griggs - met office
TRANSCRIPT
114-11-2001 DJG12-I
From IPCC 2001 HadleyCentre
Climate Change
Coastal Zones in Sub-Saharan Africa
Natural History Museum and Royal Society
Dave GriggsDirector, Hadley Centre, Met Office
214-11-2001 DJG12-I
From IPCC 2001 HadleyCentre
Variation of the Earth’s surface for the past 140 years...
314-11-2001 DJG12-I
From IPCC 2001 HadleyCentre
Global mean surface temperatures have increased
414-11-2001 DJG12-I
From IPCC 2001 HadleyCentre
The Land and Oceans have warmed
514-11-2001 DJG12-I
From IPCC 2001 HadleyCentre
Precipitation patterns have changed
614-11-2001 DJG12-I
From IPCC 2001 HadleyCentre
Sea Levels have risen
714-11-2001 DJG12-I
From IPCC 2001 HadleyCentre
An increasing body of observations gives a collective picture of a warming world and other changes in the
climate system
Global-average surface temperature increased by about 0.6 ºC over 20th century
1990s warmest decade and 1998 warmest year in last 1000 years in Northern Hemisphere
Over last 50 years night-time minimum temperatures increased by about 0.2 ºC per decade
10% reduction in snow cover ice since late 1960s Reduction of about two weeks in annual duration of lake
and river ice over 20th century Widespread retreat of mountain glaciers during 20th
century
814-11-2001 DJG12-I
From IPCC 2001 HadleyCentre
Northern Hemisphere spring and summer sea-ice extent
decreased by 10-15% since 1950s
40% decline in late summer Arctic sea-ice thickness in recent decades
Global-average sea level has increased by 10-20 cm during 20th century
0.5-1% per decade increase in Northern Hemisphere mid-latitude precipitation during 20th century
2-4% increase in frequency of heavy precipitation events in Northern Hemisphere mid- and high-latitudes over latter half of 20th century
914-11-2001 DJG12-I
From IPCC 2001 HadleyCentre
GJJ99 3Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research
The greenhouse effect
SUNSome solar radiation isreflected by the earth’s
surface and the atmosphere
ATMOSPHERE
Solar radiationpasses through theclear atmosphere
EARTHMost solar radiation is absorbedby the surface, which warms
Some of the infraredradiation is absorbedand re-emitted by the
greenhouse gases.The effect of this is to
warm the surfaceand the loweratmosphere
Infrared radiationis emitted from theEarth’s surface
1014-11-2001 DJG12-I
From IPCC 2001 HadleyCentre
1114-11-2001 DJG12-I
From IPCC 2001 HadleyCentre
Human activities have changed the composition of the atmosphere since the pre- industrial era
1214-11-2001 DJG12-I
From IPCC 2001 HadleyCentre
19 levels in atmosphere
20 levelsin ocean
2.5lat 3.75
long
1.251.25
The HadleyCentre thirdcoupled model HadCM3
30km
-5km
1314-11-2001 DJG12-I
From IPCC 2001 HadleyCentre
THE CLIMATE SYSTEM
OCEAN
PrecipitationSea-ice
LAND
Ice- sheetssnow
Biomass
Clouds
Solarradiation
Terrestrialradiation
Greenhouse gases and aerosol
ATMOSPHEREThe Met.Office Hadley Centre
1414-11-2001 DJG12-I
From IPCC 2001 HadleyCentre
Atmosphere Atmosphere Atmosphere Atmosphere Atmosphere Atmosphere
Land surfaceLand surfaceLand surfaceLand surfaceLand surface
Ocean & sea-ice Ocean & sea-ice Ocean & sea-ice Ocean & sea-ice
Sulphateaerosol
Sulphateaerosol
Sulphateaerosol
Non-sulphateaerosol
Non-sulphateaerosol
Carbon cycle Carbon cycle
Atmosphericchemistry
Ocean & sea-icemodel
Sulphurcycle model
Non-sulphateaerosols
Carboncycle model
Land carboncycle model
Ocean carboncycle model
Atmosphericchemistry
Atmospheric
chemistry
Off-linemodeldevelopment
Strengthening coloursdenote improvementsin models
1975 1985 1992 1997
HADLEY CENTRE EARTH SYSTEM MODEL
1514-11-2001 DJG12-I
From IPCC 2001 HadleyCentre
Most of the observed warming in the past 50 years is attributable to human activities
1614-11-2001 DJG12-I
From IPCC 2001 HadleyCentre
Global mean temperature changes
1714-11-2001 DJG12-I
From IPCC 2001 HadleyCentre
Land areas are projected to warm more than the oceans with the greatest warming at high latitudes
Annual mean temperature change, 2071 to 2100 relative to 1990: Global Average in 2085 = 3.1oC
1814-11-2001 DJG12-I
From IPCC 2001 HadleyCentre
1914-11-2001 DJG12-I
From IPCC 2001 HadleyCentre
Global-average temperature and sea level are projected to rise under all scenarios
Global-average surface temperature projected to increase by 1.4 ºC to 5.8 ºC by 2100 Rate of warming likely unprecedented in at least last 10,000 years Land areas will warm more than the global average Global average precipitation will increase over 21st century Very likely to be more intense precipitation events Snow cover and sea-ice extent projected to decrease further Glaciers and icecaps projected to continue widespread retreat Global mean sea-level projected to increase by 9 cm to 88 cm by 2100
2014-11-2001 DJG12-I
From IPCC 2001 HadleyCentre
CO2 concentrations, temperature and sea level continue to rise long after emissions are reduced
2114-11-2001 DJG12-I
From IPCC 2001 HadleyCentre
More adverse than beneficial impacts on biological and socioeconomic systems are projected
2214-11-2001 DJG12-I
From IPCC 2001 HadleyCentre
World Population 6,056,528,577
The Challenge: Sustainable Management of an Ever-
Changing Planet
2314-11-2001 DJG12-I
From IPCC 2001 HadleyCentre
Increased risk of floods, potentially displacing tens of millions of people, due to sea level rise and heavy rainfall events, especially in Small Island States and low-lying deltaic areas. Bangladesh is projected to lose about 17% of its land area with a sea level rise of one meter - very difficult to adapt due to lack of adaptive capacity
projected
present
2414-11-2001 DJG12-I
From IPCC 2001 HadleyCentre
Food production needs to double to meet the needs of an additional 3 billion people in the next 30 years
Climate change is projected to decrease agricultural productivity in the tropics and sub-tropics for almost any amount of warming
2514-11-2001 DJG12-I
From IPCC 2001 HadleyCentre
Wood fuel is the only source of fuel for one third of the world’s population
Wood demand will double in the next 50 years
Forest management will become more difficult due to an increase in pests and fires
2614-11-2001 DJG12-I
From IPCC 2001 HadleyCentre
One third of the world’s population is now subject to water scarcity
Population facing water scarcity will more than double over the next 30 years
Climate change is projected to decrease water availability in many arid- and semi-arid regions
2714-11-2001 DJG12-I
From IPCC 2001 HadleyCentre
Climate change will exacerbate the loss of biodiversity
Estimated 10-15% of the world’s species could become extinct over the next 30 years
Biodiversity underlies all ecological goods and services
2814-11-2001 DJG12-I
From IPCC 2001 HadleyCentre
Food and Fiber ProductionProvision of Clean and Sufficient Water
Maintenance of BiodiversityMaintenance of Human Health
Storage and cycling of Carbon, Nitrogen, Phosphorus
Agricultural Lands
CoastalZones
ForestLands
FreshwaterSystems
Arid Lands & Grasslands
Climate change will affect the ability of ecological systems to provide a range of essential ecological goods and services
2914-11-2001 DJG12-I
From IPCC 2001 HadleyCentre
Developing countries are the most vulnerable to climate change
Impacts are worse - already more flood and drought prone and a large share of the economy is in climate sensitive sectors
Lower capacity to adapt because of a lack of financial, institutional and technological capacity and access to knowledge
Climate change is likely to impact disproportionately upon the poorest countries and the poorest persons within countries, exacerbating inequities in health status and access to adequate food, clean water and other resources.
Net market sector effects are expected to be negative in most developing countries
3014-11-2001 DJG12-I
From IPCC 2001 HadleyCentre
Projected concentrations of CO2 during the 21st century are two to four times the pre-industrial level
3114-11-2001 DJG12-I
From IPCC 2001 HadleyCentre
(BP 1950)
Projected (2100)
Current (2001)
CO
2 C
on
ce
ntr
ati
on
(p
pm
v)
Projected levels of atmospheric CO2 during the next 100 years would be higher than at anytime in the last 440,000 yrs
3214-11-2001 DJG12-I
From IPCC 2001 HadleyCentre
Projected Temperatures During the 21st Century Are Significantly Higher Than at Any Time During the Last 1000
Years