h08 product validation over turkey - dr. İbrahim sönmez...h-saf products and hydrological...

İbrahim Sönmez

Department of Meteorology, Ondokuz Mayıs University, TURKEY

[email protected]

H08 product validation over Turkey

H-SAF Products and Hydrological Validation Workshop 27-30 November , 2012 Krakow, Poland

OUTLINE

– Validation Area

– NWP(MM5) Data for Soil Moisture

– H08 product validation strategy

– July-December 2011 validation results

– Summary/Conclusions

– Questions/Comments


Validation Area


NWP Data for Soil Moisture

MM5 run at Turkish State Met Service :

MM5 forecast data is used for H08 product

validation over Turkey.

ECMWF dataset with 16 km spatial resolution is

used as the boundary and initial data.

MM5 LSM(Land Surface Model) packet is used

for soil moisture product generation.

MM5 model is run with 4.5 km spatial resolution.



MM5 run at Turkish State Met Service :

MM5 is run at 00, 06, 12 and 18 Z to get forecast

data .

For each run, boundary and initial data is

updated from ECMWF data.

For each run, hourly forecast data(on top of

each hour) is obtained for 72 hour.

Soil moisture data is provided at 4 different levels

(7, 28, 100 and 255 cm) .


H08 validation strategy

Spatial Match:



Spatial Match:

Time: 20110701 @ 06:45:00



Spatial Match:



Spatial Match:

H08 data = NaN

H08 data > 0.95

H08 data < 0.05

are also excluded

from the analysis.



AWOS sites

Soil temperature at 314 Awos sites is used for frozen land control

Awos data is available in 10 minute intervals (00, 10, 20, ….,50)

Awos data closest to the H08 time is assigned to the grid points by using

‘nearest neighbor hood’ method.

H08 grid data with soil temperature <0oC are excluded from the analysis.



MM5 data

H08 data

Only MM5 forecast data run at 00 Z is used for the validation.

The closest MM5 forecast time(top of hour) with H08 scan time is chosen.

Soil moisture obs at H08 grid points are assigned by using ‘nearest

neighbor hood’ method using the MM5 data.

MM5 data @~45000 grid points


Validation results/monthly


Validation results/seasonal


Summary/Conclusions

MM5 forecast data over Turkey is used for the H08 product

validation

Anomaly time-series is not used in CC estimation.

Relatively higher BIAS amounts are observed for summer

months than the winter months.

Quite lower SD amounts are observed for summer months

Decreasing RMSE trend is observed from summer through

winter months

Correlations during winter months are observed to be

higher than the summer months.

Monthly trends are observed to be similar with the

seasonal trends.


Acknowledgements

TMS colleagues for decoding forecast data.

Fabio Delogu & Simone Gabellani for their

kind help for decoding BUFR & netCDF

files.

Stefan Hasenauer & Sivia Puca for their

guidance during the validation process.


Questions / Comments

h08 product validation over turkey - dr. İbrahim sönmez...h-saf products and hydrological...

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