high impact weather events in the transition seasons: linked to global change? jonathan e. martin...
TRANSCRIPT
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High Impact Weather Events in the Transition Seasons:
Linked to Global Change?
Jonathan E. MartinUniversity of Wisconsin-Madison
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2132 UTC 26 October 2010
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Supertyphoon Megi – 17 October 2010
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00 UTC 20 October 20100.5 PVU isertel, Δp` (shaded), Wind speed at 348K
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00 UTC 21 October 20100.5 PVU isertel, Δp` (shaded), Wind speed at 348K
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00 UTC 22 October 20100.5 PVU isertel, Δp` (shaded), Wind speed at 348K
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00 UTC 23 October 20100.5 PVU isertel, Δp` (shaded), Wind speed at 348K
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00 UTC 24 October 20100.5 PVU isertel, Δp` (shaded), Wind speed at 348K
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00 UTC 25 October 20100.5 PVU isertel, Δp` (shaded), Wind speed at 348K
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00 UTC 16 October 2010
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00 UTC 22 October 2010
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00 UTC 22 October 2010and PV
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00 UTC 22 October 2010and PV
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Defant and Taba 1957
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Tropopause Pressure (mb) 1 January 1956
Defant and Taba 1957Defant and Taba 1957
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Likely that jet superpositions underlie some fraction of extreme weather events
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Can jet superpositions be objectively identified?
Likely that jet superpositions underlie some fraction of extreme weather events
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300 hPa Wind Speed0000 UTC 27 April 2010
Can jet superpositions be objectively identified?
Likely that jet superpositions underlie some fraction of extreme weather events
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A A`
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A A`
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A A`
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A A`
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0000 UTC 24 October 2010B B`
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0000 UTC 24 October 2010B B`
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0000 UTC 24 October 2010B B`
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0000 UTC 24 October 2010B B`
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00 UTC 24 October 20100.5 PVU isertel, Δp` (shaded), Wind speed at 348K
Subtropical/Polar jet Superpositions
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Subtropical Jet tied to the Hadley Circulation
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Subtropical Jet tied to the Hadley Circulation
Polar Jet tied to mid-latitudebaroclinicity
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Subtropical Jet tied to the Hadley Circulation
Polar Jet tied to mid-latitudebaroclinicity
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Warmer planet encourages a quicker northward return of the ITCZ
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Warmer planet encourages a quicker northward return of the ITCZ
Extends the period of possible jet superpositions
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Warmer planet encourages a quicker northward return of the ITCZ
Extends the period of possible jet superpositions
More frequent, extreme weather in mid-latitudes??
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Warmer planet encourages longer TC season in West Pacific
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Warmer planet encourages longer TC season in West Pacific
Extends the period of possible jet superpositions
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Warmer planet encourages longer TC season in West Pacific
Extends the period of possible jet superpositions
More frequent, extreme weather in mid-latitudes??
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Next Steps
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Next Steps
Construct 50 year climatology of jet superpositions
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Next Steps
Construct 50 year climatology of jet superpositions
Consider relationships between jet superpositions and various categories of high impact weather
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Next Steps
Construct 50 year climatology of jet superpositions
Consider relationships between jet superpositions and various categories of high impact weather
Provide a synoptic-dynamic context for predictions of increased frequency of extreme weather in a warmer climate
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Next Steps
Construct 50 year climatology of jet superpositions
Consider relationships between jet superpositions and various categories of high impact weather
Provide a synoptic-dynamic context for predictions of increased frequency of extreme weather in a warmer climate
Provide more tenable physical linkages between traditional climate science and traditional weather systems science
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1800 UTC 1 May 2010
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1800 UTC 1 May 2010
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1800 UTC 1 May 2010
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1800 UTC 1 May 2010
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1800 UTC 1 May 2010