home - pices - indo a lugar nenhum ou passar ? · 2015-03-30 · going nowhere or moving on ? how...

Going nowhere or moving on ? How do changes in species distribution

impact marine food webs? Indo a lugar nenhum ou passar ?

Como as mudanças na distribuição das espécies impactar teias alimentares marinhas ?

Coleen Moloney et al. Marine Research Institute

University of Cape Town, SOUTH AFRICA

With thanks to: • Many colleagues

(on whose work I have based this presentation)

• Symposium Organisers and Session Convenor (for financial support and the invitation to speak)

• Google Translate (for the Portuguese text in my slides)

Com agradecimentos a: • Meus colegas

(em cujo trabalho Baseei esta apresentação)

• Simpósio Organizadores e Session Convenor (para apoio financeiro e ao convite para falar)

• Traduz Google (Peço desculpas se algumas das traduções não fazem sentido !)

Sessão 9 Impacto das mudanças climáticas sobre a capacidade de suporte do ecossistema via

deslocalizações espaciais comida web

Session 9 Impact of climate change on ecosystem carrying

capacity via food web spatial relocations

• Observed changes in species distributions across functional groups or trophic levels

• Southern African perspective, coastal ocean • Three case studies • Reflections on key points

• As mudanças observadas na distribuição de espécies entre grupos funcionais ou níveis tróficos

• Perspectiva do Sul Africano, oceano litoral • Três estudos de caso • Alguns pensamentos sobre pontos-chave

STRUCTURE OF THE TALK

© Peter Ryan

Observed changes in species distributions As mudanças observadas na distribuição de espécies

Richardson (2008) ICES Journal of Marine Science 65: 279–295 (after Beaugrand)

Northward shifts of copepod assemblages, North Atlantic

Warm temperate

Subarctic

1958-1981

Northward turnos de assembléias de copépodes , Atlântico Norte

0.00 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.10

0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0

Temperado quente

Subártico

Mean number of species per sample / Número de espécies

por amostra média



Warm temperate

Subarctic

1958-1981 1982-1999


por amostra média


0.00 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.10

0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0

Temperado quente

Subártico



Warm temperate

Subarctic

1958-1981 1982-1999 2000-2002


por amostra média


0.00 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.10

0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0

Temperado quente

Subártico

Atlantic cod Gadus morhua

Perry et al. (2005) Science 308 (5730): 1912-1915

Snake blenny Lumpenus

lampretaeformis

Anglerfish Lophius

piscatorius

Ranges of northward shifts in mean latitudes, North Sea Intervalos de turnos para o norte em latitudes médias, Mar do Norte

Relationship between mean latitude and bottom temperature

Perry et al. (2005) Science 308 (5730): 1912-1915

Relação entre a média latitude e temperatura inferior M

ean

latit

ude

(˚N

)

Winter bottom temperature (˚C) (5-year running mean)

Atlantic cod Gadus morhua

Snake blenny Lumpenus

lampretaeformis

Anglerfish Lophius piscatorius

6 7 8 6 7 8 6 7 8

Temperatura do inverno inferior (C) ( 5 anos média em execução)

Changes in mean latitudes of demersal fishes, chondrichthyans and cephalopods on the west coast of South Africa, 1985–2010

equatorward poleward

Lepidopus caudatus Raja straeleni Holohalaelurus regani Brama brama Caelorinchus bramasimorhynchus Trachurus capensis Raja wallacei Loligo vulgaris Sufflogobius bibarbatus Caelorinchus braueri

-20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10

Yemane et al. (2014) Reviews in Fish Biology and Fisheries 24:463–483

Mudanças nas latitudes médias de peixes demersais, condropterígeos e cefalópodes , na costa oeste da África do Sul , 1985-2010

Hazen et al. (2012) Nature Climate Change DOI: 10.1038/NCLIMATE1686

Predicted mean (+/-SD) habitat change (2001-2100, N. Pacific)

Previsto mudança habitat médio (2001-2100, N. Pacifico)

% Change in core habitat data from Tagging of Pacific Predators Project

© Peter Ryan

What happens to marine food webs when some species leave or new

species arrive?

O que acontece com teias alimentares quando algumas espécies sair ou

novas espécies chegam

Three dramas 1. Benthic, subtidal ecosystem 2. Pelagic upwelling ecosystem 3. Bentho-pelagic upwelling

ecosystem

The eye of a SYSTEMS modeller - simplify O olho de um modelador SYSTEMS - simplificar


ecosystem

Impact of Rock Lobsters

Lead actor Rock Lobster Supporting actors Macrophyte algae Abalone Urchins Cast Scavengers Sessile animals Other gastropods Encrusting coralline algae

Location: SW coast of South Africa

Cape Town

Cape Point Cape

Hangklip

-34.0

-34.4

-34.8

18.0 18.4 18.8 19.2 19.6 20.0

˚S

˚E

Southwest coast of South Africa

40km

Cape Town

Cape Point Cape

Hangklip

-34.0

-34.4

-34.8

18.0 18.4 18.8 19.2 19.6 20.0

˚S

˚E


Kelp Ecklonia maxima 40km

Cape Town

Cape Point Cape

Hangklip

-34.0

-34.4

-34.8

18.0 18.4 18.8 19.2 19.6 20.0

˚S

˚E

40km


Rock lobster Jasus lalandi Kelp

Ecklonia maxima

Juvenile abalone shelter under sea urchins for protection from predators

Abrigo abalone juvenil sob ouriços do mar para proteção contra predadores

Blamey and Branch (2012) Journal of Experimental Marine Biology and Ecology 420–421: 33–47

Scavengers

Sessile animals

Other gastropods

Abalone

Rock lobsters ABSENT

Macroalgae Encrusting coralline algae

Urchins

Lagostas ABSENT

Scavengers

Sessile animals

Other gastropods

Abalone



Urchins

Lagostas ABSENT


Grazing/ Pastando Interactions

Scavengers

Sessile animals

Other gastropods

Abalone



Urchins

Lagostas ABSENT


Grazing/ Pastando Settlement/ Liquidação

Interactions

Scavengers

Sessile animals

Other gastropods

Abalone



Urchins

Lagostas ABSENT


Grazing/ Pastando

Removal/ Remoção Settlement/ Liquidação

Interactions

Scavengers

Sessile animals

Other gastropods

Abalone



Urchins

Lagostas ABSENT


Facilitation/ Facilitação

Grazing/ Pastando


Interactions

Scavengers

Sessile animals

Other gastropods

Abalone



Urchins

Lagostas ABSENT Rock lobsters PRESENT

Lagostas PRESENTE



Grazing/ Pastando


Interactions

Scavengers

Sessile animals

Other gastropods

Abalone



Urchins

Lagostas ABSENT

No Urchins

Rock lobsters PRESENT Lagostas PRESENTE



Grazing/ Pastando

Predation/ Predação


Interactions

Scavengers

Sessile animals

Other gastropods

Abalone



Urchins

Lagostas ABSENT

No Urchins




Grazing/ Pastando


Removal/ Remoção

Shading/ Shading

Settlement/ Liquidação

Interactions

Scavengers

Sessile animals

Other gastropods

Abalone



Urchins

Lagostas ABSENT

No Urchins


Competition/ Concorrência


Grazing/ Pastando


Removal/ Remoção

Shading/ Shading

Settlement/ Liquidação

Interactions


The “Rambo” effect Efeito de "Rambo"

Reflections.... • Trophic cascade (Blamey and Branch 2012) • Interactions strongly affected by fishing • Historical overfishing reduced ecosystem resilience

(Blamey et al. 2014) Algumas reflexões... • Cascata trófica (Blamey and Branch 2012) • Interações fortemente afetada pela pesca • Historical sobrepesca reduziu a resiliência dos

ecossistemas (Blamey et al. 2014)

Predictable in advance using models?

Previsível com antecedência usando modelos ?


ecosystem

Lead actors Small pelagic fishes (anchovy and sardine)

Supporting actors Plankton Predators (seabirds) Pelagic fishery Location: Eastern boundary upwelling ecosystem, South

Africa

SOUTHERN BENGUELA

Predators Predadores

Forage Fish Peixe forrageiro

Zooplankton Zooplâncton

Primary producers Produtores primários

Southern Benguela Pelagic Foodweb

Roy et al. (2007) African Journal of Marine Science 29:309

Biom

ass

(‘000

tonn

es)

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

Anchovy spawner biomass: west & east of Cape Agulhas

0

20

40

60

80

1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

% S

paw

ner

biom

ass

Biomassa spawner anchova: oeste e leste de Cape Agulhas

Mean location of sardine catches: 1987-2004

Note that the coast has been linearized

Fairweather et al. (2006) African Journal of Marine Science 28: 661-680

Local das capturas de sardinha média: 1987-2004

Note-se que a costa foi linearizado

Sardine biomass distribution: 1984-2004

Note that the coast has been linearized

Fairweather et al. (2006) African Journal of Marine Science 28: 661-680

Note-se que a costa foi linearizado

Distribuição de biomassa sardine: 1984-2004

Images: Peter Ryan

Cape Gannets and African Penguin

© Peter Ryan

Crawford et al. (2015) Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution 3: Article 10

30

20

10

0 Thou

sand

s of

pai

rs

SOUTH AFRICA

Cape Town

Cape Agulhas

Port Elizabeth

Durban 1978/9

2000

2013

African Penguin

SOUTH AFRICA

Port Elizabeth

Durban

100

50

0 Thou

sand

s of

pai

rs

Images: Peter Ryan Crawford et al. (2015) Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution 3: Article 10

1978/9

2000

2013

Cape Gannet

Cape Town

© Peter Ryan

Lambert’s Bay fishing harbour

2012 Cannery converted to potato processing

from http://trawlerheritage.co.za/

1990s purse seine fleet

Jarre, Ragaller, Hutchings (2013). Ecology and Society.

Fábrica de conservas convertido para o processamento de batata

frota de cerco

Reflections.... • Did plankton prey increase / decrease? • Did fish predators decrease / increase? • Are there compensatory mechanisms?

Algumas reflexões... • Será que aumento plâncton presa / diminuir? • Será que os predadores de peixes aumentar /

diminuir? • Existem mecanismos de compensação?

Lots of linkages Lotes de ligações

Predictable in advance using models?

Previsível com antecedência usando modelos ?

Three dramas 1. Inshore, subtidal ecosystem 2. Pelagic upwelling ecosystem 3. Bentho-pelagic upwelling

ecosystem

Lead actors Sardine Bearded goby Supporting actors Jellyfish Horse mackerel Predators (seabirds) Pelagic fishery Location: Eastern boundary upwelling ecosystem,

Namibia

NORTHERN BENGUELA

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Catc

h ('0

00 t)

Year

Namibian sardine catch (1950-2003)

Boyer & Boyer (2004) FAO Fisheries Report No. 782

Sulphidic diatomaceous mud (1-2 mmol Total Sulphide)

Horse mackerel

Tem

paer

taur

e (˚

C) a

nd D

epth

(m)

% O

xygen saturation

10%

0.4%

18˚C 0m

60m

Jellyfish

DAY NIGHT

13˚C 120m

Utne-Palm et al. (2010) Science 329, 333

Benthos / Detritus

Primary producers

Jellyfish Goby

Horse mackerel

Predators

Seabirds Fishery

Sardine

Modified after Roux et al. (2013) Bulletin of Marine Science 89: 249-284

Zooplankton

Pre 1970s – sardine abundant

Benthos / Detritus

Primary producers

Jellyfish Goby

Horse mackerel

Predators

Fishery

Sardine


Zooplankton

Seabirds

Pre 1970s – sardine abundant

Benthos / Detritus

Primary producers

Jellyfish Goby

Horse mackerel

Predators

Seabirds

Fishery

Sardine


Zooplankton

Current – sardine scarce

Benthos / Detritus

Primary producers

Jellyfish Goby

Horse mackerel

Predators

Seabirds

Fishery


Zooplankton

Sardine

The small bottom-feeder triumphs...

Os pequenos triunfos bottom-alimentadores...

Reflections.... • The main interactions have shifted deeper • Bearded goby is a remarkable little beast!

Algumas reflexões... • As principais interações mudaram mais profunda • Goby Bearded é um notável pouco besta !

Were these three outcomes predictable in advance using our current models?

NO / NÃO

Foram estes três resultados previsíveis com antecedência usando nossos modelos atuais ?

Some key aspects required system-specific knowledge

Alguns aspectos do conhecimento específico do sistema exigido

A way forward: • Make system-specific details into globally-

applicable characteristics • Learn from others elsewhere – the comparative

approach

Um caminho a seguir: • Faça detalhes específicos do sistema em

características globalmente aplicáveis • Aprender com os outros em outros lugares - a

abordagem comparativa

Muizenberg Beach, South Africa, Oct 2009

Thank you Obrigado

home - pices - indo a lugar nenhum ou passar ? · 2015-03-30 · going nowhere or moving on ? how...

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