Holt MS

Sarah McKenzie PhD

October 27, 2009

Staff Questions:

Q) Is one test more difficult than another? How do we know that if the scale score falls that this means they actually regressed? Is the 4th grade actually easier like we hear it is?

A) The scale is what it is- all tests are, in theory, equally difficult- based on state standards.

Staff Questions:

Q) Why are literacy scores across the nation lower than math scores – HMS also- for AR

A) Good- Question- ?Greater variability in scores on literacy assessments.

ARKANSAS SAT 10 Reading 2008-2009

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

Grade

NPR

2008

2009

Arkansas SAT 10 Reading

FPS SAT 10 Reading 2008-2009

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

Grade

NPR

2008

2009

FPS SAT 10 Reading

ARKANSAS SAT 10 Math 2008-2009

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

Grade

NPR

2008

2009

Arkansas SAT 10 Math

FPS SAT 10 Math 2008-2009

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

Grade

NPR

2008

2009

FPS SAT 10 Math

Staff Questions:

Q) Need access to 5th grade scores – 6th grade teachers

A) Color Charts

Staff Questions:

Q) What are schools (with our demographics – and whose students are scoring much higher) doing differently than us?

• Holt FRLP-49% Enroll=375

• http://normessasweb.uark.edu• Schoolperformance• Advanced Compare

Staff Questions:Grade School L% Content Style SF U Mech

6th Holt 74 5.8 5.8 6.5 6.9 6.6

PG 79 6.2 6.3 7.1 7.2 6.8

Harrison 85 6.2 6.2 6.8 7.0 6.6

Searcy 88 6.3 6.4 7.1 7.2 6.9

7th Holt 73 5.8 5.8 7.1 7.4 7.2

Searcy 80 6.3 6.3 7.3 7.5 7.1

BVille 82 6.3 6.3 7.2 7.5 7.3

Pea Ridge 82 6.2 6.3 7.3 7.5 7.3

Staff Questions:

Q) Do we have statewide information about:– Average scale score growth– # moving up or down in proficiency levels

A) Not at this time....

Making Growth• Concern:

– Difficult to measure growth of students whose scale score points were already high – where can they go?

• Answer: District Growth Ratio:– Expected growth based on district performance of ‘like’

students- by Grade and Proficiency Class– Based on prior year’s score...

• 50 = same growth as experienced by other students • Above 50- more growth than experienced by other students• Below 50- less growth than experienced by other students

Math ExampleStudent 2008

Scsc2008 PRCL

2009 Scsc

2009 PRCL

DGR-Math

Kaitlyn 626 Pro. 775 Adv. 56.42

Susan 626 Pro. 704 Pro. 50.33

Andrew 626 Pro. 663 Pro. 46.83

District Growth RatioGrade 2008 Proficiency

ClassN

LitLit DGR N

MathMath GDR

6-Sixth 1-Below Basic 11 47.36 29 49.71

2-Basic 37 52.24 25 51.10

3-Proficient 68 50.56 72 51.20

4-Advanced 50 49.99 40 53.41

7-Seventh 1-Below Basic 6 54.64 6 54.94

2-Basic 33 48.04 15 47.25

3-Proficient 49 50.21 45 45.95

4-Advanced 56 51.08 79 46.13

Literacy Movement over time...School

Grade 2008-09

Percent increased/ decreased

a level

Holt 6 Literacy BB B P ABB 2 8 0 0 42.86%B 0 22 12 3P 0 5 38 25A 0 0 10 40 9.68%

Grade

2008-097 Literacy BB B P A

BB 4 1 1 0 29.41%B 1 17 12 1P 1 6 32 10A 0 0 18 36 19.40%

Grade 2007-08

6 Literacy BB B P ABB 6 9 0 0 51.79%B 2 24 24 0P 0 3 19 25A 0 0 4 28 6.98%

Grade 2007-08

7 Literacy BB B P ABB 3 7 0 0 33.67%B 0 22 8 1P 0 6 35 17A 0 0 13 34 13.97%

2008

2009

2008

2008

2007

2007

2008

2009

Math Movement over time...School

Grade 2008-09

Percent increased/ decreased

a level

Holt 6 Math BB B P ABB 2 14 11 0 78.99%B 1 6 13 4P 1 0 19 52A 0 0 0 40 1.47%

Grade

2008-097 Math BB B P A

BB 5 1 0 0 26.53%B 8 3 2 1P 5 8 27 3A 0 1 19 58 15.59%

Grade 2007-08

6 Math BB B P ABB 4 15 11 2 84.26%B 0 3 18 7P 0 0 17 38A 0 0 1 28 0.89%

Grade 2007-08

7 Math BB B P ABB 7 3 0 0 23.88%B 5 7 8 2P 2 10 22 3A 0 3 15 59 25.74%

2009

2008

2009

2008

2007

2007

2008

2008

AYP: Who is Counting

• Oct 1 enrollment: – 219 FRLP– 83 AA, 58 Hispanic, 257 Caucasian– 44 LEP (per ESL data)

– 54 Special Education

SPED ‘09 performance

• 44 SPED students have 09 data– 9/44 proficient in literacy ‘09 (20.5%)– 15/44 proficient in math ‘09 (34.1%)

• No 09 data for 10 SPED students

In order to make SH for literacy- need to have 45.2% proficient (25/54 students)

Predicting the Future!

Identifying Students Most Likely to Score Not Proficient

• Identify relationships between student performance from one year to the next

• Based on historical data• Not indicating how it COULD be or SHOULD be,

just how it has been• Lots of factors influence performance

– Learning context, individual characteristics, etc.

You can change the future!

Students ‘Grow’ at Different Rates

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000

Literacy Score Grade 3

Literacy Score Grade 4

Anna

Gabriel

Christine

Sam

330 in 3rd grade667 in 4th grade

763 in 3rd grade798 in 4th grade

683 in 3rd grade534 in 4th grade

235 in 3rd grade 402 in 4th grade

Students Grow at Different Rates

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000

Grade 3 Scaled Score

Grade 4 Scaled ScoreNot ProficientGrade 3 and Grade 4

Not Proficient Grade 3Proficient Grade 4

Proficient Grade 3Not Proficient Grade 4

Proficient Grade 3 and Grade 4

Cut Score- 3rd grade

Cut Score- 4th grade

WARNING

The following slides contain material that is graphic and mathematical in nature.

Persons with limited math experience or extreme math anxiety should breathe deeply several times!

Predicted Literacy Proficiency for those with 09 data (AYP=67.6%)

• Caucasian 86.3 % (196/227)

• Combined 79.2% (290/366)

• Hispanic 70.0 % (35/50)

• FRLP 65.2 % (124/190)

• AA 63.4 % (51/78)

• SPED 25.0% (11/44)

Predicted BM Math Proficiency for those with 09 data (AYP=64.55%)

• Caucasian 92.1 % (209/227)

• Combined 88.0% (323/367)

• Hispanic 92.2 % (47/51)

• FRLP 81.7 % (156/191)

• AA 73.1 % (57/78)

• SPED 47.7% (21/44)

So What?• Such identification allows for more focused

INTERVENTION- maximizing your resources for those kids who need it the most

• These students could benefit from something MORE or DIFFERENT than all those great things you are

already doing

YOU can change the future!

What this DOESN’T Mean• Not a guarantee- just a best guess • Based on what you have already been

doing- keep doing that!• Not a one-size fits all- each kid is

different• Models will continue to be refined and

developedIncorporating other data sources

Make it and take it..

• Data sets (in Excel) including data for students identified as being AT HIGH RISK for scoring not proficient in the Spring in Math and/or Literacy

• Literacy: 56 gr.6 / 63 gr.7• Math: 33 gr.6 / 53 gr.7• Both: 30 gr.6 / 43 gr.7

– SPED: 13 gr.6 / 19 gr.7