homes jobs and transport

John Siraut

Homes, Jobs & Transport

John SirautEconomist - Associate DirectorColin Buchanan and Partners

Essex Planning Officers’ Association28 October 2004

John Siraut

Is it better to have homes and jobs located together, and are local links by car better or worse than longer

commutes by train ?

John Siraut

Presentation structure

◆ Homes◆ Work◆ Commuting◆ Economics, Planning, Environment◆ Solutions

John Siraut

Like Father like Son?

Education local local & distant

Jobs 1 7

Homes 1 5

Travel to work cycle/train/bus walk/train/bus/car

John Siraut

Housing demand -Essex◆ Change in population

– 1901-2001 1.1 to 1.6m

◆ Change in household size – 1901-2001 4.6 to 2.4

◆ Extra households – 1901-2001 240k to 670k– 110k due to increase in

population– 320k due to smaller

household size

John Siraut

0.75

0.85

0.95

1.05

1.15

1.25

1.35

1.45

1.55

1.65

1.75

52 Q

454

Q2

55 Q

4

57 Q

2

58 Q

4

60 Q

2

61 Q

4

63 Q

2

64 Q

4

66 Q

2

67 Q

4

69 Q

2

70 Q

4

72 Q

2

73

Q4

75 Q

2

76 Q

4

78 Q

2

79 Q

4

81 Q

2

82 Q

4

84 Q

2

85 Q

4

87 Q

2

88 Q

4

90 Q

2

91 Q

4

93 Q

2

94 Q

4

96 Q

2

97 Q

499

Q200

Q4

02 Q

2

03 Q

4

Housing affordability

John Siraut

Housing starts

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

1946

1948

1950

1952

1954

1956

1958

1960

1962

1964

1966

1968

1970

1972

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

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Housing tenure

◆ Tenure 1914– Owned 10%– Private rented 90%

◆ Tenure 2001– Owned 69%– Social rented 19%– Private rented 10%

John Siraut

Housing & mobility

◆ Homeowner - average occupancy 15 years◆ Renter - average occupancy 10 years but

20% less than 12 months◆ <35 year olds - average occupancy 3 years◆ 60% of movers stay within 5 miles◆ 13% of moves are job related (of which 1/3

new job with new employer)

John Siraut

Men & women

◆ 1900 - workforce 70% male 30% female◆ 1911 - 10% married women in work◆ 2011 - 69% men, 57% women will be

economically active

John Siraut

Employees (Male & Female)

8500

9000

9500

10000

10500

11000

11500

12000

12500

13000

1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

John Siraut

% in same job as 12 months ago

◆ 51% of 18-24 year olds◆ 71% lowest quartile of earnings ◆ 74% of private sector employees◆ <75% of 25-34 year olds◆ 80% in rented accommodation◆ 83% of public sector employees◆ 85% highest quartile of earnings◆ 86% of 50+ year olds◆ 89% of all parents ◆ 91% own accommodation outright

John Siraut

Jobs & housing

◆ 12.5% working population may change jobs each year

◆ 0.33% working population move house to take up a new job with a new employer each year

John Siraut

Method of travel to work 1890-2001

687803112001

45191605131970-79

62423720171940-49

0155172561890-99

CarTrainBusTramCycleWalk

John Siraut

Commuting

John Siraut

Commuting - Essex

◆ Average commute in Essex 8.6 miles◆ Ranges by ward from under 5 in parts of

Colchester to 13 miles in parts of Braintree◆ About 1/3 of males in Essex commute out of

the county for work

John Siraut

Mode of travel to work - Essex

◆ Up to 33% commute by underground in Epping

◆ Over 40% commute by national rail from Chafford

◆ Over 10% commute by bus in Colchester

◆ Over 80% drive in Uttlesford & Braintree

◆ Around 40% drive in Southend

◆ Almost 10% cycle in Harwich

◆ Over 1/3 walk in Uttlesford

John Siraut

Average trip length

1985/6 1992/4 2003 P % increase 2003/1985

Commuting 6.1 7.5 8.5 40%Business 17.3 17.6 20.9 21%Education 2.1 2.8 3.0 46%Escort education 1.4 1.8 2.1 51%Shopping 2.9 3.5 4.3 48%Visiting friends 6.7 7.8 9.2 37%Entertainment 6.0 7.9 8.1 35%All purposes 5.2 6.1 6.9 33%

John Siraut

% commuting by carHarlow

Resident and working within area 53%Working in area but resident outside 86%Resident in area but working elsewhere 70%

Chelmsford


Milton Keynes


John Siraut

Travel costs

◆ In the last decade in real terms– All motoring costs fallen

by 4%– Bus fares increased by

11%– Car purchase costs

fallen by 30%– London commuter rail

fares fallen by 6%

John Siraut

Car ownership

◆ 1951 86% households had no car◆ 2001 26% households had no car◆ 2001 28% households had 2 cars

John Siraut

In summary

◆ Massive increase in households◆ Greater female participation in labour force◆ Massive increase in car ownership◆ Switch from home renting to ownership◆ Travel is cheap ◆ Increase in house prices◆ Greater job mobility

John Siraut

Implications

◆ People less likely to live close to where they work

John Siraut

Economics V Planning V Environment

◆ Free market economy - freedom to choose where we live, work and travel

◆ Planning - land use allocations not determined by free market

◆ Environment - transport is generally not sustainable – CO2 emissions - car output 3.6 * rail

John Siraut

Solutions

◆ Planning – Ensure homes and jobs are co-located– More mixed use developments– Worker homes– But job mobility is higher than housing mobility– In Milton Keynes 20% of population commute out

and 25% of jobs are taken from outside

John Siraut

Solutions

◆ Tied housing– Distant past, common for employers to provide

housing for employees– Recent past most tied housing gone eg police – Present, move towards increase in tied

accommodation – Reduces labour mobility and introduces economic

inefficiencies in the market

John Siraut

Solutions

◆ Increase travel costs– Transport is to cheap leading to substantial

unsustainable commuting– Would lead to major changes in spatial demand

for housing– Politically unacceptable - impossible to put the

genie back in the bottle

John Siraut

Solutions

◆ London– Massive increase in housing provision– Improve education especially in the inner city– Tackle crime– Improve public transport in outer London– Introduce cordon charges for travel into Greater

London

homes jobs and transport

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