hispanic america 2002 new orleans april 26, 2002
TRANSCRIPT
Hispanic America Hispanic America 20022002
New Orleans April 26, 2002
I. The Key Demographics of the Hispanic Electorate
3
Ethnicity
3%
5%
6%
7%
8%
11%
60%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%
Spaniards
Dominicans
South Americans
Cubans
Central Americans
Puerto Ricans
Mexicans
Hispanic Trends Poll - 2000
4
Country of Birth1988
78%
22%
USA
Latin America /Puerto Rico
Univision Poll - 1988
5
Country of Birth2001
51%49%
USA
Latin America /Puerto Rico
AFL-CIO Poll - 2001
6
Hispanic Immigrant VotersCitizenship Year
45%
55%
1995-2001
Before 1995
AFL-CIO Poll - 2001
7
National TV News Preference1988
18%
80%
2%
Univision /Telemundo
CBS / ABC / NBC /CNN
No preference
Univision Poll - 1988
8
National TV News Preference2000
45%
49%
6%
Univision /Telemundo
CBS / ABC / NBC /CNN
No preference
Hispanic Trends Poll - 2000
9
Age
11%
31%
36%
22%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40%
65 +
45-64
30-44
18-29
AFL-CIO Poll - 2001
10
Education
22%
26%
52%
HS diploma orless
College grad ormore
Technical school /Some college
AFL-CIO Poll - 2001
II. The Mindset of the Hispanic Electorate
12
A. The American Dream
13
“The United States is the greatest nation on earth.”
8%
13%
76%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Do not agree
Somewhatagree
Totally/ mostlyagree
AFL-CIO Poll - 2001
14
“No matter how poor you start out in this country, you can make it if you work hard.”
6%
82%
11%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Do not agree
Somewhatagree
Totally/ mostlyagree
AFL-CIO Poll - 2001
15
“Owning my own business is an important goal for me.”
22%
14%
63%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80%
Do not agree
Somewhatagree
Totally/ mostlyagree
AFL-CIO Poll - 2001
16
“Owning my own business is an important goal for me.”
49%
77%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
College graduate
Less than highschool graduate
AFL-CIO Poll - 2001Totally/ mostly agree answers
17
B. The Discrimination Factor
18
“Latinos face serious discrimination in the U.S. that prevents them from getting ahead.”
23%
21%
53%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%
Do not agree
Somewhatagree
Totally/ mostlyagree
AFL-CIO Poll - 2001
19
“Most employers do not treat their Latino employees fairly.”
24%
43%
29%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
Do not agree
Somewhat agree
Totally/ mostlyagree
AFL-CIO Poll - 2001
20
C. The “Melting Pot” model may not apply to new Latino immigrants
21
“Being part of the Latino or Hispanic community is extremely important to me.”
9%
86%
4%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Do not agree
Somewhatagree
Totally/ mostlyagree
AFL-CIO Poll - 2001
22
“Do you prefer to speak English or Spanish at home?”
40%
29%
31% Spanish
English
Both
AFL-CIO Poll - 2001
III. The Issues
24
Latinos are divided on the primacy of economics or family values
49%
47%
4%
Creating jobs moreimportant
Moral and familyvalues moreimportant
Not sure
AFL-CIO Poll - 2001
25
Language is a point of differentiation
54%42%
5%
44%
51%
5%
Creating jobs more importantMoral and family values more importantNot sure
English Spanish
AFL-CIO Poll - 2001
26
“Government should do more to help families, even if it means higher taxes.”
30%
20%
46%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
Do not agree
Somewhatagree
Totally/ mostlyagree
AFL-CIO Poll - 2001
27
“Government should do more to help families, even if it means higher taxes.”
54%
39%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%
55 and older
18-34
Totally/ mostly agree answersAFL-CIO Poll - 2001
28
“Prayer is an important part of my daily life.”
8%
82%
9%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Do not agree
Somewhatagree
Totally/ mostlyagree
AFL-CIO Poll - 2001
Candidate A says that we need to get back to moral values by opposing marriages between people of the same sex and
opposing most types of abortion.Candidate B says that family values include having enough food,
good housing and a decent education and that government should help families with economic problems to provide what is
necessary for their children.
26%
69%
5%
Candidate A
Candidate B
Not sure
AFL-CIO Poll - 2001
30
Latinos favor increased spending on public education over vouchers.
69%
27%
4%
Publiceducation
Vouchers
Not sure
AFL-CIO Poll - 2001
31
Latinos favor increasing the minimum wage over a “hands-off” approach to the economy
68%
29%
3%
Increasingminimumwage
"Hands-off onthe ecenomy
Not sure
AFL-CIO Poll - 2001
Candidate A says that the best way to insure a strong economy is to encourage free trade with older countries and that agreements like
NAFTA, the Free Trade Agreement with Mexico, help the United States sell its products to other countries and create jobs here at
home.Candidate B says that free trade means fewer jobs for American
workers and lower pay for the jobs that are left. He says that agreements like NAFTA encourage American companies to move jobs to countries where workers are paid much less than in the
United States.
59%
33%
8%
Candidate A
Candidate B
Not sure
AFL-CIO Poll - 2001
33
Latinos support a national health insurance program over current system
76%
21%
3%
National healthinsurance
Current system
Not sure
AFL-CIO Poll - 2001
34
Latino voters support Amnesty for illegal immigrants
70%
20%
10%
Amnesty
Deportation
Not sure
Hispanic Trends Poll - 2000
35
Latino voters are split on the Abortion issue
44%
41%
15%
Illegal
Legal
Not sure
Hispanic Trends Poll - 2000
36
Latino voters are split on the Death Penalty
42%
40%
18%
Favor
Against
Not sure
Hispanic Trends Poll - 2000
IV. The Lessons of the 2000 Presidential Campaign
38
1996 Presidential ResultsHispanic Voters
7%
21%
72%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80%
Perot
Dole
Clinton
VNS Exit Poll - 1996
39
Hispanic Voters 1996 vs. 2000
7
4
0 2 4 6 8
2000
1996
Millions of Voters VNS Exit Polls – 1996/2000
40
2000 Presidential ResultsHispanic Voters
3%
62%
35%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80%
Nader
Bush
Gore
VNS Exit Poll - 2000
41
Hispanic Voters1996 vs. 2000
3%
62%
7%
21%
72%
35%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80%
Othercandidate
Republicancandidate
Democraticcandidate
1996
2000
VNS Exit Polls – 1996/2000
42
Campaign 2000 The GOP Convention and the
Hispanic mindset 234 presidential campaign stories
on the Univision and Telemundo newscasts between 7/24 and 11/5
LAIFA dominates last two weeks of presidential campaign
V. Recent Elections
44
2001 New Jersey Governor’s Race
12%
6%
6%
82%
21%
73%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
BobMenedez
JimMcGreevey
Positive
Negative
Do not recognize
Spanish-dominant voters B&A Poll – 2001
45
2001 New Jersey Governor’s Race
28%
53%
72%
47%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80%
2001
1997 Democraticcandidate
Republicancandidate
NJ Exit Polls
46
2001 New York City Mayor’s Race
50%
15%
12%
50%
85%
82%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
2001 Mayor
2000Senate
2000Presidential Democratic
candidate
Republicancandidate
NYC Exit Polls
47
2002 Texas Democratic Primary for Governor
26%
81%
22%
19%
52%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
March
January DanMorales
TonySanchez
Undecided
B&A Polls – 2001
VI. Jorge Bush and the Exorcist
49
The Personal Image of George W. Bush among Hispanic voters
41%
54%
5%
67%
29%
4%
82%
17%
1%0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
Positive
Negative
No opinion
November 2000
August 2001 January 2002
50
Democrats vs. Republicans
All Latinos Voters On protecting workers’ rights +42 On respecting Latinos +39 On immigration issues +29 On improving education +20
AFL-CIO Poll – 2001
Democratic Advantage
51
Democrats in Congress vs. George W. Bush
All Latinos Voters On protecting workers’ rights
+22 On respecting Latinos + 8 On immigration issues + 6 On improving education + 2
AFL-CIO Poll – 2001
Democratic Advantage
52
Democrats in Congress vs. George W. Bush
Spanish-dominant Latino Voters On protecting workers’ rights +6 On respecting Latinos -11 On immigration issues - 5 On improving education -10
AFL-CIO Poll – 2001
Democratic Advantage
53
The Exorcist 69% of all Hispanic voters know that
President George W. Bush and President Vicente Fox of Mexico are working closely together on important issues.
70% of all Hispanic voters feel that it is very important that Bush and Fox are good friends and are working together on many issues.
AFL-CIO Poll – 2001
The Hispanic Electorate is one The Hispanic Electorate is one of the key battlegrounds in of the key battlegrounds in
American politics today.American politics today.Parties and candidates that Parties and candidates that best understand its culture best understand its culture and political mindset will and political mindset will benefit substantially in benefit substantially in
upcoming elections.upcoming elections.