hasan kosebalaban turkey new middle east

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93PERCEPIONS, Autumn 2011, Volume XVI, Number 3, pp. 93-114.

Introducton

It s oten asked whether t sobjectve materal nterests or deas and

perceptons that are decsve on urkeys

Mddle East polcy durng the AK Party

era. However, t s qute hard to answer

ths queston snce the AK party accededto power n a rather crtcal stage wth

regards to relatons wth the Mddle East.

At ths crtcal juncture the ntellectualand structural context o the Mddle

East had been sgncantly shaped by theSeptember 11 terrorst attacks and the

subsequent Iraq war n 2003. It could be

thereore argued that many polces that

emerged wth the AK Party governmentsntatves and ascrbed to ntellectual

actors have actually refected changes nthe strategc and structural envronment

surroundng urkey. Ts does not mean

that the AK Party leaders had no eecton the ormaton o polces. However,

wth the advantage o the ntellectual

oundatons t represents, the AK Party

government has been able to portray a

more fexble and dynamc oregn polcyperspectve as regards the Mddle East.

Hasan KSEBALABAN*

urkey and the New Mddle East:Between Lberalsm and Realsm

Abstract

It s sometmes argued that urksh oregn

polcy under the AK Party government reectsts deology, and urksh oregn polcy towardsthe Mddle East s oten used as an llustratono ths nuence. When t s closely examned,however, one can easly see that the governmenthas oten ollowed a manly realst oregnpolcy approach n the Mddle East and usedthe dealsm or the maxmzaton o urkshnatonal nterests. In contrast to the powerresources at the dsposal o other regonalpowers, ncludng the support o externalpowers, sectaran denttes, or ethnc-lngustctes, the key asset o urksh oregn polcy s tssuccessul combnaton o democracy and Islam.Utlzng ths mage, urkey has emerged asthe most outspoken supporter o democratctransormatons, amng to create a lberal-democratc regonal order. Ts, however, brngsurkey ultmately nto conct wth other

asprng hegemonc powers, ncludng bothIsrael and Iran.

Key Words

urkey, Mddle East, Lberalsm,Realsm, Arab Sprng.

* Assst. Pro. Dr., Department o PoltcalScence and Internatonal Relatons, stanbulehr Unversty.


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role n the confcts between ts closealles and neghbours. Although urkeys

medaton eorts between Israel andSyra as well as between the Unted Statesand Iran have been aborted, they werenevertheless ntatves that emphaszedassertveness n urksh oregn polcy.By vrtue o ths proactve atttudethat numerous oregn observers haveevaluated as neo-Ottomansm, urkeyhas embraced or tsel an actve role

not only n the Mddle East, but also nCentral Asa and Northern Arca.2

In ths artcle, a general perspectveon the Mddle Eastern polcy thaturkey has pursued n the last ten yearswll be presented by examnng urkeysrelatons wth our power blocs n theregon: (1) Israel, (2) Iran, (3) the Arabcountres that are wthn Irans sphere onfuence (Iraq, Syra and Lebanon) and(4) the Arab countres whch stand nopposton to Irans ncreasng domnancen the regon (apart rom Egypt, Saud

Araba, the Unted Arab Emrates andBahran). Evdently ths categorzatonshows that the most sgncant actor

n urksh oregn polcy makng vs--vs the Mddle East s the emergence oIrans regonal hegemony.

In the AK Party era, urkey hassucceeded n returnng to the regon

as a normal power wthout havng anhstorcal xaton. In ths sense, t couldbe argued that AK Party government,wth ts strong mandate, has realzeda revson n oregn polcy that couldnot be completed ollowng the end othe Cold War due to domestc poltcalnstablty. Te AK Party has projectedto the regon a vson that emphaszessecular democracy and ts compatbltywth Islam. As Fuller ndcates Formost Arabs, the electon o a mldlyIslamst party n Ankara exempledthat countres, whch shares commonhertage and hstory can unte oneday.1 As a symbolc expresson oths reuncaton, urkey acltated

the electon o Pro. Dr. Ekmeleddnhsanolu, an academc who s closelyacquanted wth the regon, as theGeneral Secretary o the Organzatono Islamc Conerence n 2005 n therst democratc electons conducted nthe hstory o the organzaton. It wasa symbolc expresson o the message

that the Islamc world and the MddleEast are, rom now on, located at thecentre o urksh oregn polcy and thaturkey desres to see materalzaton o ademocratc Islamc world.

In accordance wth Foregn MnsterAhmet Davutolus polcy target o zeroproblems wth neghbours, urkey

moved to assert tsel as a central playern the regon by playng a medatory

Te outbreak o the Arabdemocratc revolts n the wntero 2010-2011 caused a dramatcrupture n ths regard by orcnga revson o oregn polcy.


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general electons, many nternal andexternal poltcal observers were curous

about the nature o the new governmentsIsrael polces. Accordng to some crcles,ths subject was a ltmus test o the newgovernments loyalty to secularsm.Subsequent to the February 28 process,even a slght devaton rom the pro-Israel perspectve was seen as sucentto reveal ts Islamc dentty. Presumably,takng these concerns nto consderaton,Recep ayyp Erdoan beore assumngthe post o Prme Mnster pad a vstto Washngton and held meetngs atseveral key Jewsh nsttutons where heexpressed a strong wll to urther developthe relatons between urkey andIsrael.3 Accordngly, untl the outbreako the 2008 Gaza War, the AK Partygovernment mantaned the usual courseo urksh-Israel relatons.

It could thus be clamed that theAK Party kept ts commtment tothe relatonshp, whch resulted n a

spectacular growth n the volume o tradebetween the two countres. Whlst the

Under the AK Party rule, urkeyollowed a oregn polcy towards

the regon that emphaszed blateralrelatonshps that oten gnored nternalcharacterstcs o regmes, partcularlyhuman rghts ssues n Syra and Iran,emphaszng nstead strengthenng traderelatons. In ths sense t was realst wthregard to acceptance o exstng regmesas partners and lberal n the sense oplacng heavy emphass on economc

ntegraton. Te outbreak o the Arabdemocratc revolts n the wnter o 2010-2011 caused a dramatc rupture n thsregard by orcng a revson o oregnpolcy, accordng to whch urkeyemerged as the champon o democratctransormatons n North Arca. Tevctm o ths revson, however, was the

strategc partnershp wth the Syranregme that urkey had bult n thelast decade. Under the cloak o urkshdemocracy promoton n Syra les arealst mndset regardng the rse o anIran-led Sha bloc, whch urkey so arattempted to manage dplomatcally.

Also n ths regard, urkeys actvsm

regardng the Palestnan queston,leadng to a deep crss wth Israel, helpedtrm Irans regonal nfuence.

enson n the urksh-IsraelRelatons: AK Partys SecretAgenda?

Followng the establshment o theAK Party government ater the 2002

Followng the establshment othe AK Party government aterthe 2002 general electons,many nternal and external

poltcal observers were curousabout the nature o the newgovernments Israel polces.


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the development o an ant-Amercanand ant-Israel publc sentment n

urkey. US Presdent George W. Bushsdescrpton o the Israel Prme MnsterArel Sharon as a man o peaceprovoked strong reactons n the urkshpublc opnon.5

Te Amercan nvason o Iraq n2003 was the most mportant eventthat changed the strategc context o the

Mddle East, and n turn, aected thecourse o urksh-Israel relatons. Tshas undoubtedly let a deep mpact onthe urksh publc opnon contrbutng

to an already strongresentment aganst

Amercan oregnpolcy as well as Israel

whch was the onlycountry n the regonwhch supported thenvason. At the sametme, the Iraq war

dsrupted the tradtonal calculatonsregardng urksh oregn polcy wthnthe urksh poltcal system due to theNorthern Iraq problem. Te war helpedthe Iraq Kurds emerge as a new actorn the regon, and as a result, ensuredthat certan revsons n urkeys nternaland external poltcal decsons werenevtable. Wth the new geo-strategccalculatons that emerged on the Kurdshqueston, urkey establshed closesecurty relatons wth Syra and Iran.

Te urksh-Israel strategc allance,whch exsted partally to end the

trade volume between Israel and urkeywas 1.3 bllon US dollars n 2002, ths

had rsen to 3.38 bllon US dollars n2008. In 2009, urkeys exports to Israeltotalled 1.5 bllon US dollars, whereasts mports had reached 1.7 bllonUS dollars. More sgncantly, urkeysgned several deence contracts wthIsrael, ncludng the purchase o tenIsrael-made unmanned aeral vehcles,whch amounted to 2 bllon US dollars.However, t should also be mentonedthat the value o the trade relatons wthIsrael consttuted a very modest sumo one percent ourkeys total tradevolume. In contrastto ths, urkeys tradevolume wth the

22 Arab states hadreached at 30 bllonUS dollars durngthe ve years beore2008 and 40 bllonUS dollars n 2008. As or the urksh-Iranan trade volume, ths gure clmbedabove 10.5 bllon US dollars n 2010.4

However, the poltcal relatonsbetween the two countres have beenheavly hndered by a seres o actonsby Israel. Te oensve orchestratedby Israel aganst the reugee camp n

Jenn n Aprl 2002, had occurred onlymonths beore the AK Party governmenttook oce. Ts attack, whch had the

nature o a massacre, and the subsequentUS support, drectly contrbuted to

Te Amercan nvason o Iraqn 2003 was the most mportantevent that changed the strategc

context o the Mddle East, andn turn, aected the course ourksh-Israel relatons


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towards Hamass lason wth urkey norder to avod pushng Hamas to Irans

ranks.7

Ross Wlson, who was appontedas the US ambassador n Ankara to replacethe arch neo-conservatve Erc Edelman,and represented ths pragmatc and realstperspectve also placed the meetng on apostve ramework.8 Meanwhle, romthe perspectve o Hamas, buldng goodrelatons wth urkey was crtcal orearnng dplomatc legtmacy as wellas or reducng ts dependency on Iran.9Nevertheless, the pro-Israel crcles nthe Unted States crtczed the vst verystrongly, statng that Islamst AK Partyoregn polcy archtects were responsbleor the Hamas vst.10

Despte these moments o crss,

the AK Party government contnuedthe securty dmenson o relatonswth Israel. It employed these contactsto broker negotatons between Israeland Syra, the Arab state that urkeynow enjoyed close relatons wth. Inthe context o urkeys approach toregonal poltcs that placed dplomacyat the centre, Israels surprse attack onGaza between December 2008 and

January 2009 was receved wth strongcondemnaton rom Ankara. Accordngto the report ssued by the US-basedHuman Rghts Watch approxmately1500 Palestnans lost ther lves as aresult o ths attack n whch whtephosphorus bombs were dropped on

cvlan populaton.11 Te urkshgovernment was surprsed snce Israel

support Syra was provdng to the PKKat that tme, lost ts meanng wthn ths

new conjuncture.Israels assassnaton o the seventy-

year-old quadrplegc leader o Hamas,Shekh Ahmed Yassn, and AbdulazzRants who was subsequently chosen toreplace Yassn, provoked strong reactonsn the urksh publc opnon, especallythe grassroots o the AK Party. In the

ace o these events, Prme MnsterErdoan ncreased hs crtcsm towardsIsrael statng wth a clear voce thatthese targeted assassnatons amountedto state terrorsm.6 In February 2006,a Hamas commttee led by KhaledMashal vsted Ankara and met wthsome urksh authortes. Te urkshmeda and the man opposton partyCHP consdered ths as a great mstaken terms o relatons wth the West.

Whereas el Avv strongly crtczedths vst, nterestngly, Washngtonavoded makng any drect crtcsm andstated that what really mattered werethe messages that were gven to Hamas.Despte beng perceved and regarded nthe West as a volent Islamc movement,t was an undenable act that Hamasenjoyed a strong support base n whatwas accepted as the Palestnan terrtores,havng emerged as the wnner n thedemocratc electons that the UntedStates promoted. Ts posed a realdlemma. Seemngly, the realst fank n

the US admnstraton led by Secretaryo State Condoleezza Rce was warm


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concrete development that straned therelatons between urkey and Israel was

the excluson o Israel rom the mltarymanoeuvres, that were to be conductedwthn the ramework o NAO, nurkey n January 2009 as a reacton toIsraels Gaza attacks. Te manoeuvreswere postponed ndentely when theUSA and Italy also announced that theywould not be jonng as a reacton to

Israels excluson.12

In response, urkeyconducted ts rst jont manoeuvres wthSyra n Aprl 2009.13

Ater ths event Israel openly startedto have an atttude towards urkey. Asevdence that proves Israels reacton, n

January 2010 the Israel deputy Foregn

Mnster Danny Ayalon nvted theurksh ambassador to el Avv maknghm st n a lower char than hs ownand spoke aganst urkey, n Hebrew, toIsrael televson cameras n ront o theambassador. Although Israel explanedths atttude as a reacton to a urkshtelevson seres arng on the R called

Ayrlk, depctng the slaughter oPalestnan chldren by Israel solders, t

carred out the attack despte a verbalpeace promse made by Israel Prme

Mnster Ehud Olmert durng hs vst toAnkara just a couple o days pror to theoensve. In reacton, Ankara declaredthe end o ts medatory msson betweenSyra and Israel. Te government alsoensured that the chldren njured n theattacks would be brought to urkey andreceve treatment n urksh hosptals.

Prme Mnster Erdoan and hs wevsted those chldren n hosptals andollowed up on ther stuaton personally.Erdoan amlys close attenton tothe Palestnan crss has been closelyollowed by the urksh as well as the

Arab publc through satellte televsonnetworks. Te reacton by the urksh

publc to Israels dsproportonate use oorce n Gaza was massve. From Istanbulto Dyarbakr, demonstratons protestngthe Gaza attack were held n nearly everycty and town throughout the country.

Prme Mnster Erdoansabandonment o a panel durng the2009 Davos Summt, n whch he

was accompaned by Israel PresdentShmon Peres, Secretary General othe Unted Natons Ban K Moon andSecretary General o the Arab League

Amr Moussa, n condemnaton o theIsrael aggresson was the most dramatcevent dsplayng urkeys reacton.Durng the panel Erdoan qute

straghtorwardly told Peres You knowhow to kll chldren very well! A more

Israel navy commandoesattacked the largest shp o theconvoy, the Mav Marmara,kllng nne urksh people,

one o whom wth Amercanctzenshp.


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an act o pracy. Erdoan cut hs tourshort and returned to Ankara, sendng

hs Foregn Mnster to New York to callthe Unted Natons Securty Councl,on whch urkey was then a non-permanent member, to an emergencymeetng. Descrbng Israel aggresson asstate terrorsm, Erdoan expressed thatIsrael showed the entre world the levelst reached n kllng cvlans and thaturkeys enmty would be as thorough asts rendshp.15

Despte the negatve comments bysome crcles wthn the urksh meda,Erdoans severe crtcsms o Israeldd not receve a strong reacton romdomestc poltcal actors. One possblereason or ths mght be that despte

the governments strong crtcsms oIsrael, the deence contracts sgned wthths country largely contnued untlrecent days. When t s consdered thaturkey, ollowng a lberal economcunderstandng, permtted the nvestmento Israel rms n telecommuncatonand agrcultural sectors, t could besad that the AK Party ollows a coursethat does not represent the presumeddeologcal perceptons wth regardsto oregn trade. For example, thecontract provdng satellte pctures orthe urksh Ar Forces was sgned or141 mllon dollars wth the companesIsrael Aerospace and Elbt.16 From thsperspectve, the reason or the poltcal

tenson n urksh-Israel relatonsshould not be sought n the poltcal

stll had to ssue a wrtten apology as aresult o Ankaras strong response.

Prme Mnster Erdoan, n hsspeech at the openng o Rs Arabctelevson R et-urkye, descrbedIsrael as the real threat to the regon.urkeys statement that t would notstay slent n the ace o another Israelattack towards Gaza was an ndcatono the nal stage o the tough language

aganst Israel.14

In the meantme, urkeyncreasngly started to brng up thecontradcton o the nternatonal powersby comparng the nuclear weapons nIsraels possesson and the sanctonsaganst Iran. Israel dd not attend the2010 Nuclear Securty Summt as t wasarad that urkey mght brng up thssubject to the agenda. In return, IsraelForegn Mnster Avgdor Lebermanmade statements comparng Erdoan tothe Lbyan leader Muammar Gadda.

Among all these, the most dramatcdevelopment that permanently unsettledurksh-Israel blateral relatons was theattack conducted by Israel on the Gazaad fotlla comprsed heavly o urkshctzens. Israel navy commandoesattacked the largest shp o the convoy,the Mav Marmara, kllng nne urkshpeople, one o whom wth Amercanctzenshp. urkeys mmedate reactoncame rom the deputy Prme MnsterBlent Arn, whle Erdoan was nthe mdst o an ocal tour to several

Latn Amercan natons. In a cautouslanguage, Arn descrbed the attack as


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was perceved as an ndrect supportgven to the PKK.

Te urksh government presentedIsrael a lst o demands that ncludes anapology, compensaton to the relatveso the vctms and a lt o the embargoplaced on Gaza rom Israel as condtonsto releve tenson and normalze therelatons. Te secret meetng held n

July 2010 between the Foregn Mnster

Ahmet Davutolu and Israel Mnsteror Industry and rade Bnyamn Ben-Elezer produced no outcome, ether.By ncludng wthn ts demands Israelsltng o the embargo on Gaza was aclear message to Palestnan and the

Arab publc opnon that urkey saw thePalestnan ssue wthn the scope o tsnatonal nterests.

Te last epsode n the crss tookplace when the UN-commssonedPalmer-Urbe report on the 2010 Gazafotlla attack was leaked to the New Yorkmes.18 Accordng to the report, theIsrael-mposed blockage on Gaza wasacceptable and the Israels nterventonon the blockade area was justedrom an nternatonal legal perspectve.Furthermore, accordng to the report, theIsrael commandoes aced organzed andvolent resstance and were compelledto use orce as an act o sel-deense.

Yet the Israel orces use o excessveand unreasonable orce and the Israelmltarys treatment o passengers was

ound abusve. urksh member o thepanel, zdem Sanberk, wrote a separate

deology that AK party represents, butrather n the paradgm sht that took

place n the way the urksh poltcal eltenterprets Mddle Eastern geographyand the geo-poltcal envronment. Atths pont, the ncreasng power o IraqKurds and Iran, as a result o the newpower dstrbuton ater the Iraq war,reveals new developments that should beemphaszed.17

Te dsappontment caused byIsraels neutral stance durng the crssurkey experenced wth Syra overthe PKK n 1998 ncreasngly led the

percepton that Israel stands opposedto urkey wth regard to the Kurdshqueston. However, ths was precselywhy urkey had set up an allance wthIsrael. In 2003, the support o Israeland the pro-Israel groups n the UntedStates or the war aganst Iraq, a warwhch stood aganst urksh nterests,was noted by the urksh poltcal elte.

Israels urther support or the Kurdshautonomous structure n Northern Iraq

Te urksh governmentpresented Israel a lst odemands that ncludes anapology, compensaton to therelatves o the vctms and a lto the embargo placed on Gazarom Israel as condtons n toreleve tenson and normalzethe relatons.


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n the sland s addressed rst and thenaval boundares are demarcated wth

agreement, Greek Cyprots clam othe area as ts exclusve economc zonecarres no nternatonal legtmacy. Yet,unable to prevent the Greek gas drllng,urkey moved ahead to sgn ts ownunderwater exploraton agreement wthNorthern Cyprot government to carryout ts own drllng.22

Whle the ate o relatons dependson whether or not Israel meets theprmary urksh condton o apology,such an apology s hghly dcult to

come, partcularly ater the releaseo the Palmer-Urbe report. Also, ts hghly questonable whether a lateapology would restore the relatons backto ts normalcy. Accordng to Israelsources, the Israel government appearsto make the strategc decson not toapologze because apology may not

reverse the tde n relatons between thetwo countres. In case o an apology, as

note o objecton pontng out thatthe legalty o the blockade was tsel

challenged by the UN Human RghtsCouncl and the passengers onboardMav Marmara ressted to deendthemselves. Sanberk suggests that thereport omts the act that the Israeltroops opened re on the passengersrom the helcopters beore boardng oIsrael commanders and some passengerswere delberately shot dead by the Israelorces.19 Several nternatonal crtcso the report pont out that the panelthat prepared the report questonablyncluded as ts deputy char the ormerColumban Presdent Alvaro Urbe whowas crtczed or human rghts abusesdurng hs term n oce.20

In reacton to leakng o the report,urksh Foregn Mnster Davutolummedately announced a seres omeasures aganst Israel, ncludng mostsgncantly the expulson o the Israelambassador and the downgradng o tsdplomatc representaton to the level osecond secretary. He also announced thaturkey would take all necessary measuresto ensure the saety o sea navgaton nthe Medterranean Sea. urksh anger atIsrael was not only related to the lack oapology but also to the Israel cooperatonwth Greek Cyprot government nnatural gas drllng n waters south oCyprus. Te Greek Cyprot natural gasdrllng, beng carred out by exas-based

Noble, enjoys Israel ar orce cover.21urkey clams that, unless the dspute

urksh Foregn MnsterDavutolu mmedatelyannounced a seres o measuresaganst Israel, ncludng mostsgncantly the expulson othe Israel ambassador and the

downgradng o ts dplomatcrepresentaton to the level osecond secretary.


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derent poltcal actors. Ts s not onlya result o Irans exstng Islamc regme,

but also o urkeys hstorcally-rootedrvalry wth ths naton. Not allowngts relatonshp wth Iran to be shapedby perceptons, urkey carred out acautous, but close dplomatc relatonswth Iran n the last ten years. As regardsdealng wth the Kurdsh queston, acomplete allance was establshed neconomc and securty areas. Wth thsdplomacy-rst approach, urkey wasable to desecurtze ts relatons wthboth Iran and Syra.25

It s not possble to explan the polcyo the AK Party government towardsthese two countres wth the deologcaloundatons o the party leadershp.

Undoubtedly, Iran and Syra are twopowerul neghbours that cannot bedsregarded by urkey and the urkshbusness world. As a matter o act,ormer Presdent Ahmet Necdet Sezer,who was an ardent secularst, vsted Iranater Bush dened Iran as part o the axso evl n 2002 and sgned two treatesthat amed to strengthen economc andcultural cooperaton.26 Furthermore,Sezer conrmed the begnnng o anew era n relatons between the twocountres by attendng the uneralservce o the late Syran Presdent Haez

Al-Assad. Te AK Party leadershp verymuch embraced the same approach andurther developed a nearly problem-ree

relatonshp wth Iran at least on thesurace level. In essence, however, urkey

the Israel government suspects, theurksh government could present ths

as a vndcaton o ts polces, ganngmore ponts n the regon and gvng noassurances that t would stop ts verbal]attacks on Israel.23

Arguably the prncpal partyresponsble or ths crss n relatonsbetween the two countres s Israelpolces that completely dsregard

nternatonal law. In so dong Israelconsders tsel unaccountable relyngon the unquestoned exclusve support treceves rom the Unted States. urkeystrongly crtczes the US acquescence othe Israel aggresson n open seas and tsslence n the ace o murder o FurkanDoan, an Amercan ctzen, by Israel

commandoes at close dstance multpletmes. urkeys decson not to reducethe Israel dplomatc status ollowngthe fotlla ncdent, n whch urkshctzens were murdered, was met wthstrong negatve reacton by the domestcpublc opnon. Te publc mood aganstIsrael s so strong that even the PKK s

rked at any suggeston o recevng helprom Israel when such an dea was rasedby the Israel ocals.24

urkeys Deep Geo-poltcalRvalry wth Iran

urkeys percepton o Iran vared

n accordance wth the deologcaloundatons and the poltcal outlook o


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urkey elt t necessary to gan morepromnence n the Palestnan queston

and wn hearts and mnds o the Arabpublc. However, untl very recently,urkey dd not pursue a polcy thatconronts the Sha bloc and expressedthat an Iran ntegrated wthn the systems very mportant or regonal peace andstablty. Te man logc n ths calculatonwas that Iran was n a partcularly crtcalposton wth regard to Iraqs stabltywth mplcatons or the Kurdsh

queston. In thsramework, urkeyollowed a pragmatcand ntegratonstpolcy towards Iranas derent rom theaxs o the Arab worldand that o Israel andthe Unted States.urkey s aware thatconrontng Iranwll not stop t romacqurng nuclear

weapons, but on the contrary, urtheraccelerate ths process. urkey grants

Iran ts rght to nuclear energy as a resulto ts ncreasng nfuence and decreasngnatural resources and natural rghtsarsng rom nternatonal law. ogetherwth Brazl, urkey has played an actverole n overcomng Irans nuclear crss bymeans o a uranum swap scheme. Alongwth Brazl, t was the only country to

vote no on the sanctons brought aganstIran n the UN Securty Councl.

remaned cautous regardng Iran andts emergence as a regonal hegemon

ollowng the Iraq War o 2003.Undoubtedly, unlke others n the

regon, urkey does not see Iran as anexstental securty threat, but as a rvaln terms o mpact and nfuence, asgncant trade partner and natural gassupply source wthout whch urkeyhad to completely rely on Russa, and

an operatonal ally aganst the PKKterrorsm. Nevertheless, polcy-makersn Ankara are deeply concerned aboutthe prooundlyncreased power oIran n the regonalgeopoltcal structurethat emerged aterthe Iraq War. In ths

new envronment, ts necessary to statethat urkeys two

Arab neghbours,Iraq and Syra, arenow wthn Iranssphere o nfuence, whch s anunprecedented development n the entre

hstory o urksh-Iranan competton.Due to ths chan o allance, Iran haseectvely become a Medterraneanpower and many Arab leaders ncludngthe Jordanan Kng Abdullah II spoke oan emergng Sha crescent, encapsulatngthe area rom Bahran to Lebanon, andto the ear o many Sunn Arab regmes,mght turn nto a Sha ull moon.27 For

ths reason, n order to decrease Iransmpact n the Mddle East n general,

urkey does not see Iran as anexstental securty threat, butas a rval n terms o mpact andnfuence, a sgncant tradepartner and natural gas supplysource wthout whch urkeyhad to completely rely onRussa, and an operatonal allyaganst the PKK terrorsm.


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target Malatya n case o an Israel attackaganst ts nuclear acltes.29 Most lkely

n response to such threats, urkey wouldlke to strengthen ts mssle deencecapabltes by purchasng Patrot PAC-3 ant-mssle batteres rom the UntedStates.30

Te Iranan Sphere oInfuence n the Arab World

Syra, Iraq and Lebanon are threecrtcally mportant countres orurkey. urkey has a hstorcally-rootederce rvalry wth Iran n ths regon.However, a sot geopoltcal compettons currently on the agenda. Wth theIraq war completng the puzzle by

brngng Sha elements to power, Irans now able to reach the Medterraneanthanks to ts sphere o nfuence overthree countres. In addton, Iranwth Syra and Iraq completely closesurkeys geographc reach to the rest othe regon, wth a combned border onearly 1800 klometres. Tese countres

also are o crtcal mportance to urkshsecurty nterests due to the Kurdshqueston. As a result o the Iraq war, anautonomous poltcal Kurdsh presenceemerged, whch urkey has to takento consderaton rom poltcal andeconomc aspects. In the meantme,both Iran and Syra have not completely

abandoned ther nterest n usng thePKK card aganst urkey.

It was also wth ths strategcmndset that the AK Party government

was amongst the rst governmentsto congratulate the Iranan PresdentMahmoud Ahmednejad ater hsdsputed 2009 presdental electonvctory. Although ths atttude wassharply crtcsed by Iranan lberals,urkey was not convnced by anyevdence that ndcates raud n theelectons and dd not make t a part o tspolcy to ntervene n domestc poltcso Iran wth the expectaton, o course,that Iran adhered to the same prncple.Interestngly, the Iraq and Aghangovernments almost competed wtheach other to congratulate Ahmednejaddespte beng under the nvason o

Amercan troops.28

As wll be dscussed n the ollowngsecton, urkeys dplomatcally cordalrelatonshp towards the Sha bloc hasdramatcally changed ater the Arabpopular revolts, especally ater theyencapsulated Syra. Iran clearly sees Syraas an ndspensable part o ts sphere onfuence n the regon and ater urkeybegan to pressure Syran regme to berespectul o the democratc demands ots people, majorty o whom are Sunns,Iranan mltary crcles have drectedaganst urkey some harsh statements.It was n ths context that Ankaraaccepted to deploy NAO early warnngsystem n the southeastern provnce. In

reacton, a senor commander n IransRevolutonary Guard stated that t wll


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In the course o next ew years,urksh-Syran relatons were mproved

to the pont that the two states declaredmutual removal o vsa requrement n2009. As o 2010, cvlan human tracbetween the two countres has reached100 thousand people per month. Whleonly twenty thousand urksh ctzensvsted Syra n 1990, ths numberreached a record o one mllon.32

In parallel, urksh governmentmoved to wave vsa requrements orLebanese and Jordanan ctzens vstngurkey. In addton, urkey led n theestablshment o a ree trade zone tonclude Syra, Lebanon and Jordancreatng a market o 100 mllon people.In July 2010, the Close Neghbours

Economc and rade AssocatonCouncl (CNEAC) to nclude thesame countres was created to research thepossblty o cooperaton and ntegratonn derent economc sectors. urkeys3 bllon dollars worth o trade wthSyra, Lebanon and Jordan consttutedaround ten per cent o urkeys total

trade volume wth the Arab world, arexceedng ts trade level wth Israel worth2.5 bllon US dollars.33

Syra was oten cted as the mostsuccessul dplomatc undertakng o

the AK Party government n the last ewyears as a realzaton o zero problemwth neghbours deal. Although thenormalzaton o urksh-Syra relatonsstarted beore the AK Party government,the contrbuton o the AK Partygovernment n the development o theserelatons was ndsputable.

Te death o Haz al-Assad whopursued ant-urksh polces andsupported terrorsm meant the end oanother serous obstacle or the bettermento urksh-Syran relatonshp. In protestor urkeys ambtous Southeastern

Anatola Project (GAP), hydroelectrcproject whch allegedly decreased

quantty o Euphrates water fowng ntoSyra, Haz Al-Assad developed a polcyo supportng PKK terrorsm and movedto develop an allance wth Greece. Inresponse, urkey supported Israel n anattempt to create a bloc. In 1998, urkeythreatened Syra wth a mltary oensve t dd not close the PKK camps n Syraand hand over leaders o the PKK. Syracompled wth these demands easng theway to start dplomatc and economcrelatons between the two countres. Teprospects o good relatons were urthermproved when Beshar al-Assad who wasregarded as more pragmatc and lberalreplaced hs ather n 2000 ollownghs death. Meanwhle urkey supported

Beshar durng hs deep amly powerstruggle wth hs uncle, Raat al-Assad.31

In March 2011, publc revoltssmlar to the ones that toppledregmes n unsa, Egypt andLbya soon encapsulated Syra,

leadng to massve uprsng nSyra.


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n Damascus burnng the urksh fag.Meanwhle, qute nterestngly, Israel s

ambvalent n ts stance regardng the ateo Assad despte hs support to Hezbollahand Hamas. For Israels, t s easer todeal wth the regme n Damascus sncet represents a coherent state wth morerelable leadershp.35 One can nterpretths lne as an Israel preerence to see thecontnuaton o Syras mnorty regmeto a new democratc poltcal system

n whch pro-Islamc partes ascend topower as they dd elsewhere n the regon.

Te present tenson n urksh-Syran relatons spells the end o urkshdplomatc handlng o Iranan sphereo nfuence, as well urkeys ollownga non-conventonal oregn polcy n theregon dstancng tsel rom the postono the West. Whle urksh-Israel tensons a clear ndcaton that Ankara doesnot necessarly synchronze ts oregnpolcy wth that o Washngton, t s alsonterestng that the same tenson doesnot create an obstacle or an unusuallywarm relatonshp between the AK Partygovernment and Obama admnstraton.

Ironcally, Iraq Prme MnsterNour al-Malk who hmsel came topower ollowng Iraq war o 2003 vocessupport to Assad.36 Ts was a predctableoutcome o the Iraq war, n addton tocreatng sutable condtons or ade actondependence to Northern Iraq Kurdshgroups resultng n serous mplcatons

or ts ght wth the PKK terrorsm. Wththe comng to power o Shte majorty

Unortunately, the honeymoon nurksh-Syran relatons was not to last

long. In March 2011, publc revoltssmlar to the ones that toppled regmesn unsa, Egypt and Lbya soonencapsulated Syra, leadng to massveuprsng. Te Syran Baath Party regmen power snce 1963 reacted to the eventswth volence despte attempts by urkeyto convnce al-Assad to lead a peaceultransormaton. Accordng to a reportpublshed by the Unted Natons, Syranregme utlzed brutalty aganst cvlans,ncludng torture and rape o under-agedchldren.34

Te 22-member Arab Leaguetook the ntatve to pressure Syrato end ts volence and when t aled

n these attempts expelled t romthe organzaton. In August, the UNSecurty Councl adopted a statementcondemnng Syras volence; yet, dueto Russan and Chnese objectons, thas aled to pass a resoluton nvolvngeconomc measures aganst Syra.urkey ully cooperates wth the ArabLeague, the Unted States and Europe nmposng sanctons aganst Syra whlethe Baath regme s gven rm supportby Russa, Chna, Iran and Hezbollah.In response to urksh poston, Syracancelled ts ree trade agreement wthurkey promptng the latter to mpose30 per cent customs duty on productsenterng rom Syra. In addton,

provokng Ankaras strong protest, a pro-Assad mob attacked the urksh embassy


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snce they ncreasngly recognze thatther solaton cannot be ended by Israel.

In act, n the realm o economcs,Northern Iraq s a lucratve market orurksh companes, partcularly n tradeand constructon sectors. As a result oths nteracton, urkeys export to Iraq,much o whch s to Northern Iraq,grew rom around 900 mllon dollarsn 2003 to 6 bllon dollars n 2009. Inthe meantme, urksh NGOs nvested

n educaton rom prmary schools tounverstes. Te ate o ths relatonshp,however, rests on the relatonshpbetween the Northern Iraq authortyand the PKK, as well as on the success ourksh democratzaton as regards to tsown Kurdsh queston.

urkey seeks to play an actve rolen Lebanon to help medate sectarandvsons counterng Iranan eorts togan nfuence. In November 2010,Prme Mnster Erdoan vstedLebanon shortly ater Iranan Presdent

Ahmednejads vst to the same countryn October o the same year and wasenthusastcally receved by the Sunn-

led government.

Lebanese poltcs s deeply dvdedbetween the March 14 allance led bySaad Harr who s supported by Saud

Araba and the Unted States, and theMarch 8 allance led by Hezbollah andsupported by Syra and Iran. In 2008, aclash between Hezbollah and ollowers

o then Prme Mnster Saad Harrover hs decson to close a Hezbollah

n Iraq, Iran has closed the geographcgap between tsel and ts Syran ally,

reachng to the Medterranean Sea.Despte all these negatve

developments, urkey avoded moves thatwould threaten stablty n Iraq. On thecontrary, t tred to provde ntegraton oall partes, most sgncantly Sunn Arabgroups by ensurng ther nvolvement nIraq natonal poltcs and 2005 general

electons.Undoubtedly, havng a clear majorty

n the populaton, the Shte Arab partesdomnate any electon results, leadngto the outcome o Iranan nfuence nIraq poltcs. Recognzng ths realty,urkey has attempted to buld tes wththe Shte Arabs. In March 2011, Prme

Mnster Erdoan became the rst Sunnleader to have vsted the mausoleum oAl, son-n-law o Prophet Muhammadn Naja. Te Prme Mnster, durngthe same vst, organsed a snceredscusson regardng the uture o Iraqwth the most promnent Sha leader nIraq, Ayatollah Sstan, who s regardedas the most nfuental gure n Iraqpoltcs. Te act that Sstan s Persanand o Iranan ctzenshp, however,s an ndcator o the depth o Iranshstorcally-rooted nfuence n thecountry. In ths regard, urkey does nothave any chance to compete wth Iranover ganng popularty o the countrysSha Arab populaton. Recognton o

ths act n the new realst context wllorce urkey to approach Iraq Kurds,


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central poston n Mddle East poltcsand ultmately ncreases ts rvalry wth

Iran. In ths regard, Lebanese crssshows shtng balance o power n theregon where, as Anthony Shadd notes,urkey has proved the most dynamc,projectng an ncreasngly assertve andndependent oregn polcy n an Arabworld beret o any country that matchests stature.37

Showng the volatle nature oLebanese poltcs, the Lebanese poltcaldvson urther ncreased ollowng theevents n Syra. Hezbollah rmly supportsthe Syran regme causng rcton nthe March 8 coalton, and the March14 coalton backs the opposton.38 Inths new context, as urkey has clearlydstanced tsel rom Syra and takenan actve poston to orce a democratctransormaton n ts neghbour, t wllnot be able to mantan ts clamed roleas a neutral arbter n Lebanese poltcs.

Te Sunn Arab Bloc

Bahran and Saud Araba perceveIran as an exstental threat rom thertradtonal oregn polcy perspectvesdue to ther own Sha populatons,whle the Unted Arab Emrates has atroublesome relatonshp wth ehrandue to Iranan controlled group o slandsn the Gul. One can add to ths groupEgypt, the most populous Arab naton

that s also dsturbed by Irans ncreasngpower n the Mddle East and the

telecommuncatons aclty broke outand let 80 people dead. Qatar then

brokered a deal that ended the confct.Yet the tenson has returned, when a UN-backed Specal rbunal or Lebanonnvestgatng the 2005 assassnaton oLebanons ormer Prme Mnster RakHarr ndcted our senor Hezbollahmembers o nvolvement n the ncdent.Eleven Hezbollah-led oppostonmnsters n the coalton government

resgned n protest o Prme MnsterHarrs reusal to reject the rbunal,causng ts collapse n January 2011.

In all o these events, urkey assumedan actve dplomatc stance especallythrough regular trlateral summtmeetngs wth Syra and Qatar to resolvethe crss. In the absence o Saud Arabaand Egypt as large Arab powers to play aneectve role n regonal poltcs, urkeyenlsted the support o Qatar, a tny butdplomatcally nfuental Gul state.

Te crss o government was solvedwhen March 8 coalton managed toconvnce Sunn poltcan Najeb Mkatto become the Prme Mnster and thus

orm the government. Stll, urkeysactve dplomacy n Lebanon ndcates ts

Showng the volatle nature oLebanese poltcs, the Lebanesepoltcal dvson urther

ncreased ollowng the eventsn Syra.


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or the regme change n Egypt andexpressed ther apprecaton or Egypts

eorts towards achevng Palestnanreconclaton. Both countres haveshared concerns regardng Israel andIran. Te Freedom and Justce Party,establshed by the Muslm Brotherhood,emerged as the strongest n the recentelectons and wll be playng anmportant part n Egypts uture. Incontrast to ts man compettor, the

Sala al-Nour party, whch s closer toSaud Araban nterpretaton o Islam,Freedom and Justce Party sees the

AK Party as a model or the countrysdemocratc transormaton.

Saud Araba s at some dstance romurksh nterpretaton o democracy andts compatblty wth Islam. Te strctnterpretaton o Wahhabsm, Saudocal teachng o Islam, regards Shan extreme hostlty terms. In Saudperceptons, Iran s an exstental threatmanly because o the Sha mnortywhch consttutes approxmately 10-15% o ts populaton. What s morecrtcal s that ths populaton lves n the

ol rch Gul area o the Kngdom. SaudAraba takes the most actve postonas regards to the expanson o Iranansphere o nfuence. Te latest ndcatoro ths was Saud Arabas sendng troopsto help repress the publc uprsng nBahran, where more than sxty per cento the populaton adhere to the Sha sect.

Te Sauds expect urkey to employa tougher stance on Iran and are

Medterranean regon. Although Egyptmantaned a hostle relatonshp wth

Iran durng the Mubarak era, ater thetopplng o Mubarak regme, t showedsome gestures to Iran, allowng Irananwarshps to pass through the Suez Canal.Israel expressed concerns about theprospects o relatons between the twocountres, whch have not had dplomatcrelatons snce 1979.39 Nevertheless, asthe 2011 parlamentary electons clearlydemonstrated, pro-Islamc partes wllhave the most domnant poston nthe uture o Egyptan poltcal systemand, n ths regard, one can expect thatsenstvty about Irans emergng regonalhegemony would be mantaned nEgyptan oregn polcy.

Egyptan and Iranan nterestsultmately clash, snce the ormer desresto emerge as the leader o the Arabworld, whch s a natural poston or acountry o ts sze and nfuence. As amatter o act, the el-Fatah and Hamasreconclaton, whch urkey was notable to acheve despte all ts eorts, hasbecome possble under the medaton oEgypt. urkeys nterests le n turnngEgypt, whch attaned a democratcsystem, not nto a rval but a partner. Inths sense, or urkey, Egypt can emergeas a sgncant geostrategc partner.

Accordng to Davutolu, a partnershpbetween urkey and Egypt could createa new, democratc axs o power.40 As

a matter o act, urksh leaders vocedthe strongest nternatonal support


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was qute unhappy wth urkeys sotdplomatc approach. Ts does not

mean, however, that urkey sdes wththe Saud-led allance o monarches.Due to derences n nterpretaton orelgon, Sauds are not very happy wththe prospect o a urkey-rendly MuslmBrotherhood-controlled chan o regmesrom unsa to Egypt and mostly lkelyexpandng to Syra. Furthermore, there

s a concern that the expanson o ademocratzaton wave may eventuallyencapsulate the Kngdom tsel. It vocessupport to democratzaton wave n theMddle East and clearly demands endngall unelected repressve dctatorshps.In hs message sent to the Allance oCvlzatons orum held n Qatar nDecember 2011 urksh Prme MnsterErdoan made a statement that targetsregmes beyond Syra: We have to endblood and tears n the Mddle East. Aslong as dctatorshps that are ntoleranto all knds o opposng vews andmovements contnue to exst, we cannothave peace o mnd and stablty.43

dsturbed by urkeys more dplomatcapproach towards Iran on the nuclear

energy ssue. Whle sharng a concernabout the rse o Iranan power n theregon, urkey has so ar persstentlyreused to take part n a Saud-led Sunnallance. As mentoned above, urkeyaccepts the exstence o Sha populatonsas a realty and has sought tes wth theSha communty wth Prme MnsterErdoan payng symbolcally sgncantvsts to Sha relgous stes n Iraq andholdng meetngs wth leaders o theSha communty. urkey ssued warnngsaganst Iran and Saud Araba to act wthrestrant n ther clash over Bahranand opposed Saud ntererence n thesland.41 Foregn Mnster Davutoluheld many dscussons over the phone

wth numerous leaders ncludng theBahran Prnce Salman bn Hamadbn Isa al-Khala n order to ease thetenson. urksh ocals hosted theSaud Foregn Mnster Prnce Saud al-Fasal to dscuss the topc. Te urkshForegn Mnstry ssued a statementnotng that Saud orces entrance to

Bahran was a result Bahrans rght tosoveregnty, but nevertheless stated thatthe proportonalty o the orce usedaganst the protestors ncreased ater thsevent.42

Untl the recent hardenng ourksh poston vs--vs the Iran-ledSha bloc and urkeys support to the

Arab League n counterng the Syranregme, the Saud-led Gul allance

urkey accepts the exstenceo Sha populatons as a realtyand has sought tes wth theSha communty wth PrmeMnster Erdoan payngsymbolcally sgncant vsts toSha relgous stes n Iraq and

holdng meetngs wth leaderso the Sha communty.


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engaged n comprehensve relatons wthauthortaran unelected Arab regmes,

ncludng Syra and Saud Araba.

Democratc uprsngs n the Arabworld s a moment o crss or urkey atleast n the sense o economc relatons.

As a tradng naton short o major energyresources, the man prorty o urkeys to expand ts exports to the MddleEast. Between 2002-2010, the perodn whch AK Party was n power, urkeymanaged to ncrease ts volume o tradewth the Arab world ve-old.

Te oregn trade lobby n urkeywas suspcous o the Arab democratcrevolts and saw t as oregn-nspreddsturbances keen on destroyng urkeyseconomc expanson. Accordng tocalculatons ed by these crcles, thedamage o the Arab sprng or theurksh economy s estmated to standat 384 mllon US dollars. Accordngto the urksh Exporters Assembly, thebggest part o the loss n exports was nLbya. Whle urkey has exports worth

146.6 mllon dollars n January 2011,ths gure ell to 23.5 mllon dollars n

urkeys lberal and pro-democracydscourse s ollowed wth suspcon

by authortaran Sunn Gul regmeswho, beng unable to counter Irananambtons on ther own, rely on thesupport o the West and even Israel.

Accordng to the mes o the UntedKngdom, n the event o an Irananattack, Saud Araba wll open tsar space to Israel, a speculaton thatSaud regme has vehemently dened.44

Interestngly, such overtures do notescape rom the attenton o pro-Israelcrcles. Martn Indyk, an mportantname o the Amercan Jewsh lobby asthe ounder o the Washngton Insttuteor Near East Polcy (WINEP) and thedrector o Saban Centre or Mddle EastPolcy at the Brookngs Insttute, s o the

opnon that Israel ought to resolve tsPalestnan queston somehow and orman allance wth the Sunn Arabs n orderto counter Irans ncreasng nfuence nthe regon.45

Concludng Remarks:urkeys Moment n the NewMddle East

Te wave o democratzaton whchgrasped all Mddle Eastern natonsollowng the overthrow o regmes nunsa, Egypt and Lbya s a momento crss as well as opportunty orurksh oregn polcy. urkey naturally

chose to pursue ts oregn polcy wthexstng governments and n ths respect

Te wave o democratzatonwhch grasped all MddleEastern natons ollowng theoverthrow o regmes n unsa,Egypt and Lbya s a moment ocrss as well as opportunty orurksh oregn polcy.


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asprng regonal powers, urkey doesnot enjoy the unquestoned support o

a superpower, or a deeply-rooted geo-cultural sphere o nfuence, based onsectaran soldarty. It does not speak thelanguage o the regon, and, as a secularsystem, does not champon a relgousdeology that would help spread tsnfuence. Hstory oers advantages aswell as dsadvantages or urkey when tapproaches the regon. Te only power

that wll pave the way or urksh sphereo nfuence n the regon wll be ts owndemocratc and economc appeal. In thssense, urkeys lberal oregn polcy sclearly based on Realpoltkcalculatonso natonal nterest rather than anydealst dreams. Te poltcal system nwhch Islam, democracy, and secularsm

coexst and result n a peaceul socetyexperencng stablty and an economcboom n the mddle o a global nancalcrss s urkeys greatest export asset.It or ths reason that, accordng to allpublc opnon polls, Prme MnsterErdoan emerges as the most popularleader n the entre regon.

March. Te all n exports was recordedat 24 percent or Egypt and Yemen, and

at 20 percent or unsa.46

Such gures,however, dscard the long term prospectsn whch democracy n the regon leadsto major economc boom or the entreregon, boostng urkeys trade volume.

However t s clear that urkeyslberal democratc system and economcsuccess, coupled wth the stance t tookaganst Israel, creates an mportantappeal n the Arab world. As IbrahmKaln, che advsor to urksh PrmeMnster, ponts out, a democratc andprosperous Arab world wll renorceurkeys power n the regon.47

Democracy s the greatest oregnpolcy asset and source o sot poweror urkey n the regon. Unlke other

Democracy s the greatestoregn polcy asset and source

o sot power or urkey n theregon.


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Endnotes

1 Graham E. Fuller, New urkish Republic: urkey As a Pivotal State in the Muslim World, Washington,DC, United States Institute o Peace Press, 2008, p.72.

2 Osmanisches Comeback, Der Spiegel, 30 May 2009. Also see Der Spiegel interview with ForeignMinister Ahmet Davutolu, Wir Wollen Ordnung, Der Spiegel, 22 June 2009.

3 urkish Leader Stresses Strong ies with Israel in Meeting with U.S. Jews, at http://www.theturkishtimes.com/archive/03/0103/_ties.html [Last visited 12 February 2006].

4 DEIK, Iran Country Report, February 2010.

5 Bush: Sharon A Man O Peace, Washington Post, 19 April 2002.

6 ahin Alpay, Te Complexities o urkeys Relationship with Israel, odays Zaman, 5 January 2009.

7 Rice Praises urkeys Very Helpul Eorts to End Gaza Crisis, Haaretz, 6 July 2006.

8 Ambassador Ross Wilson Interview with Kanal 7, at http://turkey.usembassy.gov/amb_022806.html[Last visited 29 July 2009].

9 David Bedein, Hamas Looks to Oset Dependency on Iran, Te Philadelphia Bulletin, 7 May 2009.

10 Altndan O kt, Hrriyet, 18 February 2006.

11 Rain o Fire, Israels Unlawul Use o White Phosphorus in Gaza, at http://www.hrw.org/sites/deault/iles/reports/iopt0309webwcover.pd, [Last visited 29 July 2009].

12 urkey Conirms It Barred Israel rom Military Exercise Because o Gaza War, Guardian, 12 October2009. Also see aban Karda, Postponed Military Exercise ests urkish-Israeli Cooperation, EurasiaDaily Monitor(Te Jamestown Foundation), Vol. 6, 15 November 2009.

13 urkish Military Launches Joint Exercise with Syria on Shared Border,Associated Press, 27 April2009.

14 6 April 2009.

15 No One Should est urkeys Patience, PM Erdoan Warns, odays Zaman, 2 June 2010.

16 Elbit, IAI awarded $141m Deal with urkey, Ynet, 26 December 2008.

17 For instance, see F. Stephen Larrabee, urkey Rediscovers the Middle East, Foreign Afairs, Vol. 86,No.4 (July/August 2007), p. 4.

18 Report Finds Naval Blockade by Israel Legal but Faults Raid, New York imes, 1 September 2011.

19 Ozdem Sanberk, Behind the Palmer ReportAnalysis, EurasiaReview, 24 October 2011.

20 Richard Falk, Disappointment at the United Nations: Te Failure o the Palmer Report, Insighturkey, Vol. 13, No. 4 (2011).

21 Cyprus: Israeli Planes Patrol Mediterranean, Strator, 17 October 2011.

22 urkey Natural Gas Search Stokes ensions with Cyprus, Guardian, 2 October 2011.

23 Oded Eran, Israel: Quo Vadis, urkey? Insight urkey, Vol. 13, No. 4 (2011), p. 37.

24 Ater urkey, PKK now also Demanding Apology rom Israel, Haaretz, 13 September 2011.


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25 Blent Aras and Rabia K. Polat, From Confict to Cooperation: De-Securitization o urkeysRelations with Syria and Iran, Security Dialogue, Vol. 39, No.5 (2008), pp.495-515.

26 urkish President Calls or Stronger ies with Iran, Te Daily Star, 19 June 2002.

27 Ian Black, Fear o a Shia Full Moon, Guardian, 26 January 2011.

28 World Leaders React Cautiously to Iranian Elections, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, 5 June 2009.

29 Iran Treatens to Hit urkey i US, Israel Attack, Sundays Zaman, 27 November 2011.

30 US to Sell urkey Patriot Missiles in $7.8 Billion Deal, Sundays Zaman, 14 September 2009.

31 Ankara Rat Dinledi ama Beara Destek Verdi, Hrriyet, 18 June 2000.

32 Fadi Hakura, Interviewed by Kari Lipschutz, urkeys rade with Arab Neighbours, World PoliticsReview, 28 June 2010.

33 Ibid.

34 U.N. Report Documents Syrias Crimes against Protesters, Washington Post, 28 November 2011.

35 Itamar Rabinovich, Israels Dilemma in Damascus: Jerusalems View on the Syrian Uprising, ForeignAfairs, 10 April 2011, at http://www.oreignaairs.com/articles/67721/itamar-rabinovich/israels-dilemma-in-damascus?page=show. [Last visited 10 December 2011].

36 Iraqi Leader Backs Syria, With a Nudge From Iran, New York imes, 12 August 2011.

37 Anthony Shadid, Lebanon Shows Sht o Infuence n Mdeast, New York mes, 18 January 2011.

38 Syrian Uprising Spills Over Into Lebanons Raucous Political Scene, New York imes, 30 November

2011.

39 In Shit, Egypt Warms to Iran and Hamas, Israels Foes, New York imes, 28 April 2011.

40 Syria and the Unolding Hegemonic Game,Al Jazeera, 25 November 2011.

41 Cool it, urkey ells Iran and Saudi Arabia, Hrriyet Daily News, 16 March 2011.

42 urkey Steps up Diplomacy to Contain Bahrain Crisis, odays Zaman, 18 March 2011.

43 Diktatrlerle Bar Gelmez, Yeni aak, 12 December 2011.

44 Saudi Arabia Gives Israel Clear Skies to Attack Iranian Nuclear Sites, Te imes, 12 June 2010.

45 Chemi Shalev, Could Tis War Produce a Sunni-Israeli Alliance? Haaretz, 28 August 2006.46 Regonal urmol Costs urkey $384 Mllon n rade Losses, Hrryet Daly News, 10 Aprl 2011.

47 brahim Kaln, urkey and the Arab Spring, Project Syndicate, at http://www.project-syndcate.org/commentary/kaln2/Englsh [Last visited 23 May 2011].