hazards of smoking & benefits of stopping
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Hazards of smoking & benefits of stoppingTRANSCRIPT
The hazards of smokingand the benefits of stopping
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The hazards of smokingand the benefits of stopping
• Particular emphasis is given to the risk of deathin middle age (defined as ages 35-69)
• Available on www.other-mother.in
• This presentation provides evidence from the UK and the USA, where the health effects of smoking have been studied over a long period, but these findings apply tomany other countries
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Main messages for the individual smoker
– Even in early middle age, those who stop (before they have lung cancer or some other fatal disease) avoid most of their risk of being killed by tobacco
• Those killed in middle age lose many years
• Stopping smoking works
– Stopping before middle age works even better
• The risk is big: about half are killed
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Stopping smoking: avoiding lung cancer
% dead fromlung cancer
Continued smoking: 16% dead from lung cancer
Stopped age 50: 6%
Stopped age 30: 2%
Never smoked: <1%
15
10
5
0
45 55 65 75Age
Cumulative risk at UK male 1990 ratesBMJ 2000; 321: 323-9 Brought to you by
Delay between cause and effect:cigarettes, then lung cancer deaths
Cigarettes per adult per day
10
5
0
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000USA:
lung cancer
lung cancer
cigarette consumption+
Lung cancer deaths per million per year
0
500
1,000
Long-term study of persistent smoking
• They were studied for 50 years by Richard Doll
• Source: “Mortality in relation to smoking:50 years’ observations on male British doctors”Doll R, Peto R et al. BMJ 2004; 328: 1519-28
• UK men born in the 20th century: first population in theworld exposed to really prolonged cigarette smoking
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Study of smoking and death in male British doctors
• Recorded all deaths for 50 years (1951-2001)
• Main findings (for men born in the 20th century)– Smokers lose, on average, 10 years of healthy life
• Asked all UK doctors in 1951, and periodically thereafter, what they themselves smoked
– Stopping smoking worksBrought to you by
Survival to age 70 and beyond:effect of smoking in male British doctors
0
20
40
60
80
100
% survivalfrom age 35
40 50 60 70 80 90 100Age
97
94
91
81
59
26
24
42
10years
10years
58%Cigarettesmokers
Non-smokers81%
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Effect of stopping smoking at about age 40
% survivalfrom age 40
0
20
40
60
80
100
40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Age
Non-smokers
Cigarettesmokers
and gained about 9 yearsEx-smokers stopped at 35-44
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Decrease in smoking prevalence
• In 1950, about 80% of UK men smoked
United Kingdom, 1950-2002
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
0
20
40
60
80
%at ages35-59
70%
50%
28%
26%
% smoked
% smoked
• In 1970, UK male death rates from smoking were the worst in the world
• 1970-2000, decrease in male death rates from smoking was the best in the world
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Looking back to 1970 death rates:of 100 men aged 35 …
United Kingdom, 1970
*risks at year 1970death rates for ages 35-69
• 42 would have died in middle age*
42%
• 20 of these 42 deaths would have been from smoking
20
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Male death in middle age: changing hazards*
United Kingdom, 1950-2000
*risks at period-specificdeath rates for ages 35-69
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
44%
43%
42%
43%
42%
39%
37%
35%
31%
28%
25%
All causes15
18
19
20
20
17
16
14
11
8
6
Smoking
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Male death in middle age: changing hazards*
Poland, 1955-2000
*risks at period-specificdeath rates for ages 35-69
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
44%
All causes
40%
39%
41%
41%
46%
46%
47%
45%
41%
6
8
9
12
13
16
19
20
19
16
Smoking
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Main messages for the individual smoker
• Those killed in middle age may well lose10, 20, 30 or more good years
• Stopping smoking works
• The risk is big: about half are killed
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Richard Doll (1912-2005), who stopped smoking cigarettes at age 37,photographed aged 91 at the 2004 BMJ press conferenceon the 50-year results from his study of British doctors
Michael Crabtree, copyright Troika PhotosBrought to you by
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