GDP INSIGHTS1Q2016 TRENDS

RECESSION WATCH

FRIDAY 4 JUNE

CONSUMPTIONPCE TRENDS

DRIVING US ECONOMY

Durable Goods Contracts

Hhld Services Slows

Non-Durables. Volatile

INVESTMENTGPDI TRENDS

STORMY WEATHER

2-Qtr Contraction

Inventories Down Lst 3-QTRS

Manufacturing Slowdown

2Q2016 Indicators showSigns of Improvement

IN CALMER WATERS

GOVERNMENTSPENDING TRENDS

FED SPEND STABLE

DEFENSE DOWN

STATE SPEND UP

Minimal Impact on GDPGrowth for a Few Years

NET EXPORTSTrade Deficit Trends

BOTH EXPORTS & IMPORTSARE CONTRACTING

Exports Down $10B

Net Softens Impact

Imports Up $7 Billion

REDUCES GDP BY 3%

GDPNow2Q2016 Trends

VOLATILE ECONOMYBUT IMPROVING

P U B L I S H I N GJ U N E 4 , 2 0 1 6 * * * K E I T H O U E L L E T T E

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