplied by East of England Local Authorities

3.3.3 Figure 2 above shows that in terms of annual rates, the number of dwellings completed per annum fluctuates widely but has generally decreased over time. Overall completions generally range from approximately 500 to 3,000 dwellings. In comparison, the contribution of strategic sites is relatively constant and this indicates that there is no direct relationship between total dwellings completed and those completed on strategic sites. Also the delivery of strategic sites makes a small but constant base contribution to overall levels of new housing stock per annum.

3.3.4 Figure 2 also recognises EERA housing completions. Exact figures have been able to be ascertained from 2001-2003, whereas averages have only been able to be gathered from 1991 onwards. Lines of best fit have been drawn for both ODPM completions and EERA completions which show that overtime completion rates are relatively similar.

3.3.5 Details of completions as a proportion of a total district’s housing development is provided at Appendix 6.

3.3.6 Table 2 below provides an overview of the contribution of strategic sites to local planning authority outputs over various time periods and by strategic site size.

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TABLE 2 : STRATEGIC SITES AND TOTAL COMPLETIONS (ALL LOCAL AUTHORITIES) Period

1980/81 – 1989/90 1990/91 – 2004/5 1980/81 – 2004/5 Total Completions 250,031 288,296 538,327 Strategic site completions 18,101 35,426 53,527 1,000 – 1,999 dwellings 3,543 9,054 12,597 2,000 + dwellings 14,558 26,372 40,930 Proportion of total completions Strategic sites 7% 12% 10% 1,000 – 1,999 dwellings 1% 3% 2% 2,000 + dwellings 6% 9% 8% Source: Derived from ODPM Completions and East of England Local Authorities

3.3.7 Table 3 below shows that local authorities that benefit from strategic sites attain on average, slightly higher rates of completions per annum and that whilst strategic sites can comprise a substantial proportion of the annual average within a particular locality, up to 40% (14% + 26%), the overall contribution over time is only as high as 10% as shown in table 2 above.

TABLE 3 : ANNUAL CONTRIBUTION OF LARGE SITES AND OTHER SITES Period 1980/81 – 1989/90 1990/91 – 2004/5 1980/81 – 2004/5 LA s WITH LARGE SITES No of LA s 11 19 19 Total completions 80,563 143,330 223,893 Average Completions per LA 7,324 7,544 11,784 Annual Average per LA 732 503 471 1,000 – 1,999 dwellings No of LA s 6 9 9 Total completions 3,377 11,209 14,586 Average Completions per LA 563 1,245 1,621 Annual Average per LA 56 83 65 % of Total LA Completions 8% 17% 14% 2,000 + dwellings No of LA s 6 14 14 Total completions 15,063 27,555 42,618 Average Completions per LA 2,511 1,968 3,044 Annual Average per LA 251 131 122 % of Total LA Completions 34% 26% 26% LA s W/O LARGE SITES No of LA s 37 29 29 Total completions 178,412 150,379 328,791 Average Completions per LA 4,822 5,185 11,338 Annual Average per LA 482 346 454 Note: Above annual averages are per local authority who may benefit from 1 or more strategic sites, have annual averages are not per site. Local authorities may benefit from the two size ranges of strategic site. Source: Derived from ODPM Completions data and information supplied by East of England Local Authorities

Impact of Local Plan Allocation

3.3.8 The potential relationship between lag time and development plan status of strategic sites at the time of application submission has been investigated. Due to inaccessibility of previous plans, and an incomplete set of lag times, not all of the sites have been able to be thoroughly investigated. Findings suggest that there is no obvious relationship between local plan allocation and lag time.

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Achieving Planned Development Rates

3.3.9 There is no statistically significant relationship between the standard deviation of site size and those authorities who meet their planned growth targets and those who do not, i.e. local authorities with a broad range of site sizes and those with a limited range of site sizes appear to perform equally well. By examining local authorities with large sites there is a stronger statistical relationship (but not yet statistically significant) between authorities with strategic sites and those who achieve their planned targets, i.e. local authorities who have a strategic site tend to be more likely to achieve their planned rates of growth. It is important that this evidence is not taken out of context. This is because if the latter analysis was undertaken by itself then the conclusion, by itself, would indicate no relationship. Results of this analysis are provided in Appendix 7.

3.3.10 Table 4 below shows the number of local authorities with strategic sites and those without compared with achieving planned rates of growth.

TABLE 4 : LOCAL AUTHORITIES WITH AND WITHOUT STRATEGIC SITES COMPARED WITH PLANNED TARGET RATES OF DEVELOPMENT No of districts with large

sites No of districts without large

sites No of districts who met planned targets 11 21

No of districts who did not meet planned targets 7 9

Source: Derived from ODPM Housing Completions, East of England Local Authorities and Draft RSS14

3.3.11 The results from the table must be read with caution as many local factors govern the rate of development at potential locations such as local housing markets, and location (urban or rural), accessibility (to transport interchanges, jobs and services and facilities).

Locational Analysis

3.3.12 Mapping of annual completions per district and strategic site is provided in Appendix 8. In general the rate of housing development at strategic sites is slower in the period 1991 to 2005 than the period 1980 to 1990.

3.3.13 Appendices 8.1-8.3 illustrate that the majority of strategic sites in the East of England are located within the London-Stansted-Cambridge-Peterborough (LSCP) Growth Area / M11 Corridor and within Essex. The rates of delivery of strategic sites is not related to overall rates of housing delivery by district.

3.3.14 Appendices 8.4-8.6 show district totals excluding strategic site contributions. They highlight that even without strategic sites the variation between annual rates throughout the East of England is similar to the rates including strategic sites. Most significantly, they show that high completion rates have been achieved without strategic sites.

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Impact of Environmental Assessment

3.3.15 Environmental issues have become increasingly complex and methods have been developed to measure the impacts of development. Cost benefit analysis evolved into environmental assessment (EA) which was first introduced into the British planning system in 1985 through an EC Directive. An EA is undertaken for major development projects, including large housing sites, and assesses a range of qualitative and quantitative impacts that the development will have on the environment. As a result, the undertaking of the various EA procedures has had the effect of lengthening the planning process for strategic sites, particularly the lag time.

3.4 Case Studies

3.4.1 Six schemes have been investigated in detail to generate a clearer understanding of into the development processes involved in developing a strategic housing site. The case studies comprise the following schemes:

Cambourne, South Cambridgeshire

Chafford Hundred, Thurrock

Church Langley, Harlow

Grange Farm, Suffolk Coastal

Hampton Southern Township, Peterborough

The Wick, Basildon

3.4.2 Each case study is discussed in detail in Appendix 5. These schemes have been selected because they represent a broad range of types, sizes and locations within the context of the full list of strategic sites. They also cover a wide timescale and are at different construction stages. All sites, apart from Chafford Hundred which started in 1988, started during the 1990s. Selecting recent sites ensures site records are more accessible and enables case officers or developers who actually worked, or are still working, on the sites to be contacted, thus presenting an accurate and up-to-date understanding of each development.

3.4.3 Figure 3 below shows completion rates of each case study. It highlights that the sites have developed in a similar way. Apart from Grange Farm, the five remaining sites tend to start slowly and then rise and fluctuate over the course of development. All of the sites have included a broad mix of uses. All sites comprise a range of physical infrastructure as well as retail and employment uses, and healthcare, education, community and open space services and facilities.

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Cambourne Chafford hundred Church Langley Hampton Grange Farm The Wick

FIGURE 3: COMPLETION RATES OF CASE STUDIES

Source: Derived from ODPM completions data and information supplied by East of England Local Authorities

3.4.4 Strategic sites receive outline planning permission granting the overall development of the site. The site is then sub-divided into smaller plots of land which are released over the development period. These plots are then sold of off to a number of house builders who develop individual parcels of land.

Factors Affecting Rate of Development

3.4.5 Analysis of case studies highlights each scheme is different from the other and that there are a range of factors which affect the pace at which a strategic site can develop. The degree in which an individual factor occurs as well as the number of factors occurring varies. Case studies identify factors, as set out below, which affect delivery, and need to be considered as they can either speed up or slow down the development process:

Joint working – partnership between local authorities, the Government and developers/housebuilders is crucial to ensure effective and efficient delivery;

Site conditions – environmental issues, site remediation;

Local market – demand for and supply of local housing;

Residential density – higher densities lead to increased completions rates;

Type of developer / house builder – national organisations can build at faster rates than local firms. Having a variety of house builders who have different markets (products) will enable faster rates of development to be achieved;

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Land owner – rate at which the landowner releases land to housing market. Faster rate of release will lead to more completions;

Level of guidance – clear design and master planning concepts and principles that are adopted by all parties;

Quality of design – sub-standard design submissions require substantial revision and negotiation;

Changes to proposals – re-submission of proposals due to site being developed over a considerable period of time and changing circumstances;

Infrastructure requirements – physical and social infrastructure such as roads, services and facilities maybe required to be implemented before residential development can commence; and,

Section 106 agreements – negotiations between development and the local Council and other parties can slow down the development process.

3.4.6 From the consultants own experience, there is evidence to suggest that given suitable site shape and size and if there are no infrastructure constraints then multiple parts of sites can be commenced at the same time, thereby increasing rates of delivery.

3.5 Conclusions

3.5.1 Whilst strategic sites can provide a valuable contribution towards meeting housing targets and help achieve higher rates of growth, they cannot be relied upon to achieve higher or increased rates of housing growth over time. Their contribution has historically only achieved an average of 10% of housing completions over 1980-2005. There appears to be no statistically significant relationship between districts who have met their planned growth targets and those who have not, and the existence of strategic sites. The contribution of strategic sites to housing stock is relatively constant whereas the contribution of small sites (less than 1,000 dwellings) fluctuates widely. This shows that strategic sites provides a small but important base contribution to the housing stock per annum.

3.5.2 The overall rate of development that has historically been achieved from strategic sites overall is only as high as 200 dwellings per annum for individual sites. This is the average that has been achieved since 1980 in the region.

3.5.3 Locational analysis indicates that the delivery rates of strategic sites tends not to be related to completion rates of districts in which they are situated. Completion rates on strategic sites has generally decreased over time except those sites being delivered at faster rates in the LSCP Growth Area.

3.5.4 Interestingly, sites of between 1,000 and 1,999 dwellings have made a limited contribution towards overall development and have also been developed at much slower rates than larger developments. This may be reflective of the scale of investment required to service larger developments and the ability of larger developments (comprising 2,000 of more dwellings) to offset these costs, or to secure better investment.

3.5.5 The average time between application submission and the first year of build is 5 years. Local plan allocation does not directly affect lag time.

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3.5.6 The Compass search (see paragraph 2.2.7) yielded very few strategic sites that were subject to any form of inquiry indicating that strategic sites tend to have the support of the planning system. This also indicates that generally planning authorities handle strategic sites differently. Due to the size and complex nature of such schemes, pre-application discussions are expected to have occurred, authorities would also secure missing information and seek to resolve issues to enable planning permission to be granted. Therefore, as a result of this time and cost preparing the application developers are unlikely to appeal. It also indicates the willingness of the developers to ensure that applications are supported by all relevant and necessary information.

3.5.7 The main finding from the six case studies is that each strategic site is different from the next. In general, sites appear to develop in a similar manner in that production rates gradually increase and then fluctuate over the course of development. However, all sites vary in that the rate of development and lag time is affected by a range of factors which can occur throughout the planning process. The degree to which these factors impact lag time and production rates can be influenced by the Government, local planning authorities and developers.

3.5.8 It is not clear what the effect of the new planning system will have on the average lag time (the time between application and submission). However, given the need for pre-application discussions and the need to support strategic applications with rigorous and comprehensive information and the complexity of securing on-site and off-site improvements, including provision of infrastructure (community, social, utilities and transport) it is difficult to envisage that the time between an allocation in a local development framework and first year of build reducing. It does not seem to be sensible to assume that any speeding up of the planning process, on the basis that issues are complex and ramifications are potentially considerable.

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4. Delivery of housing up to 2021

4.1 Supply

4.1.1 Appendix 9 provides an overview of housing land completions and commitments for the forthcoming RSS14 plan period. The information has been provided by the East of England Regional Assembly (EERA).

4.1.2 Table 5 below provides an overview of the amount of land that is needed to be found by 2021 by locality.

TABLE 5 : LAND SUPPLY FOR RSS 14 PLAN PERIOD (2001-2021)

County/Unitary Draft RSS Target (total)

Commitments plus completions Residual

Peterborough 21,200 14,461 6,739 Cambridgeshire 68,100 60,028 8,072 Suffolk 58,600 35,407 23,193 Essex (inc UAs) 123,400 54,641 68,759 Hertfordshire 79,600 34,164 45,436 Norfolk 72,600 35,438 37,162 TOTAL 423,500 234,139 189,361

Source: Derived from draft RSS 14 and EERA

4.1.3 Appendix 10 provides a breakdown of previously developed land that is considered to be available for residential development. This information was provided by the ODPM. The residual element comprises both greenfield and brownfield land. Assuming sites are constructed at 35 dwellings per hectare, analysis of Appendix 10 shows that approximately 128,450 units could be built on previously developed land. This equates 68% of the total residual set out in Table 5.

4.2 Strategic Sites

4.2.1 Appendix 11 provides a list of all strategic sites that are either currently under development, are committed or otherwise being contemplated by local planning authorities.. Taking into account strategic sites that are currently being developed (as identified in the previous chapter) and the number of strategic sites that are proposed to be developed in the forthcoming plan period, the total capacity of these sites is, as follows:

TABLE 6 : CAPACITY OF EXISTING AND FUTURE STRATEGIC SITES (FROM 2001)

Cumulative capacity Strategic sites in which construction ended 2001-2005 3,292 Strategic site completions ongoing (beyond 2005) 2001-2005 6,213 Strategic Sites under construction 2005 onwards 14,004 Strategic Sites committed in Local Plans / Identified in RSS14 at 2005 75,440 TOTAL 98,949 Draft RSS 14 Target 478,000 Remainder 379,051 Potential contribution of strategic sites assuming fully developed by 2021 22%

Source: Derived from East of England Planning Authorities, Local Plans and draft RSS 14 Note: Target for draft RSS14 excludes MKSM SRS elements of growth, which if included would increase the RSS 14 target and also the amount of proposed strategic sites.

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4.2.2 There are a total of 25 strategic large sites which have yet to obtain planning permission and are being relied upon to be delivered in the period to 2021. Average site size is greater that 3,000 dwellings.

4.2.3 2% of the RSS target has already been achieved over the period 2001-2005. This Given the current draft RSS dwelling target for the remaining period strategic sites could provide approximately 22% of the remaining target. This is substantially higher (double) than has been achieved in the past. This shows the relatively greater importance and larger contribution that strategic sites are planned to have in the future on overall house building.

4.3 Potential Trajectory

4.3.1 Taking into account commitments, strategic sites under development and estimated development of identified strategic sites, an estimate of the total contribution of strategic housing sites can make to RSS14 targets is provided in Appendix 12.

4.3.2 Estimates as to when strategic sites might commence development are based on our estimates of when an application might be made. Average lag time and average completion rate are based on historical performance (see chapter 3 of this study). Trajectory assumptions are set out in table 7 below.

TABLE 7 : LAG TIME AND ANNUAL RATE TRAJECTORY ASSUMPTIONS Site Capacity Lag Time Annual Completion Rate 1000-1999 dwellings 4 years 200 2000-2999 dwellings 5 years 250 3000 + dwellings 5 years 350

4.3.3 Figures 4 and 5 show potential housing land supply trajectories comparing regional targets with future housing supply on strategic sites.

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FIGURE 4 : HOUSING TRAJECTORY FOR EAST OF ENGLAND AND CONTRIBUTION OF STRATEGIC SITES (POTENTIAL AND ACHIEVED) (CUMULATIVE TOTALS) 2001-2021

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

350000

400000

450000

500000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

Year

Num

ber o

f dw

ellin

gs

Cumulative dRRS14 Target Target of LAs with S sites Cumulative Supply Supply - under development Supply - not started

Source: East of England Planning Authorities, Local Plans and draft RSS14.

4.3.4 Applying these lag times and completion rates shows that strategic sites have the potential to contribute 72,989 dwellings in the plan period covering 2001-2021. This equates 15% of the total target and this level of contribution higher that the 10% which has been achieved historically. This figure is still significantly lower than the 22% which is targeted. Higher rate trajectories are set out in Figures 6 and 6 below.

4.3.5 Figure 4 shows a steadily increasing supply of new housing development can be anticipated from strategic sites. This is a similar pattern of contribution of strategic sites to housing targets as was achieved in the period 1980 – 2004. Sites which do not yet have planning permission will only begin to make a significant contribution from 2012/13.

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FIGURE 5 : TARGET HOUSING TRAJECTORY FOR EAST OF ENGLAND (ANNUAL RATES) 2001-2021

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

Year

Num

ber o

f dw

ellin

gs

Annual dRSS14 Target Target of LAs with S sites Annual SupplyAnnual Supply inc other sites Supply sites - under development Supply sites - not startedContribution of other sites

Source: East of England Planning Authorities, Local Plans and draft RSS14. 4.3.6 Figure 5 shows that the delivery of future strategic sites peaks at

approximately 6,000 per annum in the period 2013 – 2016.

4.3.7 Appendix 13 provides the table which underpins the above trajectories and shows where districts, through development of strategic sites alone, are assumed to exceed annual housing targets for individual districts as currently set out in draft RSS14. This occurs within Cambridge City, Harlow, Stevenage and Welwyn Hatfield. This pattern has occurred in the past. It should be noted that these sites are set out in RSS14, and that further strategic sites could be brought forward in the future.

4.4 Achieving RSS14

4.4.1 This section investigates what would need to occur to achieve RSS14 housing targets. A range of scenarios involving changes to lag time and completion rates have been tested.

4.4.2 Table 8 below examines what might occur if alternative rates of development were achieved. Even under the scenario when rates of development are increased up to 700 dwellings per annum the overall contribution of strategic sites currently required by draft RSS9 is not achieved.

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TABLE 8 : HIGHER ANNUAL RATE SCENARIOS OVER 2001-2021 (5 year lag time)

Annual completion rate

Total completed dwellings on strategic

sites

% of strategic sites % of RSS 14 target

200 60,809 59 13 300 70,409 68 15 400 75,849 74 16 500 79,549 78 17 600 83,249 82 18 700 85,749 85 19

Source: Derived from East of England Planning Authorities, Local Plans and draft RSS 14

4.4.3 Table 9 below is similar to table 8 however lag time has been decreased to 3 years, as opposed to 5 years.

TABLE 9 : HIGHER ANNUAL RATE SCENARIOS OVER 2001-2021 (3 year lag time)

Annual completion rate

Total completed dwellings on strategic

sites

% of strategic sites % of RSS 14 target

200 65,259 63 14 300 74,799 72 16 400 80,299 77 17 500 85,199 82 18 600 89,699 86 19 700 94,199 91 20

Source: Derived from East of England Planning Authorities, Local Plans and draft RSS 14

4.4.4 The table above shows that increasing the contribution of strategic sites to meet draft RSS14 target requires the simultaneous action of (i) decreasing the period between planning application being submitted and planning permission being granted and homes built; and, (ii) a substantial increase in completion rates of those sites. Achieving both is entirely unrealistic given historic performance. Notably, achieving very high rates of development is likely to be undesirable.

4.4.5 It is not assumed that lag times will be reduced as the new planning system frontloads the process, so that whilst determination of applications may occur quicker, the actual process of preparing proposals and supporting documentation (including undertaking consultation) before submission has been lengthened. There is no evidence to suggest the new planning system will achieve an overall reduction in the time required to bring sites forward for development will reduce. There is no evidence to suggest that the process will be faster than it has been historically. See also paragraph 3.5.8.

4.4.6 Analysis shows that it is the number of sites which constrains the contribution towards total supply. No evidence suggests that concentrations of strategic sites affects the market and thus supply. Doubling the number of strategic sites would double the contribution that the sites can make towards supply.

4.4.7 Overall, if contribution of strategic sites is to be increased the number of sites should be increased. This is the only realistic mechanism to meet RSS14 targets.

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5. Economics 5.1.1 The Barker Review of Housing Supply, Interim Report 2003 examined the link

between housing supply, demand and prices. As house prices rise one would expect housing supply to increase. This has tended to be the case in most European countries and previously in the UK. However, over the last decade the relationship between house prices and housing supply has broken down. Over this period as house prices have risen, the number of dwellings completed per annum decreased. Markedly in the early 1990’s and in comparison to historic rates. Note these figures relate to the UK.

5.1.2 The relationship between between house building and a wide range of economic indicators has been investigated. This has included GDP, real interest rates, earnings, saving ratios, unemployment levels, GDP differentials in the UK vis a vis Europe (migration impacts). The analysis has included an assessment of house building against these economic variables singly, in combination and by lagging data by up to 5 years, absolute values and in terms of annual changes.

5.1.3 In all cases there is no statistically robust relationship between either the annual volume or the rate of change of house building and any economic variable.

5.1.4 It is apparent that the factors driving house building are not principally economic but relate to a whole range of other factors. The Barker Review highlighted that land supply issues were the main factors driving house building. These factors related to an unwillingness to build out large sites quickly in order to reduce risk, the complex nature of sites (especially brownfield), land ownership and land assembly problems, the planning system and the political problems associated with land use issues i.e. nimbyism.

5.2 Infrastructure

5.2.1 The East of England Regional Assembly has a standing objection to the proposed levels of housing proposed to be developed as part of Draft RSS14, on the basis that insufficient infrastructure exists or is proposed to be introduced to ensure that new development is sustainable. This infrastructure shortage pertains not only to transport infrastructure but also to other types of infrastructure.

5.2.2 Notably, anecdotal evidence from Kent Council indicates that whilst land is available to be developed and has planning permission to be built, development cannot take place until key infrastructure has been put in place to support the new communities. This issue is, for example, preventing continued growth at Ashford.

5.2.3 Strategic sites, economically, able to provide a wider range of infrastructure, including strategic infrastructure than brownfield sites. Strategic sites can also accommodate new facilities, which are required as part of the scheme or needed as part of the overall growth of a settlement, such as medical centres, schools, retail centres, formal open space and leisure and community facilities.

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5.3 Labour Supply

5.3.1 Previous studies by Colin Buchanan have assessed the availability of labour supply in the London-Stansted-Cambridge-Peterborough Growth Area and considered whether it would be a constraint to development.

5.3.2 The results from that work suggest that house builders and developers do not consider that labour supply would constrain growth. By confirming growth levels and ensuring an even rate of development then volume house builders could respond to an increase in rate of development. Confirming RSS14 would be an important first step in this process.

5.3.3 It is not clear what the ramifications of the successful bid to stage the 2012 Olympics will have on the capacity of the construction industry, but there are already increasing concerns indicating that development capacity may be directed towards this national development at the expense of other areas.

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6. Conclusions 6.1.1 Historically rates of strategic site development is 200 per annum. Further

analysis highlights that completion rates increase for larger sites. Sites with 2,000 - 2,999 units have the potential to develop up to 250 dwellings per annum, and sites with 3,000+ units at 350 dwellings per annum.

6.1.2 Lag time is approximately 5 years. The recent Government consultation paper Planning for Housing Provision identifies that this time gap needs to be shortened. It is not clear how this is to be achieved. The requirement for provision of appropriate supporting documentation and evidence and also the need to ensure community consultation is meaningful and appropriate appears to conflict with this objective.

6.1.3 Case studies show that rate of development and lag time can be affected by a range of factors. The degree to which these factors impact lag time and production rates can be influenced by the Government, local planning authorities and developers.

6.1.4 Strategic sites are an important part of the formulae to achieving high rates of growth but are not the entire solution. Completions achieved by strategic sites has historically represented a small but important contribution, equating approximately 15% of total completions.

6.1.5 Draft RSS14 requires the delivery of all strategic sites by 2021. Our evidence shows that it is highly unlikely that much more than two thirds of the capacity of strategic sites within the East of England will be developed in the period to 2021; these sites will continue to contribute for the ensuing period.

6.1.6 Meeting the draft RSS14 strategic sites target requires identification, allocation and development of more strategic sites. Put simply, to meet the strategic sites target identified within draft RSS14 requires allocation of a third more strategic sites than are currently identified.

6.1.7 Strategic sites can contribute towards infrastructure required to serve the new community and help create a sustainable environment. It is important that greenfield land is brought forward in tandem with brownfield land because of the limited contribution that brownfield land is likely to be able to make towards strategic infrastructure. In any event urban capacity sites is believed to be a diminishing supply.

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Appendix 1: Compass Site Search 1980 – 2004

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Appendix 1: COMPASS Strategic Sites 1980 - 2004

Ref Aurthority Site Outcome Date Proposal11 Vale Royal Winnington Island Dismissed 2004 1200 dwelling38 Gloucester Land at former RAF Quedgeley Allowed 2003 2650 dwellings39 Cherwell Former RAF Upper Heyford Dismissed 2003 1000 dwellings83 Rotherham Land off Wentworth Road / Brook Hill Dismissed 2001 1200 dwellings95 Wokingham S/o M4 Reading / Grazeley Dismissed 2001 2500 dwellings156 Redditch Brockhill Allowed 1994 1300 dwellings163 Stevenage / North Herts NE of Stevenage Allowed 1993 1600 dwellings167 Tewkesbury L/o Ashchurch Road / Gloucester Road Deferred 1993 1054 dwellings171 Ashford Conscience Farm Dismissed 1992 1500 dwellings178 New Forest A36 Totton Dismissed 1992 1000 dwellings184 South Cambridgeshire Great Common Farm / Hare Park / Scotland Park / Bourne Airfield / Allington Dismissed 1992 3000 dwellings186 South Cambridgeshire Chittering / Waterfenton / Denny / Westmere Dismissed 1991 1500 - 3000 dwellings188 Kingswood / Northavon Emersons Green Allowed / Dismissed 1991 3000 + dwellings189 Castle Point Northwick Road, Canvey Island Dismissed 1991 4320 dwellings192 Mid Bedfordshire E/o Bedford Road Dismissed 1991 1200 dwellings208 Charnwood Wymeswold Airfield Dismissed 1990 2200 dwellings223 Stevenage / East Herts E/o Gresley Way Dismissed 1989 83 acres234 Hart Land E/o Eversley Centre Dismissed 1989 2150 dwellings242 Stevenage Weston Road and Land at Stevenagebury Dismissed 1989 2000 dwellings273 Fylde Kirkham Camp adj A583 / Kirkham Road Dismissed 1983 1350 dwellings274 Surrey Heath Lucas Green Road / Brentmoor Road Dismissed 1983 138 acres

Summary21 sites in total3 allowed = 14%

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Appendix 2: ODPM Housing Completions 1980/1 – 2004/5

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Appendix 2: ODPM Housing Completions 1990 - 2005

11 6 6 19 9 14

1000+ (19801990)

1000-1999 (1980-1990)

2000+ (19801990)

1000+ (19902005)

1000-1999 (1990-2005)

2000+ (19902005)

Draft RSS14 Annual average

Average Annual (1980-

1990)

Average Annual (1990-

2005)

Average Annual (1980-

2005)1980/81 1981/82 1982/83 1983/84 1984/85 1985/86 1986/87 1987/88 1988/89 1989/90 1990/91 1991/92 1992/93 1993/94 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/00 2000/01 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 Total

Bedfordshire and Luton 1726 2411 1533 2101 2221 1806 2195 2013 2335 3174 2308 2625 3252 2185 2664 2221 2280 2964 1985 1752 1757 1747 1545 1228 1437 1453 1662 1695 2021 52525Bedford 42 514 526 521 609 379 379 649 521 867 366 359 569 440 275 379 601 871 582 453 456 427 646 544 548 408 611 478 606 13023Mid Bedfordshire 414 545 637 600 616 468 526 533 623 556 579 509 567 470 892 590 691 693 665 774 670 842 605 216 523 452 652 756 531 14999South Bedfordshire 80 459 371 406 505 262 418 416 514 434 624 424 596 392 481 443 445 576 547 265 253 323 266 272 322 333 129 313 593 10146Luton Borough 1190 894 361 574 491 697 872 415 677 1317 739 1333 1520 883 1016 809 543 824 191 260 378 155 28 196 44 260 270 148 291 14357

Cambridgeshire and Peterborough 4465 4744 3029 3715 4317 4241 3940 4181 4491 4233 4502 5659 6270 5602 4213 3697 2894 3124 2799 2685 3168 3539 2735 2736 2179 2420 2704 3163 3377 92869Fenland 505 553 524 536 416 312 342 506 517 371 504 728 969 862 735 759 781 586 500 415 279 425 512 389 374 325 597 570 617 13391Peterborough UA 1060 1471 553 920 1774 1844 1535 1333 1232 1123 1172 1855 1626 1213 1050 866 417 499 430 279 546 395 485 562 341 400 511 696 824 23008Huntingdonshire 560 1094 657 832 1020 770 688 886 1085 1090 1238 1288 1348 1527 870 797 651 744 726 856 973 851 611 650 442 490 468 370 354 20793East Cambridgeshire 430 373 429 407 163 202 181 235 378 358 412 533 721 543 654 602 419 331 470 472 464 469 348 302 255 411 404 528 308 10163South Cambridgeshire 1175 823 582 679 565 526 731 789 788 902 820 948 1214 951 548 399 364 372 448 448 513 1107 673 703 625 664 537 571 758 16964Cambridge city 735 430 283 342 379 587 463 432 491 389 356 307 392 506 356 274 262 592 225 215 393 292 106 130 142 130 187 428 516 8550

Essex, Southend and Thurrock 6170 7460 5714 6412 7847 5524 6398 7225 6808 7168 8686 8857 9120 6964 5815 5350 5081 5346 6632 6314 6839 6685 6147 6460 4534 4384 5949 5119 5060 160312Basildon 535 1504 810 1088 2023 1464 1840 1980 1258 1423 1235 1779 1330 712 701 578 682 962 1115 1221 1372 1163 1181 1169 685 404 256 312 352 27197Braintree 385 700 618 651 538 317 713 646 640 739 647 792 1460 509 378 443 217 230 511 624 1208 954 741 686 487 396 1176 547 675 16274Brentwood 145 215 133 166 98 173 163 129 188 181 414 281 363 163 263 109 90 169 154 63 220 14 93 99 5 53 210 241 205 4141Castle Point 200 231 154 184 171 236 240 216 247 189 237 361 204 205 187 141 301 171 271 183 141 182 134 128 82 75 92 73 145 4612Chelmsford 700 1087 557 769 836 596 935 824 1197 1135 1896 1296 1146 1011 641 437 559 546 655 356 297 362 460 514 542 519 838 863 764 19225Colchester 855 733 697 711 586 381 613 686 622 831 831 735 1015 1029 650 986 575 741 638 575 549 657 672 604 466 533 851 1110 850 17786Epping Forest 550 307 320 315 137 265 303 433 409 334 340 383 299 169 190 400 229 369 386 526 348 225 157 349 301 364 350 223 383 7872Harlow 400 173 325 264 278 320 56 101 69 152 301 264 55 136 92 162 346 272 456 558 502 658 566 536 237 194 145 59 89 6604Maldon 120 310 197 242 394 269 234 365 277 263 279 394 302 327 231 58 146 166 169 192 246 260 334 389 285 143 105 117 116 6061Rochford 230 326 253 282 519 404 276 381 298 168 209 451 330 220 121 277 323 317 320 266 417 262 382 351 180 151 144 191 93 7051Southend UA 300 452 241 326 776 280 248 470 443 471 426 319 262 829 386 381 448 346 317 205 218 230 148 209 102 82 142 134 269 8141Tendring 425 676 358 485 700 539 353 296 259 376 1064 1228 1239 707 683 421 312 308 444 407 335 348 322 344 352 437 388 145 119 12126Thurrock UA 925 483 786 665 325 116 261 582 660 539 504 285 840 721 896 776 660 526 785 804 852 1129 669 803 611 824 971 819 668 16626Uttlesford 400 261 266 264 466 164 163 116 241 367 303 289 275 226 396 181 193 223 411 334 134 241 288 279 199 209 281 285 332 6596

Hertfordshire 3980 4228 3036 3513 4579 3300 3910 4166 4946 4307 4453 4365 4780 3471 2949 2819 3181 3429 3962 3801 3963 3178 2584 2835 2426 2196 1919 2961 3342 87822Broxbourne 255 376 334 351 218 269 399 532 515 350 470 259 501 251 283 308 360 267 135 317 309 437 455 520 399 222 143 229 631 8779Dacorum 315 560 340 428 953 591 734 444 677 569 285 363 532 453 692 422 479 292 447 366 246 236 226 97 302 213 208 626 244 10697East Hertfordshire 1040 679 494 568 586 393 667 672 1048 867 829 872 599 258 471 362 296 636 818 726 771 758 402 367 475 433 340 237 318 14201Hertsmere 210 327 267 291 214 158 167 187 490 572 560 248 467 209 121 219 376 412 472 290 162 394 392 275 246 156 101 176 208 7272North Hertfordshire 790 579 303 413 407 311 466 677 390 748 653 573 697 863 485 355 442 473 394 332 308 390 147 274 228 263 252 161 47 10336St Albans 350 455 301 363 505 743 622 494 466 53 171 500 692 307 186 279 350 316 347 358 356 228 241 473 289 201 262 205 429 9073Stevenage 320 343 284 308 537 238 281 187 336 359 233 383 395 480 253 189 307 478 426 566 381 344 267 281 214 216 105 50 185 7691Three Rivers 180 272 165 208 456 131 202 227 295 244 302 470 258 132 69 21 53 124 151 206 276 198 255 285 59 388 150 143 100 5195Watford 230 183 243 219 172 199 97 179 129 203 355 182 146 164 95 258 246 238 396 407 912 84 64 99 49 49 110 269 362 5464Welwyn Hatfield 290 454 305 365 531 267 275 567 600 342 595 515 493 354 294 406 272 193 376 233 242 109 135 164 165 55 248 865 818 9114

Norfolk 3630 3793 3390 3551 3663 2719 2223 3617 4135 3956 4688 4412 4818 3702 3727 4077 4253 4238 3850 3772 3246 3526 3736 2730 2458 2617 2707 2772 3139 88781Breckland 760 601 646 628 411 244 289 350 733 1070 887 543 873 612 717 886 675 626 485 704 529 568 677 545 513 644 754 638 735 15708Broadland 610 616 679 654 438 361 370 579 630 400 656 1121 868 739 590 928 897 918 851 770 889 900 862 638 569 422 340 321 289 16346Great Yarmouth 300 419 254 320 451 160 288 361 522 458 371 591 630 355 288 358 324 249 311 283 194 251 295 275 164 168 132 196 328 8003King's Lynn&West Norfolk 550 697 611 645 553 511 313 705 768 761 1272 842 876 373 760 505 1069 778 843 665 561 695 667 360 390 362 327 519 657 16132North Norfolk 320 517 435 468 575 373 205 660 547 509 500 532 659 607 501 582 490 665 784 494 528 453 382 273 308 202 186 369 305 11689Norwich 530 385 304 336 993 346 159 386 431 264 482 247 213 329 323 118 213 194 106 389 179 176 297 154 256 425 502 522 700 8404South Norfolk 560 558 461 500 242 724 599 576 504 494 520 536 699 687 548 700 585 808 470 467 366 483 556 485 258 394 466 207 125 12499

Suffolk 2930 3262 2517 2815 3852 2575 2560 3051 3457 2981 3760 3686 3254 3442 3386 3362 2574 2640 2525 2741 2294 2318 1894 2288 2590 2242 2195 2355 2353 70375Babergh 260 481 278 359 375 394 424 545 387 407 539 707 642 385 266 375 318 278 284 267 269 338 159 278 382 186 426 197 143 8971Forest Heath 320 325 185 241 662 152 172 288 357 319 341 328 283 352 319 462 222 217 258 240 109 90 108 107 214 150 62 54 164 6030Ipswich 770 345 265 297 780 245 276 339 356 231 331 362 284 248 137 198 254 238 180 228 169 170 61 222 401 379 311 431 603 7434Mid Suffolk 385 515 386 438 387 173 201 210 925 527 662 546 658 864 425 459 428 370 385 413 428 582 363 327 378 303 264 324 345 10947St Edmundsbury 400 393 459 433 272 331 229 366 466 366 506 487 433 469 477 503 480 569 381 523 568 558 412 466 456 424 310 443 322 10817Suffolk Coastal 505 650 553 592 566 966 687 755 416 434 836 806 519 517 1050 880 557 600 572 624 444 348 498 536 328 389 484 539 441 14792Waveney 290 553 390 455 810 314 571 548 550 697 545 450 435 607 712 485 315 368 465 446 307 232 293 352 431 411 338 367 335 11384

East of England 22901 25898 19220 22107 26479 20165 21226 24253 26172 25819 28397 29604 31494 25366 22754 21526 20263 21741 21753 21065 21267 20993 18641 18277 15624 15312 17136 18065 19292 5526841980 - 1990 258975 1990 - 2005 293709

LA s 1000+ over 1980/90 #VALUE! 7850 8056.3 6141.866667 6907.64 7133 6414 6916 7107 7812 8065 8191 9957 10623 8345 7701 7539 5600 6765 6329 6607 7559 7049 5647 5789 4433 4787 5826 5280 52171980 - 1990 80563 1990 - 2005 92128

LA s 1000-1999 over 1980/90 #VALUE! 4105 4327 3093 3586 3610 2776 3591 3385 4416 4772 4342 5789 6190 4396 3578 3528 2911 3830 3523 3802 4600 3962 2911 2818 2231 2217 2699 1673 2112 896621980 - 1990 43267 1990 - 2005 46395

LA s 2000+ over 1980/90 #VALUE! 5040 4590 3536 3957.6 3886 3730 3880 3961 4287 4576 4408 5816 6302 5054 4679 4868 3572 4077 3276 3211 3782 3794 3128 3269 2487 2863 3253 3537 3244 989401980 - 1990 45900 1990 - 2005 53040

LA s 1000+ over 1990/05 #VALUE! 12910 13283 9555 11046 13019 10307 11658 12500 12711 13365 14325 15983 16117 12846 10995 10255 8712 10044 10364 10317 11096 11249 9158 9650 7515 7474 8694 8827 89801980 - 1990 132831 1990 - 2005 143330

LA s 1000-1999 over 1990/05 #VALUE! 5975 6020 4181 4917 5692 3781 4965 4664 6210 6505 6872 7736 7895 5881 4752 4344 3917 4837 4769 4720 5200 4735 3720 3833 3373 3324 4129 3252 38111980 - 1990 60201 1990 - 2005 62716

LA s 2000+ over 1990/05 #VALUE! 9755 10204 7255 8435 9629 8418 9151 9841 9341 10071 10977 12380 12151 10078 8743 8274 7101 7973 7718 7549 7841 8275 7055 7446 5511 5567 6118 6957 66981980 - 1990 102037 1990 - 2005 108826

LA s 1000+ over 1980/05 7133 6414 6916 7107 7812 8065 8191 9957 10623 8345 10995 10255 8712 10044 10364 10317 11096 11249 9158 9650 7515 7474 8694 8827 8980

LA s without large sites 1980/90 19346 13751 14310 17146 18360 17754 20206 19647 20871 17021178412

LA s without large sites 1990/05 11759 11271 11551 11697 11389 10748 10171 9744 9483 8627 8109 7838 8442 9238 10312

Area

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Appendix 3: Completions compared with previous and proposed planned rates (draft RSS14)

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Appendix 3: Completions compared with previous planned rates and proposed planned rates (draft RSS14)

1980-2005

1990-2005

1980-1990

1980-1990

1990-2005

1980-2005

Bedfordshire and Luton* 535 2465 1517 1533 1527 -992 -998 -982 948 932 938Bedford 42 810 514 526 521 -479 -484 -472 296 284 289Mid Bedfordshire 414 905 545 637 600 -186 -223 -131 360 268 305South Bedfordshire 80 440 459 371 406 -326 -291 -379 -19 69 34Luton Borough 310 894 361 574 -574 -361 -894 -584 -51 -264

Cambridgeshire and Peterborough 4465 3653 4744 3029 3715 750 1436 -279 -1090 624 -61 Fenland 505 680 553 524 536 -31 -19 -48 127 156 144Peterborough UA 1060 653 1471 553 920 140 507 -411 -817 100 -267 Huntingdonshire 560 820 1094 657 832 -272 -97 -534 -274 163 -12 East Cambridgeshire 430 500 373 429 407 23 1 57 127 71 93South Cambridgeshire 1175 753 823 582 679 496 593 352 -70 171 75Cambridge city 735 247 430 283 342 393 452 305 -184 -37 -95

Essex, Southend and Thurrock 6170 5263 7460 5714 6412 -242 456 -1290 -2196 -451 -1149 Basildon 535 599 1504 810 1088 -553 -275 -969 -905 -211 -489 Braintree 385 633 700 618 651 -266 -233 -315 -67 15 -18 Brentwood 145 111 215 133 166 -21 12 -70 -104 -21 -54 Castle Point 200 157 231 154 184 16 46 -31 -73 4 -27 Chelmsford 700 711 1087 557 769 -69 143 -387 -376 154 -58 Colchester 855 712 733 697 711 144 158 122 -21 15 1Epping Forest 550 193 307 320 315 235 230 243 -114 -127 -122 Harlow 400 358 173 325 264 136 75 227 185 33 94Maldon 120 233 310 197 242 -122 -77 -190 -77 36 -9 Rochford 230 245 326 253 282 -52 -23 -96 -81 -8 -37 Southend UA 300 267 452 241 326 -26 59 -152 -185 26 -58 Tendring 425 482 676 358 485 -60 67 -251 -194 124 -3 Thurrock UA 925 583 483 786 665 260 139 442 100 -203 -82 Uttlesford 400 327 261 266 264 136 134 139 66 61 63

Hertfordshire 3980 3250 4228 3036 3513 467 944 -248 -978 214 -263 Broxbourne 255 304 376 334 351 -96 -79 -121 -72 -30 -47 Dacorum 315 495 560 340 428 -113 -25 -245 -66 155 67East Hertfordshire 1040 453 679 494 568 472 546 361 -226 -41 -115 Hertsmere 210 138 327 267 291 -81 -57 -117 -190 -129 -153 North Hertfordshire* 790 330 579 303 413 377 487 212 -249 27 -83 St Albans 350 356 455 301 363 -13 49 -105 -99 55 -7 Stevenage 320 409 343 284 308 12 36 -23 66 124 101Three Rivers 180 107 272 165 208 -28 15 -92 -165 -59 -101 Watford 230 392 183 243 219 11 -13 47 209 149 173Welwyn Hatfield 290 269 454 305 365 -75 -15 -164 -185 -37 -96

Norfolk 3630 3478 3793 3390 3551 79 240 -163 -316 88 -73 Breckland 760 607 601 646 628 132 114 159 5 -40 -22 Broadland 610 546 616 679 654 -44 -69 -6 -71 -133 -108 Great Yarmouth 300 284 419 254 320 -20 46 -119 -134 30 -36 King's Lynn&West Norfolk 550 639 697 611 645 -95 -61 -147 -59 28 -6 North Norfolk 320 421 517 435 468 -148 -115 -197 -96 -14 -46 Norwich 530 409 385 304 336 194 226 145 24 105 73South Norfolk 560 572 558 461 500 60 99 2 14 111 72

Suffolk 2930 2685 3262 2517 2815 115 413 -332 -577 168 -130 Babergh 260 345 481 278 359 -99 -18 -221 -136 67 -14 Forest Heath 320 265 325 185 241 79 135 -5 -60 80 24Ipswich 770 360 345 265 297 473 505 425 15 95 63Mid Suffolk 385 405 515 386 438 -53 -1 -130 -110 19 -33 St Edmundsbury 400 450 393 459 433 -33 -59 8 58 -9 17Suffolk Coastal 505 485 650 553 592 -87 -48 -145 -165 -68 -107 Waveney 290 375 553 390 455 -165 -100 -263 -178 -15 -80

21710 20794 25003 19220 21533 177 2490 -3293 -4209 1575 -739

* Excludes MKSM SRS elements of growth, which indicates growth as follows (excluding figures shown above)

Total Annual averageBedford 16270 814Mid Bedfordshire 3230 162Luton, South Bedfordshire, N Herts, Aylesbury 26300 1315

Local Plan annual average

1990 - 2005

RSS14 annual average 2001 -

2021

Large Site completed / under

completion

Actual completions

average annual (1980-2005)

Actual completions

average annual (1990-2005)

Actual completions

average annual (1980-1990)

Actual average greater than LPAverage completions compared with draft RSS14

Completions average (1980 -

2005) greater than LP

Completions average (1980 -

2005) greater than RSS14

East of England

Page 34: Housing Delivery on Strategic Sites

Housing Delivery on Strategic Sites - Research Study

Appendix 4: Local Development Plans Analysis

Page 35: Housing Delivery on Strategic Sites

Appendix 4: Local development plans analysis

1986 - 2001 1988 - 2006 1991 - 2006 1991 - 2011 1993 - 2011 1996 - 2011 1996 - 2016 Period 1 Period 2 Average Maximun MinimunBedfordshire and Luton 49300 2465 2465 1533 -932Bedford Borough 16200 810 24 265 1450 9 1 23 810 526 -284 -35 343Mid Bedfordshire 18100 905 26 170 1200 20 1 25 905 637 -268 -30 283South Bedfordshire 8800 440 29 87 480 12 0 29 440 371 -69 -16 133Luton Borough 6200 310 13 46 136 12 0 13 310 361 51 16 41 35Cambridgeshire and Peterborough 54,800 3653 3653 3029 -624Fenland 10,200 680 19 137 360 10 0 19 680 524 -156 -23 89Peterborough 9,800 653 42 88 1000 9 1 41 653 553 -100 -15 203 39Huntingdonshire 12,300 820 45 187 1566 30 2 44 820 657 -163 -20 264East Cambridgeshire 7,500 500 12 225 650 18 0 12 500 429 -71 -14 240South Cambridgeshire 11,300 753 55 89 630 3 0 55 753 582 -171 -23 125 18Cambridge city 3,700 247 23 100 1284 13 1 22 247 283 37 15 261Essex, Southend and Thurrock 89000 72250 5933 4817 5263 5714 451Basildon 11000 7650 733 510 8 158 720 14 0 8 599 810 211 35 257 20Braintree 8300 10300 553 687 72 84 850 12 0 72 633 618 -15 -2 153 32Brentwood 2000 1450 133 97 12 111 133 21 19Castle Point 2300 2400 153 160 4 157 154 -4 -2 0Chelmsford 9200 11650 613 777 79 80 1650 1 1 78 711 557 -154 -22 241 20Colchester 10200 11000 680 733 20 217 1600 1 1 19 712 697 -15 -2 367 25Epping Forest 3650 2400 243 160 12 99 250 15 0 12 193 320 127 66 74Harlow 5250 5450 350 363 10 142 751 10 0 10 358 325 -33 -9 253 55Maldon 4550 2800 303 187 5 10 30 3 0 5 233 197 -36 -16 11Rochford 4600 3050 307 203 11 58 216 5 0 11 245 253 8 3 58Southend 6650 2250 443 150 16 16 78 1 0 16 267 241 -26 -10 21Tendring 8700 6250 580 417 28 67 423 12 0 28 482 358 -124 -26 97Thurrock 8750 583 86 104 3173 8 1 85 583 786 203 35 347 44Uttlesford 3850 5600 257 373 10 276 825 25 0 10 327 266 -61 -19 41 18Hertfordshire 57000 65000 3800 3250 3250 3036 -214 49Broxbourne 5500 6080 367 304 8 66 150 25 0 8 304 334 30 10 38Dacorum 5200 9890 347 495 62 39 394 2 0 62 495 340 -155 -31 64East Hertfordshire 10600 9060 707 453 107 45 565 1 0 107 453 494 41 9 98 19Hertsmere 3600 2750 240 138 8 76 307 10 0 8 138 267 129 94 101North Hertfordshire 8000 6600 533 330 5 155 265 71 0 5 330 303 -27 -8 85 15St Albans 7200 7120 480 356 77 24 147 2 0 77 356 301 -55 -15 34Stevenage 4700 8170 313 409 19 41 101 10 0 19 409 284 -124 -30 29Three Rivers 3600 2130 240 107 43 50 286 3 0 43 107 165 59 55 57Watford 4200 7830 280 392 41 54 310 10 0 41 392 243 -149 -38 73Welwyn Hatfield 4400 5370 293 269 23 138 1700 10 1 22 269 305 37 14 346 74Norfolk 69,000 61,000 3389 3833 3478 3390 -88Breckland 10,600 11,000 611 589 6 682 1439 22 2 4 607 646 40 7 521 30Broadland 11,500 9,400 522 639 13 113 640 10 0 13 546 679 133 24 182Great Yarmouth 6,800 4,700 261 378 15 81 195 10 0 15 284 254 -30 -11 61King's Lynn&West Norfolk 13500 11000 611 750 11 304 924 30 0 11 639 611 -28 -4 315North Norfolk 8,700 7,300 406 483 0 0 0 0 0 0 421 435 14 3Norwich 7,200 7,400 411 400 88 71 510 20 0 88 409 304 -105 -26 79South Norfolk 10,700 10,200 567 594 37 116 815 4 0 37 572 461 -111 -19 178Suffolk 53700 2685 2685 2517 -168Babergh 6900 345 24 84 700 5 0 24 345 278 -67 -19 149Forest Heath 5300 265 11 59 122 10 0 11 265 185 -80 -30 35 30Ipswich 7200 360 34 90 300 10 0 34 360 265 -95 -26 82 14Mid Suffolk 8100 405 4 98 162 39 0 4 405 386 -19 -5 62St Edmundsbury 9000 450 14 179 440 10 0 14 450 459 9 2 126 23Suffolk Coastal 9700 485 0 0 0 0 0 0 485 553 68 14Waveney 7500 375 23 66 425 4 0 23 375 390 15 4 108

* All the data of site size and number are from local plans. ** Period 1990 to 2005 was used because information in respect of large sites for this period is considered to be robust. Data for preceding period appears thin.Large sites comprises developments of more than a 1000 dwellings

Difference

(A) Difference as a % of planned

(B) Standard Deviation

(C) Large sites as a % of

total

Planned rate of development (pa)

County / Local Authority

Planned annual average (1990 -

2005)**

Completions (annual average:

1990-2005)No. of large

sites No. of small sites No. of sites

Total (dwellings) Site Sizes (dwellings)*

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Housing Delivery on Strategic Sites - Research Study

Appendix 5: Large Sites Completions

Page 37: Housing Delivery on Strategic Sites

Appendix 5: Large Sites Completions

Site complete 80/81 81/82 82/83 83/84 84/85 85/86 86/87 87/88 88/89 89/90 90/91 91/92 92/93 93/94 94/95 95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05

Exact completions or

averagesBedfordshire and LutonBedford Borough XMid Bedfordshire XSouth Bedfordshire X AveragesLuton Borough Bramingham Park 2005 2005 223 N/A N/A 1987/88 1996 9 N/A 174 331 200 175 190 170 190 320 255

Bushmead 1027 1027 103 N/A N/A 1987 1997 10 N/A 69 95 95 96 96 96 96 96 96 96 96 AveragesWigmore 1976 1976 165 N/A N/A 1985 1997 12 N/A 32 164 164 164 161 161 161 161 161 161 162 162 162 Averages

Cambridgeshire and PeterboroughFenland XPeterborough UA Bretton 5100 2720 340 N/A 1970 1972 1987 15 N/A 340 340 340 340 340 340 340 340 Averages

Orton 6800 4250 425 N/A 1973 1974 1990 16 N/A 425 425 425 425 425 425 425 425 425 425 AveragesWerrington 3895 3895 325 N/A 1975 1975 1987 12 N/A 395 395 396 396 396 396 396 396 183 183 184 29 30 30 30 30 30 AveragesHampton - Southern Township 5200 2525 281 1992 1993 1996 2005 9 4 149 95 192 356 456 347 340 378 212

Huntingdonshire East of the Railway, St Neots* 1100 N/A N/A 2001 2004 2005 N/A 0 4Stukeley Meadows 1240 1208 95 N/A N/A 1986 1999 13 N/A 122 122 123 123 99 99 99 100 100 55 55 55 56 Averages

East Cambridgeshire XSouth Cambridgeshire Cambourne 3300 1700 243 1992 1994 1998 2005 7 6 126 126 127 213 337 620 151Cambridge City XEssex, Southend and ThurrockBasildon The Wick, Wickford 3555 2445 188 N/A 1973 1990 2004 14 N/A 59 89 25 334 285 346 190 306 157 157 218 78 125 76Braintree Kings Park Village (Marks Farm) 1350 1180 91 N/A 1988 1991 2004 13 N/A 9 17 21 21 75 169 150 155 243 138 55 55 72

Great Notley Garden Village 1766 1766 136 N/A 1989 1993 2004 11 N/A 60 110 153 195 215 133 84 271 193 282 70Brentwood XCastle Point XChelmsford East Springfield: Chelmer Village 2959 2959 148 1973 N/A 1975 1995 20 2 295 244 78 156 64

North Melbourne 1336 1336 67 1975 1976 1978 1998 20 3 0 0 17 0 0 0 0 36North Springfield 2810 2810 141 1973 N/A 1975 1995 20 2 74 42 18 22 10South Woodham Ferrers 4757 478 N/A N/A pre 1991 2003 N/A N/A 36 73 74 92 29 41 30 28 2 0 6 20 47

Colchester Highwoods 3910 3910 178 1972 N/A 1982 2004 22 10 181 181 181 181 181 181 176 229 157 285 163 205 272 105 173 252 257 156 88 70 196 40Garrison* 2600 56 56 N/A N/A 2004 2005 1 56

Epping Forest XHarlow Church Langley 3528 3312 276 1985 1988 1992 2004 12 7 287 237 381 407 397 466 513 316 158 66 49 35Maldon XRochford XSouthend UA XTendring XThurrock UA Chafford Hundred 5307 5107 300 1985 1986 1988 2005 17 3 45 40 250 247 218 300 249 269 198 177 356 492 489 675 677 262 163Uttlesford Woodlands Park 1453 430 86 1988 1993 2000 2005 5 9 46 46 46 46 46 AveragesHertfordshireBroxbourne XDacorum XEast Hertfordshire Bishops Park 1074 1074 107 N/A 1988 1989 1999 10 N/A 22 78 120 64 124 270 129 112 140 15

Thorley Park 2953 2953 141 N/A 1974 1974 2005 21 N/A 154 154 154 154 154 154 154 154 154 154 154 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 AveragesHertsmere XNorth Hertfordshire Great Ashby (see Stevenage)St Albans XStevenage Great Ashby 2191 1266 181 1988 1 993 1998 2005 7 11 30 204 319 310 246 100 81

Poplars 1265 1265 84 1980 N/A 1983 1998 15 3 72 324 175 220 52 15 78 78 33 0 6 11 78 45 78Chells 1129 1129 66 1972 N/A 1985 2002 17 13 8 195 194 173 82 116 48 84 134 51 224 204 144 32 0 75 14

Three Rivers XWatford XWelwyn Hatfield Hatfield Aerodrome Site 2181 819 205 1999 1999 2001 2005 4 2 37 347 435NorfolkBreckland XBroadland Thorpe Marriot 2854 2854 238 1984 N/A 1988 2000 12 4 500 164 153 216 98 241 238 213 279 205 219 157 171

Dussindale Park 1378 1378 115 1984 1986 1989 2001 12 6 3 51 53 57 72 83 153 203 209 158 70 266Great Yarmouth XKing's Lynn & West Norfolk XNorth Norfolk XNorwich XSouth Norfolk XSuffolkBabergh XForest Heath Red Lodge* 1250 50 50 2002 2003 2004 2005 1 2 50Ipswich Ravenswood 1200 818 136 1998 1998 1999 2005 6 1 5 200 60 226 145 182Mid Suffolk XSt Edmundsbury Moreton Hall, Bury St Edmunds 2350 2350 94 1971 1972 1980 2005 25 9 94 94 94 94 94 94 94 94 94 94 94 94 94 94 94 94 94 94 94 94 94 94 94 94 94 AveragesSuffolk Coastal Grange Farm 3150 2044 146 1987 1987 1990 2005 14 3 146 146 146 146 146 146 146 146 146 146 146 146 146 146 Averages

Bixley Farm 1050 931 49 1987 1988 1985 2005 19 1 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 AveragesWaveney X

Additional Sites (not in East of England)

Swindon West Swindon 5285 5285 587 N/A N/A 1983 1992 9Swindon Haydon Sector 8500 4500 500 N/A N/A 1993 2002 9Dorset Poundbury 2500 2500 34 N/A N/A 1994 N/A N/AEdinburgh South East wedge 5000 2500 500 N/A N/A 2000 2005 5

* Land East of Railway, Garrison and Red Lodge are excluded due to recently being permitted

Capacity

County / Local Authority

Annual Completions

Site Name

StartPPAPPAnnual

AverageBuilt 1980/05 Lag TimeBuild

PeriodEnd

Page 38: Housing Delivery on Strategic Sites

APPENDIX 5: CASE STUDIES

1. CAMBOURNE, SOUTH CAMBRIDGESHIRE 2 2. GRANGE FARM, SUFFOLK COASTAL 4 3. CHAFFORD HUNDRED, THURROCK 5 4. CHURCH LANGLEY, HARLOW 7 5. HAMPTON SOUTHERN TOWNSHIP, PETERBOROUGH 8 6. THE WICK, BASILDON 10

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1. Cambourne, South Cambridgeshire 1.1.1 The Cambourne development is located to the south of A428 to the west of

Cambridge. The new settlement comprises 3,300 houses including a local shopping centre, 20 ha business park, 2 ha industrial estate, shops, community facilities, two primary schools, secondary education provision, public open space and recreation facilities.

1.1.2 Approximately one quarter of the 3,300 dwellings will be for rented or low cost housing to meet local need in the Cambridge Sub-area. The business park, industrial estate and on-site shops and services will potentially provide at least 3,000 jobs. Many villagers will have the opportunity to live and work at Cambourne.

1.1.3 The application was submitted in 1992 and approved by 1994. At this time, the Council were considering how best to accommodate housing overflow from Cambridge and were considering developing greenfield sites. One site had been rejected. An application was then prepared for Cambourne as the Council was considering implementing a bypass at the nearby village of Caxton. The Council took the opportunity to develop the bypass in conjunction with Cambourne.

1.1.4 As part of the section 106 for Cambourne it was agreed that a Masterplanning and Design Guide be formulated for the scheme. This document was then adopted in 1995 and is still in use. The Council note that this Guide has been a particularly useful tool document providing an overall concept for development as well as helping speed up the planning and design process by creating certainty and continuity of proposals. Throughout construction, individual briefs for specific sites and phases have been developed to ensure the scheme is up-to-date and responding to local circumstances.

1.1.5 Buliding work started in 1999 and is expected to be completed by 2011. The gap between being the granting of planning permission and house building was due to the fact that a range of pyhiscal infrastructure was required, particularly access to the site from the A428 and drainage arrangements which limit the rate of runoff to Bourne Brook.

1.1.6 At present approxiamtely 1,700 dwellings have been completed, with an average completion rate of just under 250 dwellings per annum. Developers have been aiming to develop approximately 300 dwellings per annum. In general, the site has endured relatively high completions rates. Over the first four years of development completion rates averaged 200 dwellings, which have risen and fluctuated over time peaking at 620 dwellings in 2003/04.

1.1.7 There have been three main house builders working on Cambourne throughout the development process. The Council noted that this arrangement has been generally successful as it has ensured that good relationships between the two parties have been formed. One of the main reasons for increased completion rates is due to higher density residential units being completed. Developers have been very keen to achieve higher densities. For example, with regard to Greater and Lower Cambourne, work started on Greater Cambourne on high to medium density properties, with areas towards the outskirts of the site and bordering the golf course which are planned for lower densities have been left undeveloped.

1.1.8 Over the last year housing completions have slowed down due to the fact that the Council has advised that as part of the LDF that 700 additional residential dwellings are constructed on the same building footprint. As part of this guidance, there was much uncertainty surrounding a project called ‘Cambourne Enhanced’ which proposed to increase the site by 2,000 dwellings, and thus build rates slowed down. This scheme has since been rejected. Alternatively, new policy in the LDF is planned to raise average

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residential densities from 25 dph to 30 dph, ensuring the site is in accordance with Government guidance. This highlights the impact of changes in planning policy on the development process. With the total number of dwellings set to rise to approximately 4,000 units, it is expected that completion rates should increase in the coming years.

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2. Grange Farm, Suffolk Coastal 2.1.1 Grange Farm received planning permission for approximately 3,000 new

dwellings in 1987. The development site comprises a district centre containing, shops and community services and facilities, employment area (approximately 8 ha), schools, comprehensive footpath and cycleway system and range of public open spaces including children’s play areas.

2.1.2 Grange Farm has been developed at an average annual completion rate of 146 dwellings per annum. This is completely due to the rate at which the landowner has released parcels of land on the site. Land has been released at an even and consistent rate throughout the construction period. Therefore, the rate of development of the site is out of the control of the housebuilders.

2.1.3 The local housing market has been very strong over the whole of the build period, extending back to the mid 1980’s to the present day. This has ensured that there has always been strong demand and interest from housebuilders. A range of housebuilders have been involved on the development of the site, including national and local developers. They are always prepared to bid for the land.

2.1.4 The landowner has taken great interest in development of site and effectively been in control of the process. Landowner has been involved in the process from the start. Kesgrave is relatively small settlement which a population of approximately 13,000. Therefore the scheme at Grange Farm represents a significant expansion to the town.

2.1.5 The intention of the gradual constant timed release of land was and is to ensure that the local housing market is not flooded.

2.1.6 In terms of physical infrastructure, it has been developed as part of the stepped construction process. The majority was built at the beginning of development where £5 million worth of highways improvements were undertaken in the late 1980s. These improvements included building two new roundabouts and a loop road.

2.1.7 The Council confirmed that there have been several changes overtiume to the original planning application. Most noticeably, more houses have been than originally planned, mainly due to changes planning guidance relating to densities. As densities have increased more units have been built. In addition, due to a combination of lack of local employment demand and high local housing demand, a large part of the site which was originally allocated for employment uses has now been developed as housing.

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3. Chafford Hundred, Thurrock 3.1.1 Approximately two thirds of the site was previously a chalk quarry. Much of the

remainder was agricultural land. The main components of the development are:

Infrastructure – new railway station (the Chafford Hundred Station, with a throughway linking to the Lakeside Shopping Centre. New road networks linking the A1306 and A13 (T)/A127 Lakeside Link Road are underway. Within the development a network of pedestrian footpaths and cycle ways have been established as well as bus routes linking Grays and other adjacent towns.

Environment – reparation of past environmental damage from the previous quarrying of chalk in the area has included a number of park and recreational areas. Areas of special environmental and scientific interest include Warren Gorge which has been opened to the public. This contains lakes, waterways and a nature sanctuary. Lion Gorge includes an area of woodland and is due to open for public access in the future.

Community and Leisure Facilities – Tudor Court and The Warren primary schools, and the Chafford Hundred Secondary School, which also incorporates the Learning Campus, provide educational infrastructure. The Bannatyne Leisure Centre was established in 1997 and has indoor tennis courts, a multi-gym and swimming pool. There are also a number of local shops, a health centre with facilities for doctors, dentists and chiropodists, and community facilities. An interpretation centre incorporating information about Lion & Warren Gorge is planned.

3.1.2 The development was led by Chafford Hundred Limited comprising a consortium of the landowner and major housebuilders.

3.1.3 Almost immediately after outline planning permission was granted the developer submitted a small application for a parcel of land adjoining the existing built-up area including the existing road network. This application was allowed and therefore production on site started rapidly.

3.1.4 However, the site has previously been extensively used for quarrying. Before development could commence major reworking and levelling of the land was required particularly due to the main body of the scheme being located over two deep gorges. In addition a range of planning guides and strategies were required for the detailed application and then new infrastructure, including the road network, access arrangement, drainage and core services were also required to be in place before the major house building could start. As a result, completion rates at the beginning of production were low. In addition, the Council note that during the mid 1990s the recession also affected build rates.

3.1.5 Housing rates start of at a very slow rate and gradual increase and fluctuate. These completions then begin to rise at a faster rate from 1998 to 2003, peaking at 677 dwellings per annum.

3.1.6 The Council recognise that housing completion rates at Chafford Hundred are also generally very closely related to the strength of the local housing market. The Council also commented that there have been no issues or problems in attracting a consortium of developers or house builders to site which has proven to be highly attractive to buyers particularly due to excellent transport links and close proximity to services and facilities particularly Lakeside shopping centre.

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3.1.7 In addition. a new railway station was constructed as part of the scheme. This aspect og the development was not in the original application. It was built during the mid 1990s along the existing railway line which runs along the western boundary of the site. The Council explained that this development acted as a trigger to increase housing completion rates. In combination, with the completion of infrastructure and high demand for properties, rates of production dramatically increased from the late 1990s.

3.1.8 In relation to completion rates, conditions attached to the application primarily related to provision of services and facilities. There were no conditions for phasing of house building. Instead, conditions set out the requirement for infrastructure to be provided once a certain number of units had been constructed.

3.1.9 The annual average rate of development is approximately 280 dwellings per annum. The Council explained that the developers had intended for higher completion rates however these did not transpire. This is evident as the applicants were forced to extend the reserve matters by 4 years.

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4. Church Langley, Harlow 4.1.1 Church Langley is located to the east of Harlow and was initially identified as a

potential housing site in 1983. It was one of three competing locations for development considered for development at Inquiry during the mid-80s. Planning permission was granted in 1987 and the initial phase of development was begun in 1991. Church Langley was consistent with the Frank Gibberd master plan for the New Town. At the time of the application the site fell within Epping Forest District and a Boundary commission decision led to the site falling with Harlow’s administrative boundary.

4.1.2 The proposal for Church Langley was well-received by the Council at a time when the New Town Development Corporation was being wound up. However, the recession of the early 90s led to a number of developers being present on the site and whilst build rates were maintained at a steady output, the slowing down of development in the last few years appears to be due to only one issue being the Council’s desire for a green wedge (as in the rest of Harlow) to be included within the layout design.

4.1.3 The slowing down of development in the past few years appears to be due to only one house builder left working on site. The various house builders on-site appeared to generally have different customer bases they were aiming at, and this can help to explain why a consistently high development rate during the main construction period. The final two parcels of land were granted planning permission in 2001/02 and have developed at a slower rate.

4.1.4 Section 106 contributions funded provision of bus lanes from the east to central Harlow and land provided for the schools but not funding.

4.1.5 Two notable planning wrangles during the development process have been in relation to the nursery. This site was originally intended to have been a small parade of shops but local residents created such a fuss over loss of amenity (mainly from noise generation) that members refused the application and eventually the nursery was proposed and approved. Similarly, a number of the children’s playgrounds as set out in the master plan for the site have not been provided because of resident’s fears over noise and general anti-social behaviour.

4.1.6 There is a GP surgery and dentist within the development. The Council is not aware of what negotiations if any were held with partner organisations.

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5. Hampton Southern Township, Peterborough 5.1.1 The planning application for the new Peterborough Southern Township was

submitted in 1990, with planning consent granted in March 1993. It took a further 3 years for the first houses to be constructed on site. The site history is set out below, with reasons for delay along with factors which have affected the annual completions rate.

5.1.2 Previously, this site was the location of many clay pits, in which the London Brick Company made bricks and exported them to London. In the 1960’s some of these empty clay pits were filled using pulverised fuel ash (PDA) left over from coal based power stations, which enabled the land to be restored for agricultural uses, as per condition. The site was then brought by Lord Hanson (Hanson Plc), and at the time, the site had a negative land value. Hanson Plc then subsequently appointed engineering consultants to evaluate the ground conditions for housing and employment.

5.1.3 It was well known that the pulverized fuel ash contained contaminants, however, it was found that the silica within the ash converted to glass therefore forming a protective barrier around any heavy metals and other contaminants. Approximately a third of the site was restored prior to the planning application being submitted.

5.1.4 The site was subsequently allocated within the Cambridgeshire and Peterborough Structure Plan as the fourth township for Peterborough rather than Orton or Castor, which were now contrary to planning policy as these sites mostly consisted of good quality agricultural land. It took a further 3 years for the Borough Council to confirm building rates.

5.1.5 The site was then partly sold to Tesco and the rest was sold to O & H who are international land developers, for approximately one million pounds per acre. The masterplan was then revisited, incorporating SUD’s and new landscaping parameters.

5.1.6 There have been a number of factors which have delayed the implementation of the planning application. Some of the remaining clay pits contained one of the worlds largest colonies of Great Crested Newts, which subsequently needed to be relocated to another part of the Hampton site, thus delaying the start of construction. Therefore taking along time to settle reserved matters on the outline planning application.

5.1.7 The site is also located in low lying land, therefore the site had major issues with flooding. Approximately 25% of the site is covered with drainage ponds which took nearly 3 years to implement.

5.1.8 Planning Policy Guidance also had a impact on the completion rates on the site. The original outline planning application was approved before the publication of PPG3, which meant that the original housing densities had to be changed when published. This subsequently meant that open space provision and other community facilities had to be revisited and the Section 106 agreement had to be revised for each of the three development areas, bearing in mind that these agreements were lengthy.

5.1.9 Conditions also played apart in delaying construction. In particular, the implementation of infrastructure when a certain housing thresholds were reached or a certain geographical area needed to be constructed. On this note, reference to the construction of the western perimeter road was delayed for up to 18 months as a result of a SSSI being designated in the path of the road. The plans had to be revised to ensure that bridges were suitable for the movement of Great Crested Newts between ponds. Furthermore, local residents were also causing delays as they were unhappy about the development of the site, particularly in relation to conservation interests.

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5.1.10 O & H also release parcels of land to two or three housebuilders a year, depending on market conditions, therefore producing staged releases.

5.1.11 In summary the main issues for this site are as follows:

Changing Planning Policy – has benefited and hindered the development of this site. Positively, as it was a brownfield site but negatively by increasing density figures, thus requiring section 106 agreements to be revised due to a change in dwelling numbers

Conditions – requiring the implementation of infrastructure at certain dwelling thresholds and geographical locations.

Public participation – residential opposition to further development on site in the later years of construction has been a negative factor.

New Town Status – helped the process in the beginning as little opposition.

Physical constraints – contamination, flooding and nature conservation issues that increased the lag time between grant of permission and construction

Change in ownership – the masterplan was revised, and incorporated SUD’s and new landscaping parameters thus increasing the lag time between grant of permission and construction

Cycles in the housing market have effected the annual completions rates along with the staged release of housing.

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10

6. The Wick, Basildon 6.1.1 The is a greenfield site located in south Wickford. Outline planning permission

for phase 3 was granted in 1988 for the development of 800 dwellings on 28.3 hectares of Green Belt to the east of Phases 1 and 2 of the Wick Comprehensive Development Area. The Green Belt boundary is redrawn along the southern boundary of the proposed development area eastwards as far as the railway line, and the Green Belt notation as shown in the ARDP 1976 has been removed.

6.1.2 Due to the nature and size of the scheme it has been developed in 3 phases. Each phase was staggered and outline permissions in 1973, 1985 and 1990, and 1988 respectively. All phases are currently near completion.

6.1.3 In to the 1990s, the first three years of development saw an average of almost 60 dwellings being completed per annum. Completion rates then rose to approximately 320 dwellings per annum over the next 3 years. Then from 1996–2004 rates have fluctuated ranging from 76 to 306 dwellings.

6.1.4 These changes in completion rates have occurred due to a number of factors.

6.1.5 Local market demand and supply of housing has had the most significant impact. Over recent years, the Borough of Basildon has experienced high levels of housing building on a range of greenfield sites. The scheme at Basildon New Town has particularly affected build rates at The Wick. In the past, during certain years, house builders have opted to develop the New Town over The Wick. However, now that the New Town has recently been fully built out, completions are set to increase at The Wick.

6.1.6 In addition, a number of local house builders who were developing plots of land at The Wick have sold parcels to national house builders. This has process has increased completion rates during certain parts of the construction period due to the fact that local Firms have less resources compared to national house builders and thus build houses at slower rates.

6.1.7 Generally, infrastructure and services and facilities have been developed throughout the construction period at the beginning of each phase. Of note, the neighbourhood centre has evolved during the construction period in that it has now been completely taken over by Tescos.

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Appendix 6: Analysis by Local Authority

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Appendix 6: Analysis by Local Authority

1980/90 1990/05 1980/05 Start End Total build period 1980-1990 1990-2005 1980/81 1981/82 1982/83 1983/84 1984/85 1985/86 1986/87 1987/88 1988/89 1989/90 1990/91 1991/92 1992/93 1993/94 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/00 2000/01 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05

Luton Total completions 491 697 872 415 677 1317 739 1333 1520 883 1016 809 543 824 191 260 378 155 28 196 44 260 270 148 291Bramington Park 2005 505 1500 2005 1987 1996 9 3 6 174 331 200 175 190 170 190 320 255Bushmead 1027 259 768 1027 1987 1997 10 3 7 69 95 95 96 96 96 96 96 96 96 96Wigmore 1976 685 1291 1976 1985 1997 12 5 7 32 164 164 164 161 161 161 161 161 161 162 162 162

TOTAL STRATEGIC SITES 32 164 233 433 587 457 432 447 427 447 578 513 258% 2 22 17 28 66 45 53 82 52 234 222 136 166

Peterborough UA Total completions 1774 1844 1535 1333 1232 1123 1172 1855 1626 1213 1050 866 417 499 430 279 546 395 485 562 341 400 511 696 824Bretton 5100 2720 0 2720 1972 1987 15 7 0 340 340 340 340 340 340 340 340Orton 6800 4250 0 4250 1974 1990 16 10 0 425 425 425 425 425 425 425 425 425 425Werrington 3000 3532 363 3895 1975 1987 12 7 0 395 395 396 396 396 396 396 396 183 183 184 29 30 30 30 30 30Hampton - Southern Township 5200 0 2525 2525 1996 ongoing 9 0 9 149 95 192 356 456 347 340 378 212

TOTAL STRATEGIC SITES 20100 10502 2888 13390 1160 1160 1161 1161 1161 1161 1161 1161 608 608 184 29 30 30 30 30 179 95 192 356 456 347 340 378 212% 65 63 76 87 94 103 99 63 37 50 18 3 7 6 7 11 33 24 40 63 134 87 67 54 26

Huntingdonshire Total completions 1020 770 688 886 1085 1090 1238 1288 1348 1527 870 797 651 744 726 856 973 851 611 650 442 490 468 370 354Stukeley Meadows 1240 490 718 1208 1986 1999 13 4 0 122 122 123 123 99 99 99 100 100 55 55 55 56

TOTAL STRATEGIC SITES 1240 490 718 1208 122 122 123 123 99 99 99 100 100 55 55 55 56% 10 9 9 8 11 12 15 13 14 6 6 6 9

South Cambridgeshire Total completions 565 526 731 789 788 902 820 948 1214 951 548 399 364 372 448 448 513 1107 673 703 625 664 537 571 758Cambourne 3300 0 1611 1611 1999 ongoing 6 0 6 90 200 213 337 620 151

TOTAL STRATEGIC SITES 3300 0 1611 1611 90 200 213 337 620 151% 13 32 32 63 109 20

Basildon Total completions 2023 1464 1840 1980 1258 1423 1235 1779 1330 712 701 578 682 962 1115 1221 1372 1163 1181 1169 685 404 256 312 352The Wick 3555 0 2445 2445 1990 ongoing 15 9 15 59 89 25 334 285 346 190 306 157 157 218 78 125 76

TOTAL STRATEGIC SITES 3555 0 2445 2445 59 89 25 334 285 346 190 306 157 157 218 78 125 76% 8 15 4 35 26 28 14 26 13 13 32 19 49 24

Braintree Total completions 538 317 713 646 640 739 647 792 1460 509 378 443 217 230 511 624 1208 954 741 686 487 396 1176 547 675Marks Farm, Coggeshall Road 1350 0 1180 1180 1991 ongoing 14 0 14 0 9 17 21 21 75 169 150 155 243 138 55 55 72Great Notley Garden Village 1766 0 1766 1766 1993 2004 11 0 11 0 0 0 60 110 153 195 215 133 84 271 193 282 70

TOTAL STRATEGIC SITES 3116 0 2946 2946 0 9 17 81 131 228 364 365 288 327 409 248 337 142% 0 2 8 35 26 37 30 38 39 48 84 63 29 26

Chelmsford Total completions 836 596 935 824 1197 1135 1896 1296 1146 1011 641 437 559 546 655 356 297 362 460 514 542 519 838 863 764Chelmer Village 2959 0 837 837 1977 1995 18 10 5 295 244 78 156 64North Melbourne 1336 0 53 53 pre 1991 1998 8 0 8 0 0 17 0 0 0 0 36North Springfield 2810 0 166 166 1976 1995 19 10 5 74 42 18 22 10South Woodham Ferrers 4757 0 478 478 pre 1991 202 12 0 12 36 73 74 92 29 41 30 28 2 0 6 20 47

TOTAL STRATEGIC SITES 11862 0 1534 1534 405 359 187 270 103 41 30 64 2 0 6 20 47% 63 82 33 49 16 12 10 18 0 0 1 4 6

Colchester Total completions 586 381 613 686 622 831 831 735 1015 1029 650 986 575 741 638 575 549 657 672 604 466 533 851 1110 850Highwoods 3910 1491 2419 3910 1982 2004 18 8 14 181 181 181 181 181 181 176 229 157 285 163 205 272 105 173 252 257 156 88 70 196 40

TOTAL STRATEGIC SITES 3910 1491 2419 3910 181 181 181 181 181 181 176 229 157 285 163 205 272 105 173 252 257 156 88 70 196 40% 30 26 29 22 22 25 17 22 24 29 28 28 43 18 32 38 38 26 19 13 23 4

Harlow Total completions 278 320 56 101 69 152 301 264 55 136 92 162 346 272 456 558 502 658 566 536 237 194 145 59 89Church Langley 3528 0 3312 3312 1990 ongoing 15 0 15 287 237 381 407 397 466 513 316 158 66 49 35

TOTAL STRATEGIC SITES 3528 0 3312 3312 287 237 381 407 397 466 513 316 158 66 49 35% 83 87 84 73 79 71 91 59 67 34 34 59

Thurrock UA Total completions 325 116 261 582 660 539 504 285 840 721 896 776 660 526 785 804 852 1129 669 803 611 824 971 819 668Chafford Hundred 5307 85 5022 5107 1988 2006 18 2 15 45 40 250 247 218 300 249 269 198 177 356 492 489 675 677 262 163

TOTAL STRATEGIC SITES 5307 85 5022 5107 45 40 250 247 218 300 249 269 198 177 356 492 489 675 677 262 163% 5 6 28 32 33 57 32 33 23 16 53 61 80 82 70 32 24

Uttlesford Total completions 466 164 163 116 241 367 303 289 275 226 396 181 193 223 411 334 134 241 288 279 199 209 281 285 332Woodlands Park 1453 0 230 230 2000 ongoing 5 0 5 46 46 46 46 46

TOTAL STRATEGIC SITES 1453 0 230 230 46 46 46 46 46% 23 22 16 16 14

North Hertfordshire Total completions 5785 4551 10336 407 311 466 677 390 748 653 573 697 863 485 355 442 473 394 332 308 390 147 274 228 263 252 161 47Stevenage Total completions 3429 4262 7691 537 238 281 187 336 359 233 383 395 480 253 189 307 478 426 566 381 344 267 281 214 216 105 50 185North Hertfordshire and Stevenage Total completions 944 549 747 864 726 1107 886 956 1092 1343 738 544 749 951 820 898 689 734 414 555 442 479 357 211 232

Great Ashby 2024 0 1290 1290 1999 ongoing 7 0 7 30 204 319 310 246 100 81TOTAL STRATEGIC SITES 5067 0 1290 1290 30 204 319 310 246 100 81% 7 37 72 65 69 47 35

Stevenage Total completions 537 238 281 187 336 359 233 383 395 480 253 189 307 478 426 566 381 344 267 281 214 216 105 50 185Poplars 1265 858 407 1265 1983 1998 15 7 8 72 324 175 220 52 15 78 78 33 0 6 11 78 45 78Chells 1778 570 1208 1778 1985 2002 17 5 12 8 195 194 173 82 116 48 84 134 51 224 204 144 32 0 75 14

TOTAL STRATEGIC SITES 3043 1428 1601 3029 72 324 183 415 246 188 160 194 81 84 140 62 302 249 222 32 0 75% 21 90 79 108 62 39 63 103 26 18 33 11 79 72 83 11 0 35

East Hertfordshire Total completions 586 393 667 672 1048 867 829 872 599 258 471 362 296 636 818 726 771 758 402 367 475 433 340 237 318Bishops Park 1074 22 1052 1074 1989 1999 10 1 9 22 78 120 64 124 270 129 112 140 15Thorley Palk 2953 1540 476 2016 154 154 154 154 154 154 154 154 154 154 154 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23

TOTAL STRATEGIC SITES 1074 1562 1528 3090 154 154 154 154 154 154 154 154 154 176 232 143 87 147 293 152 135 163 38 23 23 23 23 23 23% 68 49 40 29 23 36 21 18 22 9

Welwyn Hatfield Total completions 531 267 275 567 600 342 595 515 493 354 294 406 272 193 376 233 242 109 135 164 165 55 248 865 818Hatfield Aerodome 2181 0 819 819 2001 ongoing 4 0 4 37 347 435

TOTAL STRATEGIC SITES 2181 0 819 819 37 347 435% 15 40 53

Broadland Total completions 438 361 370 579 630 400 656 1121 868 739 590 928 897 918 851 770 889 900 862 638 569 422 340 321 289Thorpe Marriot 2936 664 2190 2854 pre 1989 2000 11 1 10 500 164 153 216 98 241 238 213 279 205 219 157 171Dussindale Park 1513 3 1375 1378 1990 2000 10 10 10 3 51 53 57 72 83 153 203 209 158 70 266

TOTAL STRATEGIC SITES 4449 167 3565 3732 167 204 269 155 313 321 366 482 414 377 227 437% 35 29 17 34 38 48 54 46 44 36 77

Ipswich Total completions 780 245 276 339 356 231 331 362 284 248 137 198 254 238 180 228 169 170 61 222 401 379 311 431 603Ravenswood 1200 0 818 818 1999 ongoing 6 6 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 200 60 226 145 182

TOTAL STRATEGIC SITES 1200 0 818 818 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 200 60 226 145 182% 2 50 16 73 34 30

St Edmundsbury Total completions 272 331 229 366 466 366 506 487 433 469 477 503 480 569 381 523 568 558 412 466 456 424 310 443 322Moreton Hall 2350 940 1410 2350 1980 2005 25 10 15 94 94 94 94 94 94 94 94 94 94 94 94 94 94 94 94 94 94 94 94 94 94 94 94 94

TOTAL STRATEGIC SITES 2350 940 1410 2350 94 94 94 94 94 94 94 94 94 94 94 94 94 94 94 94 94 94 94 94 94 94 94 94 94% 35 28 41 26 20 26 19 19 22 20 20 19 20 17 25 18 17 17 23 20 21 22 30 21 29

Suffolk Coastal Total 566 966 687 755 416 434 836 806 519 517 1050 880 557 600 572 624 444 348 498 536 328 389 484 539 441Grange Farm 3150 876 1168 2044 1990 ongoing 15 0 15 146 146 146 146 146 146 146 146 146 146 146 146 146 146Bixley Farm 1050 490 343 833 1985 ongoing 20 5 15 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49

TOTAL STRATEGIC SITES 4200 1366 1511 2877 49 49 49 49 195 195 195 195 195 195 195 195 195 195 195 195 195 146% 9 9 5 6 35 33 34 31 44 56 39 36 59 50 40 36 44 44

NB. Percentages (proportion of contribution of strategic sites in comparision with total completions) vary, and occasionally are above 100% due to the fact that annual average completion rates (for sites) have been taken where exact figures are not available

AREA

COMPLETIONS BUILD PERIOD ANNUAL RATES

SITE TOTAL Capacity

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Appendix 7: Correlation between districts housing targets and availability of large sites

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(1) Variables: (A) Difference as a % of Planned; (B) Standard Deviation. No. of records: 45 Parametric Correlations

(A) Difference as a % of Planned

(B) Standard Deviation

(A) Difference as a % of Planned

Pearson Correlation 1.000 .067

Sig. (2-tailed) . .661 N 45 45

(B) Standard Deviation

Pearson Correlation .067 1.000

Sig. (2-tailed) .661 . N 45 45

Nonparametric Correlations

(A) Difference as a % of Planned

(B) Standard Deviation

Kendall's tau_b

(A) Difference as a % of Planned

Correlation Coefficient 1.000 .097

Sig. (2-tailed) . .352 N 45 45

(B) Standard Deviation

Correlation Coefficient .097 1.000

Sig. (2-tailed) .352 . N 45 45

Spearman's rho

(A) Difference as a % of Planned

Correlation Coefficient 1.000 .134

Sig. (2-tailed) . .381 N 45 45

(B) Standard Deviation

Correlation Coefficient .134 1.000

Sig. (2-tailed) .381 . N 45 45

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(2) Variables: (A) Difference as a % of Planned; (C) Large sites as a % of total. No. of records: 17 Parametric Correlations

(A) Difference as a % of Planned

(C) Large sites as a % of total

(A) Difference as a % of Planned

Pearson Correlation 1.000 .317

Sig. (2-tailed) . .215 N 17 17

(C) Large sites as a % of total

Pearson Correlation .317 1.000

Sig. (2-tailed) .215 . N 17 17

Nonparametric Correlations

(A) Difference as a % of Planned

(C) Large sites as a % of total

Kendall's tau_b

(A) Difference as a % of Planned

Correlation Coefficient 1.000 .275

Sig. (2-tailed) . .127 N 17 17

(C) Large sites as a % of total

Correlation Coefficient .275 1.000

Sig. (2-tailed) .127 . N 17 17

Spearman's rho

(A) Difference as a % of Planned

Correlation Coefficient 1.000 .398

Sig. (2-tailed) . .114 N 17 17

(C) Large sites as a % of total

Correlation Coefficient .398 1.000

Sig. (2-tailed) .114 . N 17 17

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Appendix 8: Locational Analysis Appendix 8.1: Completions 1980 – 1990 Appendix 8.2: Completions 1990 – 2005 Appendix 8.3: Completions 1980 – 2005 Appendix 8.4: Completions minus Strategic Sites 1980 – 1990 Appendix 8.5: Completions minus Strategic Sites 1990 – 2005 Appendix 8.6: Completions minus Strategic Sites 1980 – 2005

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Appendix 9: Housing land supply for period 2001 to 2021

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Appendix 9: Housing land supply for period 2001 to 2021

2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 As at 2003 As at 2004 As at 2003 As at 2004 As at 2003 As at 2004assumed devel rate

Bedfordshire and LutonBedford Borough 731 426 796 5 14 22 59 46 49 29 36 36 2254 10847 3 13 32 41 834 16688Mid Bedfordshire 560 698 867 3 15 16 54 56 60 25 24 30 2823 9133 5 16 76 32 571 11416South Bedfordshire 649 183 705 9 26 11 86 51 88 42 35 49 1181 4363 1 4 74 78 1,091 21815Luton Borough 220 229 182 62 7 5 99 100 92 919 2050 5 12 90 93 171 3417

Cambridgeshire and Peterborough 0Fenland 536 714 712 9 5 12 42 24 38 24 31 27 2534 4388 5 9 39 36 488 9751Peterborough UA 494 705 575 11 8 3 93 93 98 31 31 31 6072 12687 6 12 97 75 1,057 21145Huntingdonshire 328 573 575 17 20 9 39 31 33 39 32 26 2074 5492 4 10 37 22 549 10984East Cambridgeshire 807 579 633 7 8 13 31 42 36 29 37 27 2406 3368 6 8 19 17 421 8420South Cambridgeshire 510 633 959 3 20 26 18 30 22 27 26 36 4063 21299 3 18 13 41 1,183 23666Cambridge city 143 281 493 55 17 24 48 84 98 47 85 60 2560 17005 3 23 74 38 739 14787

Essex, Southend and Thurrock 0Basildon 221 280 114 19 10 2 13 42 4 1190 2941 2 5 22 22 588 11764Braintree 647 659 783 16 3 46 23 68 2785 2425 7 6 33 55 404 8083Brentwood 182 263 204 46 1 4 98 95 99 693 734 5 5 94 99 147 2936Castle Point 66 59 30 0 0 0 79 81 87 427 1880 2 9 70 78 209 4178Chelmsford 544 1045 730 23 14 16 49 54 59 2436 3279 3 5 48 80 656 13116Colchester 566 980 916 5 8 6 55 70 85 2446 7118 3 8 68 88 890 17795Epping Forest 237 280 203 6 1 3 78 71 89 41 28 46 878 1073 2 2 85 93 537 10730Harlow 103 149 96 11 15 0 15 17 20 808 4719 2 12 11 17 393 7865Maldon 161 137 102 2 2 16 55 87 75 535 656 4 5 72 80 131 2624Rochford 129 165 197 3 0 0 30 41 61 602 821 3 4 54 52 205 4105Southend UA 350 384 307 33 3 3 100 100 100 69 108 44 637 1536 2 5 100 94 307 6144Tendring 462 409 253 1 5 3 65 95 95 2420 2539 6 6 39 90 423 8463Thurrock UA 906 957 481 0 0 7 90 79 93 57 39 1907 5649 2 6 71 90 942 18830Uttlesford 153 385 224 0 2 11 54 73 75 1901 3752 5 9 52 48 417 8338

Hertfordshire 0Broxbourne 168 142 255 12 12 29 35 85 49 26 35 104 1139 1985 4 8 44 62 248 4963Dacorum 318 642 430 14 16 7 94 97 94 43 41 71 936 2243 3 7 92 57 320 6409East Hertfordshire 605 376 255 20 9 25 83 82 89 27 54 46 976 5947 1 6 81 38 991 19823Hertsmere 291 100 182 25 29 41 97 88 99 65 23 89 920 1848 4 9 99 89 205 4107North Hertfordshire 724 668 448 7 3 6 30 51 67 34 48 39 1626 2911 2 4 44 44 728 14555St Albans 362 320 226 18 16 3 98 94 91 36 27 29 1010 2121 3 6 88 95 354 7070Stevenage 170 98 22 25 0 0 26 18 5 34 29 37 177 731 1 2 76 58 366 7310Three Rivers 365 233 138 19 39 3 99 100 99 40 79 35 304 991 2 6 96 81 165 3303Watford 62 165 238 0 19 15 100 100 100 129 62 49 737 1930 3 8 99 99 241 4825Welwyn Hatfield 82 478 813 4 46 30 100 52 70 50 54 54 1946 4081 7 14 83 73 292 5830

Norfolk 0Breckland 393 669 612 0 4 6 0 36 59 4023 2265 5 3 31 55 755 15100Broadland 456 459 384 20 4 21 33 16 27 2698 0 4 10 675 13490Great Yarmouth 168 129 197 13 4 8 36 60 39 32 30 1092 1740 4 6 57 44 290 5800King's Lynn&West Norfolk 0 0 488 100 100 15 100 100 34 2486 6425 5 12 41 44 535 10708North Norfolk 258 428 230 11 4 13 92 42 85 26 21 29 1590 1632 5 5 7 71 326 6528Norwich 641 625 548 12 10 20 59 77 76 38 47 47 2351 6594 4 12 90 76 550 10990South Norfolk 508 507 324 2 8 3 23 21 39 17 26 24 1938 6060 3 11 36 19 551 11018

Suffolk 0Babergh 242 510 212 23 9 26 57 39 55 1990 3310 8 13 11 255 5092Forest Heath 147 62 67 0 5 0 52 73 151 637 2894 2 9 4 322 6431Ipswich 347 468 566 9 34 19 77 86 83 25 35 39 1553 7480 2 10 86 76 748 14960Mid Suffolk 314 292 347 4 5 12 46 64 55 25 34 32 1963 2425 5 6 48 50 404 8083St Edmundsbury 338 468 612 14 13 4 45 58 48 28 34 1882 5016 5 13 23 58 386 7717Suffolk Coastal 425 568 455 4 4 3 30 53 47 29 26 21 3345 3474 7 7 38 37 496 9926Waveney 574 436 507 6 3 13 21 25 29 23 24 23 1608 2851 6 10 28 38 285 5702

476800

Housing Completions Housing Commitments

Total Net Completions Affordable Housing CompletionsCompletions on Previously Developed Land (%)

Average Density of Completions (dwellings per ha) Total Net Commitments

Number of years 'supply' in terms of draft East of England Plan

Commitments on Previously Developed Land (%)

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Appendix 10: Previously developed land supply

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Appendix 10: Previously developed land supply

All types

Previously developed vacant land

Derelict land and buildings

Vacant buildings

With planning allocation or permission

Other with known potential

suitable for housing

Bedfordshire and LutonBedford Borough 2 244 1 15 2 264Mid Bedfordshire 3 4 2 192 20 221South Bedfordshire 33 1 6 49 1 90Luton Borough 1 1 0 10 19 31

Cambridgeshire and PeterboroughFenland 3 8 2 19 3 35Peterborough UA 35 744 0 44 30 853Peterborough southern townshipHuntingdonshire 12 0 21 10 39 82East Cambridgeshire 0 2 1 0 3 6South Cambridgeshire 20 1 0 235 8 264Cambridge city 0 0 0 27 6 33

Essex, Southend and ThurrockBasildon 2 0 35 8 18 63Braintree 3 5 2 13 8 31Brentwood 5 0 3 17 6 31Castle Point 2 14 1 54 1 72Chelmsford 0 3 0 96 0 99Colchester 78 1 0 79 17 175Epping Forest 1 5 2 15 17 40Harlow 2 0 0 22 1 25Maldon 1 3 0 5 28 37Rochford 2 4 10 2 0 18Southend UA 0 0 0 5 0 5Tendring 4 4 0 25 31 64Thurrock UA 18 32 0 67 7 124Uttlesford 1 10 0 6 7 24

HertfordshireBroxbourne 0 5 2 10 8 25Dacorum 0 0 1 15 0 16East Hertfordshire 1 0 1 13 2 17Hertsmere 2 0 16 58 6 82North Hertfordshire 0 3 0 4 9 16St Albans 1 0 3 14 8 26Stevenage 0 0 0 5 0 5Three Rivers 0 2 8 4 1 15Watford 0 0 0 7 0 7Welwyn Hatfield 71 0 4 35 0 110

NorfolkBreckland 1 9 0 29 7 46Broadland 1 18 0 11 42 72Great Yarmouth 14 2 1 0 1 18King's Lynn&West Norfolk 15 16 3 30 41 105North Norfolk 3 1 0 7 5 16Norwich 11 16 7 35 15 84South Norfolk 3 5 11 5 13 37

SuffolkBabergh 8 2 29 4 1 44Forest Heath 3 10 5 10 13 41Ipswich 0 0 7 51 8 66Mid Suffolk 1 16 0 0 7 24St Edmundsbury 6 4 3 25 9 47Suffolk Coastal 5 0 1 15 24 45Waveney 1 1 2 11 4 19

Currently in use suitable for housing (hectares)

County / Local Authority

Vacant and derelict land and buildings suitable for housing (hectares)

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Appendix 11: Strategic Sites (without planning permission or otherwise promoted)

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Appendix 11: Future Strategic Sites (under construction and without planning permission)

County / Local Site Capacity Future DevelopmentBedfordshire and LutonBedford Borough Biddenham loop 1,450

Elstow Storage Depot (the 4,500Land to the south of Potton Road 1,450

South Bedfordshire Pratts Quarry, Billington Road 1,200 Area Action Plan to be formulated.Cambridgeshire and Peterborough

Land South of Stanground 1,350 Outline planning permission submitted 2003Peterborough Southern Township 2,675 Under constructionEast of the Railway 1,100Northbridge' Ermine Street 1,050Northstowe new town 8,500 Environmental Statement prepared.Cambourne 1,600 Under constructionHuntingdon Road / Histon Road 1,000 Masterplan required. Cambridge Northern Fringe 1,950 Masterplan required.

Cambridge Southern Fringe 2,640 Area Development Framework will be required. Housing to start soon after 2005.

East Cambridge 9,000 Area Development Framework will be required. Constraints onsite, therefore longer term.

Essex, Southend and ThurrockBasildon The Wick 1,110 Under constructionBraintree Kings Park Village 170 Under constructionColchester Garrison 2,544 Under constructionHarlow Church Langley 276 Under construction

Epping Forest North Weald Airfield 6,000 Local Plan promotes use of site as Airfield / Recreation Use. Allocation dependent on RSS 14 outcome

Harlow: North (Ropemakers) 10,000Harlow: East 3,000

South and West 2,700

Southend New Ranges (Shoeburyness) 1,400

Remain in DPD Core Strategy. Potential to form part of DPD 5 'Criteria based policies and allocations' is expected to be published for consultation in 2007. Council regard site a as conributing in longer term.

Woodlands Park 1,023 Under construction

Great Dunmow 2,650 Outcome of RSS14 EiP will determine future of site. Council currently oppose development of site

Hertfordshire

Broxbourne A10 Corridor / urban extension west of Hoddestone 1,000

Site alloacted and then deleted. Future depends on RSS14 requirments for greenbelt review in Broxbourne and urban capacity findings. If so, review likely to commence in 2008

North Harlow (see Harlow) (see Harlow)Bishop's Stortford, North 2,000 RSS14 Allocation

North of Stevenage 4,400 Outcome of RSS14 EiP will determine future of site. Joint Area Action Plan likely to be developed

Great Ashby 1,662 Under constructionStevenage West 1,000

North Hertfordshire Stevenage West 2,600

Welwyn Hatfield Hatfield Aerodome 1,362 Under constructionNorfolk

Norwich Three Score 1,000 Planning application expected late 2005. Site likely to be developed over 8-10 years.

South Norfolk Costessey, North of River Tud 1,000Site has outline planning permission. 3 detailed applications currently being determind. Unlikely to be fully developed until 2011-2016.

SuffolkForest Heath Red Lodge 1,200 Under constructionIpswich Ravenswood 382 Under construction

Ipswich North Ipswich 1,500Site identified in 2001 Draft Local Plan. Will feature in LDF. However there are several issues regarding exact location of site, and urban capacity of urban area

SUB-TOTAL 75,440UC 14,004TOTAL 89,444

Cambridgeshire

Site allocations to remain the same in LDF. New site allocationdocument will also be publised for consultation in 2008.

Both sites subject to submission of outline applications - inclusion in LDF will depend on application decision

Urban extension to be set out as Joint Area Action Plan. Orinally intended to be built out by 2011. Now seen as longer term site

Mid Bedfordshire

Peterborough UA

Huntingdonshire

Harlow

East Hertfordshire

Stevenage

Northern Extension by 2021. All sites dependent on outcome of RRS14 EiP. LDF has been delayed - Council to begin work on Development Plan Documents in December 2006

Uttlesford

South Cambridgeshire

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Appendix 12: Large sites estimated contribution to RSS14

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Appendix 12: Large sites extimated contribution to RSS14

Site Capacity* (Dwellings) Lag-time

Anticipated submission of

applicationStart End Build period Average

Annual

Build in period to

2021

Anticipated build

Bedfordshire and LutonH6 Biddenham loop 1,450 4 2005 2009 2016 7 200 7 1450Elstow Storage Depot (the Wixhams) 4,500 5 1999 2004 2017 13 350 13 4500Land to the south of Potton Road, east of Biggleswade 1,450 4 2003 2007 2014 7 200 7 1450Pratts Quarry, Billington Road, Leighton Buzzard 1,200 4 2007 2011 2017 6 200 6 1200Cambridgeshire and PeterboroughLand South of Stanground 1,350 4 2003 2007 2014 7 200 7 1350Peterborough Southern Township 2,675 UC N/A 2005 2013 8 350 8 2675East of the Railway (north of Cambridge Road) 1,100 4 2001 2005 2011 6 200 6 1100Northbridge' Ermine Street 1,050 4 2005 2009 2014 5 200 5 1050Northstowe new town 8,500 5 2005 2010 2034 24 350 11 3850Cambourne 1,600 UC N/A 2005 2010 5 350 5 1600North West Cambridge 1,000 4 2008 2012 2017 5 200 5 1000Cambridge Northern Fringe 1,950 4 2007 2011 2021 10 200 10 1950Cambridge Southern Fringe 2,640 5 2007 2012 2023 11 250 11 2640East Cambridge 9,000 5 2012 2017 2043 26 350 4 1400Essex, Southend and ThurrockThe Wick 1,110 UC N/A 2005 2008 3 350 3 1110Kings Park Village 170 UC N/A 2005 2006 1 250 1 170Garrison 2,544 UC N/A 2005 2015 10 250 10 2544North Weald Airfield 6,000 5 2008 2013 2030 17 350 8 2800Church Langley 216 UC N/A 2005 2006 1 350 1 216Harlow: North (Ropemakers) 10,000 5 2008 2013 2042 29 350 8 2800Harlow: East 3,000 5 2008 2013 2022 9 350 8 2800Harlow: South and West 2,700 4 2008 2012 2023 11 250 9 2250Shoeburyness 1,400 4 2008 2012 2019 7 200 7 1400Woodlands Park 1,023 UC N/A 2005 2010 5 200 5 1023Great Dunmow 2,650 4 2009 2013 2024 11 250 9 2250HertfordshireA10 Corridor / West of Hoddesdon 1,000 4 2006 2010 2015 5 200 5 1000Bishop's Stortford, North 2,000 5 2008 2013 2021 8 250 8 2000Stevenage West (Stevenage) 1,000 4 2008 2012 2017 5 200 5 1000Stevenage West (North Hertfordshire) 2,600 5 2008 2013 2023 10 250 8 2000North of Stevenage 4,400 5 2008 2013 2026 13 350 8 2800Great Ashby 1,662 UC N/A 2005 2012 7 250 7 1662Hatfield Aerodrome 1,362 UC N/A 2005 2010 5 250 5 1362NorfolkThree Score 1,000 4 2005 2009 2014 5 200 5 1000Costessey, North of River Tud 1,000 4 2003 2007 2012 5 200 5 1000SuffolkRed Lodge 1,200 UC N/A 2005 2011 6 200 6 1200Ravenswood 382 UC N/A 2005 2007 2 200 2 382North Ipswich 1,500 4 2008 2012 2020 8 200 8 1500

89,384 63,484

Contirbution of all strategic sites 2001-2005 9,505TOTAL 72,989

Page 68: Housing Delivery on Strategic Sites

Housing Delivery on Strategic Sites - Research Study

Appendix 13: Housing Trajectory including Targets and Supply

Page 69: Housing Delivery on Strategic Sites

Appendix 13: East of England Housing Trajectory 2001-2021

Completion rate 200

00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 20/21 21/22Bedfordshire and Luton

Bedford BoroughTARGET - RSS14 MKSM provision to be added 42 42 42 42 42 42 42 42 42 42 42 42 42 42 42 42 42 42 42 42 42 840SUPPLY - Existing Commitments 42 42 42 42 42 42 42 42 42 42 42 42 42 42 588SUPPLY - Strategic Sites

Under development N/ANot started H6 Biddenham loop 1,450 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 250 1450

TOTAL 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 200 200 200 200 200 200 250 0 0 0 0 1450Under / Over Supply

Mid BedfordshireTARGET - RSS14 414 414 414 414 414 414 414 414 414 414 414 414 414 414 414 414 414 414 414 414 414 8280Existing Commitments 414 414 414 414 414 414 414 414 414 414 414 414 414 414 414 414 6624SUPPLY - Strategic Sites

Under development N/ANot started Elstow Storage Depot (the Wixhams) 4,500 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 2800

South of Potton Road, east of Biggleswade 1,450 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 250 1450TOTAL 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 200 400 400 400 400 400 400 450 200 200 200 200 200 200 4250

Under / Over Supply

South BedfordshireTARGET - RSS14 MKSM provision to be added 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 1600Existing Commitments 80 80 80 80 320SUPPLY - Strategic Sites

Under development N/ANot started Pratts Quarry, Billington Road, Leighton Buzzard 1,200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 1200

TOTAL 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 200 200 200 200 200 200 0 0 0 1200Under / Over Supply

LutonTARGET - RSS14 MKSM provision to be added 1253 1253 1253 1253 1253 1253 1253 1253 1253 1253 1253 1253 1253 1253 1253 1253 1253 1253 1253 1253Existing Commitments 1253 1253 1253 1253 1253 1253 1253 1253 1253 1253 1253 1253SUPPLY - Strategic Sites

Under development N/ANot started N/A

TOTAL 0Under / Over Supply

Cambridge and Peterborough

FenlandTARGET - RSS14 505 505 505 505 505 505 505 505 505 505 505 505 505 505 505 505 505 505 505 505 505 10100Existing Commitments 505 505 505 505 505 505 505 505 505 505 5050SUPPLY - Strategic Sites

Under development N/ANot started N/A

TOTALUnder / Over Supply

Peterborough UATARGET - RSS14 1060 1060 1060 1060 1060 1060 1060 1060 1060 1060 1060 1060 1060 1060 1060 1060 1060 1060 1060 1060 1060 21200Existing Commitments 1060 1060 1060 1060 1060 1060 1060 1060 1060 1060 1060 1060 1060 13780SUPPLY - Strategic Sites

Under development Peterborough Southern Township 2,675 281 347 340 378 212 281 281 281 281 281 281 281 281 281 146 2675Not started Land South of Stanground 1,350 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 1400

TOTAL 0 347 340 378 212 281 281 281 481 481 481 481 481 481 346 0 0 0 0 0 0 5352Under / Over Supply

HuntingdoshireTARGET - RSS14 560 560 560 560 560 560 560 560 560 560 560 560 560 560 560 560 560 560 560 560 560 11200Existing Commitments 560 560 560 560 560 560 560 560 560 560 5600SUPPLY - Strategic Sites

Under developmentNot started East of the Railway (north of Cambridge Road) 1,100 200 200 200 200 200 200 100 1100

Northbridge' Ermine Street 1,050 200 200 200 200 200 250 1050TOTAL 0 0 0 0 0 0 200 200 200 200 400 300 200 200 250 0 0 0 0 0 0 2150

Under / Over Supply

East CambridgeshireTARGET - RSS14 430 430 430 430 430 430 430 430 430 430 430 430 430 430 430 430 430 430 430 430 430 8600Existing Commitments 430 430 430 430 430 430 430 430 3440SUPPLY - Strategic Sites

Under development N/ANot started N/A

TOTALUnder / Over Supply

South CambridgeshireTARGET - RSS14 1175 1175 1175 1175 1175 1175 1175 1175 1175 1175 1175 1175 1175 1175 1175 1175 1175 1175 1175 1175 1175 23500Existing Commitments 1175 1175 1175 1175 1175 1175 1175 1175 1175 1175 1175 1175 1175 1175 1175 1175 1175 19975SUPPLY - Strategic Sites

Under development Cambourne 1,600 250 213 337 620 151 250 250 250 250 250 250 100 1600Not started Northstowe New Town 8,000 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 1800

TOTAL 0 213 337 620 151 250 250 250 250 250 250 100 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 4721Under / Over Supply

Cambridge CityTARGET - RSS14 735 735 735 735 735 735 735 735 735 735 735 735 735 735 735 735 735 735 735 735 735 14700Existing Commitments 735 735 735 735 735 735 735 735 735 735 735 735 735 735 735 735 735 12495SUPPLY - Strategic Sites

Under developmentNot started North West Cambridge 1,000 200 200 200 200 200 200 1000

Cambridge Northern Fringe 1,950 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 1800Cambridge Southern Fringe 2,640 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 1800East Cambridge 9,000 200 200 200 200 200 800

TOTAL 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 400 600 600 600 600 800 600 600 600 5400Under / Over Supply

Essex, Southend and Thurrock

BasildonTARGET - RSS14 535 535 535 535 535 535 535 535 535 535 535 535 535 535 535 535 535 535 535 535 535 10700Existing Commitments 535 535 535 535 535 2675SUPPLY - Strategic Sites

Under development The Wick 1,110 200 78 125 76 200 200 200 200 200 100 1100Not started N/A

TOTAL 200 0 78 125 76 200 200 200 200 200 100 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1379Under / Over Supply

BraintreeTARGET - RSS14 385 385 385 385 385 385 385 385 385 385 385 385 385 385 385 385 385 385 385 385 385 7700Existing Commitments 385 385 385 385 385 385 2310SUPPLY - Strategic Sites

Under development Kings Park Village 170 91 55 55 72 91 79 170Not started N/A

TOTAL 0 55 55 72 91 79 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 352Under / Over Supply

BrentwoodTARGET - RSS14 145 145 145 145 145 145 145 145 145 145 145 145 145 145 145 145 145 145 145 145 145 2900Existing Commitments 145 145 145 145 145 725SUPPLY - Strategic Sites

Under development N/ANot started N/A

TOTALUnder / Over Supply

Castle PointTARGET - RSS14 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 4000Existing Commitments 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 1800SUPPLY - Strategic Sites

Under development N/ANot started N/A

TOTALUnder / Over Supply

ChelmsfordTARGET - RSS14 700 700 700 700 700 700 700 700 700 700 700 700 700 700 700 700 700 700 700 700 700 14000Existing Commitments 700 700 700 700 700 3500SUPPLY - Strategic Sites

Under development N/ANot started N/A

TOTALUnder / Over Supply

ColchesterTARGET - RSS14 855 855 855 855 855 855 855 855 855 855 855 855 855 855 855 855 855 855 855 855 855 17100Existing Commitments 855 855 855 855 855 855 855 855 6840SUPPLY - Strategic Sites

Under development Garrison 2,544 200 56 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 144 2544South Woodham Ferrers 4,279 200 20 47 0 0 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 3200

Not started N/ATOTAL 0 20 47 0 56 400 400 400 400 400 400 400 400 400 400 400 400 344 200 200 200 5867

YearTOTAL

RateTOTAL

Page 70: Housing Delivery on Strategic Sites

Under / Over Supply

Epping ForestTARGET - RSS14 550 550 550 550 550 550 550 550 550 550 550 550 550 550 550 550 550 550 550 550 550 11000Existing Commitments 550 550 1100SUPPLY - Strategic Sites

Under development N/ANot started North Weald Airfield 6,000 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 1600

TOTAL 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 1600Under / Over Supply

HarlowTARGET - RSS14 400 400 400 400 400 400 400 400 400 400 400 400 400 400 400 400 400 400 400 400 400 8000Existing Commitments 400 400 400 400 400 400 400 400 400 400 400 400 4800SUPPLY - Strategic Sites

Under development N/ANot started Church Langley 216 200 66 49 35 0 216 216

Harlow: North (Ropemakers) 10,000 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 1600Harlow: East 8,000 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 1600Harlow: South and West 2,700 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 1600

TOTAL 0 66 49 35 0 216 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 5166Under / Over Supply

MaldonTARGET - RSS14 120 120 120 120 120 120 120 120 120 120 120 120 120 120 120 120 120 120 120 120 120 2400Existing Commitments 120 120 120 120 120 600SUPPLY - Strategic Sites

Under development N/ANot started N/A

TOTALUnder / Over Supply

RochfordTARGET - RSS14 230 230 230 230 230 230 230 230 230 230 230 230 230 230 230 230 230 230 230 230 230 4600Existing Commitments 230 230 230 230 920SUPPLY - Strategic Sites

Under development N/ANot started N/A

TOTALUnder / Over Supply

Southend UATARGET - RSS14 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 6000Existing Commitments 300 300 300 300 300 1500SUPPLY - Strategic Sites

Under development N/ANot Started Shoeburyness 1,400 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 1400

TOTAL 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 0 1400Under / Over Supply

TendringTARGET - RSS14 425 425 425 425 425 425 425 425 425 425 425 425 425 425 425 425 425 425 425 425 425 8500Existing Commitments 425 425 425 425 425 425 2550SUPPLY - Strategic Sites

Under development N/ANot started N/A

TOTALUnder / Over Supply

Thurrock UATARGET - RSS14 925 925 925 925 925 925 925 925 925 925 925 925 925 925 925 925 925 925 925 925 925 18500Existing Commitments 925 925 925 925 925 925 5550SUPPLY - Strategic Sites

Under development N/ANot started Thurrock Riverside 7,600 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 1600

TOTAL 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 1600Under / Over Supply

UttlesfordTARGET - RSS14 400 400 400 400 400 400 400 400 400 400 400 400 400 400 400 400 400 400 400 400 400 8000Existing Commitments 400 400 400 400 400 400 400 400 400 3600SUPPLY - Strategic Sites

Under development Woodlands Park 1,023 200 46 46 46 46 200 200 200 200 223 1023Not started N/A

TOTAL 0 46 46 46 46 200 200 200 200 223 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1207Under / Over Supply

Hertfordshire

BroxbourneTARGET - RSS14 255 255 255 255 255 255 255 255 255 255 255 255 255 255 255 255 255 255 255 255 255 5100Existing Commitments 255 255 255 255 255 255 255 255 2040SUPPLY - Strategic Sites

Under development N/ANot started A10 Corridor / Land West of Hoddesdon 1,000 200 200 200 200 200 200 1000

TOTAL 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 200 200 200 200 200 0 0 0 0 0 1000Under / Over Supply

DacorumTARGET - RSS14 315 315 315 315 315 315 315 315 315 315 315 315 315 315 315 315 315 315 315 315 315 6300Existing Commitments 315 315 315 315 315 315 315 2205SUPPLY - Strategic Sites

Under development N/ANot started N/A

TOTALUnder / Over Supply

East HertfordshireTARGET - RSS14 1040 1040 1040 1040 1040 1040 1040 1040 1040 1040 1040 1040 1040 1040 1040 1040 1040 1040 1040 1040 1040 20800Existing Commitments 1040 1040 1040 1040 1040 1040 6240SUPPLY - Strategic Sites

Under development Bishop's Stortford, North 2000 200Not started 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 1600

TOTAL 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 1600Under / Over Supply

HertsmereTARGET - RSS14 210 210 210 210 210 210 210 210 210 210 210 210 210 210 210 210 210 210 210 210 210 4200Existing Commitments 210 210 210 210 210 210 210 210 210 1890SUPPLY - Strategic Sites

Under development N/ANot started N/A

TOTALUnder / Over Supply

North HertfordshireTARGET - RSS14 790 790 790 790 790 790 790 790 790 790 790 790 790 790 790 790 790 790 790 790 790 15800Existing Commitments 790 790 790 790 3160SUPPLY - Strategic Sites

Under development N/ANot started Stevenage West 2,600 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 2600

TOTALUnder / Over Supply

St AlbansTARGET - RSS14 350 350 350 350 350 350 350 350 350 350 350 350 350 350 350 350 350 350 350 350 350 7000Existing Commitments 350 350 350 350 350 350 2100SUPPLY - Strategic Sites

Under development N/ANot started N/A

TOTALUnder / Over Supply

StevenageTARGET - RSS14 320 320 320 320 320 320 320 320 320 320 320 320 320 320 320 320 320 320 320 320 320 6400Existing Commitments 320 320 640SUPPLY - Strategic Sites

Under development Great Ashby 1,662 253 310 264 100 81 253 253 253 253 253 253 144 1662Not started Stevenage West 1,000 200 200 200 200 200 200 1000

North of Stevenage 4,400 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 1600TOTAL 0 310 264 100 81 253 453 453 453 453 453 144 0 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 5017

Under / Over Supply

Three RiversTARGET - RSS14 180 180 180 180 180 180 180 180 180 180 180 180 180 180 180 180 180 180 180 180 180 3600Existing Commitments 180 180 180 180 180 180 1080SUPPLY - Strategic Sites

Under development N/ANot started N/A

TOTALUnder / Over Supply

WatfordTARGET - RSS14 230 230 230 230 230 230 230 230 230 230 230 230 230 230 230 230 230 230 230 230 230 4600Existing Commitments 230 230 230 230 230 230 230 230 1840SUPPLY - Strategic Sites

Under development N/ANot started N/A

TOTALUnder / Over Supply

Page 71: Housing Delivery on Strategic Sites

Welwyn HatfieldTARGET - RSS14 290 290 290 290 290 290 290 290 290 290 290 290 290 290 290 290 290 290 290 290 290 5800Existing Commitments 290 290 290 290 290 290 290 290 290 290 290 290 290 290 4060SUPPLY - Strategic Sites

Under development Hatfield Aerodrome 1,362 200 37 347 435 200 200 200 200 200 200 162 1362Not started N/A

TOTAL 0 0 37 347 435 200 200 200 200 200 200 162 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2181Under / Over Supply

Norfolk

BrecklandTARGET - RSS14 760 760 760 760 760 760 760 760 760 760 760 760 760 760 760 760 760 760 760 760 760 15200Existing Commitments 760 760 760 2280SUPPLY - Strategic Sites

Under development N/ANot started N/A

TOTALUnder / Over Supply

BroadlandTARGET - RSS14 610 610 610 610 610 610 610 610 610 610 610 610 610 610 610 610 610 610 610 610 610 12200Existing Commitments 610 610 610 610 2440SUPPLY - Strategic Sites

Under development N/ANot started N/A

TOTALUnder / Over Supply

Great YarmouthTARGET - RSS14 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 6000Existing Commitments 300 300 300 300 300 300 1800SUPPLY - Strategic Sites

Under development N/ANot started N/A

TOTALUnder / Over Supply

King's Lynn&West NorfolkTARGET - RSS14 550 550 550 550 550 550 550 550 550 550 550 550 550 550 550 550 550 550 550 550 550 11000Existing Commitments 550 550 550 550 550 550 550 550 550 550 550 550 6600SUPPLY - Strategic Sites

Under development N/ANot started N/A

TOTALUnder / Over Supply

North NorfolkTARGET - RSS14 320 320 320 320 320 320 320 320 320 320 320 320 320 320 320 320 320 320 320 320 320 6400Existing Commitments 320 320 320 320 320 1600SUPPLY - Strategic Sites

Under development N/ANot started N/A

TOTALUnder / Over Supply

NorwichTARGET - RSS14 530 530 530 530 530 530 530 530 530 530 530 530 530 530 530 530 530 530 530 530 530 10600Existing Commitments 530 530 530 530 530 530 530 530 530 530 530 530 6360SUPPLY - Strategic Sites

Under development N/ANot started Three Score 1,000 200 200 200 200 200 200 1000

TOTAL 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 200 200 200 200 200 0 0 0 0 0 0 1000Under / Over Supply

South NorfolkTARGET - RSS14 560 560 560 560 560 560 560 560 560 560 560 560 560 560 560 560 560 560 560 560 560 11200Existing Commitments 560 560 560 560 560 560 560 560 560 560 560 6160SUPPLY - Strategic Sites

Under development N/ANot started Costessey, North of River Tud 1,000 200 200 200 200 200 200 1000

TOTAL 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 200 200 200 200 200 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1000Under / Over Supply

Suffolk

BaberghTARGET - RSS14 260 260 260 260 260 260 260 260 260 260 260 260 260 260 260 260 260 260 260 260 260 5200Existing Commitments 260 260 260 260 260 260 260 260 260 260 260 260 260 3380SUPPLY - Strategic Sites

Under development N/ANot started N/A

TOTALUnder / Over Supply

Forest HeathTARGET - RSS14 320 320 320 320 320 320 320 320 320 320 320 320 320 320 320 320 320 320 320 320 320 6400Existing Commitments 320 320 320 320 320 320 320 320 320 2880SUPPLY - Strategic Sites

Under development Red Lodge 1,200 200 50 200 200 200 200 200 200 1200Not started N/A

TOTAL 0 0 0 0 50 200 200 200 200 200 200 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1250Under / Over Supply

IpswichTARGET - RSS14 770 770 770 770 770 770 770 770 770 770 770 770 770 770 770 770 770 770 770 770 770 15400Existing Commitments 770 770 770 770 770 770 770 770 770 770 7700SUPPLY - Strategic Sites

Under development Ravenswood 382 136 60 226 145 182 136 136 110 382Not started North Ipswich 1,500 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 100 1500

TOTAL 0 60 226 145 182 136 136 110 0 0 0 0 0 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 100 2495Under / Over Supply

Mid SuffolkTARGET - RSS14 385 385 385 385 385 385 385 385 385 385 385 385 385 385 385 385 385 385 385 385 385 7700Existing Commitments 385 385 385 385 385 385 2310SUPPLY - Strategic Sites

Under development N/ANot started N/A

TOTALUnder / Over Supply

St EdmundsburyTARGET - RSS14 400 400 400 400 400 400 400 400 400 400 400 400 400 400 400 400 400 400 400 400 400 8000Existing Commitments 400 400 400 400 400 400 400 400 400 400 400 400 400 5200SUPPLY - Strategic Sites

Under development N/ANot started N/A

TOTALUnder / Over Supply

Suffolk CoastalTARGET - RSS14 505 505 505 505 505 505 505 505 505 505 505 505 505 505 505 505 505 505 505 505 505 10100Existing Commitments 505 505 505 505 505 505 505 3535SUPPLY - Strategic Sites

Under development N/ANot started N/A

TOTAL 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Under / Over Supply

WaveneyTARGET - RSS14 290 290 290 290 290 290 290 290 290 290 290 290 290 290 290 290 290 290 290 290 290 5800Existing Commitments 290 290 290 290 290 290 290 290 290 290 2900SUPPLY - Strategic Sites

Under development N/ANot started N/A

TOTALUnder / Over Supply

East of England TOTALS 0TARGET 21711 21711 21711 21711 21711 21711 21711 21711 21711 21711 21711 21711 21711 21711 21711 21711 21711 21711 21711 21711 21711 434220

CUMULATIVE TARGET 21711 43422 65133 86844 108555 130266 151977 173688 195399 217110 238821 260532 282243 303954 325665 347376 369087 390798 412509 434220SUPPLY 1195 1526 1819 1504 2415 2520 2694 3184 3107 3384 2787 3081 4881 4846 3800 3650 3544 3000 3000 2700 58637

CUMULATIVE SUPPLY 1195 2721 4540 6044 8459 10979 13673 16857 19964 23348 26135 29216 34097 38943 42743 46393 49937 52937 55937 58637% Cumulative Supply / Target 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 10 10 11 11 11 12 13 13 13 14 14 14 14

SUPPLY TOTALSUnder development total 1129 1477 1784 1504 2199 2120 2094 1984 1907 1584 1087 681 681 546 400 400 344 200 200 200 22521

Cumulative under development 1129 2606 4390 5894 8093 10213 12307 14291 16198 17782 18869 19550 20231 20777 21177 21577 21921 22121 22321 22521Not started total 66 49 35 0 416 600 800 1400 1400 2000 1900 2600 4200 4300 3400 3250 3200 2600 2600 2300 37116

Cumulative not started 66 115 150 150 566 1166 1966 3366 4766 6766 8666 11266 15466 19766 23166 26416 29616 32216 34816 37116

Page 72: Housing Delivery on Strategic Sites

Housing DeliHousing Delivery on Strategic Sites

Research Study

November 2005

Colin Buchanan45 Notting Hill GateLondonW11 3PBT 020 7309 7000E [email protected]