hotel industry overview - hawaii tourism...
TRANSCRIPT
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Hotel Industry Overview Hawai’i Tourism Conference
Vail R. Brown
Vice President, Global Business Development & Marketing
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www.hotelnewsnow.com Click on “Hotel Data Presentations”
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Global In Review
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62.9%
*Global Occupancy, Thru 2nd Quarter 2013
5
-10
0
10
20
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Americas AsiaPac Europe ME/Africa
Global Demand Growth Holds Steady (& ME/A Recovers)
By Continent, Demand % Change, 12 MMA 2007 – 2nd Quarter 2013
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8.6
18.1
11.3
-4.1
7.2
-5.0
5.2
7.7
5.3
1.9
-3.5
8.0
Americas Europe Asia Pac Middle East / Africa
2011 2012 2013
World Regions, RevPAR % Change in USD($) June YTD 2011 - 2013
A Global Slowdown…Except for ME/A
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U.S. In Review
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July YTD 2013: Highest RevPAR Ever (First 7 Months)
% Change
• Room Supply* 1.0 bn 0.8%
• Room Demand* 652 mm 2.3%
• Occupancy 63.2% 1.5%
• A.D.R.* $110 4.0%
• RevPAR* $69 5.6%
• Room Revenue* $72 bn 6.5%
Total U.S.: July YTD 2013 Results * All Time High
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July 2013:
Highest Monthly Room Revenue EVER
($12.2 Billion)
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Favorable Supply / Demand Fundamentals for 2013
-8
-4
0
4
8
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Demand Supply
-6.9%
- 4.7%
Total U.S.: Supply & Demand % Change 12 MMA 1/2000 – 7/2013
8.0%
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OCC Will Continue To Slow. ADR Growth Stalls.
-10
-5
0
5
10
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
OCC % Change ADR % Change
-6.7%
7.5%
-9.7%
4.0%
Total U.S.: ADR & OCC % Change 12 MMA 1/2000 – 7/2013
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Positive RevPAR Growth For The Foreseeable Future
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
-16.8%
-2.6%
-10.1%
9% 8.6%
Total U.S., RevPAR % Change, 12 MMA 1/1990 – 7/2013
65 Months 35 Mo.
112 Months
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U.S. Customer Segmentation In Review
Transient – Third party, rack rate, government rate. Will include single business traveler and leisure traveler.
Group – Rooms booked in blocks of 10 or more.
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Transient Demand Breaks Records, And....
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12.5
15
17.5
20
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2007 2011 2012 2013
Total U.S.: Transient Demand in Millions of Rooms; 2007, 2011, 2012, YTD July 2013 Data is for upper tier hotels only (LUX & UU chains, & Upper Tier independents)
Mill
ion
s
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… Transient ADR Finally Back to 2007 levels.
$140
$150
$160
$170
$180
$190
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2007 2011 2012 2013
Total U.S.: Transient ADR $, 2007, 2011, 2012, YTD July 2013 Data is for upper tier hotels only (LUX & UU chains, & Upper Tier independents)
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Group Rooms Sold Lagging 2012…But…
4
6
8
10
12
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Millio
ns
2007 2011 2012 2013
Total U.S.: Group Demand in Millions of Rooms, 2007, 2011, 2012, YTD July 2013 Data is for upper tier hotels only (LUX & UU chains, & Upper Tier independents)
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… Group ADRs Gaining Momentum
$130
$140
$150
$160
$170
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2008 2011 2012 2013
Total U.S.: Group ADR $, 2008, 2011, 2012, YTD July 2013 Data is for upper tier hotels only (LUX & UU chains, & Upper Tier independents)
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U.S. Markets In Review
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37 mos
41
42
44
47
48
55
55
57
59
59
60
61
62
66
68
71
72
75
75
79
90
83+
94+
97+
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
San Francisco
Miami
Oahu
Boston
Nashville
Los Angeles
Denver
Detroit
Houston
Anaheim
Seattle
Dallas
St. Louis
Minneapolis
Chicago
New Orleans
Tampa
Orlando
New York
Atlanta
Philadelphia
San Diego
Washington
Phoenix
Norfolk
a
Actual
Estimated
RevPAR Peak-Trough-Recovery Timeframe
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$26.97
$22.16
$17.83
$10.63
$4.77 $4.67 $3.74 $1.29 $1.06
-$1.42 -$2.00 -$2.30 -$2.98 -$3.34 -$3.61 -$4.39 -$4.48 -$5.78 -$5.98 -$6.30
-$7.40 -$8.78
-$11.02
-$17.50
-$26.54
Top 25 U.S. Markets, ADR $ Change From Prior Peak, as of July 2013
Peak ADRs Still Off Peak By Over $5 for 8 Of Top Markets
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YTD July Demand Compared to 2007: Transient Drives Recovery
0.0%
-1.1%
7.6%
14.0%
18.6%
23.7%
-0.4%
-16.9%
-9.4%
-5.2% -2.4% -2.9%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Transient
Group
*Segmentation Demand % Change, July YTD 2008 through 2013 vs. July YTD 2007
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Total U.S.: Markets with Most Rooms In Construction July 2013
Market Rooms % of Existing Supply
New York, NY 11,534 10.9
Washington, D.C. 3,248 3.1
Orlando, FL 2,803 2.3
LA-Long Beach, CA 2,132 2.2
Nashville, TN 1,938 5.3
Houston, TX 1,788 2.4
Denver, CO 1,675 4.1
Chicago, IL 1,362 1.3
Miami-Hialeah, FL 1,086 2.3
Philadelphia, PA 1,029 2.3
Some Markets Just Continue To Build…
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Hawai’i In Review
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July YTD 2013: Strong Key Performance Indicators
% Change
• Room Supply 12mm -0.4%
• Room Demand 9.3 mm -0.3%
• Occupancy* 77.8% 0.1%
• A.D.R.* $227.90 11.4%
• RevPAR* $177.42 11.6%
• Room Revenue $2.1bn 11.1%
Hawai’i: July YTD 2013 Results *Highest YTD since 2007
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Hawai’i Transient Demand Has Recovered: July Lagging
400
500
600
700
800
900
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2007 2011 2012 2013
Tho
usa
nd
s
Hawai’i: Transient Demand, 2007, 2011, 2012, July 2013 Data is for upper tier hotels only (LUX & UU chains, & Upper Tier independents)
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Good News….Hawai’i Transient ADR Past Prior Peak
$200
$220
$240
$260
$280
$300
$320
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2007 2011 2012 2013
Hawai’i: Transient ADR $, 2007, 2011, 2012, YTD July 2013 Data is for upper tier hotels only (LUX & UU chains, & Upper Tier independents)
$303.19
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Hawai’i Group Demand Still Off 2007 Peak, But ....
0
50
100
150
200
250
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Th
ou
san
ds
2007 2011 2012 2013
Hawai’i: Group Demand, 2007, 2011, 2012, July 2013 Data is for upper tier hotels only (LUX & UU chains, & Upper Tier independents)
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...Hawai’i Group ADRs Are Strong. Well Done!
$200
$220
$240
$260
$280
$300
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2008 2011 2012 2013
$263.76
Hawai’i: Group ADR $, 2008, 2011, 2012, July 2013 Data is for upper tier hotels only (LUX & UU chains, & Upper Tier independents)
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77.8 84.6 74.9
65.9
$228
$207
$283
$219
Hawai'i Oahu Island Maui Island Hawai'i/Kauai Islands
OCC ADR
Total Hawai’i & Markets, ADR$ in US$ / OCC%, , YTD July 2013
Oahu Has Higher OCC; Maui Higher ADR
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0.1
-0.6
1.2 0.5
11.4
15.4
5.6
9.6
Hawai'i Oahu Island Maui Island Hawai'i/Kauai Islands
OCC % Change ADR % Change
Total Hawai’i & Markets, ADR$ and OCC % Change , YTD July 2013
All RevPAR Growth Driven By ADR Growth
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72.8 69.0 66.0 62.2
$466
$369
$276
$235
Hawai'i Carribbean U.S. Mexico
OCC ADR
Luxury Resorts, Actual OCC and ADR (USD$), YTD July 2013
Hawai’i Luxury Resorts = Higher OCC and ADR
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2.8 2.4 2.1
12.2
8.3
1.1
5.0
3.6
Hawai'i Carribbean U.S. Mexico
OCC % Change ADR % Change
Luxury Resorts, OCC & ADR % Change, YTD July 2013
Strongest OCC Growth Mexico; Hawai’i Strongest ADR
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2013/2014 Outlook
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Total U.S.: Key Performance Indicator Outlook As of May 2013
U.S. Outlook
2013 Forecast
2014 Forecast
Supply 1.0% 1.6%
Demand 2.1% 2.5%
Occupancy 1.1% 0.9%
ADR 4.7% 4.8%
RevPAR 5.8% 5.8%
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Total U.S.: Chain Scale Key Performance Indicator Outlook As of May 2013
2013 Year End Outlook
Chain Scale Occupancy
(% chg) ADR
(% chg) RevPAR (%chg)
Luxury 2.7% 5.9% 8.8%
Upper Upscale 0.3% 4.5% 4.8%
Upscale 1.2% 4.9% 6.2%
Upper Midscale 0.6% 4.2% 4.8%
Midscale 0.1% 2.7% 2.7%
Economy 1.8% 3.4% 5.3%
Independent 1.3% 5.1% 6.4%
Total United States 1.1% 4.7% 5.8%
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Total U.S.: Chain Scale Key Performance Indicator Outlook 2014F As of May 2013
2014 Year End Outlook
Chain Scale Occupancy
(% chg) ADR
(% chg) RevPAR (%chg)
Luxury 0.5% 5.5% 6.1%
Upper Upscale 0.1% 4.3% 4.3%
Upscale 1.3% 4.7% 6.0%
Upper Midscale 0.0% 3.1% 3.1%
Midscale 1.2% 3.1% 4.3%
Economy 1.5% 4.0% 5.6%
Independent 0.9% 6.0% 7.0%
Total United States 0.9% 4.8% 5.8%
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0% to 5% 5% to 10% 10% to 15%
Denver Anaheim Nashville
Minneapolis Atlanta Oahu
New York Boston
Norfolk Chicago
Philadelphia Dallas
Phoenix Detroit
St Louis Houston
Tampa Los Angeles
Washington DC Miami
New Orleans
Orlando
San Diego
San Francisco
Seattle
2013 Year End RevPAR Forecast (2nd Quarter 2013 Forecast – sorted alphabetically)
Top 25 U.S. Markets Outlook for 2013
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2014 Year End RevPAR Forecast (Aug. 2013 Forecast – sorted alphabetically)
-5% to 0% 0% to 5% 5% to 10%
Washington DC Anaheim Atlanta
Chicago Boston
Denver Dallas
Houston Detroit
Nashville Los Angeles
New York Miami
Philadelphia Minneapolis
St Louis New Orleans
Tampa Norfolk
Oahu Orlando
Phoenix
San Diego
San Francisco
Seattle
Top 25 U.S. Markets Outlook for 2014
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Oahu Island Market 2013 & 2014 Outlook
1.4
11.3
12.8
Occupancy ADR RevPAR
2013 Outlook
As of 2nd Quarter 2013 Annual Percentage Change from Prior Year & Estimated KPIs Additional Source: Tourism Economics
85.8% $204 $175
2.5 2.1
4.7
Occupancy ADR RevPAR
2014 Outlook
88% $208 $183
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To Wrap It Up….Takeaways
• Supply Growth: Slow(ly but Surely)
• Demand Growth: Healthy (Despite “Everything”)
• ADR Growth: Drives RevPAR
• Outlook: “Steady As She Goes”
