H

H

C

H

H

CH H

H

C

H

H

C

H

H

C

H

H

C

H

H

C

H

H

C

H

H

C

H

H

C

H

H

C

H

HH

Methane Gas

C:H = 1:4

Typical Oil

Typical Coal

C:H = 1:2

C:H = 2:1

H

H

H

H

H

C

H

C

C C

C C

C C

H H

C

C

C

C

H C

C

C

C

C

C

H

H

C

C

C

C

C

C H

Carbon-Hydrogen Composition of Fossil Fuels

1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 210010-2

10-1

100

101

102

Decarbonization: Evolution of the Ratio of Hydrogen (H) to Carbon (C) in the World Primary Fuel Mix

Methane: H/C = 4

Oil: H/C = 2

Coal: H/C = 1

Wood: H/C = 0.1

Hydrogen Economy

Methane Economy

NonfossilHydrogen

H / CH

H + C

0.67

0.09

0.50

0.80

Year

t = 300 years (length of process)

1935 (midpoint of process)

0.90

Source: Ausubel, 1996, after Marchetti, 1985

Falling Global Carbon Intensity of Primary Energy

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

1850 1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050

Kg

C/G

J

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Data sources: IIASA, BP (1965-2001), CDIAC http://cdiac.esd.ornl.gov/trends/emis/em_cont.htm

USA: Hydrogen Production, 1971-1999Semi-log scale

104

105

106

1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

mil

lio

ns

of

cu

bic

fe

et

Source: N. M. Victor and J.H. Ausubel, 2002

Chernobyl, 1990

Supergrid Energy Pipeline

MgB2

MgB2

ElectricalInsulation

ThermalInsulation

Vacuum

Liquid H2

@ 21 K

± 50,000 Vdc

100,000 A10 GW

Source: P. Grant, EPRI

N. M. Victor and J. H. Ausubel, 2001

Uranium inventories at US utilities per kWh generated vs. cumulative electricity generation from nuclear,

learning rates 1984-1999

Gas consumed at US utilities per kWh generated vs. cumulative electricity generation from gas,

Learning rates 1920-2002

1

10

100

100 1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000 10,000,000 100,000,000

GWh

cu.f

t./k

Wh

19201920-1930LR=11.6%

1930-1950LR=4.9%

1950-1970LR=8.5% 1970-2002

LR=8%

2002

19301950

1970

Source: N. M. Victor & J. H. Ausubel, 2004

Coal consumed at US utilities per kWh Generated vs. cumulative electricity generation from coal,

Learning rates 1920-2002

0.1

1

10

10,000 100,000 1,000,000 10,000,000 100,000,000

GWh

lb/k

Wh

1920 1920-1930LR 14.7%

1930-1950LR 8.7% 1950-1970

LR 10.9%1970-2002LR –4.2%

2002

19301950

1970

Source: N. M. Victor & J. H. Ausubel, 2004

Source: N. Victor & J. Ausubel, 2003

Hydrocarbon fuels ranked by heat value

Major fuels ranked by heat value

Uranium enriched to 3.5% in LWR

Firewood

Brown Coals

Crude Oils

LPG

Natural Gas

Hydrogen

Natural uranium in FBR

Natural uranium in CANDU

Natural uranium in LWR

with U & Pu recycle

Natural uranium in LWR

100

102

104

106

108

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

MJ/

kg

Black Coals

Source: N. Victor and J. Ausubel, 2003