Helping farmers manage climate variability the DrylandsA.M. Whitbread & TeamInstitute of Law, NIRMA University, Ahmedabad, Gujarat, India08 Nov 2014

Outline

• Define the Drylands and the challenges• Is climate changing and why?• How might we help farmers deal with climate variability?

Dryland Systems:

• 65 % of the worlds agricultural lands fall into the category of Drylands

• 2.5 billion people live in the Drylands• The majority of the poorest people live in

semi-arid areas• 644 million people are the poorest of the

poor• 1/3 of these rely on agriculture for their

livelihoods• 42% (27) of children in the Drylands of

Asia (SSA) are malnourished• Mixed (crop-livestock) farming systems

are predominant agricultural system

Challenges above the farm level…global challenges• Poor governance and political instability• Lack of political will in putting Drylands on the agenda• Lack of infrastructure, institutions and human capacity• Market failure or unfair policies creating skewed markets

• Gender inequalityFarm level challenges• Land fragmentation (e.g. Eastern Ethiopia- land size 0.5-0.25 ha)• Labour cost and availability• Conflict for resources (water, grazing rights)• Severe environmental degradation• High inherent climate variability and severe threat of higher

temperatures/lower rainfall and higher variability due to climate change

Markets

Tradeoffs and scale

Microbe-plant

Community, watershed, region…

Farm, household, livelihood…

Field, flock, forest

Markets

Resilient Dryland Systems:One of the 4 research programs at ICRISAT - ~34 FTE scientists across all locations (south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa)

• Undertakes ‘Systems’ research - uses multidisciplinary research (biophysical, social and economic sciences) to understand the ‘system’ context for better targeting and adoption of intervention strategies- these are IMOD driven strategies.

• An R4D approach at a range of scales but there is a focus at the level of the farm and one step above and below this scale (i.e. field-farm-watershed)

• Tools – Agro-meterology, crop modelling, household surveys, spatial analysis, innovation platforms/value chains.

Location and characteristics of the action sites

Is climate changing and why?

Contd…

FAO, 2014

http://www.wmo.int/pages/meetings/wrkshopipccparis014_en.html

Results of climate change analysis

Kesava Rao, Suhas P Wani, KK Singh, M Irshad Ahmed, K Srinivas, Snehal D Bairagi and O Ramadevi. 2013. Increased arid and semi-arid areas in India with associated shifts during 1971-2004.

J. of Agrometeorology 15 (1): 11- 18 (June 2013)

Change in areas between 1971-90 and 1991-2004Indian States

What does this mean for farmers?

Impacts

In the drylands, there is no average

Chisepo seasonal rainfall variation

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Sth Mallee Farm - Farm Profit vs Cropping year rainfall

Farm Profit/Loss

Cropping year rainfall

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Actual farm data – southern Mallee farm (5200ha), 80% crop and 20% livestock (by area)Costs: Inputs, Machinery, Labour and FinancialData courtesy of Harm van Rees (CropFacts)

Australian farming is riskyActual farm profit for a Victorian mixed farm 1990-2010

75% profits in 25% years; losses in 50% years

Waikerie rotation experimentCalcarosol, PAWC = 70 mm; Treatments comparing district practice (pasture-wheat) Vs opportunity and intensive cropping.11 seasons 1998-2008

Effect of variations in PAW and seeding opportunity on percentage of modelled yields

Upper tercile (white)Middle tercile (grey)Lower tercile (black)

Planting opportunity: Early Late

Zone 1 – Hill topsIssues (water repellent, prone to root disease, high risk of wind erosion)Yield limited by nutritionConsider in-season N applications

Zone 2 - MidslopesVariable productionManage zone strategically In season decisions on input levels

Zone 3 - FlatsPoor yielding in dry years but may perform well in wet yearsSeldom nutrient limited so reduce inputsIn season decisions on end use (graze/hay/grain)

Some practical possibilities for Indian Farmers.

• Analysis of historical climate records (ENSO events, probabilistic decision points, opportunities for reducing risk).

• Better use of seasonal forecasts by making the forecasts relevant at a local level

• Having a wide range of crop/variety type options and seed available.

• Crop weather insurance

• Increased requirement for information on soils/crop response/forecasting

CCAFS- Project Operational Area• Kurnool, Anantapur are part

of Scarce rainfall Zone of Andhra Pradesh in Southern India.

• Kurnool: Annual normal rainfall 765 mm, Vertisols those support LGP up to 165d, rich crop diversity.

• Anantapur: Annual normal rainfall 560 mm, shallow Alfisols, low LGP <140d, peanut systems are dominant and less cropping options

ENSO Phase Analyses 1950-2002

El NinoLa Nina Neutral

ENSO Phases

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)Anantapur

El Nino La Nina NeutralENSO Phases

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Smith and Reynolds (2003) Extended Reconstructed SSTs of (1971-2000) 3.4 region (El Nino 16, La Nina 15, Neutral 22)

ENSO Phase Analyses

El Nino La Nina NeutralENSO Phases

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(mm

)Nandyala

El Nino La Nina NeutralENSO Phases

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Smith and Reynolds (2003) Extended Reconstructed SSTs of (1971-2000) 3.4 region (El Nino 16, La Nina 15, Neutral 22)

Evaluation of forecast informationDiscussions with farmers

• Farmers’ crop management decisions during the season have been recorded as against discussed crop options

• Village meetings were conducted participating farmers to discuss their management decisions during the season.

• To understand their future needs on rainfall forecast information

• Ways of disseminating the CF information

Climate awareness at watershedsSharing of agroclimatic information with farmers – wall writings

Weather awareness at watersheds

Training to the farmers to operate and maintain the ICRISAT fabricated raingauge at Bharkheda Khurd watershed, Chachoda Block, Guna district, MP

Farmers themselves measure rainfall and record. Datalogger nevertheless records rainfall automatically, which will be downloaded at regular intervals

Weather awareness at watersheds Training to students to

operate and maintain the AW Station

Students collect weather parameters daily and display at the school

Climate awareness for Farm Facilitators

District Agricultural Training Centre, Gulbarga

Extension material

• The Drylands are highly complex environments- to seriously effect change, we must consider the context and above all ‘risk’.

• Huge gains in productivity can be immediately be gained by better crop management and integration of knowledge – and building human capacity, transferring knowledge…BUT in the context of the system and risk.

• Science and policy need to be much closer.• Partnerships is perhaps the single most important aspect for responding to

climate change – much greater levels of partnership must be put in place.

Summing up

Thank you!

ICRISAT is a member of the CGIAR Consortium

Climate Smart

Villages

Community

approach to

adaptation and

mitigation

Adaptation

Food securit

yMitigation

Objectives in climate-smart

villages?

Climate Smart

Technologies

Climate Information

Services

Local Knowledge

and Institutions

Village Developmen

t Plans

Climate Smart Village

Key components