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File:14.Harcourt(final)

Createdon:1/27/200611:03AM

LastPrinted:1/31/20062:35PM

2006]

BrokenWindows:NewEvidence

311

FIGURE3

MTOTreatmentEffectsonLifetimeArrests

byAge

andGenderMales

0.511.5210

20

30

40

50

Age

Controls

Experimental

Section8-only

D:OtherCrimes,MTOMales

LifetimeArrests,OtherCrimes

0.3.6.9

LifetimeArrests,PropertyCrimes

10

20

30

40

50

Age

Controls

Ex

perimental

Section8-only

C:PropertyCrime,MTOMale

s

0.3.6.9

LifetimeArrests,ViolentCrimes

10

20

30

40

50

Age

Controls

Experimental

Section8-only

B:ViolentCrime,MTOMales

01234

LifetimeArrests,AllCrimes

10

20

30

40

50

Age

Controls

Ex

perimental

Section8-only

A:AllCrimes,MTOMales




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[73:271

FIGURE3(continued)

MTOTreatmentEffectsonLifetime

ArrestsbyAgeandGenderFemale

s

Additionalevidencetosuggestthatmovingto

alessdisorderly,

lessdisadvantagedcommunitydoesnotonnetreducecriminalbehav-

iorcomesfromtheself-reportedsurveydatacollec

tedforprogram

p

articipants.Surveydataonyouthrevealnostatisticallysignificant

d

ifferencesacrossgroups(foreithermalesorfemales

)inself-reported

arrestsordelinquency,andanincreaseinself-reported

problembehav-

io

rsamongmalesintheExperimentalcomparedtotheControlgroup.

92

92

SeeKling,Ludwig,andKatz,128QJEconat11617(citedinn

ote19).Comparingthe

controlgroupsmeanself-reportedarrestratewithwhatisimpliedbythe

administrativerecords

suggestthattheformeraresusceptibletoconsiderableunderreporting.W

hetherthisisalsotrue

fo

rthebehaviorproblemsindex,whichrevealsapositiveExperimental-Controldifferencefor

m

aleyouth,isnotclear.Ofcourse,misreportingwouldhavetobesystem

aticallydifferentacross

groupsinordertoaffecttheestimateforacross-groupdifferencesinbeha

viorproblems.

0.1.2.3.4.5

LifetimeArrests,OtherCrimes

10

20

30

40

50

Age

Controls

Experimental

Section8-o

nly

H:OtherCrim

es,MTOFemales

0.1.2.3.4.510

20

30

40

50

Age

Controls

Experimental

Section8-only

G:PropertyCrime,MTOFemales

LifetimeArrests,PropertyCrimes

0.1.2.3.4.5

LifetimeArrests,ViolentCrimes

10

20

30

40

50

Age

Controls

Experimental

Section8-o

nly

F:ViolentCrim

e,MTOFemales

0.4.81.21.6

LifetimeArrests,AllCrimes

10

20

30

40

50

Age

Controls

Experimental

Section8-only

E:AllCrimes,MTOFemales


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2006]

BrokenWindows:NewEvidence

319

AP

PENDIXTABLE1

AverageMisdemeanorArrestsperPrecinct,SelectedYears

1989

1993

1998

Harcourt-

Ludwigdataset

1,754

1,795

3,034

Kelling-Sousa

dataset

1,811

1,779

3,034

Notes:TheKelling-Sousafiguresare

takenfromTable2oftheirManhattanInstitutereport.

Thesefiguresaremeannumberofmisdemeanorarrestsperprecinct,calculatedwithoutweight-

ingbyprecinctpopulation.

Finally,whileKSdoesnotreportthemeanviolentcrimeratefor

theirdatasetovertheentire19891998period(thesumofmurder,

rape,robbery,andfelonious

assault),theirFigure1Areportsthetotal

numberofviolentcrimesforNewYorkCityasawholebyyear.Inour

datasetthesefiguresequal144,375in1989,131,310in1993,97,170in

1995,and70,725in1998.Ea

chofthesenumbers,andtheoveralltrend

showninthetoppanelofourAppendixFigure1,matchcloselythe

numbersrepresentedintheirFigure1A.




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APPENDIXFIGURE1

ViolentCrimeCountsinNewYorkCityby

Year,

Harcourt-LudwigDataset

050,000100,000150,000200,000250,000

1990

1995

2000

year

ViolentCrime

Misdemea

norArrests

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