haig sarkissian: the economic impact of femtocells on the 4g lte business case
TRANSCRIPT
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The Economic Impact of Femtocells on the 4G LTE Business Case
By Haig Sarkissian
March 4, 2014 Barcelona
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� How can Femtocells add coverage and capacity? � Very small cells in very large numbers
� Building an effective business case for HetNets
� Assumptions � Impact on 4G Business Case � Sensitivity Analysis
� Opportunities for Mobile and who are also Cable
operators
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… Agenda… 2
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3
Randall Haig Magnus
Hideo
Berge
Mark Riad Arif
Hideo
March 18, 2015
Michael
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…equipment vendor clients…
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Critical Questions � Can Femto Cells be used to provide meaningful
coverage and capacity � What do Femto cells cost? � Who pays for Femto equipment? � Who pays for Femto installation and backhaul? � How many Femtos are needed per square km? � Can you deploy Femtos without SON? � Can Femtos form a primary network? � Business Case Impact of Femto?
7 … Why Femtos?
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Proposed Answers � Can Femto Cells be used to provide meaningful
coverage and capacity? Perhaps! � What do Femto cells cost? US$30 – US$100 � Who pays for Femto equipment? MNO � Who pays for Femto installation and backhaul?
Consumers � How many Femtos are needed per square km?
Many! � Can you deploy Femtos without SON? No! � Can Femto form the primary network? No! � Business Case Impact of Femto?
8 … Why Femtos?
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Introduction to WiROI™ � 4G Operator Business Case Tool � Complete Financial and ROI Analysis of a 4G
Network Roll Out � 10 Year Business Case � Flexible For All Markets with Over 450 Input
Variables � Easy to use Dashboard GUI for Sensitivity
Analysis and “What If” Scenarios � Build a comprehensive business model
… WiROI…
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WiROI™ Research Analysis Case Study – NYC Femto Analysis
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Baseline: NYC – Dense Urban Case Study
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New York City
8.1 million Population
LTE using AWS (1700MHz)
10+10MHz Channel
Coverage 789 sq km
3.8 Million 4G subscribers
376 Coverage Sites
6,327 Capacity Sites
Cumulative CAPEX $1.6B
Cumulative OPEX $2.7B
TCO $4.3B
� Assumption: LTE deployment in Urban, NYC market, USA
� Activity: Simulate TCO impact of implementing Femto Technology
� Identify: The scenario for optimal financial return
� Analyze: Understand main drivers of the results
… NYC Case Study …
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14 … LTE Coverage & Capacity
Cells – Microcells…
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LTE Baseline With Femto Deployment Delta % / $
Total CAPEX $1,616m $597m 63.1% / $1019m
Network OPEX $683m $373m 45.4% / $310m
Network TCO $2,299m $970m 57.80% / $1,329m
… NYC Market Results …
� To provide coverage and capacity using LTE Micro Cells � 376 Small Cells for Coverage and for Capacity in year one � By year Ten, 6,327 Small Cells are needed for Capacity � If Femtos were deployed – we would need 1,725 Small Cells by year 10 � We would also need ~200,000 Femto cells (6% penetration) of 3.3m subs
�
� Network OpEx savings of 45% � Value derived per Femto = $6,645 of Cumulative Savings over 10 year � 200,000/789sq.km=250 per sq.km.
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Pros and Cons of Femtocells
Pros � Huge capacity per
square meter � Very low site rental,
power and backhaul expenses
� Scales with time
27 … Why Femto?
Cons � Large numbers
needed for meaningful coverage
� Lack of control by MNO
� Serious SON needed to make them scale
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WiROI™ GUI Demo
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