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3MO

4/11/2014 THE MACRO SHOW

April 11, 2016

HEDGEYE ASSET ALLOCATION

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April 11, 2016

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

CASH U.S.EQUITIES

INT'LEQUITIES

COMMODITIES FOREIGNEXCHANGE

FIXED INCOME

65%

0% 0%

21%

9%

76%

HEDGEYE ASSET ALLOCATION

The maximum preferred exposure for cash is 100%. The maximum preferred exposure for each of the other asset classes is 33%.

1 2 3

USD

OIL

UST 10YR

USD After falling another -0.4% last week to year-to-date lows of -4.5%, the U.S. Dollar Index is signaling immediate-term oversold in my model for the first time in April (the 30-day correlation between USD and S&P 500 is -0.90).

OIL WTI was up +8% last week after falling -7% in the week prior. This will be as important to watch as anything U.S. Equity Market Beta this week; risk range is signaling a lower-high of $39.99/barrel as Oil Volatility (OVX) signals a higher-low of 43.14.

UST 10YR A whole lot of nothing happening from a sovereign bond market volatility perspective (Long Bond Bulls should enjoy that as it signals growth has not “bottomed”). The UST 10YR Yield was -5 basis points last week and down -55 basis points year-to-date at 1.72%.

U.S. MACRO & HOUSING

CHRISTIAN DRAKE

SUPPLY SIDE ECONOMICS

HEDGEYE 11

• Low Rates

• Negative/Low Equity

• Tighter Credit

• Home Price Spreads

• Demographics

• Investors

INVENTORY: THE WHY OF SUPPLY

HEDGEYE 12

INVENTORY: ON THE LOWS

DATA SOURCE: BLOOMBERG, NAR, HEDGEYE

HEDGEYE 13

SUPPLY: LONG-TERM LOWS

DATA SOURCE: BLOOMBERG, NAR

HEDGEYE 14

SUPPLY: RATE RETICENCE

DATA SOURCE: MBA, CENSUS BUREAU, CORELOGIC, REALTYTRAC, HEDGEYE

HEDGEYE 15

SUPPLY: EQUITY OVERHANG

DATA SOURCE: CORELOGIC

HEDGEYE 16

MCAI ↓: TRADE OR TREND? Meanwhile, mortgage credit availability, which had been on a long-term upswing, recently negatively inflected.

DATA SOURCE: MBA,

HEDGEYE 17

SUPPLY: CREDIT CONSTRAINTS Meanwhile, mortgage credit availability, which had been on a long-term upswing, recently negatively inflected.

DATA SOURCE: MBA,

HEDGEYE 18

SUPPLY: CREDIT CONSTRAINTS This is simply a longer-term snapshot of credit availability for some added perspective.

DATA SOURCE: MBA

HEDGEYE 19

SUPPLY: CREDIT CONSTRAINTS Standards remain well below long-term equilibrium.

DATA SOURCE: URBAN INSTITUTE

HEDGEYE 20

SUPPLY: PREMIUM SPREADS

DATA SOURCE: BLOOMBERG, HEDGEYE

HEDGEYE 21

BOOMERS AGING IN PLACE

BOOMERS’ FAMILIES ARE GETTING SMALLER…

BUT THE SHARE LIVING IN SINGLE-FAMILY DETACHED

HOMES IS UNCHANGED

HEDGEYE 22

BOOMERS AGING IN PLACE

SOURCE: AARP (2012)

HEDGEYE 23

GEN X IN TROUBLE

Gen X

HEDGEYE 24

GEN X IN TROUBLE

DATA SOURCE: CENSUS BUREAU

HEDGEYE 25

RENTAL INVENTORY STILL NEGATIVE

DATA SOURCE: FREDDIE MAC

HEDGEYE 26

OLD FORMAT = $800/SQUARE FT NEW FORMAT = $1,300 SQ FT

GDP: RESIDUAL SEASONALITY

1Q RESIDUAL SEASONALITY NEGATIVE IN 3 OF LAST 5 YEARS

DATA SOURCE: BLOOMBERG

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April 11, 2016

HEDGEYE MACRO PROCESS: RATE OF CHANGE

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April 11, 2016

HEDGEYE SECTOR PERFORMANCE

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April 11, 2016

HEDGEYE SECTOR RELATIVE PERFORMANCE

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April 11, 2016

HEDGEYE STYLE FACTOR PERFORMANCE

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April 11, 2016

HEDGEYE RATES & SPREADS

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April 11, 2016

CFTC NON-COMMERCIAL NET LONG POSITIONING

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April 11, 2016

MARKET SHARE VOLUME & TOTAL VALUE TRADED

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April 11, 2016

BACK TO GROWTH SLOWING ALLOCATION

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April 11, 2016

1.60

1.80

2.00

2.20

2.40

2.60

UST 10YR U.S. 10-YEAR YIELD

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April 11, 2016

0

200,000,000

400,000,000

600,000,000

800,000,000

1,000,000,000

1,200,000,000

1,400,000,000

1,600,000,000

1,800,000,000

2,000,000,000

1,700

1,750

1,800

1,850

1,900

1,950

2,000

2,050

2,100

PR

ICE

SPX S&P 500 INDEX V

OL

UM

E

3MO


April 11, 2016

1,700

1,800

1,900

2,000

2,100

SPX S&P 500 INDEX

3MO


April 11, 2016

900

940

980

1,020

1,060

1,100

1,140

1,180

1,220

RTY RUSSELL 2000 INDEX

3MO


April 11, 2016

RTY RUSSELL 2000 INDEX P

RIC

E

VO

LU

ME

0

100,000,000

200,000,000

300,000,000

400,000,000

500,000,000

600,000,000

700,000,000

800,000,000

900,000,000

900

940

980

1,020

1,060

1,100

1,140

1,180

1,220

3MO


April 11, 2016

10

15

20

25

30

35

VIX VOLATILITY INDEX

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April 11, 2016

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

CLA WTI CRUDE OIL

3MO


April 11, 2016

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

PR

ICE

CLA WTI CRUDE OIL V

OL

UM

E

3MO


April 11, 2016

90

92

94

96

98

100

102

DXY U.S. DOLLAR INDEX SPOT

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April 11, 2016

CRY TR/CC CRB COMMODITY INDEX

150

160

170

180

190

200

210

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April 11, 2016

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

980

1,030

1,080

1,130

1,180

1,230

1,280

1,330

GOLD GOLD SPOT P

RIC

E V

OL

UM

E

3MO


April 11, 2016

980

1,030

1,080

1,130

1,180

1,230

1,280

1,330

GOLD GOLD SPOT

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April 11, 2016

HGA COPPER

175

185

195

205

215

225

235

245

3MO


April 11, 2016

1.40

1.60

1.80

2.00

2.20

2.40

2.60

2.80 NGA NATURAL GAS SPOT

3MO


April 11, 2016

1.04

1.06

1.08

1.10

1.12

1.14

1.16

EURO EURO SPOT

3MO


April 11, 2016

106

108

110

112

114

116

118

120

122

124 YEN JAPANESE YEN SPOT

3MO


April 11, 2016

13,000

14,500

16,000

17,500

19,000

20,500

22,000

NKY NIKKEI-225 STOCK AVERAGE

3MO


April 11, 2016

0

500,000,000

1,000,000,000

1,500,000,000

2,000,000,000

2,500,000,000

3,000,000,000

3,500,000,000

4,000,000,000

13,000

14,500

16,000

17,500

19,000

20,500

22,000

VO

LU

ME

NKY NIKKEI-225 STOCK AVERAGE P

RIC

E

3MO


April 11, 2016

0

5,000,000,000

10,000,000,000

15,000,000,000

20,000,000,000

25,000,000,000

30,000,000,000

35,000,000,000

40,000,000,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

SHCOMP SHANGHAI COMPOSITE INDEX V

OL

UM

E

PR

ICE

3MO


April 11, 2016

2,500

2,750

3,000

3,250

3,500

3,750

4,000

SHCOMP SHANGHAI COMPOSITE INDEX

3MO


April 11, 2016

IBEX 35 SPANISH CONTINUOUS MARKET

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

11,000

3MO


April 11, 2016

8,000

8,500

9,000

9,500

10,000

10,500

11,000

11,500

12,000

DAX GERMAN STOCK INDEX

3MO


April 11, 2016

0

50,000,000

100,000,000

150,000,000

200,000,000

250,000,000

8,000

8,500

9,000

9,500

10,000

10,500

11,000

11,500

12,000

VO

LU

ME

DAX GERMAN STOCK INDEX P

RIC

E

3MO


April 11, 2016

UST 2YR U.S. GENERIC GOVT 2-YEAR YIELD

0.40

0.50

0.60

0.70

0.80

0.90

1.00

1.10

1.20

3MO


April 11, 2016

HSI HONG KONG HANG SENG INDEX

17,000

18,000

19,000

20,000

21,000

22,000

23,000

24,000

3MO


April 11, 2016

SENSEX BSE INDIAN SENSEX INDEX

22,000

23,000

24,000

25,000

26,000

27,000

3MO


April 11, 2016

1,725

1,825

1,925

2,025

2,125

KOSPI SOUTH KOREA KOSPI INDEX

3MO


April 11, 2016

5,500

5,700

5,900

6,100

6,300

6,500

6,700

UKX UK FTSE 100 INDEX

3MO


April 11, 2016

350

400

450

500

550

600

650

700

750

800

ASE ATHENS STOCK EXCHANGE GENERAL

3MO


April 11, 2016

600

650

700

750

800

850

900

950

RTS RUSSIAN RTS INDEX

3MO


April 11, 2016

8,000

8,500

9,000

9,500

10,000

10,500

11,000

11,500

12,000

DAX GERMAN STOCK INDEX

3MO


April 11, 2016

CAC FRANCE CAC 40 INDEX

3,500

3,700

3,900

4,100

4,300

4,500

4,700

4,900

5,100

3MO


April 11, 2016

14,500

16,000

17,500

19,000

20,500

22,000

23,500

FTSE MIB BORSA ITALIANA INDEX

3MO


April 11, 2016

1.36

1.40

1.44

1.48

1.52

1.56

1.60

POUND BRITISH POUND SPOT

3MO


April 11, 2016

4,250

4,500

4,750

5,000

5,250

5,500

5,750

PSI 20 PORTUGAL PSI 20 INDEX

3MO


April 11, 2016

AS51 AUSTRALIA’S S&P/ASX 200 INDEX

4,600

4,800

5,000

5,200

5,400

5,600

3MO


April 11, 2016

RUB RUSSIAN RUBLE SPOT

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

3MO


April 11, 2016

XOP OIL & GAS ETF

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

3YR


25

30

35

40

45

50

55 COA BRENT CRUDE OIL FUTURE

April 11, 2016

hedgeye asset allocation - docs.hedgeye.comdocs.hedgeye.com/he_tms_drake_4.11.16.pdf210. 3 mo the...

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