hindsight bias

• Hindsight Bias

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Hindsight bias

1 A basic example of the hindsight bias is when, after viewing the outcome of a potentially unforeseeable event, a person believes he or she knew it all

along


Hindsight bias - History

1 The 'hindsight bias', although not hitherto named as such, was not a new concept when it emerged in

psychology|psychological research in the 1970s



1 This study is frequently referred to in definitions of the hindsight bias, and the title of the paper, I knew it would happen, may have contributed to the hindsight bias being interchangeable

with the phrase knew it all along hypothesis.



1 Hindsight Bias, risk perception and investment performance


Hindsight bias - Function

1 (2007) Hindsight Bias: On Being Wise After the

Event



1 Subjects used the phrase it should have been obvious multiple times in the experiment, similar to the other name for hindsight bias the I knew it

all along phenomenon.



1 In a perfectly objective case, the verdict would be based on the

physician’s standard of care instead of the outcome of the treatment, however studies show that cases

that end in severe negative outcomes such as death result in

higher levels of hindsight bias



1 There has been very little research on the phenomenon of visual hindsight bias



1 The role of surprise can help explain the

malleability of hindsight bias.



1 Another topic that affects the function of hindsight bias is the auditory function of

humans.



1 Auditory hindsight bias



1 What can children tell us about hindsight bias: A fundamental

constraint on perspective-taking? Social Cognition



1 Older children and adults displayed a different type of hindsight bias when

presented with an identical task


Hindsight bias - Cognitive models

1 SARA and RAFT focus on distortions or changes in a memory process while CMT focuses on probability

judgments of hindsight bias.



1 When remembered this image is reactivated, and the ability for

editing and alteration of the memory is possible which takes place in

hindsight bias when new and correct information is presented, leading one to believe that this new information when remembered at a later time is

the persons original memory



1 explains hindsight bias with comparisons of objects using

knowledge based probability then applying interpretations to those

probabilities



1 CMT is a non-formal theory based on work by many researchers to create

a collaborative process model for hindsight bias that involves event

outcomes


Hindsight bias - Memory distortions

1 The person must recall the original information with hindsight bias and misinformation effect while a person

that has a false autobiographical memory is expected to remember the incorrect information as a true

memory.


Hindsight bias - Memory distortions

1 Hindsight bias and misinformation effect recall a specific time and event, this is called an episodic

memory process


Hindsight bias - Motivated forgetting

1 Examples will be discussed below to show the regularity and severity of hindsight bias in

society.


Hindsight bias - Elimination

1 The only observable way to decrease hindsight bias in testing is to increase accountability of the

participant's answer.


Hindsight bias - Schizophrenia

1 Schizophrenia is an example of a disorder that directly affects the hindsight bias. The hindsight bias has a stronger effect

on schizophrenic individuals compared to individuals from the general

public.Woodward, T. S., Moritz, S., Arnold, M. M., Cuttler, C., Whitman, J. C., Lindsay,

S. (2006). Increased hindsight bias in schizophrenia. Neuropsychology. 20: 462-

467.


Hindsight bias - Schizophrenia

1 The hindsight bias effect is a paradigm that demonstrates how

recently acquired knowledge influences the recollection of past

information


Hindsight bias - Post-traumatic stress disorder

1 The PFC is well known for controlling the thought process in hindsight bias that something will happen when it

evidently does not


Hindsight bias - Post-traumatic stress disorder

1 Although there has been limited research, significant data suggests that hindsight bias, in terms of guilt and responsibility from traumatic

events of war, has an effect on war veterans' personal perception of

wrongdoing


Hindsight bias - Health care system

1 Many of these deaths are viewed to be preventable after the fact, clearly

indicating the presence and importance of a hindsight bias in this

field.


Hindsight bias - Judicial system

1 This shows that jurors are not the only ones sensitive to the effects of the hindsight bias in the courtroom.


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hindsight bias

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