household fuels - economics, health and safety philip lloyd & george tatham energy research...
TRANSCRIPT
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Household fuels - economics, health and safety
Philip Lloyd & George TathamEnergy Research Institute &
Independent [email protected] [email protected]
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Vision
Everyone should be able to cook and keep warm without threats to their health and well-being
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Goal and Objective Our goal is to understand the
economics of the energy needs of rural households, in the light of: The external costsa arising from health
and safety The problems of delivery
Our objective is to help decision-makers develop policies which will minimise the total costs
a) External costs described later
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Today’s Situation I
Electricity has reached most urban and semi-urban households
Low-income households use an energy mix in which electricity plays a minor role
In low income homes, the thermal needs – cooking and space heating – are met by fuels with high external costs
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Today’s Situation II
The reason we concentrate on the thermal needs is because these are the ones which use most energy
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Today’s Situation III
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
MJ delivered
Planned shack, Cape Town
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
MJ delivered
Planned shack, Kimberley
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
MJ delivered
Planned shack, PWV
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Today’s Situation II
The reason we concentrate on the thermal needs is because these are the ones which use most energy
Most households need < 1000MJ/month This is equivalent to < 9kWh every day
But as electricity is often efficient than other energy sources, 3-5 kWh would be enough
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Cooking – 100 000’s households
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Heating – 100 000’s households
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Summarising today
In households which cannot afford or are out of reach electricity, thermal needs are met by: Wood and paraffin Except, in areas close to mines, by coal.
The average low-income house needs ~1000 MJ/month, equivalent to <10kWh
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How the fuels compare
We now look at each fuel, and compare the pros and cons of each
The “external” costs largely arise from the cons They are the costs born by society
rather than by the user, and not included in the cost of the fuel
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Wood
Primary fuel in KZN, E Cape & Northern P
Low cost Renewable Cheap appliances
Inefficient Emits particulates
(smoke) –respiratory illnesses
Burns Labour cost Deforestation
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Paraffin
600 000 t/a Major in KZN, E Cape,
Gauteng, NW, Free State
Significant in W Cape, Northern, Mp’langa
Cheap appliances Energy swops Multipurpose
145 000 children drink, 55 000 sick, 4000 die
46 000 fires, 50 000 burns, 65 000 homes
63% of burns from appliances exploding
Incendiary Use of IP probably
causes severe respiratory problems
Cross-contamination
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Paraffin Appliance I
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Paraffin Appliance II
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Paraffin Appliance III
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Paraffin cost chain
c/lIndicative
gross margin
Refiner
20
Distributor
20
Price controlled to stockist level –street price varies up to diesel price
Street
Stockist
50-1,50
Router
10
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Paraffin external costs
Poisoning Burns Houses
R500m/a R1170m/a R1300m/a Total ~ R3000m/a
<600 million litres sold to domestic market
External costs > R5/lIf respiratory effects proved, external cost could increase significantly
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Coal
Major in Gauteng, KZN, Free State, Mp’langa
Distribution creates jobs
Multipurpose, including refuse incineration(but less than paraffin)
Appliances costly &/or inefficient
Smoke & dirt Ash disposal Respiratory
disease Asphyxiation,
~500/a
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Coal appliance
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Coal appliance II
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Coal distribution
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Coal cost chainMine
35
Distributor
35
Street
Dealer
125-250
R/tIndicative
gross margin
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Coal external costs Approximately 3 million in close
proximity Asphyxiation by CO ~ 500 deaths/a Respiratory effects probably shorten
lives of 35 000 by 15 years Total costs ~ R3450m/a ~ 1 million tons sold annually External cost R3450/t
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Gas
Small player, used particularly for cooking, in most provinces
LPG main thermal fuel in other developing countries
Very very safe Low emissions
Costly – market imperfections!
Relatively costly appliances
Large investment in cylinders + deposit
Does not allow swops
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Gas cost chainRefinery
65
Distributor
35
Dealer
45
Street
Stockist
90
c/lIndicative
gross margin
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Gas external costs Implication in fires and burns ~ 2%
of that of paraffin No respiratory or poisoning effects Total external cost <R60 million/a 96 million litres (62000t) LPG to low
income market (2000) External cost of <R0.70/litre
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Dung & other biomass
Widespread & significant in most provinces, particularly for heating
Cheap
Some particulates
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Summary of costs
0
10
20
30
40
50
Paraffin Coal Gas
Cents
/M
J ToExternalToStreet price
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Available Options I
Make 5kW cheap electricity available for an hour or so each day Would load Eskom demand excessively Gas-fired stations could resolve this Requires yet further extensions to grid Possible cost ~ R15bn plus R500
million/a for 5 years
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Available Options II
Enforce rigorous standards for safe paraffin appliances, with subsidy to assist purchase Difficult to police change Would have little impact on e.g.
poisoning Probable costs R2bn capital, R350m/a
for 5 years
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Available Options III
Reduce external costs of coal by enforcing use of LSF Under active study by DME Only applicable to <20% of population Costs ~R250 million capex, R50
million/a for 5 years
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Available Options IV Use international LPG experience
Increase tax on paraffin Control price of LPG, after review of LPG
pricing structure Facilitate manufacture of safe cheap
LPG appliances & subsidise purchase Grow distribution via BEE Some capital may be needed to capture
existing excess LPG Total costs of <R1bn and ~R200m/a
for 5 years
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Available Options V Fix specifications for subsidised
housing Improve thermal efficiency
Ceilings Face north
Provide chimneys In both paraffin & coal heated houses CO levels
of >1000 ppm have been measured – dung/biomass heating probably has same effect
Cost < 5% increase in house cost Reduces lifetime cost dramatically
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Recommendations
The electricity option is probably ruled out for several years because of lack of NG and probable NG pricing
The paraffin appliance option seems to costly, & will not stop child deaths, etc
LSF work should continue to be supported
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Recommendations continued
Build on international experience of LPG in developing economies There are exciting possibilities if this
option is supported. They include: Creating lots of jobs in the distribution chain Enabling growth of many SMEE’s
Review building codes for subsidised housing
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Thank you for your attention!