Gtm poly-webinar-feb-2012

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<ul><li> 1. Polysilicon 2012-2016: Supply, Demand &amp; Implications for the Global PV Industry Webinar on February 9, 2012Moderator: Speaker:Carolyn Campbell Brett PriorResearch Associate Senior Analystcampbell@gtmresearch.com prior@gtmresearch.com</li></ul> <p> 2. Webinar logistics First, make sure the volume on your computer is turned up Webinar will be archived and available within 24 hours, you will receive an emailwhen it is availableTo enlarge theslides, please clickon the circulargreen button in thePlease enter your questions top right corner of at any point during thethe slides sub- webinar by typing them inwindow this box, then clickingSubmit By clicking on the green button (the Resource List), you canIf you are still having problems hearing (or 1) Download a copy of the slides viewing) this webinar, click on the yellow ?2) View the report webpage, and purchase the reportbutton at the bottom of the page 3. http://www.greentechmedia.com/research/report/polysilicon-2012-2016 200+ Pages120+ Company profiles 90+ Charts, Tables, and Illustrations Historical and forecast capacity, cost, and price from 2008-2016 4. 2. Comparison of Polysilicon Production 1. Polysilicon Overview 3. Polysilicon Supply and Demand4. Polysilicon Economics TechnologiesWhy should you care about the cost of polysilicon?Because lower poly prices and higher module efficiency will shave ~$0.20/W off the cost of a c-Si module in 2012 alone Numbers look too low? Here are the 3Q11 results: Forecasts included in the full report Trina $0.65/W non-silicon cost $0.37/W silicon cost $1.02/W total cost Best-in-class conversioncosts by step Wafer$0.17/W (GCL) Cell $0.17/W (LDK) Forecasts included Module $0.28/W (CSI)in the full report Non-Si $0.62/W 5. 2. Comparison of Polysilicon Production1. Polysilicon Overview 3. Polysilicon Supply and Demand 4. Polysilicon EconomicsTechnologiesSolar PV manufacturing 101 6. 2. Comparison of Polysilicon Production 1. Polysilicon Overview 3. Polysilicon Supply and Demand 4. Polysilicon Economics TechnologiesPolysilicon manufacturing 101 7. 2. Comparison of Polysilicon Production 1. Polysilicon Overview 3. Polysilicon Supply and Demand 4. Polysilicon Economics TechnologiesPolysilicon industry is concentrated, could be considered abalanced oligopoly HHI is measure ofindustryconcentration on ascale of 0 to 10,000(10,000 is amonopoly) A market with an HHIless than 1,000 isregarded ascompetitive Poly industry is ~640 8. 2. Comparison of Polysilicon Production1. Polysilicon Overview 3. Polysilicon Supply and Demand 4. Polysilicon EconomicsTechnologiesEven with 22 GW of c-Si PV installed in 2011, there still remains significantoversupply at all stages of the value chain 9. 2. Comparison of Polysilicon Production 1. Polysilicon Overview 3. Polysilicon Supply and Demand 4. Polysilicon Economics TechnologiesChina, the US, and Korea are the 3 largest producers of polysilicon 10. 2. Comparison of Polysilicon Production 1. Polysilicon Overview 3. Polysilicon Supply and Demand 4. Polysilicon Economics TechnologiesCosts that vary by technology include energy (~13%), and depreciation &amp;interest (~48%) 11. 2. Comparison of Polysilicon Production 1. Polysilicon Overview 3. Polysilicon Supply and Demand 4. Polysilicon Economics TechnologiesEnergy use matters, and in this category FBR and UMG win 12. 2. Comparison of Polysilicon Production 1. Polysilicon Overview 3. Polysilicon Supply and Demand 4. Polysilicon Economics TechnologiesBut Capex (which determines Depreciation &amp; Interest) is much more importantthan energy use, and on this metric Siemens HC and UMG take the cake 13. 2. Comparison of Polysilicon Production 1. Polysilicon Overview 3. Polysilicon Supply and Demand 4. Polysilicon Economics TechnologiesLower purity poly sells at a 10-30% discount to higher purity poly 14. 2. Comparison of Polysilicon Production 1. Polysilicon Overview 3. Polysilicon Supply and Demand 4. Polysilicon Economics TechnologiesExcluding Depreciation &amp; Interest, FBR is the cost leader 15. 2. Comparison of Polysilicon Production 1. Polysilicon Overview 3. Polysilicon Supply and Demand 4. Polysilicon Economics TechnologiesBut, when depreciation &amp; interest are included, Siemens HC is the lowestcost option 16. 2. Comparison of Polysilicon Production 1. Polysilicon Overview 3. Polysilicon Supply and Demand 4. Polysilicon Economics TechnologiesAnd on the most important metric, profit, Siemens HC again takes the gold 17. 2. Comparison of Polysilicon Production 1. Polysilicon Overview 3. Polysilicon Supply and Demand 4. Polysilicon Economics TechnologiesHistorically, capacity has remained close to total demand 18. 2. Comparison of Polysilicon Production 1. Polysilicon Overview 3. Polysilicon Supply and Demand 4. Polysilicon Economics TechnologiesBut in the last 4 years, capacity growth has outstripped demand growth, andthis imbalance may get worse before it gets better 19. 2. Comparison of Polysilicon Production 1. Polysilicon Overview 3. Polysilicon Supply and Demand 4. Polysilicon Economics TechnologiesProfit margins are key to understanding where pricing is headed 20. 2. Comparison of Polysilicon Production 1. Polysilicon Overview 3. Polysilicon Supply and Demand 4. Polysilicon Economics TechnologiesSpot prices are driven by cash costs, whereas contract prices have afloor set by total costs 21. 2. Comparison of Polysilicon Production 1. Polysilicon Overview3. Polysilicon Supply and Demand 4. Polysilicon EconomicsTechnologiesSince 2009, cash costs for poly have been reduced from ~$40/kg to</p>