historical perspective: ace index

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Historical Perspective: ACE Index Active Decades Active Decades Active Decade Active Decade Above Above Normal Normal Season Season Near Near Normal Normal Below Below Normal Normal Season Season IN-active Decades IN-active Decades 0 50 100 150 200 250 1950 1953 1956 1959 1962 1965 1968 1971 1974 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 A C E (x10,000 kt 2 ) Atlantic Basin Main Atlantic Basin Main Development Region Development Region 65 65 10 10 3 3 Moderate and Strong El Niño during July-September (CPC Official) Moderate and Strong El Niño during July-September (CPC Official)

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Atlantic Basin Main Development Region. Above Normal Season. 103. Near Normal. 65. Below Normal Season. Active Decades. Active Decade. IN-active Decades. Historical Perspective: ACE Index. Moderate and Strong El Niño during July-September (CPC Official). - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Page 1: Historical Perspective: ACE Index

Historical Perspective: ACE Index

Active DecadesActive Decades Active DecadeActive Decade

Above Above NormalNormalSeason Season

NearNearNormal Normal

Below Below NormalNormalSeasonSeason

IN-active DecadesIN-active Decades

0

50

100

150

200

25019

50

1953

1956

1959

1962

1965

1968

1971

1974

1977

1980

1983

1986

1989

1992

1995

1998

2001

AC

E (

x10,

000

kt2 )

Atlantic Basin Main Development RegionAtlantic Basin Main Development Region

6565

103103

Moderate and Strong El Niño during July-September (CPC Official)Moderate and Strong El Niño during July-September (CPC Official)

Page 2: Historical Perspective: ACE Index

Atlantic Tracks for 1997Tropical Cyclone Tracks: In-Active 1997Tropical Cyclone Tracks: In-Active 1997

Main DevelopmentRegion (MDR)

Page 3: Historical Perspective: ACE Index

Atlantic Tracks for 1998Tropical Cyclone Tracks: Active 1998Tropical Cyclone Tracks: Active 1998

Main DevelopmentRegion (MDR)

Page 4: Historical Perspective: ACE Index

Correlation of Seasonal Snowfall with NAO 1950-1999

60

55

50

45

40

35

30

15

25

10

5

20

0

-8 -7 -5-6 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8SMOOTHED DE-TRENDED NAO

****************

* **** ********

********

*********

***

N=50A=-3.5B=34.66R=-0.6446

Page 5: Historical Perspective: ACE Index

3 Major Northeast Snowstorms vs. Daily Values of NAO Index

Page 6: Historical Perspective: ACE Index

12Z, December 5, 2002

Most Recent Northeast Snowstorm

Page 7: Historical Perspective: ACE Index

AAO: Antarctic Oscillation

PNA: Pacific North American Oscillation

AO: Arctic Oscillation

NAO: North Atlantic Oscillation

Forecast Skill for Selected Global Circulation Components

Page 8: Historical Perspective: ACE Index

The View Ahead

Decision Systems will have weather – climate input

Predictive model will include all earth system components

Models will have to provide level of uncertainty – all forecasts will be ensemble-based

Page 9: Historical Perspective: ACE Index

Methodology Framework

Sector Assessments and Multi-sector Overview• Develop understanding needed for next steps• Set research priorities (natural, social, policy)

Development and Evolution of In-depth Programs• Estimate value of various forecasts• Identify opportunities: prototypes/full systems

Implementation of In-depth Programs• Realize opportunities, e.g., fog forecasting,

2-day temperature forecasts, electricity transmission system needs, QPF, etc.

• Demonstrate and document prototype solutions

From Tim Killeen NCAR Director

Page 10: Historical Perspective: ACE Index

Dutton, J.A., 2002: Opportunities andpriorities in a new era for weather and climate services. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 83, 1303-1311.

Page 11: Historical Perspective: ACE Index

Earth System Modeling Framework Rollout

GFDL FMS B-grid atmosphere

GFDL MOM4 ocean

GFDL POM or MOM4

NCAR CAM

NCEP/NCAR WRF

NCEP atmosphere

NCEP analysis

NCEP model

DAO fvCAMDAO analysis

NSIPP atmosphere

NSIPP ocean

LANL CICE

Earth System

Modeling FrameworkDevelopment

MITgcm ocean

Adoption

All JMC validation codes compliant - April 04

UCLA AGCM

LANL HYPOP

CLM

GSFC Global LIS

Early adopters of the ESMF

- Broad use - Enhancement- Maintenance

One of: GISS, COLA, IRI, JPL, LLNL, Colorado State, U.Illinois, Scripps, U.Miami, NOAA FSL, Florida State, Rutgers, ORNL, Air Force Weather Agency, U.Washington

11/04

8/04

1/05

14 major Earth system codes

Each is coupled to a code never coupled to before:

- 3 by July 03 - all 14 by July 04

Unprecedented software sharing ease among the

nation’s major Earth system models

NASA

NASA

NASA NASANSF

NSF

NSF

NSF

NOAANSF

NOAA

NOAA

NOAA

DOE

MIT

NASA

DOE

?

UCLAEarly

ESTOEarth Science Technology Office

Page 12: Historical Perspective: ACE Index
Page 13: Historical Perspective: ACE Index
Page 14: Historical Perspective: ACE Index

The View Ahead

Global “unified” climate – weather – water “Earth system model framework” (ESMF) ESMF – WRF infrastructure Examples: global – medium range; regional – short

range

New Models

Page 15: Historical Perspective: ACE Index

Global

ESMF

DA

2

3

N

Init

1

2

3

N

DynamicCore 1

Dynamic Core 2

DynamicCore N

SREF

WxForecast

NOAH Conv B.L. Radiative

1

Explicit Cores (e.g., Hurricane, Dispersion, Aviation)

WRF Infrastructure

Weather Research Forecast Model (WRF)

Page 16: Historical Perspective: ACE Index

Ensemble Forecast Systems

15 Members; 5 Eta (BMJ), 5 Eta (KF), 5 RSM

48 km resolution

Run twice daily from 09Z and 21Z to 63 hours

Products available ~same time as 12Z and 00Z Eta

11 Members T126(~105 km) to 84 hrs T62(~210 km) to 384 hrs Run twice daily from 00Z and

12Z

Regional Ensemble Global Ensemble

Page 17: Historical Perspective: ACE Index

Ensemble Performance January 31, 2002

9AM RadarJanuary 31

Dominant precipitation type 27 hour forecast

valid 12Z January 31

Page 18: Historical Perspective: ACE Index

Ensemble Performance January 31, 2002

Snow Freezing Rain

9AM RadarJan. 31, 2002

27 hour forecasts valid 12Z January 31

Page 19: Historical Perspective: ACE Index

Role of the Forecaster

“Forecasting is exciting. The competitive instinct…swells and drives the forecaster into action…The challenge and the elation are largely lost in general-purpose forecasting…But the scientific challenge and the elation that stem from an exalted sense and purpose and usefulness are enormously enriched when you are called on to forecast for a specific and important operation…You have then become a member of a team…”

Yet today’s forecast systems – more and more automated. Less and less dependent on forecaster’s skill

Decision systems being planned with little or no human intervention – Mistake!

Sverre Petterssen, Weathering the Storm: Sverre Petterssen, the D-Day Forecast and the Rise of Modern Meteorology. Boston, AMS, 2001, pp 132-133.

Page 20: Historical Perspective: ACE Index

Role of the Forecaster

Information management – intervention with “AI” type systems “Sustaining situational awareness”

“Service Agent” for decision makers Calm, sure voice preceding and during the extreme

event or “specific and important operation”

Page 21: Historical Perspective: ACE Index

Summary

We continue to grow and link our forecast capabilities: Climate – Weather – Water

Models are becoming increasingly sophisticated in accounting for the total earth system

The forecasts are a cornerstone for the decision makers from military to business to leisure

“Forecasters” Service Agents will be increasingly relied upon for critical operations – extreme events

Challenge of “change” compounded by “rate of change”

Page 22: Historical Perspective: ACE Index

End of Slides

Page 23: Historical Perspective: ACE Index

The NPOESS Preparatory Project (NPP) is a bridge between the NASA EOS program and NPOESS. It is a joint NASA/IPO instrument risk reduction project for the following sensors under development: VIIRS, CrIS, ATMS

The National Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite System (NPOESS) merges Department of Defense (DoD) and Department of Commerce (DOC) meteorological satellite systems into a single national asset.

NPP NPOESS

Page 24: Historical Perspective: ACE Index

Potential Skill (Red) -Assume perfect SST input to dynamical and statistical model forecasts.

Climate Forecast Skill

2nd coldest Nov-Decin observed record.

Forecast cold, obs warm

Cold summer bucks trend

La NinaEl Nino

Tem

pera

tur

eA

nom

aly

corr

elat

ion

SK

ILL

Obs=trend, W

W. cold, largemo-mo variability

Actual Skill (Green) -Need: Model Development Ocean-Atmosphere-Land surface

Better Observations

Page 25: Historical Perspective: ACE Index

Information Doubling

• It took approximately 50,000 years for humanity to acquire that first unit

• It took 1500 years to double that first knowledge base

• By the early 70’s mankind was doubling knowledge every 6 years

• Human knowledge is expected to be doubling every year by 2012

If assumed that mankind had one unit of knowledge in the year 1AD

Page 26: Historical Perspective: ACE Index

Spread of Products to ¼ of Population

Product Year Invented Years to Spread

Electricity 1873 46

Telephone 1876 35

Automobile 1886 55

Airplane 1903 64

Radio 1906 22

Television 1926 26

VCR 1952 34

Microwave Oven 1953 30

PC 1975 16

Cellular Phone 1983 13

Internet 1991 7