gti breakfast news 24 november 2016 - the class of 2017

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“The class of 2017”

The Anthologist24 November


Simon RogersDirector, GTI

WELCOME


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Today’s agenda: “The class of 2017”Welcome & trendence UK research updateSimon Rogers, Director, GTI The Economic UpdateDeclan Curry, Broadcaster, Business & Economics journalistHow to get the best out of the class of 2017Stephen Isherwood, Chief Executive, AGRPride and prejudice: shifting mindsets in an age of uncertaintyGraeme Wright, Strategy Director, Havas PeopleThe millennials of 2017Toby Young, Journalist, Author & Co – founder of the West London Free School


Our click throughs per employer are

Up 43% YOY

Engineering click throughs

up 40% YOY

IT click throughs

up 122% YOY

Market share up over last quarter


…60 secondupdate


&


A*AA Law Students

50%2012

18%2016


Declan CurryBroadcaster, Business and Economics Journalist

THE ECONOMIC UPDATE


UK: 2016The Brexit recession that never happened ...• Economic growth stronger than expected• More people in work • Strong consumer but weak biz investment• Sharp fall in pound makes imports dearer• Government deficit still enormous


UK: 2017 ? • Growth: already slowing, eases further• Price rises may overtake wages

- makes people feel poorer in real life• Govt increases infrastructure spending;

eases welfare squeeze = higher deficit• Interest rates low, inch towards increase


GLOBAL: 2017 • Trump vs Congress• Cheap money vs Govt spending• USA slowdown ? • China: permanently lower growth• France: Presidential election - could EU survive Le Pen & Fr-exit ?


UK GROWTHEconomic growth lower, but stronger than expected post-Brexit vote:• Q3 2016: +0.5% q/q• Q2 2016: +0.7% q/qGDP up 15 quarters in a rowEconomy 8% stronger than before c. crunch


GROWTH FORECASTSEconomists expect slowdown next year:• Q2 2016 ACTUAL: +2.1% y/y• Q3 2016 ACTUAL: +2.3% y/y• FY 2016 HMT FCST: +2.0% y/y• FY 2017 HMT FCST: +1/1% y/y(HMT compiled avg of independent fcasts)


PRODUCTIVITYStagnant; key for higher living standards … • Q3 2016: +0.4%

y/y• Q2 2016: +0.4%

y/yBefore crash, annual increase was +2.0%UK behind Germany, USA, France, Italy.2015 figs: UK 18 %points below G7 average


INFLATIONA surprising slowdown in rising prices:• Oct 2016: +0.9%

y/y• Sept 2016: +1.0%

y/yPrices were expected to rise faster …The “Marmite effect” after Brexit …Falling pound increases costs of imports...


STERLINGPound down sharply since Brexit vote … • £1 = €1.12 (avg Oct 16 - down 18% y/y)• £1 = $1.23 (avg Oct 16 - down 20% y/y)• Basket of currencies: down 18.5% y/y OctPushing up import prices (+7%) & petrolFull impact felt in 2017 ?


WAGESWages still rising faster than prices:• Avg earnings: +2.3% y/y

(3mths to Aug 16, inc bonuses)• Private sector: +2.5% y/y

(3mthSept)• Public sector: +1.4% y/y

(3mthSept)Key to 2017 – will prices overtake wages?


EMPLOYMENTHighest rate of employment on record:• July-Sept 16: 31.80m people in work• UP 461,000 from previous year• Employment rate = 74.5% UP 0.7

%ptsRise in men, women, full-time & part-timeFall in temps & agency workers


YOUTH EMPLOYMENTFewer young people in work:

• Jul-Sept 16: 3.91m 16-24 yr olds in work

• DOWN 65,000 from previous year• Rate = 54.4% DOWN 0.3 %pts


YOUTH UNEMPLOYMENT… but also fewer young people out of work

• Jul-Sept 16: 591,000 16-24 yr olds (ILO)• DOWN 33,000 on previous year• Rate = 13.1%, DOWN 0.6%pts y/y


UNEMPLOYMENTContinues to fall …• Jul-Sept 16: 1.60m people unemployed• DOWN 146,000 on previous year• Rate = 4.8%, DOWN 0.5%pts y/yFewer men & women unemployedTotal was 2.5m in Jul-Sept 2013


RETAIL SALESStill underpinning overall economic growth • Aug-Oct 16: +4.5%

y/y• Total sales Oct 16: £7.7bn• Total Internet Oct 16: £1.0bnInternet sales up 26.8% on previous year¾ of Internet sales from online-only retailer


HOUSING MARKETGrowing after initial Brexit shock … • UK House Price Index: +7.7% Sept 16

y/y• Mortgage Approvals: 62,932 Sept

16DOWN 9.6% on previous year;

UK• Housebuilding Starts: 36,400 Q2

2106UP 6% on Q2 in 2015; England

only


HOUSEHOLD DEBTRising gradually over the last year … • Debt = 142% of gr. disp. income (Q2 16)More people going bust:• 24,251 insolvencies Eng & Wales (Q3 16)• UP 19.3% from previous year• 2,424 in Scotland (Q3); UP 8.5% y/y


GOVERNMENT DEBT• Deficit: £76bn

2015 (actual) (new borrowing) £56bn 2016 (fcst)• Debt:

£1.60 TN 2015 (act) (accumulated debt) £1.64 TN 2016 (fcst)More borrowing if govt increases spend on infrastructure and eases welfare squeeze?


SERVICESRebounded after immediate Brexit shock:• Output (Aug 16): +0.2% m/m

+3.2% y/y• Markit/CIPS PMI: 54.5 (best since

Jan)80% of UK economy; includes retail, leisure, finance, professions, govt admin & culture


MANUFACTURINGManufacturing output up 3 months in a row:Post-Brexit fall in sterling helping exporters? • Output: +0.6%

m/m Sept 16

+0.2% y/y Sept 16• Markit/CIPS PMI: 54.3 (Oct 16) … 10% of UK economy; 8% of jobs


TRADESlight improvement in trade gapStill buy far more than we sell; most with EU• Q3 16 trade deficit: £11.0bn• Q2 16 trade deficit: £12.7bn• Q2 16 current acc: -£28.7bn vs -27bn Q1Already record deficit in foreign income 2015


MARKETS (Figures at 17 Nov 2016. Source: FT)

• FTSE 100:6794.71, +9% y/y

- Brexit effect? 2nd highest price on 10 Oct • Brent Crude oil: $47.01,

+17% y/y - can OPEC deliver production cuts? (no)• Gold:

$1,226.75 : -4% y/y


UK MONETARY POLICY• Rates, QE unchanged at 3 Nov meeting• BoE forecasts inflation above 2% in 2017

- will ignore; says temporary• Cut interest rates to 0.25% after EU ref• Boosted QE by £70bn; TOTAL £445bn


GLOBAL MONETARYEurozone:• Negative rates in Eurozone since Mar ‘16• + €80bn QE per monthUSA:• Rose 0.25% in Dec 15, first rise since ‘06• WATCH meeting on 13-14 Dec


GLOBAL GROWTHUK stronger than Europe; USA surging• USA:

+0.7% q/q• UK: +0.5%

q/q• Eurozone: +0.3%

q/q• France: +0.2%

q/qNB Slow and steady recovery in Eurozone


GLOBAL INFLATIONPrices falling in six European nations …… wrong type of inflation• UK: +0.9%

(Oct 16)• USA:

+0.8% (Sept 16)• Germany: +0.7% (Oct

16)• Bulgaria (+Cyprus): -0.1% (Oct 16)


Stephen IsherwoodChief Executive, AGR

HOW TO GET THE BEST OUT OF THE CLASS OF 2017


We spend at least £82 million hiring graduates

£3.4k per hire

ConstructionRetail

Engineering or industrialPublic Sector

IT & TelecommunicationsAccountancy or professional services

Banking or financial servicesEnergy, water or utility company

FMCGLaw

Overall excl. Law firms

£764£800£1,219£1,258

£1,617£1,793£1,810

£2,393£2,813

£5,195£1,722

£532£1,777£812

£2,001£543

£1,070£2,833

£2,836£1,976

£1,516£1,661

Attraction & Marketing Selection & Assessment


Retail sector£920

Engineering or industrial company

£1,325

Public sector£1,364

Energy, water or utility company

£6,000

Banking or financial services

£5,158

Construction firm or consultancy

£2,817

FMCG sector£3,125

IT & Telecoms£1,538

And millions more to develop them


Because there is still a skills gap

Managing up

Dealing with conflict

Negotiating/influencing

Commercial awareness

Business communication

Self-awareness

Problem-solving

Interpersonal skills

Teamwork

50%

71%

92%

79%

66%

86%

69%

88%

79%

4%

10%

11%

15%

20%

29%

63%

68%

82%

Share of graduate intakes who have this skill

Share of employers training hires on this skill


68 applications per vacancy


Graeme WrightStrategy Director, Havas People

PRIDE AND PREJUDICE: SHIFTING MINDSETS IN AN AGE OF UNCERTAINTY


49


50

I am proud of my country


51

It’s not an outwardly directed nationalism that puts one’s country above all others so much as it’s a recognition of the elements that make one’s country and culture worth celebrating—and protecting. To a large extent, it’s a patriotism steeped in the past—in history, in bygone glories, in deep-rooted traditions.


52

neopatriotism


53


54

National identity: The new cool


55

What makes you proud


56

Implications - End of the great Mingle

Globally Segmentation is key

Locally celebrate your national identity


57

Collaborative Democracy


58


59


60

Implications

“Honesty and transparency are valuable currencies in an age of cynicism and suspicion. That lesson applies to politicians and brands alike.”


61

CCTV and Xenophobia

“In these times of fear, what was oncea plot element in dystopian fiction isbeing seen as a plausible solution.”


62

Which of these measures would you support to increase your national security?

only four countries—the US, the Netherlands, Singapore, and Laos—had agreement levels below 25 % this issue


63

Implications

Brands should focus on trust and transparency & not be shy as to how they contribute to the national interest


64

In pursuit of happiness


65


66


67


68

The Search for happinessWe expect the state to use our tax monies to provide for our health, our education, and our physical and economic security. And we increasingly look to businesses and brands to provide some of the important “extras” that make life better


69

Implications

Link people to the right job

Celebrate success

Find the meaning in any career

Make work/life balance a given

CSR


70

UK based students - Do you believe


71

Do you agree a person who is not cultured will never be truly successful?

Do you feel Democracy is the best form of government

I am willing to give up some personal liberty in order to feel safer


72

Three key words

TRUST TRANSPARENCY

CARE


The power in any relationship resides with the person who cares less…

But power isn’t happiness, and I think that maybe happiness comes from caring more about people rather than less

http://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&docid=payN8k3oY4gHPM&tbnid=jVZ9U2InuCkrCM:&ved=0CAUQjRw&url=http://www.moviexclusive.com/detail.php?c=73&desc=M&p=1690&t=magic-mike-2012_1690&ei=7NjoU6WwNci70QWHx4CICA&bvm=bv.72676100,d.d2k&psig=AFQjCNEXu4eg3ViWYRjxCk3KTnh8lbyleA&ust=1407855144380349


Toby YoungJournalist, Author & Co – founder of the West London Free School

THE MILLENNIALS OF 2017


Thank you

gti breakfast news 24 november 2016 - the class of 2017

Recruiting & HR