highyield sector outlook report january 2013
TRANSCRIPT
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8/22/2019 HighYield Sector Outlook Report January 2013
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INVESTMENT
PROFESSIONALS
B. SCOTT MINERD
Chief Investment Ocer
ANTHONY D. MINELLA, CFA
Co-Head of Corporate Credit
MICHAEL P. DAMASO
Co-Head of Corporate Credit
JEFFREY B. ABRAMS
Senior Managing Director,
Portfolio Manager
KEVIN H. GUNDERSEN, CFA
Managing Director,
Portfolio Manager
KELECHI OGBUNAMIRI
Associate,
Investment Research
JANUARY 2013
High Yield andBank Loan Outlook
As we kick off2013, there is a noticeably cautious tenor surroundingthe leveraged credit market. Although 2012 saw impressive returns in the high
yield bond and leveraged loan markets of 14.7 and 9.4 percent, respectively,few are expecting a repeat of this performance. Since December 2008, thehigh yield bond and leveraged loan markets have recorded annualized averagereturns of 22 and 14 percent, respectively, but record high prices, historicallylow yields, and gradually deteriorating fundamentals have tempered forwardexpectations with forecasts calling for single digit returns.
Muted optimism aside, the leveraged credit market remains the primarydestination of choice for investors seeking yield in the xed income market.Despite leverage stealthily ticking up towards post-recession highs and thereturn of increasingly aggressive deal structures, investors are seeminglywilling to trade covenant protection for higher yields. While the demand
for yield and accommodative monetary policy provide strong, technicalundercurrents, generating above-market returns will require an evengreater emphasis on fundamental credit analysis to unearth undervaluedopportunities. We believe bank loans, particularly upper middle-marketnancings, oer attractive relative value going forward.
REPORT HIGHLIGHTS:
Rebounding from a 1.8 percent return in 2011, bank loans gained 9.4 percent in2012. High yield bonds returned 14.7 percent in 2012, compared to 5.5 percentin 2011.
Nominally low yields throughout the xed income universe drove capitalinto the leveraged credit sector, with issuers responding with record level supply.
2012 high yield bond issuance totaled $346 billion, the most ever, while the loanmarket enjoyed its highest level of issuance since 2007.
Since 1992, the Credit Suisse Leveraged Loan Index, on average, has yielded 130basis points less than the Credit Suisse High Yield Index. With bond yields nishingthe year at 6.25 percent, the lowest level on record, this dierential has narrowed to30 basis points, increasing the relative value of bank loans.
As default rates have stabilized below historical averages, investors havebeen willing to tolerate increased credit risk in exchange for incremental yield.During 2012, covenant-lite loans represented 33 percent of total bank loan issuance,three times the average of the previous four years.
INSTITUTIONAL INVESTOR COMMENTARY IG HY ABS CMBS RMBS
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PAGE 2 HIGH YIELD AND BANK LOAN OUTLOOK | Q1 2013
CREDIT SUISSE HIGH YIELD INDEX RETURNS CREDIT SUISSE LEVERAGED LOAN INDEX RETURNS
SOURCE: CREDIT SUISSE. DATA AS OF DECEMBER 31, 2012.
Q3 2012 Q4 2012 Q3 2012 Q4 2012
SOURCE: CREDIT SUISSE. EXCLUDES SPLIT B HIGH YIELD BONDS AND BANK LOANS.
*DISCOUNT MARGIN TO MATURITY ASSUMES THREE-YEAR AVERAGE LIFE.
Leveraged Credit ScorecardAS OF MONTH END
HIGH YIELD BONDS
Dec-11 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12
Spread Yield Spread Yield Spread Yield Spread Yield
Credit Suisse High Yield Index 728 8.23% 581 6.54% 583 6.49% 554 6.25%Split BBB 402 5.17% 309 4.19% 314 4.16% 302 4.16%
BB 511 6.04% 390 4.72% 398 4.74% 376 4.58%
Split BB 597 6.85% 481 5.47% 470 5.27% 442 5.03%
B 740 8.23% 594 6.60% 591 6.49% 566 6.27%
CCC / Split CCC 1,384 14.94% 1,030 10.96% 1,013 10.68% 958 10.21%
BANK LOANS
Dec-11 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12
DMM* Price DMM* Price DMM* Price DMM* Price
Credit Suisse Leveraged Loan Index 656 92.19 557 96.23 561 96.28 555 96.60
Split BBB 325 99.30 302 100.11 300 100.22 296 100.30BB 444 97.74 393 99.98 391 100.05 385 100.22
Split BB 542 96.91 483 100.02 485 100.12 486 100.26
B 726 92.89 582 98.28 584 98.35 584 98.58
CCC / Split CCC 1,615 71.23 1,415 77.29 1,420 77.65 1,359 79.39
4.3%
1%
0%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
IndexSplitBBB BB B
SplitBB
CCC /Split CCC
3.1%
2.1%
3.1%
2.6%
3.5%
4.2% 4.1% 4.1%
4.5% 4.6%
3.7%
1%
0%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
IndexSplitBBB BB B
SplitBB
CCC /Split CCC
1.5%1.7%
1.5%
3.1%
1.6%
2.2%
2.6%
3.4%
5.7%
1.1%
1.5%
-0.3%
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PAGE 3 HIGH YIELD AND BANK LOAN OUTLOOK | Q1 2013
Macroeconomic OverviewU.S. ECONOMIC EXPANSION REMAINS RESILIENT AMID MACRO HEADWINDS
Although Europe remains in a recession, more importantly, the political process towards scal
unity appears to be underway with the initial steps taken towards the creation of a banking
union. This has, for the time being, eliminated the worst case scenario an unwinding of the
European Union. With a centralized regulator in Europe, it will be much easier for the European
Central Bank to manage the individual nancial crises within each country. As the structural
outlook in Europe improves, albeit at a glacial pace, tail risk is signicantly mitigated.
Amid this slow, but encouraging progress in Europe, the markets have now begun focusing
on the U.S. debt ceiling debate, following Congress New Years reprieve on the Fiscal Cli.
Despite the uncertainty created by political bipartisanship in Washington, the strength of
recent U.S. economic data demonstrates the resilience of the current U.S. economic expansion:
Industrial Production advanced 1.1 percent month-over-month in November, the most since
December 2010; initial jobless claims four-week moving average has fallen to a level last seen
in April 2008; and revised third quarter GDP surpassed expectations. Future GDP growth
should be buttressed by the continued recovery in the housing market. In its most recentreading, the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Index surged to the highest level
since April 2006, as national home prices have risen 4.3 percent year-over-year. Continued
growth in U.S. household formation, which increased by 1.2 million in 2012, compared to an
annual average of 670,000 during the prior four years, should help absorb the current excess
housing inventory by 2015.
On the monetary front, the Federal Reserve is likely to continue with its asset purchase
program throughout 2013 in its eort to combat long-term structural unemployment.
A continuation of quantitative easing (QE), coupled with the acceleration in home price
appreciation, serve as signicant tailwinds for long-term growth prospects. While this is
a longer-term forecast, it is not too early for investors to start positioning their portfoliosfor an age of greater prosperity in the United States. In the xed income domain, abundant
liquidity and the continuation of open-ended QE suggest a benign credit environment with
low default rates, which is constructive for select below-investment grade credit and asset-
backed securities.
A greater portion of
investment activity in the
high yield market is now
based on investors simply
wanting to own the asset
class. As a result, it hasbecome harder to nd
the same level of value
previously experienced
in the below-investment
grade market. While there
is still a fair amount of
room for spreads to tighten
further, investors should
be aware of the shift in the
environment and adjust
investment decisions
accordingly.
Scott Minerd,
Chief Investment Ocer
SOURCE: CREDIT SUISSE. DATA AS OF DECEMBER 31, 2012.
HIGH YIELD BOND SPREADS FOLLOWING END OF RECESSIONThe typical credit cycle,
fol lowing a recession,
has historically lasted
anywhere from 60
to 80 months before
spreads began towiden. With January
2013 representing only
the 43rd month post-
recession, opportunities
exist, but have become
harder to come by at
current valuations.200bps
400bps
600bps
1000bps
800bps
300bps
500bps
700bps
1,100bps
900bps
1,200bps
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120
R2
= 0.605
Number of Months Following End of Recession
CreditSuisseHighYieldBo
ndSpreads
Dec. 2012
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PAGE 4 HIGH YIELD AND BANK LOAN OUTLOOK | Q1 2013
2012 Leveraged Credit RecapBENIGN CREDIT CONDITIONS DRIVE STRONG PERFORMANCE
The Credit Suisse High Yield and Leveraged Loan Index posted gains of 3.1 and 1.5 percent,
respectively, in the fourth quarter, capping o a stellar year in the leveraged credit market.
The impressive performance in 2012 stands in stark contrast to the turbulent market conditionsof 2011, which were marred by geopolitical concerns such as the European sovereign debt
crisis and U.S. debt ceiling debate. Rebounding from a 1.8 percent return in 2011, bank loans
gained 9.4 percent, the sixth best annual performance on record. Meanwhile, high yield bonds
returned 14.7 percent, the third largest annual gain over the past fteen years, compared to
5.5 percent in 2011. In 2012, the high yield bond market experienced only one negative month,
a 1.3 percent loss in May. This compares favorably to the highly volatile markets during 2011,
where four of the last seven months of the year saw negative performance, including a 3.7
percent loss in August.
The unprecedented global monetary accommodation, which resulted in low default rates andample liquidity, coupled with the search for yield, created a conducive environment for high
yield bonds and bank loans. With yields on Treasuries remaining largely range-bound and the
Barclays U.S. Corporate Investment Grade Index yielding 2.71 percent, just o the all-time
lows, the leveraged credit sector continued to benet from the dearth of viable xed income
alternatives. The following are key themes and trends that highlighted the market in 2012:
Aggregate leveraged credit issuance totaled $640 billion in 2012, the most ever. Fifty-two
percent of new issue proceeds were used to renance existing debt. Replacing expensive
capital structures with lower cost funding lifted the median interest coverage ratio to 3.8x,
compared to 3.1x at the end of 2009.
The strong demand for yield created a positive technical bid for the leveraged credit market.
During 2012, bond spreads tightened by 175 basis points, as yields fell to a historical low
of 6.25 percent.
Bank loans benetted from the resurgence of the collateralized loan obligation (CLO) market.
CLO issuance totaled $55 billion in 2012, four times the previous years total. In the latter
half of the year, the relative value of bank loans attracted strong retail ows. Loan funds
experienced 18 consecutive weeks of positive ows to end the year.
Robust demand has led to a surge in opportunistic issuance. For the year, covenant-lite loansrepresented 33 percent of total bank loan issuance, three times the average of the previous
four years. In the bond market, aggressive payment-in-kind (PIK) toggle notes reappeared.
Nineteen PIK toggle deals priced, raising total proceeds of $6.7 billion, exceeding the
aggregate proceeds of the previous three years.
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PAGE 5 HIGH YIELD AND BANK LOAN OUTLOOK | Q1 2013
2,000bps
1,600bps
1,200bps
800bps
400bps
0bps
25%
20%
15%
5%
10%
0%
1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
AVERAGE: 591bps
AVERAGE: 11.1%
In 2012, a benign credit environment and the need for yield propelled the leveraged credit
sector higher. While both of these factors are still in play, rich valuations and increasingly
aggressive trends in the new issue market may impede further appreciation in high yield bonds
and bank loans.
Buyer BewareCALLABILITY LIMITS UPSIDE IN SECONDARY MARKET
While equity investors enjoy the theoretical luxury of unlimited upside, valuations in the
leveraged credit sector have traditionally been constrained by yields. Historically, there has
been an assumed yield oor or minimum acceptable yield investors required to own highly
leveraged credit securities of around 7 percent. Prior to 2012, the Credit Suisse High Yield
Index had closed below 7 percent on a monthly basis just six times, and in each instance, yields
quickly retraced o this level in subsequent months. Firmly dispelling the notion of a yield oor,
Index yields have now closed below 7 percent for ve consecutive months, ending 2012 at 6.25
percent. With all-in yields no longer a reliable gauge for valuation, evaluating prices may be
more constructive in determining the potential for further appreciation.
With the Credit Suisse High Yield Index ending the year at $104.61, just shy of the all-time high,
and the Credit Suisse Leveraged Loan Index nishing at a ve-year high of $96.60, callability
may largely dictate the potential for further price appreciation. High yield bonds typically
include call protection for a period equal to half of the bonds stated maturity. After that period,
the issuer has the right to redeem the bonds at a pre-determined premium to par. Bank loans,
on the other hand, have historically not oered any call protection.
CREDIT SUISSE HIGH YIELD INDEX HISTORICAL SNAPSHOT
SOURCE: CREDIT SUISSE. DATA AS OF DECEMBER 31, 2012.
Yield (LHS) Spread (RHS)
YIELD SPREAD
HIGH 20.5% 1,816
LOW 6.2% 271LAST 6.2% 554
The lack of yield in xed
income alternatives
continues to steer capital
into the high yield sec tor.
Af ter clos ing 2012 with
a yield of 6.25 percent,could the Credit Suisse
High Yield Index break
6 percent in 2013?
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PAGE 6 HIGH YIELD AND BANK LOAN OUTLOOK | Q1 2013
A relatively recent advent in new issue bank loans has been the inclusion of 101 soft call
protection in renancings, which forces issuers to pay a one percent premium to reprice loans
in the rst year. After that initial year of soft protection, loans become freely callable at par.
At current levels, broadly investing in the secondary market may result in simply clipping
interest coupons and thus increases the relative value of new issue bank loans, which tend to
price at discounts to par, and new issue high yield bonds that may oer greater call protection.
As investors ock to the new issue market, this has shifted the balance of power from investors
to issuers.
LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR PRICE APPRECIATION IN SECONDARY MARKET BONDS
SOURCE: BOFA MERRILL LYNCH. DATA AS OF DECEMBER 31, 2012.
Over the past year, the
percent of high yield
bonds trading at par
or better has increased
from 62 percent to 86
percent. The upside
in these secondary
market credits is limited
given their callability.
New issue bonds oerconsiderably more
potential for price
appreciation.
2011 2012
15%
10%
5%
0%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
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PAGE 7 HIGH YIELD AND BANK LOAN OUTLOOK | Q1 2013
New Issue Market TrendsDEMAND FOR YIELD OBSCURING RISING SECTOR RISKS
The recovery of the new issue market over the past four years has been truly remarkable.
At the end of 2008, the prospects for the leveraged credit sector appeared extremely bleak.
The 04-07 vintage leveraged buyout (LBO) nancings, issued at the peak of the creditcycle, were set to mature over the next several years. However, waning risk appetite among
investors and investment banks created a massive supply / demand imbalance. After high
yield borrowers had amassed $880 billion of debt maturing between 2012 and 2014, the capital
markets froze. Leveraged credit issuance in 2008 totaled $141 billion, a precipitous decline
from the $426 billion annual average of the preceding three-year period. With insucient
demand to renance near-term debt, leveraged credit default rates spiked to 14 percent by
the end of 2009.
An entirely dierent dynamic exists today in the new issue market, where demand is outpacing
supply. Of the $1.5 trillion of leveraged credit debt issued over the past three years, more thanhalf has been used for renancings, easing concerns over the debt maturity wall that existed
at the end of 2008. This high level of renancing activity has limited the net new supply of
leveraged credit securities at a time of growing demand for high yield bonds and bank loans.
Despite bond yields falling to historical lows, sustained demand drove 2012 high yield bond
issuance to $346 billion, the most ever, while the loan market enjoyed its highest level of
issuance since 2007. Looking ahead, with only $298 billion of debt set to mature over the next
three years, renancing supply alone is likely inadequate to satisfy the demand of yield-starved
investors. To ll this void, issuers have turned to increased opportunistic issuance.
COMPARISON OF DEBT MATURITY WALL AT END OF 2008 VS. 2012
SOURCE: CREDIT SUISSE. DATA AS OF DECEMBER 31, 2012.
The wave of renancings
has greatly diminished
the amount of near-term
debt maturities. Based
on the 2012 average of
$30 billion in monthly
renancings, the $298
billion in leverage debt
maturing over the next
three years could be
renanced as quickly as
October 2013.
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
$100Bn
$150Bn
$0Bn
$50Bn
$200Bn
$250Bn
$300Bn
$350Bn
$60Bn
$80Bn
$0Bn
$40Bn
$20Bn
$100Bn
$120Bn
$140Bn
$160Bn
$180Bn
224
9
5167
3819
115
1
204
90
23
104
36
119
82 88 85
65
141
156
290
165
2008 2012
LEVERAGED LOAN HIGH YIELD BOND
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Shareholder dividends nanced through the leveraged loan market represented14 percent of total issuance compared to an average of 8 percent over the last ve years.
Dividend recapitalizations represent another method private equity rms can use to monetize
their investments as sponsor-IPO volumes remain tepid. Additionally, many corporations
sought to preempt any potentially adverse tax changes that may have occurred as a result
of the Fiscal Cli. While sponsors were taking capital out of existing deals, they were also
contributing less in new deals. In 2009, equity capital constituted 46 percent of total LBO
nancing, but that number has since fallen to 38 percent by the end of 2012.
Incremental yield in the loan market has been generated at the expense of investor protections.
Covenant-lite issuance, as a percent of total issuance, totaled 33 percent, the most ever.
Underscoring the fact that this is likely not a eeting trend, the structure of CLOs, the largest
buyers of bank loans, has begun to evolve accordingly. Recent CLOs have increased the
maximum allowance for covenant-lite loans from 30 percent to as much as 70 percent.
TEN LARGEST CLOs OF 2012
SOURCE: S&P LCD. DATA AS OF DECEMBER 31, 2012. INCLUDES BROADLY SYNDICATED CLOs.
The CLO market
thrived in 2012 with $55
billion raised, including
Guggenheims $1.05
billion CLO, the largest
market-cash ow fund on
record. Signaling that the
market expects covenant-
lite issuance to remain
robust, recent CLOs have
allowed for up to 70
percent allocations
to covenant-lite loans.
CLO Manager Size ($mm) Date Cov-Lite Loans
Mercer Field CLO Guggenheim Partners Investment Management 1,054 Dec-12 60%
Madison Park Funding X Credit Suisse Asset Management 802 Nov-12 40%
OHA Credit Partners VII OakHill Advisors 770 Oct-12 50%
Venture XII CLO MJX Asset Management 750 Dec-12 40%
CIFC Funding 2012-II CIFC Asset Management/Greensledge 748 Oct-12 40%
ALM VII Apollo Credit Management 722 Oct-12 70%
Ares X XIV Ares CLO Management X XIV 719 Aug-12 30%
OHA Credit Partners VI Oak Hill Advisors 674 Apr-12 50%
Octagon Investment Partners XIV Octagon Credit Investors 626 Nov-12 50%
Northwoods Capital IX Angelo, Gordon & Co. 626 Nov-12 50%
LBO FINANCING TRENDS
SOURCE: S&P LCD. DATA AS OF DECEMBER 31, 2012. EQUITY CONTRIBUTION EXCLUDES ROLLOVER EQUITY.
PURCHASE PRICE MULTIPLE INCLUDES FEES AND EXPENSES.
Since bottoming in 2009,
LBO purchase price
multiples have begun
trending up. With access
to cheap nancing,
sponsors equitycontribution has dropped
to 38 percent, not far o
from pre-crisi s levels.
Equity Contribution (LHS) Purchase Price Multiple (RHS)
5x
6x
7x
9x
8x
10x
25%
30%
35%
45%
40%
50%
7.6
7.1
6.0
6.6
7.17.3
8.4 8.4
9.7
9.1
7.7
8.58.7
7.8
1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 20121998 2001 2004 2007 20101999 2002 2005 2008 2011
8.8
6.7
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PAGE 9 HIGH YIELD AND BANK LOAN OUTLOOK | Q1 2013
Amid a loan pipeline swelling with covenant-lite issuance, and the increased frequency of PIK
toggle structures, there is a natural tendency to draw parallels to the previous credit cycle.
While debt burdens have increased slightly, recent renancings have extended near-term
debt maturities. Additionally, with coverage ratios at the highest levels in three years and
an improving U.S. economy, near-term event risk has been greatly diminished.
As seen in the chart above, credit fundamentals, on an absolute basis, have slightly
deteriorated, despite the recovery in the U.S. economy. This has largely been driven by the
scarcity of yield in the credit markets, which has forced lenders to take on incremental nancial
risk in the form of additional leverage, and fewer structural protections (covenants) over thepast two years. However, current conditions remain far from the frothy market conditions
observed at the peak of the credit cycle in 2007, as illustrated in the table below. 2013 will
continue to be a credit pickers market where investors will have to discern which market
segments oer attractive relative value. In the following sections, we highlight the value
proposition in bank loans, specically upper middle-market nancings.
While, admittedly,
risks are rising in the
leveraged credit sector,
investors should behesitant to draw parallels
to 2007, which was
punctuated by M&A
and LBO nancings,
constituting 62 percent
of all issuance and PIK
toggle deals, representing
14 percent of high yield
bond issuance.
A TALE OF TWO MARKETS
SOURCE: S&P LCD. DATA AS OF DECEMBER 31, 2012.
2007 2012
Renancings as % of Total Issuance 21% 52%M&A and LBO Financings as % of Total Issuance 62% 27%
Covenant-Lite as % of Total Loan Issuance 30% 33%
PIK Toggle as % of Total Bond Issuance 14% 2%
Equity Contribution as % of Total LBO Financing 31% 38%
LBO Purchase Price Multiples 9.7x 8.5x
2x
3x
4x
5x
2x
3x
4x
5x
1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011
1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011
Leverage
Coverage
As high yie ld issuers
have spent the past three
years locking in cheap,
long-term nancing,
coverage ratios have
improved, rising almost
a full turn since 2009.
With near-term debt
obligations extended,
issuers have now begun
releveraging. Currently,
high yield sector leverage
stands at 4.1x EBITDA,
the highest level in over
two years.
RECENT CREDIT TRENDS IN THE HIGH YIELD SECTOR
SOURCE: MORGAN STANLEY. DATA AS OF SEPTEMBER 30, 2012.
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PAGE 10 HIGH YIELD AND BANK LOAN OUTLOOK | Q1 2013
Upper Middle-Market OpportunitiesIDENTIFYING MARKET SEGMENTS WHERE INVESTORS CAN CREATE VALUE
The robust demand for new issuance has clearly tilted the balance of power in favor of issuers.
Issuers have capitalized on this leverage to cut spreads, raise prices, and, in the case of bank
loans, drop covenants. Even after employing reverse ex to the initial terms, many of thesedeals are still heavily oversubscribed, relegating investors to price takers ghting for allocations.
As a result of these current dynamics, in the context of nancings from well-known, repeat
issuers, investors have limited opportunities to create value by working with underwriters and
sponsors in order to help structure transactions and provide feedback.
One area where investors still have the opportunity to drive outcomes is in upper middle-
market nancings, which generally consist of deals from smaller companies, rst-time issuers
or growing businesses in newer, yet fundamentally sound industries. We dene upper middle-
market as high yield bond and bank loan tranches between $300 and $750 million. While these
segments are typically assumed to be less liquid, they actually represent fairly sizable portionsof the leveraged credit market, over 40 percent of the high yield market and nearly a third of
bank loans.
An increased level of dialogue and communication can enable underwriters to price deals more
appropriately, while sponsors get long-term partners in their deals. Generally more prevalent
on the bank loan side, our feedback on structuring transactions has resulted in greater
protections for investors such as limited restricted payments, tighter nancial covenants,
and greater call protection.
Upper middle-market
tranches oer yield
pickup of approximately
30 basis points in high
yield bonds and 60 basis
points in bank loans
over similarly-rated,
larger debt tranches.
In select transactions,
investors have the ability
to drive deal terms, an
opportunity generallynot available in larger
debt tranche oerings.
Size ($mm) Market Weight Yield to Worst
=1000 31.5% 5.5%
BARCLAYS CORPORATE HIGH YIELD INDEX
CREDIT SUISSE LEVERAGED LOAN INDEX
Size ($mm) Market Weight Discount Margin to Maturity=1000 42.0% 536
SOURCE: BARCLAYS, CREDIT SUISSE. DATA AS OF DECEMBER 31, 2012.
BARCLAYS CORPORATE HIGH YIELD INDEX EXCLUDES BONDS TRADING AT A PRICE BELOW 80.
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PAGE 11 HIGH YIELD AND BANK LOAN OUTLOOK | Q1 2013
Relative Value of Bank LoansSHRINKING BOND YIELDS CREATING ATTRACTIVE CAPITAL STRUCTURE ARBITRAGE
While the excess liquidity injected into the nancial system by the Fed has enabled
high yield issuers to renance over $300 billion of debt in 2012 and has also kept default rates
stable, seemingly benign credit conditions may be casting a false sense of security among
leveraged credit investors. Historically, default rates have proven to be lagging indicators,
but more importantly, focusing solely on credit metrics fails to provide a complete picture
of the risks associated with investing in the sector.
In the years ahead, interest rate risk may supplant credit risk as the primary determinant
of long-term performance for high yield bonds. As monetary policy continues to articially
depress interest rates, investors may not be accurately discounting and positioning portfolios
for the inevitable rise in rates. Underscoring the increased importance of interest rate risk,
a 75 basis point rise in rates can lead to negative total returns over a one-year holding period in
new issue BB high yield bonds. Bank loans, which have oating-rate coupons, allow investors
to remain exposed to the leveraged credit sector while protecting against rising rates.
Readers of our past publications will recall that we rst began highlighting the compelling
investment thesis in bank loans(Relative Value of Bank Loan vs. High Yield Bonds) following
the rst quarter of 2012. Historically, bank loans have been overshadowed by high yield bonds
in terms of investor interest. The recent increased coverage of bank loans, coupled with
strong inows into the sector, suggests that investors are nally beginning to appreciate its
tremendous value proposition. When compared to unsecured high yield bonds, bank loans
seniority in the capital structure, secured status, and nancial maintenance covenants have
historically resulted in lower default rates, decreased volatility, and higher recovery rates.
QUANTIFYING RATE RISK IN NEW ISSUE BB HIGH YIELD BONDS
SOURCE: S&P LCD, BLOOMBERG. DATA AS OF DECEMBER 31, 2012. ANALYSIS BASED ON 5 PERCENT COUPON,
EFFECTIVE DURATION OF 6.7 AND ASSUMES ONE-YEAR HOLDING PERIOD.
High yield investors may
be ignoring interest rate
risk at their own peril.
Interest rate increases of
75 basis points or more
lead to negative total
returns over a one-year
holding period for BB
bonds.
Nomin
alTotalReturn
Change in Interest Rates (Basis Points)
-4%
-8%
-12%
-16%
0%
4%
8%
12%
16%
-150 -100 -50 0 50 150 200 250 300
A 75 basis point rise in ratesfully offsets interest income
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PAGE 12 HIGH YIELD AND BANK LOAN OUTLOOK | Q1 2013
This complement of safeguards has historically come at the expense of lower yield.
Since 1992, the Credit Suisse Leveraged Loan Index, on average, has yielded 130 basis
points less than the Credit Suisse High Yield Index, but the current dierential stands at 30
basis points. Given the increased protection of bank loans, we view B bank loans, with average
spreads of 580 basis points, as having similar credit risk proles to BB high yield bonds, with
average spreads of 380 basis points. The ability to move up the capital structure while pickingup considerable spread has recently led to retail capital owing out of bond funds and into
loan funds, which could support further price appreciation.
Investment ImplicationsTHE BEST OFFENSE IS A GOOD DEFENSE
Investors should realize that it is no longer early in the credit market. We are coming into the
seventh inning stretch and it is getting tougher to nd attractive opportunities. These words
are even more applicable now than when we rst stated them in our publication following the
rst quarter of 2012(Relative Value of Bank Loan vs. High Yield Bonds). If April 2012 markedthe seventh inning, we may be headed towards extra innings of the credit rally. However, the
macroeconomic tailwinds supporting the U.S. leveraged credit market have the potential to
extend the rally. A strengthening economy, an accommodative Fed, and a dearth of viable xed
income alternatives should mitigate the impact of deteriorating fundamentals.
As the dynamics of the new issue market force investors to accept fewer protections and more
leverage to garner incremental yield, the value of bank loans has become even more apparent.
Moving up the capital structure from unsecured bonds into secured, oating-rate coupon,
shorter-maturity loans with covenants only costs investors 30 basis points in yield.
For investors willing to perform the requisite due diligence and analysis, upper middle-market nancings oer the potential for both greater yield and increased investor safeguards.
In an environment where there remain few opportunities for continued price appreciation,
we believe bank loans are the most attractive area of investment in 2013.
WINNING IN EXTRA INNINGS
SOURCE: CREDIT SUISSE. DATA AS OF DECEMBER 31, 2012.HISTORICAL REGRESSION OF HIGH YIELD BOND SPRE ADS AGAINST MONTHS FOLLOWING A RECESSION.
Credit Suisse High Yield Index Spreads (LHS) Recession Historical Regression
Analyzing the histo rical
performance during
previous post-recession
periods suggests that,
at current levels, bond
spreads could continue
to tighten in 2013.
However, with 86
percent of the market
currently trading at
par or better, these
opportunities primarily
exist in underfollowed,
o-the run securities. 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
400bps
800bps
1,600bps
1,200bps
200bps
0bps
600bps
1,000bps
1,800bps
1,400bps
2,000bps
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