hayhoe climate
TRANSCRIPT
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WHAT IS HAPPENING TO OUR WORLD … AND WHAT CAN WE DO ABOUT IT?!
KATHARINE HAYHOE
a climate for change!
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America’s first climate refugees: ALASKA
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Frozen ground is melting & eroding
The people of Newtok, AK
have already been driven from
their homes.
Kivalina may be next.
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What is happening to our world?
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The Earth is getting warmer …
9 of last 10 years warmest on record
2000s: warmest decade on record
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… despite recent claims of “cooling”
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It’s happening faster and faster
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And this is just a fraction of total heating.
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Sea level is rising, as ice sheets melt
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Arctic sea ice is shrinking
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Blomstrandbrennen Glacier in Norway
1922 1992
Too much water, as glaciers melt
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Franz Josef Glacier, New Zealand
Too much water, as glaciers melt
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Orubare Glacier, Uganda
Too much water, as glaciers melt
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Shepard Glacier, Glacier National Park, USA
When the park was created: over 150 glaciers
In 2005: 27 glaciers remaining
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Too much water, as glaciers melt
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The Rhone glacier in the Bernese Oberland, Switzerland
Too much water, as glaciers melt
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Not enough water, as others are in drought
Central Africa
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Ecosystems shifting, as temperatures warm
Where you live today feels like it used to
~200 miles south, just 25 years ago.
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Our world is changing
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Our world is changing
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Our world is changing
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Our world is changing
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Our world is changing
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Our world is changing
Responses to warming
temperatures seen in
more than 26,000 physical
and biological systems
around the world.
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Are these conditions unusual?
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“Natural” thermometer records
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Conditions today are unusual in the
context of the last 2,000 years …
Today"
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… and even the last 6,000 years.
Today"
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Why is this happening?
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Could it be the sun?
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Today"
What about natural cycles?
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What about natural cycles?
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An extra “blanket” around the Earth
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We produce heat-trapping gases
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From our factories, cars, homes, farms
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Who is responsible?
Last year, annual emissions from China caught up with those from the US.
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How do we know it’s us?
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Quantifying the human influence
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Quantifying the human influence
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But what about …
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It’s snowing today! Record cold!
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It’s snowing today! Record cold!
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Maybe it’s just
the urban heat
island effect.
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Didn’t those stolen emails disprove it?
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Warming of the climate system is now evident from observations. Most of the increase is very likely (>90%) due to the observed increase in heat-trapping gas concentrations due to human activities [including burning fossil fuels].
Climatic change is being brought about by human-induced increases in the concentration of
atmospheric carbon dioxide, primarily through the processes of combustion [burning] of fossil fuels.
Aren’t scientists always disagreeing?
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Warming of the climate system is now evident from observations. Most of the increase is very likely (>90%) due to the observed increase in heat-trapping gas concentrations due to human activities [including burning fossil fuels].
Climatic change is being brought about by human-induced increases in the concentration of
atmospheric carbon dioxide, primarily through the processes of combustion [burning] of fossil fuels.
The United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2007
“The Artificial Production of Carbon Dioxide and Its Influence on Temperature”
Guy Callendar, 1938
Aren’t scientists always disagreeing?
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Humans are the only explanation.
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Why should I care?
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We’re already concerned about this
What can we expect in the future?
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But this is what’s coming next.
What can we expect in the future?
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Future change depends on our choices now
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Hot and sticky summers:
MD under lower emissions
SC under higher emissions
What does this mean … for Massachusetts?
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Summers: hot and humid
Winters: warmer,
but just as much snow
SUMMER
WINTER
What does this mean … for Chicago?
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What does this mean … for the US?
Weeks per Year > 100oF (38oC)
Historical
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What does this mean … for the US?
Future: Lower Emissions
Weeks per Year > 100oF (38oC)
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What does this mean … for the US?
Future: Higher Emissions
Weeks per Year > 100oF (38oC)
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This century: hundreds of millions of refugees
In 2009: 300,000 deaths per year
300 million already at risk from climate change
What does this mean … for the world?
In 2000: 150,000 deaths per year
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More frequent & severe heat waves
What does this mean … for Europe?
European Heat Wave of 2003
>70,000 deaths
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What does this mean … for Australia?
More droughts & wildfires
like the devastating fires
of January 2009.
More unpredictable
weather conditions.
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What does this mean … for Latin America?
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What does this mean … for California?
Half of
California’s
water comes
from mountain
snow.
70-90% of that
could be gone
before the end
of the century.
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Warmer water =
Stronger tropical
storms
What does this mean … for our coasts?
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Hurricane power and ocean temperature
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Rising sea level
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What does this mean … for our coasts?
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Tuvalu, South Pacific
… and even entire nations?
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Today, our neighbors are being harmed
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What can we do about it?
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We have 3 choices:
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1. Educate ourselves
How climate change affects us here in the US US Global Change Program
www.globalchange.gov/usimpacts
How we know it’s happening and
why it matters climateforchangethebook.com
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2. Prepare for what we can’t avoid
Conserve the
resources we have
Protect ourselves from
what we can
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3. Reduce our own impact
stop using this start using this Each US household replacing 1 light bulb
= taking 1,000,000 cars off the road (+$30 savings per bulb)
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stop using this start using this
4. Support fundamental change
Renewable energy gives us clean air and water, and home-grown energy sources that will never run out. So, why not?
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Change is happening
1992 UN Framework Convention on Climate Change
167 nations agree to reduce heat-trapping gas emissions, to
prevent dangerous human interference with climate system.
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Change is
possible
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THE END
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