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Key findings & analysis from a report I co-authored on Concentrating PV (CPV)

TRANSCRIPT

  • 1. Concentrating Photovoltaics 2011:
    Technology, Costs and Markets
    May 26, 2011
    Speaker:
    Brett Prior
    GTM Research
    Moderator:
    Scott Clavenna
    GTM Research

2. Webinar Logistics
Please enter your questions at any point during the presentation
Make sure your volume is turned up
Slides are available for download. You can also enlarge through buttons below
Webinar will be archived and available within 24 hours, you will receive an email when it is available
3. http://www.gtmresearch.com/report/concentrating-photovoltaics-2011
Report highlights
Over 260 pages
Over 90 graphs, tables, and illustrations
Global demand forecasts by country
Analysis of key metrics affecting levelized cost of electricity (LCOE)
Capacity Factor
Land Usage
Module cost per watt
Tracking system cost
Balance of system costs
O&M costs
In-depth profiles for 70 leading CPV system manufacturers and cell suppliers
List of all 170+ CPV projects in operation or under development worldwide
4. LCPV 2x-8x
MCPV
10x-150x
HCPV
200x+
Flat plate
5. HCPV Technology
Small Dish
Lens
6. HCPV: Large Panel Systems
7. HCPV: Dish and Heliostat/Tower Systems
EdTek
Greenfield Solar
Zenith Solar
Solar Systems
Solar Systems
Abengoa
8. HCPV: Small Panel & Other Systems
9. HCPV: Rooftop and Flat Panel Systems
10. MCPV
11. LCPV
12. CPV Project Pipeline
13. The 689 MW of CPV in the pipeline sounds impressiveBut compared with the 33,000 MW of installed non-concentrating PV it seems tiny
14. Global CPV Ecosystem
Total worldwide CPV projects in operation/under construction/development (w/ PPA/FIT): 483 MW-ac
Size of company logo proportional to total MW in operation/development
306
127
37
13
All Other System Manufacturers
15. US: 456 MW
32 MW
1%
7%
Spain: 18 MW
115 MW
25%
306 MW
12 MW
69%
67%
CPV Plants In Operation / Under Construction / Development (with PPA/FIT)
(483 MW-ac Total)
Greece: 2 MW
Portugal: 5 MW
Australia: 3 MW
Other System Manufacturers
Map created by Brett Prior, GTM Research.Last updated 5/11.Please send updates to prior@gtmresearch.com
16. US Market Potential
17. In order for US utilities in the Southwest to meet their RPS targets, over 45,000 MW of new solar plants (or other renewables) will be required by 2020
18. The US Market for utility-scale solar looks promising.
But CPV companies dont develop their own projects.
So, who are the key gate-keepers that need to be won over for CPV to succeed?
19. The US Utility Solar Market can be broken down by technology
20. The US Utility Solar Market can be broken down by developer type
Vertically Integrated Manufacturers (i.e. First Solar, BrightSource) seem unlikely to select CPV systems for their projects
21. For CPV to succeed globally, it first needs to penetrate the US Market
For CPV manufacturers, the Independent Power Producers (IPPs) are akin to Normandy on D-Day
Full report contains Top 10 IPPs
22. The second target customer segment is the Pure-Play Solar Developers
Although they are generally cash-poor, and wont be able to move forward unless the CPV manufacturers bring financing along
Full report contains Top 10 Pure-Play Solar Developers
23. How does CPV compare on key metrics?
or
What could possibly compel developers to select CPV over other solar options?
24. CPV compares favorablyvs. other solar options on most metrics
25. Key Metric #1: LCOE
Module efficiency is a key driver of balance of systems costs, and therefore a key driver of LCOE
CPV has real room for improvement.Flat plate PV looking a bit flat.
26. Key Metric #1: LCOE
While installed cost should never be used to compare options, it is the primary driver of LCOE
Report also contains cost per watt forecast by technology through 2015
27. Key Metric #1: LCOE
If our costs projections are right, there very likely wont be a red line in 2015
Report contains detailed LCOE comparisons

  • By solar technology 28. By location (DNI) 29. By year

Key Metric #2: Bankability
Apart from that Mrs. Lincoln, how did you enjoy the play?
30. Key Metric #5: Capacity Factor
The secret sauce that allows CPV to cost less per kWh, even though it costs more per watt
31. Key Metric #7: Land Usage
Seems like it would be important.Its not.
32. CPV Forecast
33. CPV expected to grow to 1,000+ MW of new installations in 2015
But by 2015 that will represent less than 4% share of the total solar market
34. GTM forecasts CPV to be concentrated in the US, Australia, and India
Full Report contains detailed CPV forecasts through 2015

  • by country 35. by year

Q&A
Brett Prior, CFA
Senior Analyst
GTM Research
prior@gtmresearch.com