holographic economics · holographic economics mike warner ceo, founder. somedisclaimers andcaveats...
TRANSCRIPT
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Holographic Economics
Mike WarnerCEO, Founder
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Some disclaimers and caveats
Background on your speaker today• not an economist• nor a mathematician• philosopher, information architect, ontologist, CEO
Foreground on the topic today• It involves a „big‟ idea• It involves software technology• Interactive, multi-user, evolutionary seedling
Thinking out loud is strongly encourage
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Agenda
• Introduction• Tour• Live experiment
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Agenda (details)
• Introduction– The problem– The idea– The platform
• Tour– Global risk dashboard– Interbank payments– Adopt a model
• Live experiment
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INTRODUCTION
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The problem
Old solutions and a new world
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Problem
No new significant interface to information since the invention of paper.
Files & folders
Ledgers & calculators
Spaces & unified model
Reports
Statistics
Visual (digital) language
Words
Numbers
| Solution
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Seeing the whole? | Easy! Done.
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What if this were the only tool your doctor had?
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Such complex systems give rise to contextual wicked problems
Modern System Problems• There is no definitive formulation • Every wicked problem is essentially unique• There is no well-described set of permissible operations to incorporate into a plan
Challenges to Managing Systemic Systems • There is no immediate or ultimate test for what constitutes a solution• Solutions are never true-or-false, but better or worse. • Every wicked problem can be considered to be a symptom of another problem• Discrepancies can be explained in numerous ways. The choice of explanation impacts the nature of the
problem's resolution
Characteristics of Good Solutions to Wicked Problems • Every solution is a "one-shot operation"; there is no opportunity to learn by trial-and-error• Wicked problems have no stopping rule – statistics fail to “tame the continuum of time.”• Planners are liable for the consequences of the actions they generate
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The idea
A new approach
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holographic economics | etymology
ὅλος rραφή οἰκονόμος
hólos grafē oeconomia
Graph the whole wealth & resources of a countryworld
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There is always a place for this…
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What if you want more than a pulse?
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Holographic Economics | illuminate the system
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Holographic Economics | capture meaning across multiple scales of information
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These scales of information display the properties of complex systems
Structural complexity | connections across layers of systems
Network evolution | connections change over time
Connection diversity | different weights to different connections
Dynamical complexity | behaviors change over time
Object diversity | different types of things in system
Meta-complication | all of the above can influence each other
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The platform
The world beyond windows
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Interbank Payments | We‟ve started with a sub-system…
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Movie file here showing system applied to banking(not included in PDF)
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Adjacent Technologies | Quantum4D is like…
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Quantum4D exposes a system for modeling systems using basic concepts to provide a visual conceptual framework for managing complex systems
Concept Description Example Icon
Space context/position An industry
Time animation The „4th‟ dimension
Lens way of seeing „EPS View’
Objects people, places, things A company
Relations connections Sales to customers
Attributes raw data Product Prices
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1:1
These basic concepts overlay and render transparent to the end users traditional „heavy‟ or „esoteric‟ ontology schematics
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Quantum4D allows a user to navigate, parse and concatenate multiple perspectives on multiple sub-spaces of a larger scale total system space called the Metabase.
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Spaces| Navigate free/fee public data, models & views
Currently with 25,000 dynamically updating time series in 10,000 spacesMost country and industry structures (OECD groups, NAICS, SIC, GICs) pre-built.
Simply copy and paste into your personal or enterprise repository for private reuse/mash-up
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Lens | Create, save and share ways of seeing
1
Start with domain (Dow 30)
Choose from list of available ways of viewing the associated data
View data through templates saved by other users.Add notes on views to share with other users.
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USThe Beige BookMarch 4th 2009Reports from the twelve Federal Reserve Districts suggest that national economic conditions deteriorated further during the reporting period of January through late February. Ten of the twelve reports indicated weaker conditions or declines in economic activity; the exceptions were Philadelphia and Chicago, which reported that their regional economies "remained weak." The deterioration was broad based, with only a few sectors such as basic food production and pharmaceuticals appearing to be exceptions.
Objects | people, places, products
Attribute RepositoryAircraft departuresArms imports (% of total imports)Barrels of Crude Oil per Metric TonCurrent expenditure (current LCU)Adjusted savings: consumption of fixed capital (% of GNI)Agricultural machinery, tractors per 100 hectares of arable landCereal yield (kg per hectare)Agriculture value added per worker (constant 1995 US$)Adjusted savings: mineral depletion (% of GNI)Domestic financing, total (% of GDP)CO2 emissions (kg per 1995 US$ of GDP)…
Usages (ways of seeing)
Sub-spaces (inside)
Relations (invoke/expand)
News, events, analysis (URLs)
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Relations |
Attribute Repository Sub-relations (inside) Analytic (flow/formulas)
DirectionalityBoth-directions (US->UK, US<-UK)
One Direction (CH->US)Bi-directional (not shown <->)
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Attributes
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Global risk dashboard
Building a shared intelligence module
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Step 1 | Search for source data by concept and/or country
Search by name.
Navigate via tree.
Navigate by source, topic, region or drag and drop to create your own taxonomy on the fly.
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Step 2 | View, select and download your desired results.
Select and download data to Excel® spreadsheets, Eviews® or other applications.
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Step 3 | Copy your model formulas
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Step 3 | Paste formulas into Quantum4D
Paste formulas here
Select time range
Scroll through time
Data resident on the “Iceland” object is channeled through the model and into the display.All models are refreshed as new data become available (these can trigger alerts in other spaces).
No programming necessary
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Share| Save, apply to all countries, share
View side by side (above) or drill down to view one at a time (previous slide - Iceland)
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Davos | Connect dashboard with other models
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Interbank Payments
Visualizing counter-party risk
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It is easier to connect the dots once you can see them
Source: Capital IQ
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Income Statement (JP Morgan)