greenhouse gas emissions in europe: trends and...
TRANSCRIPT
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Greenhouse gas emissions in Europe:Greenhouse gas emissions in Europe: trends and projectionstrends and projections
François Dejean
Climate change and energyEuropean Environment Agency
Annual Meeting of the Climate Broadcasters Network – Europe
Monte-Carlo, 6 April 2008
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ContentsContents
1. Short background on EEA2. Short background on reporting of GHG
emissions3. Main GHG emission sources4. Progress to Kyoto targets in Europe5. What EU and countries do to reduce
emissions6. Main trends (past/projected) by sector
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European Environment AgencyEuropean Environment Agency
• The EU body dedicated to providing timely, targeted, relevant and reliable information on the environment
• To help the EU and member countries make informed decisions about improving the environment
• 32 members + collaborating countries
www.eea.europa.euMember countriesCollaborating countries
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Legal basis for reporting GHG Legal basis for reporting GHG emissions and national programmesemissions and national programmes
• UNFCCC and Kyoto Protocol• IPCC Guidelines• IPCC Good Practice Guidance and Uncertainty
Management• UNFCCC Guidelines on annual GHG inventories• UNFCCC common reporting format tables• National Communications to UNFCCC
• European Community• Council Decision 2004/280/EC concerning a
mechanism for monitoring Community greenhouse gas emissions and for implementing the Kyoto Protocol, and implementing provisions.
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EEA annual report on GHG inventoriesEEA annual report on GHG inventories 2006 report on Kyoto 2006 report on Kyoto assigned amountsassigned amounts
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EEA annual report on GHG trends and EEA annual report on GHG trends and projections in Europeprojections in Europe
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EnergyEnergy--related emissions cause 80% related emissions cause 80% of EU GHG emissionsof EU GHG emissions
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Kyoto targets in European countriesKyoto targets in European countries-350 -300 -250 -200 -150 -100 -50 0 50
EU-15 -8.0%
Germany -21.0%
United Kingdom -12.5%
Italy -6.5%
Denmark -21.0%
Netherlands -6.0%
Belgium -7.5%
Austria -13.0%
Luxembourg -28.0%
Finland 0.0%
France 0.0%
Sweden +4.0%
Ireland +13.0%
Portugal +27.0%
Greece +25.0%
Spain +15.0%
Poland -6.0%
Romania -8.0%
Czech Republic -8.0%
Bulgaria -8.0%
Hungary -6.0%
Slovakia -8.0%
Lithuania -8.0%
Estonia -8.0%
Latvia -8.0%
Slovenia -8.0%
Cyprus (no target)
Malta (no target)
Greenhouse gas emissions (Mt CO2 equivalent)
Kyoto commitment period: 2008-2012Kyoto targets can be met through:• Domestic policies and measures
(actions within national territory)• Use of “flexibility mechanisms”
(credits through carbon cutting activities in other countries) must be “supplemental to domestic action”!
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92.1
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
EU-27 GHG emissions
Inde
x 10
0 =
base
yea
r (EU
-15)
Inde
x 10
0 =
1990
(EU
-27)
EU-27 2020 target (-20%)
92.1
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
Inde
x 10
0 =
base
yea
r (E
U-1
5)In
dex
100
= 19
90 (E
U-2
7)
EU-15 GHG emissions EU-27 GHG emissions
Kyoto period
2008-2012
EU-15 Kyoto target (-8%)
EU-27 2020 target (-20%)
98.0
92.1
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
Inde
x 10
0 =
base
yea
r (E
U-1
5)In
dex
100
= 19
90 (E
U-2
7)
EU-15 GHG emissions EU-27 GHG emissions
Kyoto period
2008-2012
EU-15 Kyoto target (-8%)
EU-27 2020 target (-20%)
98.0
103.7
92.1
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
Inde
x 10
0 =
base
yea
r (E
U-1
5)In
dex
100
= 19
90 (E
U-2
7)
EU-15 GHG emissions EU-15 CO2 emissions EU-27 GHG emissions
Kyoto period
2008-2012
EU-15 Kyoto target (-8%)
EU-27 2020 target (-20%)
EU greenhouse gas emissions 1990EU greenhouse gas emissions 1990--20052005
10
90.793.4
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
EU-27 greenhouse gas emissions
Inde
x 10
0 =
1990
leve
l European Council 2020 reduction target
`
90.793.4 92.5
80
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Inde
x 10
0 =
1990
leve
l
EU-27 greenhouse gas emissions EU-27 with existing measures projections
European Council 2020 reduction target
`
93.4 90.7 92.5
8088.9
92.1
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Inde
x 10
0 =
1990
leve
l
EU-27 greenhouse gas emissions EU-27 with existing measures projections
EU-27 with additional measures projections
European Council 2020 reduction target
`
93.4 90.7 92.5
8088.9
92.1 94
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Inde
x 10
0 =
1990
leve
l
EU-27 greenhouse gas emissions EU-27 with existing measures projections
EU-27 with additional measures projections EU-27 projected 2020
European Council 2020 reduction target
`
EUEU--27 emissions are projected to be 10% 27 emissions are projected to be 10% below 1990 with all measuresbelow 1990 with all measures
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-12%
-10%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%Reductions achieved in 2005
(-2.0 %)
EU-15 Kyoto target: - 8 %
-12%
-10%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
Projected reductions by 2010with the existing measures
(-4.0 %)
Reductions achieved in 2005 (-2.0 %)
EU-15 Kyoto target: - 8 %
-12%
-10%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
Projected reductions by 2010with the existing measures
(-4.0 %)
Reductions achieved in 2005 (-2.0 %)
EU-15 Kyoto target: - 8 %
Total reduction by 2010: -11.4 %(projections from 2007)
Implementation of planned additional measures (-3.9 %)
Use of Kyoto mechanisms (-2.5 %)
CO2 removal by carbon sinks (-0.9 %)
EU-15 Member States projections (2007) for the Kyoto period
EU-15 greenhouse gas emissions in 2005
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EUEU--15 emission trends and projections15 emission trends and projections
96.9 96.6 96.0
98.0
92.1
88.6
80
90
100
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
GHG emissions (Base-year level = 100)
EU-15 trendEU-15 with existing measures projectionsEU-15 with additional measures projectionsEU-15 with add. measures projections,carbon sinks and Kyoto mechanismsEU-15 Kyoto target (2008-2012)
Kyoto Protocol commitment period
2008-2012
Use of carbon sinks and Kyoto mechanismsEU-15 Kyoto target
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4.0%
-10.7%
-7.4%
-1.4%
5.4%
17.3%
0.9%
19.6%
3.9%
9.6%
30.2%
9.7%
39.9%
19.6%
11.3%
27.3%
-3.4%
-11.2%
-10.4%
-4.7%
-3.9%
-3.4%
-2.0%
-0.9%
-0.7%
-0.4%
-0.1%
0.0%
0.5%
2.0%
14.2%
-4.1%
-20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
EU-15
United Kingdom
Sweden
Germany
Netherlands
Portugal
France
Finland
Belgium
Ireland
Austria
Greece
Luxembourg
Italy
Denmark
Spain
Percent points over-delivery (-) or shortfall (+) respective of emission targetProjections for 2010 with existing measuresProjections for 2010 with all measures, use of carbon sinks and Kyoto mechanisms
Three EU15 MS project not to reach their targets Three EU15 MS project not to reach their targets (gaps smaller than in 2006; EU ETS not fully taken into account)(gaps smaller than in 2006; EU ETS not fully taken into account)
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GHG emissions of new Member States reduced 28% GHG emissions of new Member States reduced 28% (1990(1990--2005), but will increase (to 20% below 1990)2005), but will increase (to 20% below 1990)
72.270.8
80.7 82.6
80.3
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
GHG emissions (1990 level = 100)
New MS trends New MS with existing measures projections New MS with additional measures projections
Kyoto Protocol commitment period
2008-2012
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All new EU MS project to reach their targetsAll new EU MS project to reach their targets-48.6%
-38.2%
-29.0%
-23.9%
-22.5%
-22.4%
-22.2%
-17.8%
-12.2%
14.8%
-51.9%
-40.6%
-33.7%
-27.8%
-20.8%
-15.3%
-4.7%
-22.7%
-60% -50% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20%
Estonia
Latvia
Bulgaria
Romania
Hungary
Poland
Lithuania
Czech Republic
Slovakia
Slovenia
Percent points over-delivery (-) or shortfall (+) respective of emission targetProjections for 2010 with existing measuresProjections for 2010 with all measures, use of carbon sinks and Kyoto mechanisms
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Key EU (domestic) policies and Key EU (domestic) policies and measures to reduce GHG emissionsmeasures to reduce GHG emissions
• EU emissions trading scheme• Promotion of electricity from renewable energy• Promotion of combined heat and power (CHP)• Improvements in the energy performance of
buildings and energy efficiency in large industrial installations
• Promotion of the use of energy-efficient appliances• Promotion of biofuels in transport • Reducing the average carbon dioxide emissions of new
passenger cars• Energy taxation• Recovery of gases from landfills• Reduction of fluorinated gases
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The EU emissions trading schemeThe EU emissions trading scheme
• Brief description• 10 800 installations in the EU (energy and industry sectors)• CO2 emissions only (so far)• ~ 40% of total EU GHG emissions• 7% of installations represent 80% of emissions from ETS• Maximum annual emissions allowed for each installation• Trading of allowances on a European carbon market• Use of Kyoto mechanisms allowed up to a certain limit (0-20%)
• 2005-2007 (phase I)• not much abatement observed (overallocation)
carbon prices fell to almost 0 €/tCO2
• useful as a trial phase• 2008-2012 (phase II)
• Kyoto commitment period• much stricter caps reinforced by European Commission (7 %
below 2005/2006 emissions)• current carbon price (04/04/2008): 23 €/tCO2
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Projected use of Kyoto mechanisms (CDM, JI) by Projected use of Kyoto mechanisms (CDM, JI) by 12 EU MS is about 2.5% of 12 EU MS is about 2.5% of --8% target (107.5 Mt)8% target (107.5 Mt)
Member State
Planned use of Kyoto mechanisms by
government to meet its burden sharing target
Projected emission reduction 2008–12 [Million tonnes CO2 -
equivalents per year]
Allocated Budget [EUR million]
Austria Yes 9.0 319
Belgium Yes 7.0 104
Denmark Yes 4.2 152
Finland Yes 2.4 120
Germany No - 23
Ireland Yes 2.4 290
Italy Yes 19.0 170
Luxembourg Yes 4.7 300
Netherlands Yes 20.0 693
Portugal Yes 5.8 354
Spain Yes 31.8 310
Sweden Yes (1.2)a 25
EU-15 Yes 107.5 2 860
Slovenia Yes < 0.6 -
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EUEU--15 GHG emissions decreased (except transport) 15 GHG emissions decreased (except transport) and projected to further decrease in most sectorsand projected to further decrease in most sectors
-7%
-4%
-3%
4%
0%
-3%
25%
-4%
-9%
0%
-38%
-11%
-16%
-1%
-1%
-50% -30% -10% 10% 30%
Waste
Agriculture
Industrial processes
Transport
Energy excl. transport
Waste
Agriculture
Industrial processes
Transport
Energy excl. transport
Waste
Agriculture
Industrial processes
Transport
Energy excl. transport
Projected effect of additional measures, 2005–2010
Past change in GHG emissions, base-year–2005
Projected change with existing measures, 2005–2010
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Thank you for your attention! Thank you for your attention! See you at See you at www.eea.europa.euwww.eea.europa.eu
www.eea.europa.euwww.eea.europa.eu/themes/climate/themes/climate KidsKids’’ zone: zone: http://http://ecoagents.eea.europa.euecoagents.eea.europa.eu & &
http://http://honoloko.eea.europa.euhonoloko.eea.europa.eu
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Additional slidesAdditional slides
22
Electricity production in thermal power plants (+38Electricity production in thermal power plants (+38 %) %) drove COdrove CO 22 emissions from electricity/heat production emissions from electricity/heat production up by +6up by +6 % between 1990 and 2005 in the EU% between 1990 and 2005 in the EU--1515
106
135
149
138 143
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Inde
x (1
990=
100)
CO2 emissions (past) Electricity consumption (past)
Electricity consumption (projected) Electricity production (past)Electricity production (projected)
93
129
144
130138
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Inde
x (1
990=
100)
CO2 emissions (past) Electricity consumption (past)
Electricity consumption (projected) Electricity production (past)
Electricity production (projected)
EU15 EU27
23
Share of renewable energy in EUShare of renewable energy in EU--27 electricity 27 electricity consumption increased to 14% in 2005 consumption increased to 14% in 2005
(2010 target: 21%, total 2020 RES target: 20%), (2010 target: 21%, total 2020 RES target: 20%), many MS not on trackmany MS not on track
1411.8
48.4
7.510.5
3.2 3.9 2.8 4.51.1 2.9
54.3
6.8
11.314.1 15
57.9
16
0 0
24.2
10
16.5
28.2 26.9
4.34.6
35.8
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
EU
27
Rom
ania
Hun
gary
Bul
garia
Den
mar
k
Latv
ia
Net
herla
nds
Ger
man
y
Luxe
mbo
urg
Lith
uani
a
Bel
gium
Cze
ch R
epub
lic
Est
onia
Pol
and
Finl
and
Uni
ted
Kin
gdom
Sw
eden
Irela
nd
Slo
veni
a
Fran
ce
Gre
ece
Italy
Spa
in
Slo
vaki
a
Aus
tria
Por
tuga
l
Mal
ta
Cyp
rus
% e
lect
ricity
con
sum
ptio
n
Indi
cativ
e ta
rget
21
24
Share of electricity from combined heat Share of electricity from combined heat and power (CHP) in EUand power (CHP) in EU--27 electricity production 27 electricity production
stabilised between 2000 and 2004 (10.5%)stabilised between 2000 and 2004 (10.5%)
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%EU
27EU
15EU
12D
enm
ark
Finl
and
Latv
iaN
ethe
rland
sR
oman
iaH
unga
ryPo
land
Cze
ch R
epub
licSl
ovak
iaAu
stria
Lith
uani
aPo
rtuga
lLu
xem
bour
gEs
toni
aG
erm
any
Belg
ium
Italy
Swed
enSp
ain
Bulg
aria
Uni
ted
King
dom
Slov
enia
Fran
ceIre
land
Gre
ece
Cyp
rus
Mal
ta
% to
tal e
lect
ricity
pro
duct
ion
25
COCO 22 emissions from households decreased emissions from households decreased by 1.7 % from 1990 to 2005, by 1.7 % from 1990 to 2005,
the number of dwellings increased by 18 %the number of dwellings increased by 18 %
102
118
124
99
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
Inde
x (1
990=
100)
CO2 emissions (past) Number of households (projected), Mio
Number of households (projected) Heating degree days
93
122
101
117
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
Inde
x (1
990=
100)
CO2 emissions (past) Number of households (projected)
Heating degree days Number of households (past), Mio
EU15 EU27
26
EUEU--15 greenhouse gas emissions from domestic 15 greenhouse gas emissions from domestic transport increased by 26 % between 1990 and 2005 transport increased by 26 % between 1990 and 2005
and could be stabilised at current levelsand could be stabilised at current levels
EU15 EU27
126 125118
128
139
162
173
100
115
130
145
160
175
190
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012GHG emissions (past)GHG project ions with exist ing measuresGHG project ions with addit ional measuresPassenger kilometers in cars (past)Passenger kilometers in cars (projected)Freight kilometers on road (past)Freight kilometers on road (projected)
126 126120
131143
159
181
100
115
130
145
160
175
190
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Inde
x (1
990=
100)
GHG emissions (past)GHG projections with existing measuresGHG projections with additional measuresPassenger kilometers in cars (past)Passenger kilometers in cars (projected)Freight kilometers on road (past)Freight kilometers on road (projected)
27
Average COAverage CO 22 emissions of new passenger cars emissions of new passenger cars were reduced by 12were reduced by 12 % from 1995 to 2004, % from 1995 to 2004,
but progress is slowing downbut progress is slowing down
28
The growth of transport emissions could The growth of transport emissions could annihilate all efforts to curb total emissionsannihilate all efforts to curb total emissions
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060
Inde
x (1
990=
100)
-60 %
Total GHG emissions(EU-27)
-80 %Annual growth rate: +1.3 % / year
Transport emissions(excl. aviation)
Source: European Environment Agency
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Carbon sinks will bring play a minor role towards Carbon sinks will bring play a minor role towards reaching the Kyoto target (reaching the Kyoto target (--0.9% from base0.9% from base--year)year)
• Carbon sinks are projected to represent 39 Mt CO2 /year, in the EU-15, equivalent to about 1/10 of the target reduction from EU-15 base-year emissions
• Forest management is the main activity elected under Art. 3.4• 16 MS (10 from EU-15) elected forest management • Additionally, 3 EU-15 MS elected cropland
management• 2 EU-15 MS elected grazing-land management• 1 new MS elected revegetation