holliday’s holiday horoscope – 2006
DESCRIPTION
Holliday’s Holiday Horoscope – 2006. Telecommunications. Telecommunications Forecasts. Telecommunications Forecasts for the New Year. Capital Expenditures. Capital Expenditures. Capital Expenditures. We forecast a 10% increase (2006 over 2005) in telecommunications capital expenditures. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: Holliday’s Holiday Horoscope – 2006](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062518/5681427e550346895daeab62/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
![Page 2: Holliday’s Holiday Horoscope – 2006](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062518/5681427e550346895daeab62/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Telecommunications
![Page 3: Holliday’s Holiday Horoscope – 2006](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062518/5681427e550346895daeab62/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Telecommunications Forecasts
![Page 4: Holliday’s Holiday Horoscope – 2006](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062518/5681427e550346895daeab62/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Telecommunications Forecasts for the New Year
![Page 5: Holliday’s Holiday Horoscope – 2006](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062518/5681427e550346895daeab62/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Capital Expenditures
![Page 6: Holliday’s Holiday Horoscope – 2006](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062518/5681427e550346895daeab62/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Capital Expenditures
![Page 7: Holliday’s Holiday Horoscope – 2006](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062518/5681427e550346895daeab62/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Capital Expenditures
We forecast a 10% increase (2006 over 2005) in telecommunications capital expenditures
![Page 8: Holliday’s Holiday Horoscope – 2006](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062518/5681427e550346895daeab62/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
![Page 9: Holliday’s Holiday Horoscope – 2006](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062518/5681427e550346895daeab62/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
1. In 2006, we predict h-s access will achieve 48% - 50% penetration by year’s end.
![Page 10: Holliday’s Holiday Horoscope – 2006](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062518/5681427e550346895daeab62/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Household Penetration of H-S Accesses
0.00%
10.00%
20.00%
30.00%
40.00%
50.00%
60.00%
70.00%
80.00%
90.00%
4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4
20002001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
![Page 11: Holliday’s Holiday Horoscope – 2006](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062518/5681427e550346895daeab62/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Household Penetration of H-S Accesses
0.00%
10.00%
20.00%
30.00%
40.00%
50.00%
60.00%
70.00%
80.00%
90.00%
4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4
20002001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
![Page 12: Holliday’s Holiday Horoscope – 2006](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062518/5681427e550346895daeab62/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
1. In 2006, we predict h-s access will achieve 48% - 50% penetration by year’s end.
2 . For 2006, we predict that the telcos will achieve parity with the cable companies by the end of the year.
![Page 13: Holliday’s Holiday Horoscope – 2006](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062518/5681427e550346895daeab62/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Forecast for xDSLs and Cable Modems
0
5,000,000
10,000,000
15,000,000
20,000,000
25,000,000
30,000,000
35,000,000
40,000,000
45,000,000
4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
xDSL
Cable Modems
![Page 14: Holliday’s Holiday Horoscope – 2006](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062518/5681427e550346895daeab62/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
Forecast for 2006 xDSL Overtqaking CMs
0
5,000,000
10,000,000
15,000,000
20,000,000
25,000,000
30,000,000
35,000,000
40,000,000
45,000,000
4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Parity!!
![Page 15: Holliday’s Holiday Horoscope – 2006](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062518/5681427e550346895daeab62/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
![Page 16: Holliday’s Holiday Horoscope – 2006](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062518/5681427e550346895daeab62/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
We predict Network Traffic will increase as much as 150% for 2006.
![Page 17: Holliday’s Holiday Horoscope – 2006](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062518/5681427e550346895daeab62/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
Network Backbone Traffic
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Voice Traffic
Dail-Up Data Traffic
H-S Access Traffic
Total Backbone Traffic
![Page 18: Holliday’s Holiday Horoscope – 2006](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062518/5681427e550346895daeab62/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
![Page 19: Holliday’s Holiday Horoscope – 2006](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062518/5681427e550346895daeab62/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
![Page 20: Holliday’s Holiday Horoscope – 2006](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062518/5681427e550346895daeab62/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
![Page 21: Holliday’s Holiday Horoscope – 2006](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062518/5681427e550346895daeab62/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
![Page 22: Holliday’s Holiday Horoscope – 2006](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062518/5681427e550346895daeab62/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
We predict that one or more of the large, traditional telecom equipment vendors will be involved in a major merger, or will leave the
US market.
![Page 23: Holliday’s Holiday Horoscope – 2006](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062518/5681427e550346895daeab62/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
Yahoo
Microsoft
Vonage
Skype
E-Bay
NEW COMPETITORS
![Page 24: Holliday’s Holiday Horoscope – 2006](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062518/5681427e550346895daeab62/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
Yahoo
Microsoft
Vonage
Skype
E-Bay
We predict that these New Competitors will have much more active participation in the telecom market place, and by the end of the year one or more will begin to
be viewed as more competitor than customer.
NEW COMPETITORS
![Page 25: Holliday’s Holiday Horoscope – 2006](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062518/5681427e550346895daeab62/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
![Page 26: Holliday’s Holiday Horoscope – 2006](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062518/5681427e550346895daeab62/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
We predict that the network access sharing rules will continue favoring the incumbent carriers; that the Internet will continue untaxed; and that any prospective telecom
vendor merger will be allowed.
![Page 27: Holliday’s Holiday Horoscope – 2006](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062518/5681427e550346895daeab62/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
Network Modernization
![Page 28: Holliday’s Holiday Horoscope – 2006](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062518/5681427e550346895daeab62/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
We predict a definitive movement towards a NGN in 2006.
Network Modernization
![Page 29: Holliday’s Holiday Horoscope – 2006](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062518/5681427e550346895daeab62/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
Network Modernization - ROADMs
R-OADM
EXPRESS WLs
Drop WLs Add WLs
DWDM DWDM
R-OADMs – The Lightwave Under Control!
![Page 30: Holliday’s Holiday Horoscope – 2006](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062518/5681427e550346895daeab62/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
Network Modernization - ROADMs
We predict that there will be substantial deployment of ROADMs in 2006.
R-OADM
EXPRESS WLs
Drop WLs Add WLs
DWDM DWDM
R-OADMs – The Lightwave Under Control!
![Page 31: Holliday’s Holiday Horoscope – 2006](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062518/5681427e550346895daeab62/html5/thumbnails/31.jpg)
Fiber To The Premises
![Page 32: Holliday’s Holiday Horoscope – 2006](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062518/5681427e550346895daeab62/html5/thumbnails/32.jpg)
FTTP
![Page 33: Holliday’s Holiday Horoscope – 2006](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062518/5681427e550346895daeab62/html5/thumbnails/33.jpg)
We predict that SBC will enter the FTTP arena early in 2006 and that BellSouth will begin a similar program by the end of the year.
FTTP
![Page 34: Holliday’s Holiday Horoscope – 2006](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062518/5681427e550346895daeab62/html5/thumbnails/34.jpg)
So, there are our predictions for 2006. We hope they will be useful to you, or at least have offered you a laugh or two.
Happy New Year to all!
We forecast a 10% increase (2006 over 2005) in telecommunications capital expenditures
In 2006, we predict h-s access will achieve 48% - 50% penetration by year’s end.
For 2006, we predict that the telcos will achieve parity with the cable companies by the end of the
year.
We predict Network Traffic will increase as much as 150% for 2006
1
2
3
4
![Page 35: Holliday’s Holiday Horoscope – 2006](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062518/5681427e550346895daeab62/html5/thumbnails/35.jpg)
We predict that one or more of the large, traditional telecom equipment vendors will be involved in a major merger, or will
leave the US market.
We predict a definitive movement towards a NGN in 2006.
We predict that these new competitors will have much more active participation in the telecom market place, and by the end of the year
one or more will begin to be viewed as more competitor than customer.
We predict that the network access sharing rules will continue favoring the incumbent carriers; that the Internet will continue
untaxed; and that any prospective telecom vendor merger will be allowed.
We predict that there will be substantial deployment of ROADMs in 2006.
We predict that SBC will enter the FTTP arena early in 2006 and that BellSouth will begin a similar program by the end of the year.
5
6
7
8
9
10
![Page 36: Holliday’s Holiday Horoscope – 2006](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062518/5681427e550346895daeab62/html5/thumbnails/36.jpg)
Holliday's Holiday Horoscope
Brought to you each year by
IGI Consulting, Inc.
&
B & C Consulting Services
See our latest reports and services at
www.igigroup.com
617-782-5033