growth of real gdp in austria · 1 preliminary 2 bank austria forecast 3 national definition growth...

No. 12013

KeyEconomicIndicators

Bank Austria Economics& Market Analysis Austria

Key Economic IndicatorsIssue 1/2013

I Key Economoc Indicators, 1/20132

Economic Forecasts for AustriaPercentage change over previous year 2011 20121 20132 20142

GDP (real) 2.7 0.5 0.9 1.5GDP (nominal) 5.0 2.6 2.6 3.5Private consumption (real) 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.8Investment in machinery & equipment (real) 12.1 0.2 1.4 4.2Investment in construction (real) 4.4 0.9 0.8 1.3Exports of goods & services (real) 7.2 1.9 3.3 4.5Imports of goods & services (real) 7.2 1.7 3.5 4.3Consumer prices 3.3 2.4 2.2 1.9

Public sector: Budget (in % of GDP) –2.5 –3.2 –2.3 –1.7 Debt (in % of GDP) 72.4 75.2 75.9 75.5Unemployment rate in % (Eurostat) 4.2 4.4 4.5 4.4Unemployment rate in % (Statistik Austria)3 6.7 7.0 7.3 7.1

1 Preliminary 2 Bank Austria forecast 3 National definition

Growth of Real GDP in AustriaPercentage change over previous year, 1994 – 20141

1 Calculated in accordance with ESA 95. 2012 preliminary, 2013 – 2014 Bank Austria forecast

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Key Economic Indicators, 1/2013 I 3

Austria‘s Gross Domestic Product (GDP)1

In EUR billion, gross value added (at current prices) 2008 2009 2010 2011Agriculture, forestry & fishing 4.1 3.4 3.9 4.5Mining & quarrying; manufacturing 50.1 45.5 48.8 52.3Electricity, water supply; sewerage & waste management 8.1 8.6 8.2 9.1Construction 18.3 17.5 17.4 18.5Wholesale & retail trade 33.0 32.2 33.7 34.9Transportation 12.3 11.8 11.8 12.8Accomodation & food service activities 12.1 12.3 12.6 13.4Information & communication 8.4 8.2 8.3 8.3Financial & insurance activities 13.9 12.1 13.1 13.9Real estate activities 23.0 23.8 24.8 26.1Other administrative & support service activities 22.8 22.1 23.1 24.0Public administration 14.5 15.1 15.4 15.6Education; human health & social work activities 28.8 29.9 30.6 31.7Other service activities 7.0 7.3 7.5 7.6Taxes on products 32.0 32.0 32.8 34.3Subsidies on products –5.4 –5.5 –5.5 –6.1GDP (nominal)2 282.7 276.2 286.4 300.7

Austria‘s Gross Domestic Product (GDP)1

In EUR billion, expenditures (at current prices) 2008 2009 2010 2011Private consumption 149.2 151.4 156.8 163.6Public consumption 52.8 54.6 55.5 56.6Gross fixed capital formation 64.5 58.1 61.9 69.8Statistical discrepancy 0.0 –0.3 0.2 0.7Total domestic demand 266.5 263.7 274.4 290.7plus exports of goods & services 167.6 138.3 155.0 172.3less imports of goods & services 151.3 125.8 142.9 162.3GDP (nominal)2 282.7 276.2 286.4 300.71 Economic data are computed in accordance with the “European System of Integrated Economic Accounts”

(ESA 95)2 Differences may result through rounding off figures



Key Indicators for AustriaSelected key economic indicators 2008 2009 2010 2011in eurosPer capita GDP (nominal) 33,916 33,019 34,143 35,709GDP per employed person (nominal) 66,676 65,721 67,687 69,851GDP per employed person (real), % change over previous year –0.7 –2.9 1.5 1.2Per capita income per employed person1 gross 3,087 3,154 3,199 3,271 net 2,137 2,222 2,248 2,289Share in percentEmployment rate2 72.1 71.6 71.7 72.1Consumption ratio3 52.8 54.8 54.7 54.4Investment ratio4 22.8 21.0 21.6 23.2Import ratio (narrower sense)5 43.2 36.1 40.0 43.8Import ratio (broader sense)6 53.5 45.6 49.9 54.0Export ratio (narrower sense)7 42.9 35.1 38.9 41.5Export ratio (broader sense)8 59.3 50.1 54.1 57.3Current account balance ratio9 4.9 2.7 3.4 0.6Health ratio10 9.1 9.6 9.4 —Tax & SIC ratio11 44.2 44.1 43.6 43.7Savings ratio12 11.5 11.2 9.1 7.4Wage ratio13 65.0 69.0 67.3 65.7Research ratio14 2.7 2.7 2.8 2.7Unemployment rate (Eurostat) 3.8 4.8 4.4 4.2

1 Full-time equivalents, one-twelfth of annual income 2 Share of employed persons aged 15 to 64 in the total population of the same age group 3 Private consumption as a % of GDP 4 Gross fixed capital formation as a % of GDP 5 Imports of goods as a % of GDP 6 Imports of goods and services as a % of GDP 7 Exports of goods as a % of GDP 8 Exports of goods and services as a % of GDP 9 Current account balances as a % of GDP 10 Health expenditure pursuant to the System of Health Accounts (OECD) as a % of GDP 11 Share of tax revenues & actual social insurance contributions (SICs) plus imputed SICs less unrecoverable

taxes and SICs as % of GDP 12 Private household savings as a % of disposable income and the increase in claims to company pensions.

According to ESA 79 before 1995 13 Share of employee compensation as % of national income minus levies on production less subsidies, adjusted

for the shifts of the share of salaried employees to gainfully active persons compared to the basis year 1976 14 Expenditure on scientific research and experimental development as a % of GDP


Austria‘s Labour MarketAnnual average or quarterly figures, in thousands Employees1,2 Vacant jobs2 Unemployed2,3 Jobless rate2,3

2005 3,110.4 26.2 252.7 7.3%2006 3,161.9 32.9 239.2 6.8%2007 3,227.4 38.2 222.2 6.2%2008 3,283.0 37.5 212.3 5.9%2009 3,234.5 27.2 260.3 7.2%2010 3,260.0 31.0 250.8 6.9%2011 3,323.3 32.3 246.7 6.7%2010 Q 4 3,281.1 33.4 246.3 6.8%2011 Q 1 3,300.4 33.9 244.1 6.7% Q 2 3,317.7 33.3 244.7 6.7% Q 3 3,330.3 31.2 248.8 6.8% Q 4 3,344.9 30.8 252.6 6.8%2012 Q 1 3,358.9 30.0 254.8 6.9% Q 2 3,367.4 29.6 259.2 7.0% Q 3 3,376.0 29.5 264.8 7.1%

1 Without maternity leave, education and military service 2 Seasonally adjusted on quarterly basis3 Pursuant to national criteria

Production and Retail for AustriaAnnual or quarterly averages, change over previous year Industrial production Construction output (nom.) Retail (nom.)2005 4.4 4.5 2.52006 7.7 14.5 2.32007 6.3 6.9 2.92008 0.9 12.4 3.52009 –9.4 –7.5 1.22010 4.5 –4.6 4.12011 5.8 2.7 2.52011 Q 1 9.2 –5.2 2.0 Q 2 7.2 4.6 4.0 Q 3 4.5 1.3 2.0 Q 4 2.4 6.9 2.12012 Q 1 0.8 8.2 4.9 Q 2 1.8 5.4 1.5 Q 3 3.1 7.3 0.9



Austria‘s Foreign TradeAnnual or quarterly averages Imports in Change over Exports in Change over EUR million previous year EUR million previous year2004 91,094 12.5 89,848 13.9%2005 96,499 5.9 94,705 5.4%2006 104,201 8.0 103,742 9.5%2007 114,255 9.6 114,680 10.5%2008 119,568 4.7 117,525 2.5%2009 97,574 –18.4 93,739 –20.2%2010 113,652 16.5 109,373 16.7%2011 131,008 15.3 121,774 11.3%2011 Q 1 32,029 26.5 29,787 23.5% Q 2 32,541 15.2 30,785 12.0% Q 3 33,071 13.2 30,387 8.1% Q 4 33,367 8.1 30,815 4.0%2012 Q 1 33,029 3.1 30,702 3.1% Q 2 32,487 –0.2 30,899 0.4% Q 3 32,538 –1.6 30,806 1.4%

Tourism in AustriaOvernight stays in 1,000 Change over thereof thereof Overnight stays previous year Austrians foreigners2004 117,243 –0.7% 31,326 85,9172005 119,242 1.8% 31,501 87,7412006 119,361 0.1% 32,121 87,2402007 121,451 1.8% 33,008 88,4432008 126,719 4.3% 33,879 92,8402009 124,307 –1.9% 34,443 89,8642010 124,881 0.5% 35,024 89,8572011 126,003 0.9% 35,297 90,7062011 Q 1 42,244 –0.3% 8,803 33,440 Q 2 21,927 1.9% 7,870 14,057 Q 3 41,963 1.6% 12,223 29,739 Q 4 19,868 0.9% 6,398 13,4692012 Q 1 43,508 3.0% 9,098 34,410 Q 2 23,524 7.3% 8,008 15,516 Q 3 42,959 2.4% 12,264 30,694


Austria‘s Foreign Trade 2012Imports: EUR 132.2 billion (estimation)

Austria‘s Foreign Trade 2012Exports: EUR 123.6 billion (estimation)

Africa, Australia & Oceania

America

Asia

Eastern Europe without EU members

EFTA & other Europeancountries

Other EU 27 countries (3)

EU CEE, without Euro (7)

Euro area (17)

Africa, Australia & Oceania

America

Asia

Eastern Europe without EU members

EFTA & other Europeancountries

Other EU 27 countries (3)

EU CEE, without Euro (7)

Euro area (17)

57.5

9.6

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6.7

4.9

11.8

4.51.9

52.2

11.8

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6.9

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8.42.0



Real Gross Domestic ProductPercentage change over previous year

3-Month MoneyIn percent, monthly averages

1 Enlargement as per 01/01: 2007 Slovenia, 2008 Malta & Cyprus, 2009 Slovakia, 2011 Estonia 2 Preliminary 3 Forecast

1 Enlargement as per 01/01: 2007 Slovenia, 2008 Malta & Cyprus, 2009 Slovakia, 2011 Estonia

USA Germany Euro area1 Austria

USA UK Euro area1 Japan Switzerland

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Consumer PricesPercentage change over previous year

Secondary Market YieldsIn percent, 10-year government bonds

1 Based on the HICP 2 Enlargement as per 01/01: 2007 Slovenia, 2008 Malta & Cyprus, 2009 Slovakia, 2011 Estonia

USA Germany Austria Japan Switzerland

USA Germany1 Austria1 Japan Euro zone1,2

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Share Price Indices1 January 2000 = 100

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Euro Stoxx 50

Dow Jones Industrial

CECE (EUR)

Nikkei 225

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International Overview2011 GDP nom. GDP per Exports Imports Inhabitants in EUR capita in in EUR in EUR in million billion EUR billion1 billion1

EU 272 502.4 12,649.8 25.200 1,558.9 1,721.6EU 152 325.3 11,652.7 35.800 1,725.4 1,837.2Euro 172 332.0 9,420.6 28.400 1,735.4 1,747.3EU-CEE 10 101.7 972.9 9.600 520.6 537.9Austria 8.4 300.7 35.700 121.8 131.0Belgium 11.0 369.8 33.600 342.4 331.5Bulgaria 7.4 38.5 5.200 20.2 23.3Czech Republic 10.5 156.2 14.900 116.6 108.9Denmark 5.6 240.5 43.200 81.5 70.3Finland 5.4 189.4 35.200 56.7 60.3France 65.0 1,996.6 30.700 428.2 512.8Germany 81.8 2,592.6 31.700 1,057.7 900.8Hungary 10.0 99.8 10.000 80.6 73.7Ireland 4.6 159.0 35.000 91.2 47.8Italy 60.6 1,578.7 26.000 375.9 400.5Netherlands 16.7 602.0 36.100 474.9 430.1Poland 38.5 369.7 9.600 134.6 149.2Romania 21.4 136.5 6.400 45.0 54.8Russia 142.9 1,336.0 9.300 423.5 262.7Slovakia 5.4 69.1 12.800 57.0 55.5Slovenia 2.1 36.2 17.600 25.0 25.5Spain 46.2 1,063.4 23.000 220.1 268.5Sweden 9.4 387.6 41.200 134.5 126.4Switzerland 7.9 476.1 60.500 160.3 140.9Turkey 73.7 555.2 7.500 97.0 173.1Ukraine 45.6 118.4 2.600 55.5 67.0United Kingdom 62.5 1,750.4 28.000 361.3 484.5Brazil 196.9 1,779.0 9.000 183.9 170.2Canada 34.4 1,280.1 37.300 325.0 332.4USA 313.2 10,830.2 34.600 1,063.5 1,627.8China 1,363.7 5,267.3 3.900 1,363.8 1,252.5India 1,232.8 1,322.2 1.100 218.8 332.4Japan 126.8 4,224.9 33.300 590.9 614.2South Korea 48.7 802.2 16.500 398.9 376.71 Commodity trade 2 Commodity trade with countries outside the respective area



Real Gross Domestic ProductPercentage change over previous year 2009 2010 2011 20121 20132 20142

EU 27 –4.3 2.1 1.5 –0.3 0.4 1.6EU 15 –4.3 2.1 1.4 –0.4 0.3 1.5Euro area3 –4.4 2.0 1.4 –0.4 0.1 1.4EU-CEE 10 –3.6 2.3 3.2 1.2 1.8 2.8Austria –3.8 2.1 2.7 0.5 0.9 1.5Belgium –2.8 2.4 1.8 –0.2 0.7 1.6Bulgaria –5.5 0.4 1.7 0.6 1.7 2.8Czech Republic –4.5 2.6 1.7 –1.1 0.7 2.2Denmark –5.7 1.6 1.1 0.6 1.6 1.3Finland –8.5 3.3 2.7 0.1 0.8 1.3France –2.6 1.4 1.7 0.1 0.5 1.3Germany –5.1 3.6 3.1 1.0 1.1 1.5Hungary –6.8 1.3 1.6 –1.3 0.2 0.7Ireland –5.5 –0.8 1.4 0.4 1.1 2.2Italy –5.2 1.2 0.6 –2.1 –0.7 0.7Netherlands –3.7 1.6 1.0 –0.3 0.3 1.4Poland 1.6 3.9 4.3 2.1 1.7 2.3 Romania –6.6 –1.7 2.5 0.2 1.3 1.8 Russia –7.8 4.3 4.3 3.6 3.6 3.8Slovakia –4.9 4.4 3.2 2.3 1.6 2.9Slovenia –7.8 1.2 0.6 –2.2 –1.3 0.9Spain –3.7 –0.1 0.4 –1.4 –1.4 0.4Sweden –5.0 6.6 3.7 1.1 1.9 2.5Switzerland –1.9 2.7 1.9 1.0 1.2 1.7Turkey –4.8 9.2 8.5 2.7 3.4 3.9Ukraine –14.8 4.1 5.2 0.4 1.0 2.9United Kingdom –4.0 1.8 0.9 –0.1 0.9 1.4Brazil –0.3 7.5 2.7 1.4 4.3 4.8Canada –2.8 3.2 2.6 2.2 2.3 3.3USA –3.1 2.4 1.8 2.2 2.1 2.6China 9.2 10.5 9.3 7.5 8.1 9.0India 5.9 10.1 6.8 4.9 6.0 6.4Japan –5.5 4.0 –0.7 1.6 0.7 1.0South Korea 0.3 6.3 3.6 2.2 3.3 5.0

1 Preliminary 2 Forecast 3 Enlargement as per 01/01: 2007 Slovenia, 2008 Malta & Cyprus, 2009 Slovakia, 2011 Estonia


Consumer PricesPercentage change over previous year 2009 2010 2011 20121 20132 20142

EU 27 1.0 2.1 3.1 2.7 2.0 1.8EU 154 0.6 1.9 2.9 2.5 2.0 1.7Euro area3,4 0.3 1.6 2.7 2.5 2.0 1.8EU-CEE 10 3.1 2.9 4.0 3.7 3.3 3.1Austria3 0.4 1.7 3.6 2.5 2.2 1.9Belgium3 0.0 2.3 3.5 2.6 1.8 1.6Bulgaria 2.8 2.4 4.2 3.0 2.6 2.9Czech Republic 1.0 1.5 1.9 3.4 2.7 2.2Denmark3 1.1 2.2 2.7 2.4 2.0 1.7Finland3 1.6 1.7 3.3 3.0 2.5 2.2France3 0.1 1.7 2.3 2.3 1.7 1.7Germany3 0.2 1.2 2.5 2.1 1.9 1.8Hungary 4.2 4.9 3.9 5.8 5.5 4.1Ireland3 –1.7 –1.6 1.2 2.0 1.3 1.4Italy3 0.8 1.6 2.9 3.3 2.0 1.7Netherlands3 1.0 0.9 2.5 2.8 2.4 1.6Poland 3.5 2.6 4.3 3.7 2.2 2.4 Romania 5.6 6.1 5.8 3.4 4.5 3.5Russia 11.7 6.9 8.6 5.1 6.0 5.1Slovakia 1.6 1.0 3.9 3.7 3.0 3.1Slovenia 0.9 2.1 2.1 2.8 2.3 1.7Spain3 –0.2 2.0 3.1 2.5 2.1 1.3Sweden 1.9 1.9 1.4 1.0 1.3 1.8Switzerland –0.5 0.7 0.2 –0.6 0.3 0.8Turkey 6.3 8.6 6.5 9.0 6.7 6.2Ukraine 15.9 9.4 8.0 0.8 7.4 9.3United Kingdom 2.2 3.3 4.5 2.9 2.7 2.3Brazil 4.8 5.2 6.7 5.2 5.9 5.1Canada 0.4 1.7 3.0 1.5 1.9 2.1USA –0.3 1.6 3.1 2.2 2.3 2.5China –0.7 3.3 5.4 2.7 3.1 3.5India 11.0 12.0 8.5 9.6 8.3 4.5Japan –1.4 –0.7 –0.3 0.0 –0.5 1.3South Korea 2.7 2.9 4.1 2.1 2.5 2.7

1 Preliminary 2 Forecast 3 Harmonised Consumer Price Index 4 Enlargement as per 01/01: 2007 Slovenia, 2008 Malta & Cyprus, 2009 Slovakia, 2011 Estonia



Budget Deficit/SurplusIn percent of GDP 2009 2010 2011 20121 20132 20142

Austria –4.1 –4.5 –2.5 –3.2 –2.3 –1.7Germany –3.0 –3.3 –1.0 0.1 0.0 0.1France –7.5 –7.0 –5.2 –4.5 –3.5 –3.1United Kingdom –11.3 –10.2 –8.2 –6.6 –6.9 –6.1Italy –5.4 –4.6 –3.9 –2.8 –1.8 –1.6Russia –12.4 –6.6 0.8 0.0 –1.0 –0.5USA –10.2 –9.0 –8.7 –8.5 –7.5 –6.0Japan –8.7 –8.1 –10.3 –9.9 –10.1 –8.2

Current Account BalancesIn percent of GDP 2009 2010 2011 20121 20132 20142

Austria 2.7 3.4 0.6 1.5 1.6 1.8Germany — — — — — —France –1.5 –1.7 –2.2 –2.0 –1.9 –1.8United Kingdom –1.7 –3.2 –1.9 –3.4 –2.4 –2.0Italy –1.9 –3.5 –3.1 –1.6 –1.1 –1.0Russia 4.1 5.1 6.0 4.5 1.6 0.5USA –2.7 –3.2 –3.1 –3.1 –3.1 –3.1Japan 2.8 3.6 2.0 1.6 2.3 2.5

Unemployment RatesIn percent, annual averages 2009 2010 2011 20121 20132 20142

Austria 4.8 4.4 4.2 4.4 4.5 4.4Germany 8.1 7.7 7.1 6.8 7.0 6.8France 9.5 9.8 9.6 10.2 10.5 10.4United Kingdom 7.8 7.9 8.4 8.0 8.2 8.2Italy 7.8 8.4 8.4 10.6 11.5 11.7Russia 8.3 7.5 6.6 5.8 5.7 5.7USA 9.3 9.6 9.0 8.2 8.1 7.7Japan 5.1 5.1 4.6 4.5 4.4 4.5

1 Preliminary 2 Forecast


Mean Exchange Rate of the Euro1

In currency units for one euro, annual or quarterly averages USD JPY GBP CHF CNY RUB2006 1.26 146.0 0.68 1.57 10.01 34.112007 1.37 161.3 0.68 1.64 10.42 35.022008 1.47 152.5 0.80 1.59 10.22 36.422009 1.39 130.3 0.89 1.51 9.53 44.142010 1.33 116.2 0.86 1.38 8.97 40.262011 1.39 111.0 0.87 1.23 9.00 40.882011 Q 4 1.35 104.2 0.86 1.23 8.57 42.082012 Q 1 1.31 104.0 0.83 1.21 8.27 39.55 Q 2 1.28 102.7 0.81 1.20 8.11 39.85 Q 3 1.25 98.4 0.79 1.20 7.95 39.99 PLN CZK HUF HRK SEK TRY2006 3.90 28.34 264.3 7.32 9.25 1.812007 3.78 27.77 251.4 7.34 9.25 1.792008 3.51 24.95 251.5 7.22 9.62 1.912009 4.33 26.44 280.3 7.34 10.62 2.162010 3.99 25.28 275.5 7.29 9.54 2.002011 4.12 24.59 279.4 7.44 9.03 2.342011 Q 4 4.42 25.27 303.4 7.50 9.09 2.482012 Q 1 4.23 25.08 296.8 7.56 8.85 2.36 Q 2 4.26 25.25 294.0 7.53 8.91 2.32 Q 3 4.14 25.07 283.1 7.47 8.44 2.26

1 Reference rates of the ECB, national statistics

Holiday EuroOn holiday, 100 euros are worth (December 2012)

60708090100110120130140

TRCRO H USA GR GBP ESLO F I CA CHD A


”Key Economic Indicators“ provides information on the most recent developments of selected economic indicators.Economic analyses and forecasts are available on Bank Austria‘s website:

www.bankaustria.atunder ”Financial Markets & Analysis“in the section ”Economic Research Austria“or directly athttp://economicresearch-e.bankaustria.at

Published by:UniCredit Bank Austria AG, 1010 Vienna, Schottengasse 6-8

Edited by Economics & Market Analysis AustriaKurt Fesselhofer, tel. +43 (0)5 05 05/41953Petra Jellen, tel. +43 (0)5 05 05/41952E-mail: [email protected]

Production: Corporate Culture

Printed by Gutenberg Druck GmbH, Wr. NeustadtGraphics: Hans LjungPhoto: francovolpato – Fotolia.com

Sources: Bank Austria, Consensus Forecast, Datastream, Eurostat, EZB, OECD, OeNB, Statistik Austria, UniCredit Research, WIFO, WTO

Closing date: 21 December 2012

Despite careful research and the use of reliable sources, Bank Austria cannot assume liability for the completeness or accuracy of the information given herein.

growth of real gdp in austria · 1 preliminary 2 bank austria forecast 3 national definition growth...

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