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TRANSCRIPT
Higher education’s digital moment?
The prospects for ‘disruptive’ change
SROC
15 April 2014
Just what is a MOOC?
Massive
Open
Online
Courses
Scalable broadcast and peer learning pedagogy
Open registration, free content and flexible participation
Proprietary LMS or variety of free tools and resources
Short modules across different subjects and levels
A MOOC big bang?
Different pedagogical models
Broadcast xMOOC
Connectivist cMOOC
Illustrations: Miko Coffey
How big is massive?
Data source (April 2014): http://www.katyjordan.com/MOOCproject.html
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
100 1,000 10,000 100,000
% C
om
ple
tio
n
Total enrollment
MOOC enrollment and completion data
Analysing drivers of change
University interest
Public interest
Social and technological change
Market supply
Supply side expansion
Courtesy of Goldman Sachs
(What happened to the UK e-university?)
Availability of technology
Ofcom communications market report 2012 & 13
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2020 2011 2012 2013
Pro
po
rtio
n o
f ad
ult
s
Year
Household take-up of communication services
Internet
Total broadband
Internet on mobile
Text based communication
Communications market report 2012 (Ofcom)
Is this a moment?
University interest
Public interest
Social and technological change
Market supply
Funding expansion
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2014-15
Indicative breakdown of funding between loans for the graduate contribution and HEFCE
teaching grant, 2010-11 to 2014/15
Loans outlayto HEIs
Teachinggrant(adjustedbaseline)
4000
4500
5000
5500
6000
6500
7000
7500
8000
8500
9000
£ p
er
FT
E s
tud
en
t
Publicly planned unit of funding (real terms 2006-07=100)
grant + public fee
grant + public fee + privateregulated fee
grant + public fee + privateregulated fee + capital
US student credit crunch
Trends in college pricing 2013 (The college board)
Supply side diversification
0
50,000,000
100,000,000
150,000,000
200,000,000
250,000,000
300,000,000
350,000,000
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013(provisional)
Val
ue
(£
)
Year
Loan outlay for students enrolled at alternative providers
Fee loan
Maintenance loan
Total loan
Data source: student loans company
Expanding global demand
International and EU students registered on full-time programmes at English
HEIs 1981-82 – 2012-13
HEFCE 2014
Developing domestic systems
Growth in transnational education 2011-12 and 2012-13 (total student population)
HEFCE 2014
Global reach of online
Shift to knowledge economies
Work Foundation: A plan for growth in the
knowledge economy (2011)
Global knowledge economies
Serving knowledge workers?
Propositional knowledge & flexible delivery
Advanced learners & digitally literate
Post-graduate and CPD market?
High School 11.8%
Associate 8.2%
Bachelors 42.8%
Masters36.7%
Doctoral 5.4%
Coursera 2013: survey data of prior level of education
What are the implications?
A new marketing arm for the existing system?
A low cost + scalable model of delivery?
A fundamental transformation of the system?
…or none of the above?
• Higher education a service rather than substitutable product?
– Demand – the appeal of institutions
– Process - developmental and experiential
– Standards – statutory and professional
– Content – supported by complex expertise
– Strategy – proactive and innovative institutions
Disruption or evolution?
Digital rights strategy
• Resistance
• Blended
• Services
Shifting value chain?
Courseware
(content)
Learning
management
System
Personalised
feedback and
support
Higher education
award
Automated
feedback &
assessment
Certification
& ‘informal’
awards
Cost to student
Pro
vid
er
Free lower cost Higher cost
MO
OC
pla
tfo
rm
Hig
her
ed
uca
tio
n
inst
itu
tio
n
Co
st to H
EIScalable feedback
Low
erH
igher
UUK 2013
Unbundling credit
• Formal academic awards
– Validation & accreditation
– Articulation & transfer
– Recognition of prior learning
• ‘Informal’ awards
– Professional accreditation
– Certificates
– Badges
Pick and choose your route…?
Beyond MOOCs: Sustainable Online Learning in Institutions:
Li Yuan, Stephen Powell and Bill Olivier (Cetis, 2014)
Rethinking the class
• MOOCs as laboratories:• How to build peer learning• How to design broadcast• How to blend across provision• MOOCs as courseware• Opening the classroom
Creating value from data
• Third phase of information revolution…?– Big data
– Open data
– Linked data
– Machine readable web
– Internet of things
Scalable personalisation
• Course design
• Adaptive learning
• Social network analysis
• Signposting
Analytics and big data
Linked data
… ‘content’ is King?
Developing institutional strategy
Do you know what students and society needs?
Are you in a position to bring quality to ‘market’?
On-going success at the heart of social and economic advance?
Self interested and marginalised
Quality and reputation declinesNo
NoYes
Yes
Bringing knowledge to ‘market’...
Developing effective pedagogical models
Maintaining the right 'portfolio'
Making the right long term investments
Academic credit and rethinking the class
‘Content is king’
People, systems and infrastructure
…in an increasingly complex operating environment
From planning
To performance
Data
The real value of data is using it –
not collecting and owning it
What are UUK are doing to help?
• Influence the policy environment & support our members:
– Diamond efficiency programme (2)
– Sustainable student funding panel
– Creating value from data
– Economic value of higher education
– Immigration
– Regulation
Massive open online courses: higher education’s digital moment (2013)
Futures for higher education: analysing trends (2012)
More information