Hanford Challenge & World Affair CouncilSeattle, March 28, 2011 

  

Chernobyl 25 Years Later:Lessons Learned? 

 Alexey V. YablokovRussian Academy of Sciences, Moscow

Yablokov, 2011

“Chernobyl : Consequences of

the Catastrophe for People and Nature”by Alexey Yablokov, Vassily Nesterenko

and Alexey NesterenkoConsulting Editor Janette Sherman

Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences

Volume # 1181 (2009)

Yablokov, 2011

Hundreds of individuals and organizations help us to complete this mega-review. We

used about 5,000 sources

This is the broadest scope of the Chernobyl consequences.

Chernobyl radionuclides: 43% of Belarus, Ukraine and Russia37% - other Europe, 20% - Asia, North America and Africa

Radionuclide’ plums in 10

days after the

Catastrophe

(Livermore Nat. Lab., 1992)

Yablokov, 2011

Yablokov, 2011

Official secrecy and falsification of the USSR medical statistics for the first 3½ years after

the Catastrophe

Difficulties in estimating true individual doses:

• reconstruction of doses for each day, week, and month;

• uncertainty effect of “hot particles”;

• Amount of contaminated milk, water and food in personal consumption;

• and so on…

Yablokov, 2011

Requirement by IAEA and WHO “significant correlation” between

imprecisely calculated individual doses

AND precisely diagnosed illnesses, as the only iron-clad proof to associate illness

with Chernobyl radiation

is not scientifically valid.

Yablokov, 2011

Real number of Chernobyl victims is possible to calculate by comparing

human morbidity & mortality on territories similar

in geographical, social, and economic features

BUT

different in level radionuclides’ contamination

Yablokov, 2010

All solid cancers in Bryansk and Kaluga provinces and Russia (Ivanov et al., 2004)

The frequencies of miscarriages among liquidators families (1) and average Ryazan

province population (2) (Lyaginskaya et al., 2007).

Yablokov, 2011

Thyroid cancer in heavily contaminated provinces and average in Ukraine (Prysyazhnyuk, 2007).

Yablokov, 2011

Connecticut children thyroid cancer (per 100, 000), 1935 – 1992, and Jodine-131 milk level at May – June 1986 (Reid and Mangano, 1995).

Yablokov, 2011

Yablokov, 2011

Healtn disorders associated with Chernobyl radiation increased morbidity and prevalence:

Blood and the circulatory system; Endocrine system; Immune system; Respiratory system; Urogenital tract and reproductive disorders; Musculoskeletal system; Central nervous system (brain damage, diminished

intelligence, behavioral and mental disorders); Digestive tract; Congenital malformations and anomalies; Thyroid cancer; Leukemia. Other malignant neoplasms.

These children were born after Chernobyl

Yablokov, 2011

Yablokov, 2011

Other health consequences of the Catastrophe:

Premature aging: in both adults and children.

Mutations: somatic and germ cells.

Eyes anomalies: cataracts, vitreous destruction, refraction anomalies, etc.

Polymorbidity: people afflicted by several illnesses simultaneously

Yablokov, 2011

Deterioration of the public health after Chernobyl WHO/IAEA associated with “RADIOPHOBIA”

• Psychological factors (“radiophobia”) unlikely major reason because morbidity is increasing after the Catastrophe, whereas ”radiophobia” is decreasing

• And what is the level of “radiophobia” among voles, swallows and frogs which demonstrate similar health disorders and increasing mutation rates?

Yablokov, 2011

IAEA-WHO (2005): estimated additional 9,000 deaths in Belarus, Ukraine and Russia caused by cancers during 80 years after the Catastrophe

Our estimation: additional 900,000 deaths worldwide caused by all Chernobyl’s illnesses for ONLY the first 20 years

Mortality in six Russian Chernobyl’s contaminated provinces vs control regions

(Khudoley et al, 2006)

Yablokov, 2011

Infant mortality rates in Switzerland and Finland, 1980 - 2006, and undisturbed trend line

(official statistical data, by Korblein, in litt. 2008)

Yablokov, 2011

Finland

Yablokov, 2011

What happened to voles and frogs in the Chernobyl zone will happen to humans in

coming generations:• increasing mutation rates, • increasing morbidity and mortality, • reduced lifespan,• decreased intensity of reproduction, • changes in male/female sex ratios,• etc.

Yablokov, 2011

WHO diminished the Catastrophe consequences because

tied to IAEA by agreement (1959), allowing hide information from the public:

• Article III - Exchange of information and documents • 1. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and

the World Health Organization (WHO) recognize that they might have to take certain restrictive measures to ensure the confidentiality of information that were provided to them.

Agreement WHO-IAE from May 28, 1959 (Resolution WHA 12-40)

Yablokov, 2011

Chernobyl’ lessons:

1st lesson: The damage of “peaceful atom” can be similar as nuclear weapons;

2nd lesson: The Article III.1 Agrement between WHO and IAEA must be cancelled

3rd lesson : DO NOT TRUST the official declarations on public radiation safety

Yablokov, 2010

Chernobyl’ lessons:

4th Lesson : Independent radiation monitoring of air, food and water MUST BE ESTABLISHED;

5th Lesson: Independent monitoring of incorporated radionuclides MUST BE ESTABLISHED around every NPP

Chernobyl and Fukushima: comparison

As today Fukushima released 20 times less radionuclides, but area around that NPP is much more populated

Fucushima first time challenges:• multy-reactors meltdown• problems with spent nuclear fuel pool• accident with MOX (uran-plutonium) fuel

Yablokov, 2011

Yablokov, 2011

Vassily Nesterenko , A.Yablokov, Geneve, 26 April, 2008,

Yablokov, 2011

Hanford Challenge & World Affair CouncilSeattle, March 28, 2011 

Chernobyl 25 Years Later:Lessons Learned? 

Thank youfor your attention!

Yablokov, 2011

In heavily contaminated Chernobyl zonewildlife sometimes appears to flourish,

but the appearance is deceptive.

• According to morphogenetic, cytogenetic, and immunological tests, all studied

populations of plants, fishes, amphibians, and mammals there are in poor condition. • This zone is a “black hole”— some

species may only persist there via immigration.

Yablokov, 2011

Chernobyl has “enriched” medicine with terms / syndromes

• “Chernobyl AIDS,” “Chernobyl heart,” “Chernobyl limbs,”• “Vegeto-vascular dystonia”,

• “Incorporated long-life radionuclides”, • “Acute inhalation lesions of the upper respiratory tract”,

• “Chronic fatigue syndrome,” • “Lingering radiating illness syndrome”,

• “Radioactive aging syndrome”,• “Radioactive diminitia”,

• “Cancer rejuvenescence,” • “Irradiation in utero”.

Yablokov, 2011

Medical, biological, and radiological research must expand and be supported to provide

the full picture of Chernobyl’s consequences.

Instead this scale of research has been cut in Russia, Ukraine, and Belarus.

Yablokov, 2010

All studied plants, animals, and microorganisms in the Chernobyl territories have higher levels of mutations than

those in less contaminated areas.

The chronic low-dose exposure in Chernobyl territories results in a

trans-generation’ accumulation of genomic instability.

Yablokov, 2011

All studied populations of plants and animals exhibit of morphological deformities that were rare

prior to the Catastrophe.

The number of the anomalous pollen grains and spores in the Chernobyl radioactively contaminated soils indicate geobotanical disturbance.