HAL and little more

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Hydrometeorology and Arctic Lab

• Hydrometeorology– Instrumented Study area– MESH model– Some board participation– Convective Initiation (UNSTABLE)– Convective guidance

• Arctic (and Climate)– Mainly using climate data for studies– Lightning correlations– Fog/ Stratus– Numerical model evaluation– DRI

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H is for Hydrology

• R&D of tools supporting hydrological prediction

• water availability in arid regions – modeling and remote sensing tools – assess soil moisture in context of hydrological cycle.

• Satellite validation partnerships in campaigns during 2007, 2008, 2009 A significant collaborative effort with NASA, CSA, AAFC,

USDA, U of Guelph, U of Sherbrooke occurred in 2010 Additional partnerships with University of Sask’s Global

Institute for Water Security and Ag Canada’s NAIS program in 2011

Achieved status as a NASA SMAP (Soil Moisture Active Passive) validation site in 2012

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Integration of field studies forremote sensing and modeling validation

HAL study site – Kenaston/Brightwater Creek

• 24 sites (EC)• 10 x 10 km grid

24 EC precip, soil moisture stationsHourly precip and soil moisture at 3 depths

Nested scale design-24 EC sites-16 U of G sitesIn the headwaters of Brightwater Creek (05HG002)

Suitable for modelingand remote sensingvalidation at multiplescales

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Collaboration – CanEx-SM10

SMOS validationSMAP pre-launch algorithm development

PartnersEC, NASA, AAFC, CSA, U of Guelph, U of Sherbrooke

Kenaston40 times series sites+ 20 additional ground truth sites BERMS20 time series sites + temporary time series sites + additional ground truth sites

BERMS

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KENaston campaign

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H is for Hydrological prediction

• Exploring flow guidance system

• Based on NWP

• Polling provinces for interest and scope

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Background: The NWP System

“On-line”mode

“Off-line”mode

“On-line”mode

“Off-line”mode

Surfaceobservations

Upper airobservations

CaLDAS:Canadianland data

assimilation

CaPA:Canadian

precipitationanalysis

GEM atmosphericmodel

4DVardata assimilation

CLASS/ISBAWATFLOOD

CRHMCold Regions Hydrological Model

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Original Proposal

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Refined Proposal

The task force to explore opportunities for better collaboration between EC and P/T Flood Forecasting agencies in the following ways:

1) Develop a requirements document for EC to use as a basis for improving products and services to P/Ts

2) Produce a discussion document regarding how P/Ts can help EC improve its Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) model.

3) Help write a 2013 Search and Rescue – New Initiatives Fund (SAR-NIF) proposal for additional funding.

4) Encourage the prototyping and implementation of products and services to improve collaboration between P/T flood forecasters and EC.

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D is between H and A:Drought Research Initiative – Prairie Extremes• A joint University-EC collaboration (UManitoba, USask, HAL, S+T)

• Funded by CFCAS

• To better understand the processes associated with the precipitation extremes (both wet and dry) and impacts across the Canadian Prairies that occurred in 2009-2011.

Variety of Datasets Used

• Gridded temperature and precipitation data sets (CANGRD, CAPA).

• NCEP-NCAR reanalysis products.

• Several surface-based data sources maintained by Environment Canada used to

examine temperature and precipitation variations, lightning activity and river

discharges.

• Canadian National Fire Database used to characterize lightning-caused fire and

associated area burned statistics

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Moisture extremes and impacts occurring simultaneously over different parts of the region

2010 Gridded Total Precipitation from CAPA

Large Fires (> 200 ha) on the Prairies 2009 - 2011

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2010 Gridded Lightning Activity

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Surface rainfall and cloud-to-ground lightning relationships in CanadaExploratory Study:

Can a predictive capability to estimate convective rainfall using lightning information be developed?

Objectives: – Develop relationship between

lightning activity and surface rainfall in Canada [rainfall yield] for period April-October 1999-2003.

– Assess how well the derived rain yields can predict convective precipitation in Canada for the April-October seasons of 2004 and 2010.

DRAFT – Page 15 – April 21, 2023

Surface rainfall and cloud-to-ground lightning relationships in Canada

Spatial pattern of rainfall yields across Canada’s ecozones for the period Apr-Oct 1999-2003 (units : x108 kg fl-1 [kg per flash])

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Surface rainfall and cloud-to-ground lightning relationships in Canada• A broad swath of the middle and

northern portions of Canada lie outside of radar coverage.

• Examined the effect of replacing station-derived rain yields with ecozone-derived rain yields.

• Prediction uncertainty error = ratio of ecozone MAE to observed precipitation (percentage)

• A predictive capability to estimate seasonal convective rainfall using lightning information may be feasible in data sparse regions without radar coverage, but the predictions exhibit greater uncertainty in some ecozones than in others.

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