here comes the sun
DESCRIPTION
Here comes the sun. Brazilian American Chamber of Commerce New York , November 30th 2010. Rafael Kelman [email protected]. Renewable energy in Brazil. 85% of Brazil’s power supply (104 thousand MW of installed capacity) comes from renewable sources - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Here comes the sun
Brazilian American Chamber of Commerce
New York, November 30th 2010
Rafael Kelman
Renewable energy in Brazil
► 85% of Brazil’s power supply (104 thousand MW of installed
capacity) comes from renewable sources
► Hydropower has been – and still is – the most important
energy source
► More recently, biomass and wind have become fully
competitive Contracted in competitive auctions
No subsidies
What about solar?
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Solar PV production in Rio (http://www.pvwatts.org/)
Watts of electricity production for installed kW
Annual production of 1352 kWh per kW of installed capacity (capacity factor of 15%)
Production during winter is only 20% smaller than summer. Belo Monte hydro plant produces 15 times less energy in September (dry period) than April (wet period).
Some recent solar initiatives in Brazil
► MPX (Eike Batista) announced a 1 MW of thermal power
project to be developed in the state of Ceará ($6 million)
► Spanish Solaria announced a joint venture with Cemig
(Minas Gerais) for a 3 MW grid-connected solar plant in Brazil
► WHAT ABOUT COST?
PV panel cost
Inverter cost is $0,33/Watt
Solar PV costs in Rio
Solar PV Panel Width 1.635 m Height 0.991 m Thickness 0.050 m Panel area 1.620 m2 Panel peak capacity 220 W Nominal voltage 28.8 V Nominal current 7.63 A
Dimensioning Peak capacity 40,000 Watts Number of panels 182 unidTotal area 354 m2
Equipment cost sin Brazil Panel cost (FOB) 1.85 $/W Inverter cost (FOB) 0.33 $/W Exchange rate 1.75 R$/US$ Taxes 25 % Unit cost 1,051 R$/unid
Installation cost Installation 50 R$/m2 Total 17,694 R$
Feasibility Total cost 208,897 R$ Discount rate (real) 7 %/yr Lifetime 15 years O&M Cost 2,000 R$/yr Total annual cost 23,435 R$/yr Production 54,119 MWh/yr Solar PV Cost 433 R$/MWh
Can solar compete on the generation side in Brazil?
NO
Hydro generation cost: 120 R$/MWh
Solar cost: 433 R$/MWh
Can solar compete on the end-user side?
YES
Solar cost: 433 R$/MWh
End-user electricity bill: 485 R$/MWh
Why?
► Although generation costs are cheap (120 R$/MWh),
transmission + distribution + taxes (lots of them!) make the
final electricity bill very expensive 485 R$/MWh
► By injecting (solar) energy into the end-user building, the
avoided cost is the full bill
Synergy between PV production and load profile
► Comfort temperature is such that positive deviates
provide the highest response of demand due to
air conditioning
► In Light (Rio), this happens at 23 Celsius (74 Fahrenheit)
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Temperatura
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R2 = 0,95temperatura de conforto = 23,1°C
Carga Própria
Comfort temperature: 23 Celsius
Temperature
First results of the new trend…
► EcoSolar (Emerson Kapaz) announced a PV plant in Recife US$ 350 million investment
Plant capacity: 800,000 panels totaling 120 MW per year
Oerlikon (Switzerland) technology used
Protocol of intentions signed with the State of Pernambuco
Opportunities
► Solar PV is already competitive against the final electricity bill► If the trend of Solar PV cost reduction continues, we can
expect a “wave” of solar installation in Brazil► Rio de Janeiro will possibly lead:
Resource: sunny city Synergy: peak PV production (“sunniest” hour) happens when
electricity consumption is greater due to air conditioning. Timing: 2014 World Cup and 2016 Olympics have a green appeal
Challenges
► Utilities currently have no incentives to promote energy efficiency as
smaller demand equals less revenues in present regulation
► The same (lack of) logic applies to Solar PV
► The regulatory agency (Aneel) should be encourage to change the
regulation
► A possible approach A variable amount which depends on the kWh consumption (as today)
A fixed amount (wire tariff) for the peak consumption, as the grid will still be used
by consumers that install PV solutions
► Also, utilities should be encouraged to get involved in PV leasing,
installation, etc.
