gtm research cpv webinar

COPYRIGHT 2011 GTM RESEARCH ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 1

Concentrating Photovoltaics 2011:

Technology, Costs and Markets

May 26, 2011

Speaker:

Brett Prior

GTM Research

Moderator:

Scott Clavenna

GTM Research

CPV Overview CPV Project Pipeline US MarketHow does CPV compare

on Key MetricsForecast


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http://www.gtmresearch.com/report/concentrating-photovoltaics-2011

• Report highlights

– Over 260 pages

– Over 90 graphs, tables, and illustrations

– Global demand forecasts by country

– Analysis of key metrics affecting levelized cost of electricity (LCOE)

• Capacity Factor

• Land Usage

• Module cost per watt

• Tracking system cost

• Balance of system costs

• O&M costs

– In-depth profiles for 70 leading CPV system manufacturers and cell suppliers

– List of all 170+ CPV projects in operation or under development worldwide










LCPV

2x-8x

MCPV

10x-150x

Flat plate

HCPV

200x+




HCPV Technology

Small Dish Lens




Amonix

Concentrix

C Power

Renovalia

Circadian

Daido Steel

EverPhoton

MST

OPEL

Sharp

Isofoton

Morgan Solar

Solergy

SolarTec

SolFocus

Spirox

Arima

Browave

Sungri

Heliotrop

Greenvolts

HCPV: Large Panel Systems




EdTek Greenfield Solar Solar Systems

Solar Systems

Zenith Solar

Abengoa

HCPV: Dish and Heliostat/Tower Systems




Green&Gold Energy

Cool Earth

Energy Innovations

Menova

Pyron SolarSemprius

SunSeeker

Emcore

brightLeaf

HCPV: Small Panel & Other Systems




HCPV: Rooftop and Flat Panel Systems

Zettasun XE Solar

SunCycle

Enfocus

Soliant




Entech Solar Covalent Solar

Skyline Solar

Silicon CPV Sunengy

Whitfield Solar

Zytech Solar

Pacific Solartech

MegaWatt Solar

Absolicon

WS Energia Solaris Synergy

MCPV




Abengoa

EHW

JX CrystalsPrism Solar

Silicon CPV

Solaria

Stellaris

Taihan

WS EnergiaZytech

Pythagoras Solar

LCPV






CPV Project Pipeline


305 MW 152 MW

75 MW

-

50 MW

100 MW

150 MW

200 MW

250 MW

300 MW

350 MW

400 MW

450 MW

In Operation Construction Development, withPPA/FIT

Development, noPPA/FIT

To

tal P

roje

cts

(M

W-a

c)

Global CPV Projects by Stage(689 MW-ac Total)

Other

SolFocus

28 MW 41 MW

414 MW

207 MW

85%61%

* **

* Concentrix has 6 projects in San Diego for a total of 305 MW, all of which are contingent on securing a DOE Loan Guarantee** Solar Systems was recently acquired by Silex while in bankruptcy proceedings

The 689 MW of CPV in the pipeline sounds impressiveBut compared with the 33,000 MW of installed non-concentrating PV – it seems tiny




All Other System Manufacturers

MW-ac in

Operation/

Development

System Manufacturer Developer /

IPP

Partners

Manufact

uring

Lens /

MirrorsCell Tracker EPC Electricity

Purchaser

Global CPV EcosystemTotal worldwide CPV projects in operation/under construction/development (w/ PPA/FIT): 483 MW-ac

Size of company logo proportional to total MW in operation/development

306

127

13

37


Other System Manufacturers

CPV Plants In Operation / Under Construction / Development (with PPA/FIT)

(483 MW-ac Total)

12 MW

69%

Spain: 18 MW

Portugal: 5 MW

Greece: 2 MW

306 MW 67%

115 MW 25%

32 MW 7%

1%

US: 456 MW

Map created by Brett Prior, GTM Research. Last updated 5/11. Please send updates to [email protected]

Australia: 3 MW




US Market Potential




26.0 GW

2.1 GW 1.9 GW

6.0 GW

2.4 GW

6.6 GW

-

5.0 GW

10.0 GW

15.0 GW

20.0 GW

25.0 GW

30.0 GW

-

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

CA TX CO NV AZ NM

So

lar C

ap

acity

Req

uire

d to

Meet R

PS

in 2

020 (G

W-a

c)A

nn

ual

En

erg

y C

on

su

mp

tio

n (

in t

ho

usan

ds o

f G

Wh

)

Total Addressable Market for Utility-Scale Renewable Energy in the USTotal of 45 GW of new solar would be required to meet all RPS requirements by 2020

Estimated Annual Energy Consumption in 2020

Portion of Electricity Required from RenewableSources (RPS)

Current Portion from Renewable Sources

New Solar Capacity that would be required tomeet entire RPS

58% of total potential market for solar

In order for US utilities in the Southwest to meet their RPS targets, over 45,000 MW

of new solar plants (or other renewables) will be required by 2020




The US Market for utility-scale solar looks promising.

But CPV companies don’t develop their own projects.

So, who are the key “gate-keepers” that need to be won over

for CPV to succeed?




The US Utility Solar Market can be broken down by technology

CPV448 MW

3.4%

Thin Film2,363 MW

18.0%

c-Si PV4,035 MW

31%

CSP6,255 MW

48%

US: Signed Solar PPAs in High-DNI States Total 13,102 MW-ac




The US Utility Solar Market can be broken down by developer typeVertically Integrated Manufacturers (i.e. First Solar, BrightSource) seem unlikely to select CPV systems for

their projects

Vertically Integrated

Manufacturer9,593 MW

73%

Solar Developer1,009 MW

8%

NextEra520 MW

4%

NRG, 379 MW , 3%

Tenaska, 310 MW , 2%

AES, 300 MW , 2%

All other IPPs990 MW

8%

IPP2,499 MW

19%

US: Signed Solar PPAs in High-DNI States by Developer TypeTotal 13,102 MW-ac




520 379 310 300

179 147 144 50 30 -

439 661

170

422

85

782

1,360

2,300

98

2,380

-

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

NextEraEnergy

Resources

NRG Energy TenaskaSolar /CSolar

AES SolarEnergy

LS Power SempraGeneration

RecurrentEnergy

Iberdrola Cogentrix EnXco K RoadPower

US

So

lar

Pip

eli

ne (

MW

-ac)

Potential US IPP Customers for CPV SystemsRanked by Contracted Pipeline (Total 2,077 MW-ac)

Pipeline without PPA (MW-ac) Solar Projects with PPAs (MW-ac)

IPPs Able to self-finance projects

= Firms already developing CPV projects

For CPV to succeed globally, it first needs to penetrate the US MarketFor CPV manufacturers, the Independent Power Producers (IPPs) are akin to Normandy on D-Day



Full report contains Top 10 IPPs


The second target customer segment is the Pure-Play Solar DevelopersAlthough they are generally cash-poor, and won’t be able to move forward unless the CPV manufacturers

bring financing along

239 169

100 100 62 54 50 49 47 39

1,105

1,021

240

-

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

FotowatioRenewableVentures

SunEdison InlandEnergy Inc.

SilveradoPower

CIRO OneGroup

StarwoodEnergyGroup

Sol Orchard AgileEnergy/New

HarvestVentures

ForesightRenewables

SustainableEnergyCapital

Partners

US

So

lar

Pip

eli

ne (

MW

-ac)

Potential US Developer Customers for CPV SystemsRanked by Contracted Pipeline (Total 908 MW-ac)

Pipeline without PPA (MW-ac) Solar Projects with PPAs (MW-ac)

Solar DevelopersReliant on external finance

= Firms already developing CPV projects



Full report contains Top 10 Pure-Play Solar Developers


How does CPV compare on key metrics?

or

What could possibly compel developers to select CPV over other solar

options?




Summary of Key Metrics by Generation Technology

Representative Company Bankability Modularity*

Water

Usage

Capacity

Factor

Solar-to-

Electric

Efficiency

Land

Usage

Importance of Metric (1-10, 10 highest) 7 5 4 3 2 2

CPV Amonix, Concentrix, SolFocus

Flat Plate PV First Solar (Thin Film)

SunPower (Mono c-Si)

Suntech (Multi c-Si)

ReneSola (2nd tier Multi c-Si)

CSP BrightSource (Power Tower)

Solar Millennium (Trough)

AREVA (CLFR)

Non-Renewables GE (Natural Gas CC Intermediate)

Non-Renewables GE (Natural Gas Peaking)

RPS Eligible

Technologies

Not RPS eligible

LCOE

($/kWh in

2011)

10

CPV compares favorably vs. other solar options on most metrics




25.0%

27.0%28.0%

29.5%30.4%

31.3%

20.0% 20.3% 20.5% 20.7% 20.9% 21.0%

16.2%16.7%

17.2% 17.6%18.0% 18.4%

13.5% 13.9% 14.3% 14.6% 15.0% 15.4%

12.0%12.5%

13.0%13.5%

14.0% 14.3%

11.0%11.5% 11.8% 12.1% 12.4% 12.7%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Module Efficiency Projections by Technology, 2010-2015

Key Metric #1: LCOEModule efficiency is a key driver of balance of systems costs, and therefore a key driver of LCOE

CPV has real room for improvement. Flat plate PV – looking a bit flat.




Key Metric #1: LCOEWhile installed cost should never be used to compare options, it is the primary driver of LCOE

$1.90 $1.75

$1.41

$0.75

$1.33

$1.75

$1.25 $1.04

$0.88 $1.03

$0.94 $1.10

$1.11

$1.29

$1.23

$0.85

$1.14

$1.14

$1.09 $1.04

$0.40 $0.55

$0.56

$0.73

$0.67 $0.32

$0.59

$0.59

$0.54 $0.49

$0.54

$0.74

$0.76

$0.98

$0.90

$0.43

$0.80

$0.80

$0.72 $0.66

$0.00

$0.50

$1.00

$1.50

$2.00

$2.50

$3.00

$3.50

$4.00

$4.50

SuperMonoSilicon

MonoCrystalline

Silicon

MultiCrystalline

Silicon

CdTeThin Film

CIGS Triple JuncIII-V

HCPV

2xLCPV

Si

3xLCPV

Si

10xLCPV

Si

100xMCPV

SI

Ins

tall

ed

Co

st

wit

h 0

% G

ros

s M

arg

ins

($

/W-d

c)

Cost breakdown for installed system with 0% gross margin ($/W-dc), 4Q 2010

2-axis adder to 1-axis

1-axis tracker

Inverter & OtherInstallation Costs

Module Cost

Installation Cost for Typical Configuration (with or without tracking in $/W-dc)$3.24 $3.40 $2.52 $2.04 $2.56 $3.35 $2.99 $2.78 $2.50 $3.22

Report also contains cost per watt forecast by technology through 2015




Key Metric #1: LCOEIf our costs projections are right, there very likely won’t be a red line in 2015

$0.09

$0.10

$0.11

$0.12

$0.13

$0.14

$0.15

$0.16

$0.17

4.50 5.00 5.50 6.00 6.50 7.00 7.50

LCO

E ($

/kW

h)

in t

he

US

incl

ud

ing

ITC

Average Daily DNI kWh/sq. meter

LCOE in the US by Solar Technology, 2015



Report contains detailed LCOE comparisons- By solar technology- By location (DNI)- By year


Key Metric #2: Bankability“Apart from that Mrs. Lincoln, how did you enjoy the play?”



Bankability Ranking

Representative

Company

Technology

Track

Record (yrs) Credit Rating of System Manufacturer

Warranties from Compenent

Suppliers

MW in

Operation

1 Natural Gas 20+ AA na 10,000+

2 Wind 20+ AA na 10,000+

3 Multi c-Si 20+ A na 10,000+

4 Mono c-Si 20+ BBB na 1,000+

5 CdTe 10+ $900M in cash na 1,000+

6 Trough 20+ $200M in cash Schott, Flabeg, Toshiba 1,000+

7 2nd Tier Multi c-Si 20+ $290M in cash na 10,000+

8 CLFR 5 BBB na 52

9 HCPV 10 (2) ** Unprofitable private company Evonik, Credit-Supported Cell Warranty 18

10 Power Tower 4 Unprofitable private company soon to IPO Babcock Power, Siemens 31 (1) *

11 HCPV 2 Public company, $350M in cash 1

12 HCPV 4 Unprofitable private company Spectrolab, Flabeg 3

* BrightSource has a 1 MW operational plant in Israel, but there are another 30 MW of Power Tower plants in operation by other manufacturers in Spain

** Amonix has plants with 10 years of track record using silicon cells, but only 2 years of data for plants with III-V Triple Junction cells


Key Metric #5: Capacity Factor The secret sauce that allows CPV to cost less per kWh, even though it costs more per watt

18.3%20.0%

24.7% 25.0%26.0% 26.4%

28.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

Mono c-Si(fixed)

CdTe (fixed) Mono c-Si (1-axis)

CLFR (dry-cooled)

Trough (dry-cooled)

HCPV Power Tower(dry-cooled, no

gashybridization)

Capacity Factor by Solar TechnologyFor Phoenix, AZ (DNI 6.9 kWh/m^2/day)




Key Metric #7: Land UsageSeems like it would be important. It’s not.

1.6

2.2

2.8

3.3 3.4

4.0

4.2

-

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

CLFR (dry-cooled)*

HCPV Trough (dry-cooled)

Mono c-Si (1-axis)

Mono c-Si(fixed)

CdTe (fixed) Power Tower(dry-cooled)

Ac

res

re

qu

ire

d t

o p

rod

cu

e 1

GW

h/Y

r

Land Usage: Acres Required to Produce 1 GWh/YrPhoenix, AZ (DNI 6.9 kWh/m^2/day)






CPV Forecast


CPV expected to grow to 1,000+ MW of new installations in 2015But by 2015 that will represent less than 4% share of the total solar market

6,260

15,430

18,030 18,162

22,097

25,300

30,402

-

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

2009 2010 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E

New

So

lar

Insta

llati

on

s (

MW

-ac)

Global New Solar Installations (MW-ac), 2009-2015

Solar (PV, CSP & CPV)

Utility Solar

High DNI Utility Solar

CPV

2009 2010 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E

Utility Solar as % of all solar 22% 23% 25% 30% 38% 40% 43%

High DNI Utility as % of all Utility Solar 43% 57% 69% 68% 74% 70% 69%

HCPV as % of High DNI Utility Solar 1% 0% 2% 5% 5% 9% 13%

HCPV annual growth -55% -19% 1912% 211% 54% 105% 82%




GTM forecasts CPV to be “concentrated” in the US, Australia, and India

CPV Installations (MW-ac)

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E

Europe 3 8 3

Italy - - 0.3

Spain 3 8.1 3.2

Rest of Europe - 0.3 -

US - - 0.4

Arizona - - -

California - - -

Colorado - - -

Hawaii - - -

Nevada - - -

New Mexico - - -

Texas - - -

China - - -

India - - -

Rest of World - - -

Australia

South Africa

All Other Countries

Global 3 9 4

Growth (%) 169% -55%

Historical PV Demand (MW-ac) Demand Forecast (MW-ac)

Full Report contains detailed CPV forecasts through 2015- by country - by year




Q&A

Brett Prior, CFA

Senior Analyst

GTM Research

[email protected]

mailto:[email protected]

gtm research cpv webinar

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