guna paudyal-26 feb-session3 - asian disaster reduction ... · microsoft powerpoint - guna...
TRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: Guna Paudyal-26 Feb-Session3 - Asian Disaster Reduction ... · Microsoft PowerPoint - Guna Paudyal-26 Feb-Session3.pptx Author: minakata Created Date: 3/15/2016 1:10:19 PM](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022050603/5faaeaae6274bd3e4d5e031d/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Reduction of flood risk by optimizing reservoirReduction of flood risk by optimizing reservoir operation using real time flood forecast
Guna PaudyalSenior Flood Risk Management Expert
![Page 2: Guna Paudyal-26 Feb-Session3 - Asian Disaster Reduction ... · Microsoft PowerPoint - Guna Paudyal-26 Feb-Session3.pptx Author: minakata Created Date: 3/15/2016 1:10:19 PM](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022050603/5faaeaae6274bd3e4d5e031d/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Presentation Objectives:
To share findings from a study in Maharashtra, g y ,India: Reservoir inflow forecasting and optimized operation to reduce downstream floodoptimized operation to reduce downstream flood
![Page 3: Guna Paudyal-26 Feb-Session3 - Asian Disaster Reduction ... · Microsoft PowerPoint - Guna Paudyal-26 Feb-Session3.pptx Author: minakata Created Date: 3/15/2016 1:10:19 PM](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022050603/5faaeaae6274bd3e4d5e031d/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Flood disasters in Maharashtra,Maharashtra,
India
MaharshtraKrishna-Bhima basins floods 2005-2006
![Page 4: Guna Paudyal-26 Feb-Session3 - Asian Disaster Reduction ... · Microsoft PowerPoint - Guna Paudyal-26 Feb-Session3.pptx Author: minakata Created Date: 3/15/2016 1:10:19 PM](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022050603/5faaeaae6274bd3e4d5e031d/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Krishna BasinFlood losses in one year (2006), Million Rupees
DistrictCrops &
Infrastructure Land/ Structure
HorticultureTotal
Flood losses in one year (2006), Million Rupees
Structure Damages
TotalFarmers State Crops Govt.
NurserySatara 329.3 2.3 63.7 152.9 0.5 548.7
Sangli 744.4 3.5 148.2 98.6 0.4 995.1
Kolhapur 2080.5 26.8 125.7 152.0 1.3 2386.3
DistrictHuman Losses Cattle Losses
2005 2006 2005 20062005 2006 2005 2006
Satara 11 23 156 239
Sangli 13 19 224 23Sangli 13 19 224 23
Kolhapur 26 26 236 80
![Page 5: Guna Paudyal-26 Feb-Session3 - Asian Disaster Reduction ... · Microsoft PowerPoint - Guna Paudyal-26 Feb-Session3.pptx Author: minakata Created Date: 3/15/2016 1:10:19 PM](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022050603/5faaeaae6274bd3e4d5e031d/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
46 major and medium reservoirsIn the Krishna Basin
jOperated with rigid operational rule curves: keep the reservoirs full towards the end of rainy seasontowards the end of rainy season.
But when heavy rain occurs inBut when heavy rain occurs in catchments, then the reservoirs are operated releasing sudden floods downstream with disastrous effects.
High Level Government commission: Floods of 2005 and 2006 were devastating, strong needs of specific forecasts and early warning were felt Reservoir operations shouldforecasts and early warning were felt. Reservoir operations should consider downstream flooding more explicitly.
![Page 6: Guna Paudyal-26 Feb-Session3 - Asian Disaster Reduction ... · Microsoft PowerPoint - Guna Paudyal-26 Feb-Session3.pptx Author: minakata Created Date: 3/15/2016 1:10:19 PM](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022050603/5faaeaae6274bd3e4d5e031d/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Reservoirs of MaharashtraThe reservoirs in Maharashtra are multipurpose - hydropower, irrigation domestic and industrial water supplyirrigation, domestic and industrial water supply.
Though these reservoirs are not specifically provided with g p y pflood cushion, they can moderate flood peaks to considerable extent by proper reservoir operations.
Reservoirs are operated with rigid rules as single entities based on the historical hydro-meteorological data and
i i dexperience gained.
These methods are often not adequate for establishingThese methods are often not adequate for establishing optimal operational decisions, especially where integrated operation of multiple reservoirs for flood management is contemplatedcontemplated.
![Page 7: Guna Paudyal-26 Feb-Session3 - Asian Disaster Reduction ... · Microsoft PowerPoint - Guna Paudyal-26 Feb-Session3.pptx Author: minakata Created Date: 3/15/2016 1:10:19 PM](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022050603/5faaeaae6274bd3e4d5e031d/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
A Real time monitoring and forecasting system was developed in 2012-13. about 300 telemetry stations were i ll dinstalled.
Flood Bulletin
SMS & E-mail alerts
![Page 8: Guna Paudyal-26 Feb-Session3 - Asian Disaster Reduction ... · Microsoft PowerPoint - Guna Paudyal-26 Feb-Session3.pptx Author: minakata Created Date: 3/15/2016 1:10:19 PM](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022050603/5faaeaae6274bd3e4d5e031d/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Real Time Data Acquisition System (RTDAS)(RTDAS)
![Page 9: Guna Paudyal-26 Feb-Session3 - Asian Disaster Reduction ... · Microsoft PowerPoint - Guna Paudyal-26 Feb-Session3.pptx Author: minakata Created Date: 3/15/2016 1:10:19 PM](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022050603/5faaeaae6274bd3e4d5e031d/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Forecasting of inflows and floods
Operational Forecast psince 2013
![Page 10: Guna Paudyal-26 Feb-Session3 - Asian Disaster Reduction ... · Microsoft PowerPoint - Guna Paudyal-26 Feb-Session3.pptx Author: minakata Created Date: 3/15/2016 1:10:19 PM](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022050603/5faaeaae6274bd3e4d5e031d/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
The Case of Ujjani Reservoir and flooding of Pandarpur city
![Page 11: Guna Paudyal-26 Feb-Session3 - Asian Disaster Reduction ... · Microsoft PowerPoint - Guna Paudyal-26 Feb-Session3.pptx Author: minakata Created Date: 3/15/2016 1:10:19 PM](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022050603/5faaeaae6274bd3e4d5e031d/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Optimized Operation of the reservoir based onOptimized Operation of the reservoir based on 3-day inflow forecast
![Page 12: Guna Paudyal-26 Feb-Session3 - Asian Disaster Reduction ... · Microsoft PowerPoint - Guna Paudyal-26 Feb-Session3.pptx Author: minakata Created Date: 3/15/2016 1:10:19 PM](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022050603/5faaeaae6274bd3e4d5e031d/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Ujjani reservoir operation during Moonsoon 2006
![Page 13: Guna Paudyal-26 Feb-Session3 - Asian Disaster Reduction ... · Microsoft PowerPoint - Guna Paudyal-26 Feb-Session3.pptx Author: minakata Created Date: 3/15/2016 1:10:19 PM](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022050603/5faaeaae6274bd3e4d5e031d/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
DistrictCrops &
Infrastructure Land/ St t
HorticultureT t l
Optimized reservoir operation during flood emergencies
Structure Damages
TotalFarmers State Crops Govt.
NurserySatara 329.3 2.3 63.7 152.9 0.5 548.7
Sangli 744.4 3.5 148.2 98.6 0.4 995.1
Kolhapur 2080.5 26.8 125.7 152.0 1.3 2386.3
l d l i (2006) R 2386 il /
DistrictHuman Losses Cattle Losses
Flood losses in one year (2006) Rs. 2386 mil / yr.
Th l2005 2006 2005 2006
Satara 11 23 156 239
S li 13 19 224 23
These losses could have been Sangli 13 19 224 23
Kolhapur 26 26 236 80
C t f tti RTDAS (t l t 300 t ti ) R 230 il
avoided
Cost of setting up RTDAS (telemetry 300 stations) = Rs. 230 milCost of forecasting system incl., software, datatbase, capacity bldg., (completed in 18 months + 2 years support = Rs. 82 million(completed in 18 months + 2 years support Rs. 82 millionTOTAl= Rs.312 million
![Page 14: Guna Paudyal-26 Feb-Session3 - Asian Disaster Reduction ... · Microsoft PowerPoint - Guna Paudyal-26 Feb-Session3.pptx Author: minakata Created Date: 3/15/2016 1:10:19 PM](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022050603/5faaeaae6274bd3e4d5e031d/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
Reservoir Operation must consider downstream floods
Joy for some, trouble for many !
![Page 15: Guna Paudyal-26 Feb-Session3 - Asian Disaster Reduction ... · Microsoft PowerPoint - Guna Paudyal-26 Feb-Session3.pptx Author: minakata Created Date: 3/15/2016 1:10:19 PM](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022050603/5faaeaae6274bd3e4d5e031d/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
Vadodharaa city flooding in 2014.
![Page 16: Guna Paudyal-26 Feb-Session3 - Asian Disaster Reduction ... · Microsoft PowerPoint - Guna Paudyal-26 Feb-Session3.pptx Author: minakata Created Date: 3/15/2016 1:10:19 PM](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022050603/5faaeaae6274bd3e4d5e031d/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
Chennai Floods Dec. 2015
Extreme weather events rise in frequencyq y
![Page 17: Guna Paudyal-26 Feb-Session3 - Asian Disaster Reduction ... · Microsoft PowerPoint - Guna Paudyal-26 Feb-Session3.pptx Author: minakata Created Date: 3/15/2016 1:10:19 PM](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022050603/5faaeaae6274bd3e4d5e031d/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
Real time flood warning- Gives you time to act
SMS MessageFlood model MMS Message
WeatherForecast
High Flood 25 km of road to yyywill be flooded by 1
Real time rain info
Risk in city areaXXX, h k b it
will be flooded by 1 m. next 12 hours.
info. check website