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File:14.Harcourt(final)
Createdon:1/27/200611:03AM
LastPrinted:1/31/20062:35PM
2006]
BrokenWindows:NewEvidence
311
FIGURE3
MTOTreatmentEffectsonLifetimeArrests
byAge
andGenderMales
0.511.5210
20
30
40
50
Age
Controls
Experimental
Section8-only
D:OtherCrimes,MTOMales
LifetimeArrests,OtherCrimes
0.3.6.9
LifetimeArrests,PropertyCrimes
10
20
30
40
50
Age
Controls
Ex
perimental
Section8-only
C:PropertyCrime,MTOMale
s
0.3.6.9
LifetimeArrests,ViolentCrimes
10
20
30
40
50
Age
Controls
Experimental
Section8-only
B:ViolentCrime,MTOMales
01234
LifetimeArrests,AllCrimes
10
20
30
40
50
Age
Controls
Ex
perimental
Section8-only
A:AllCrimes,MTOMales
File:14.Harcourt(final)
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[73:271
FIGURE3(continued)
MTOTreatmentEffectsonLifetime
ArrestsbyAgeandGenderFemale
s
Additionalevidencetosuggestthatmovingto
alessdisorderly,
lessdisadvantagedcommunitydoesnotonnetreducecriminalbehav-
iorcomesfromtheself-reportedsurveydatacollec
tedforprogram
p
articipants.Surveydataonyouthrevealnostatisticallysignificant
d
ifferencesacrossgroups(foreithermalesorfemales
)inself-reported
arrestsordelinquency,andanincreaseinself-reported
problembehav-
io
rsamongmalesintheExperimentalcomparedtotheControlgroup.
92
92
SeeKling,Ludwig,andKatz,128QJEconat11617(citedinn
ote19).Comparingthe
controlgroupsmeanself-reportedarrestratewithwhatisimpliedbythe
administrativerecords
suggestthattheformeraresusceptibletoconsiderableunderreporting.W
hetherthisisalsotrue
fo
rthebehaviorproblemsindex,whichrevealsapositiveExperimental-Controldifferencefor
m
aleyouth,isnotclear.Ofcourse,misreportingwouldhavetobesystem
aticallydifferentacross
groupsinordertoaffecttheestimateforacross-groupdifferencesinbeha
viorproblems.
0.1.2.3.4.5
LifetimeArrests,OtherCrimes
10
20
30
40
50
Age
Controls
Experimental
Section8-o
nly
H:OtherCrim
es,MTOFemales
0.1.2.3.4.510
20
30
40
50
Age
Controls
Experimental
Section8-only
G:PropertyCrime,MTOFemales
LifetimeArrests,PropertyCrimes
0.1.2.3.4.5
LifetimeArrests,ViolentCrimes
10
20
30
40
50
Age
Controls
Experimental
Section8-o
nly
F:ViolentCrim
e,MTOFemales
0.4.81.21.6
LifetimeArrests,AllCrimes
10
20
30
40
50
Age
Controls
Experimental
Section8-only
E:AllCrimes,MTOFemales
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File:14.Harcourt(final)
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2006]
BrokenWindows:NewEvidence
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AP
PENDIXTABLE1
AverageMisdemeanorArrestsperPrecinct,SelectedYears
1989
1993
1998
Harcourt-
Ludwigdataset
1,754
1,795
3,034
Kelling-Sousa
dataset
1,811
1,779
3,034
Notes:TheKelling-Sousafiguresare
takenfromTable2oftheirManhattanInstitutereport.
Thesefiguresaremeannumberofmisdemeanorarrestsperprecinct,calculatedwithoutweight-
ingbyprecinctpopulation.
Finally,whileKSdoesnotreportthemeanviolentcrimeratefor
theirdatasetovertheentire19891998period(thesumofmurder,
rape,robbery,andfelonious
assault),theirFigure1Areportsthetotal
numberofviolentcrimesforNewYorkCityasawholebyyear.Inour
datasetthesefiguresequal144,375in1989,131,310in1993,97,170in
1995,and70,725in1998.Ea
chofthesenumbers,andtheoveralltrend
showninthetoppanelofourAppendixFigure1,matchcloselythe
numbersrepresentedintheirFigure1A.
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APPENDIXFIGURE1
ViolentCrimeCountsinNewYorkCityby
Year,
Harcourt-LudwigDataset
050,000100,000150,000200,000250,000
1990
1995
2000
year
ViolentCrime
Misdemea
norArrests