guido di tella memorial lecturepersonal.lse.ac.uk/tenreyro/gdtslides.pdf · 2021. 6. 23. · guido...
TRANSCRIPT
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Silvana Tenreyro
Guido Di Tella Memorial Lecture
Economic Challenges to Latin America from the Pandemic
May 2021,
Latin American Centre, University of Oxford
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The Pandemic
➢ Health and economic outcomes
➢ Long term scarring: education
➢ Policy space in the recovery: a role for monetary policy
25 May 2021
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1. Looking back, the pandemic has hit Latin America particularly hard
25 May 2021
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Covid-19 mortality has been high in Latin America
3Source: Our World in Data. Regional breakdown is for South America rather than LA. But Mexico has similar figures to South America.
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Latin American economies were hit hard by the pandemic
25 May 2021 4Source: IMF April 2021 WEO.
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Latin American fiscal policy has loosened less than in AEs
25 May 2021 5Source: IMF April 2021 WEO.
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2. In the near term, Latin America will likely recover more slowly than advanced economies
25 May 2021
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Latin America’s vaccine rollout is lagging AEs
25 May 2021 7Source: Our World In Data.
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3. In the medium term, Latin America is likely to experience more scarring than advanced economies
25 May 2021
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More Scarring expected in Latin America than in AEs
25 May 2021 9Source: IMF, Bank calculations.
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More learning scarring expected in Latin America
25 May 2021 10Source: IMF, Bank calculations.
➢School closures for longer
➢Unequal impact, limited online access to education
➢Life-changing impact on skills, nutrition, physical and mental health, etc.
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Latin American education already underperformed pre-pandemic
25 May 2021 11Source: World Bank, 2018 PISA scores for reading, math and science.
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4. Focus on education to reduce scarring and use monetary policy to help along recovery
25 May 2021