greenerscheduling99 - executive...

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A tool to assist owners and operators in

Reducing the emission of Green house gases through more effective scheduling

of the fleet

NORWEGIAN MARITIME SOLUTIONS

John Colletts alle 117, N-0870 Oslo, Norway.

Tel: + 47 / 22 95 08 70 Fax: + 47 / 22 95 08 71 Mob: + 47 90 07 13 53

e-mail: [email protected]

Contact: Erik Stavseth

www.shipstrategy.com

GreenerScheduling4004a module in Route4004

© 2013, Stavseth Shipping Slide 2

Emissions from ships is an increasingly important factor to takeinto account for all shipowning and operating companies

� Shipping activities contribute significantly to the air pollution all over the world.

� Gases that effect climate change include carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), and nitrous oxide (N2O). Ship engines also produce other air pollutants such as carbon monoxide (CO), oxides of nitrogen (NOx), non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOCs), particulate matter, and sulphur dioxide (SO2).

� The amount of emissions produced is primarily a function of

– the amount of fuel consumed,

– the characteristics of the fuel,

– the engine technology employed, and

– any post-combustion emission controls in place.


The shipping industry is a small contributor to the total volumeof atmospheric emissions compared to road vehicles and air

transport….But still, the industry will make its efforts to reduce emissions

Source: International Chamber of Shipping

Shipping probably accounts for around 4% of global CO2.


In terms of energy consumption, shipping also compares very favorably with other transport modes.


Fuel costs now account for up to 70% of operating costs

� Shipowners therefore have a strong incentive to redu ce their fuel consumption

� The industry has also made efforts to increase fuel efficiency as a way of reducing shipping's environmental impact. Contin uing developments in engine, hull and propeller design a nd the use oflarger ships have been helping to deliver greater e fficiencies in fuel oil consumption

� Route4004 and GreenerScheduling4004 are tools that will minimizefuel consumption and thus fuel emissions


International regulations: IMO is taking a lead in setting newlevels

� There have been significant improvements in engine efficiency and hull design, and the use of ships with larger cargo carrying capacities have led to a reduction in emissions and an increas e in fuel efficiency.

� There is worldwide concern about atmospheric pollut ion and global warming and the shipping industry has been playing its part in high level discussions at IMO on reducing ships' emissio ns.

� The major task for the future is to improve the qua lity of fuel oil supplied to ships by the oil companies, the sulphur content of which is relatively high.

� IMO is expected to adopt a number of important amen dments to annex VI of the IMO MARPOL Convention (which regulates ai r emissions),which would introduce more stringent controls on NO x and gradually reduce the global limit for SOx emissions to 0.5% su lphur content in fuel.


Marine Environment Protection Committee (MEPC)58 – October 2008

� The Marine Environment Protection Committee (MEPC) of the International Maritime Organization (IMO) has appro ved proposed amendments to the MARPOL Annex VI regulations to re duce harmful emissions from ships.

� Sulphur– The main changes would see a progressive reduction in sulphur oxide

(SOx) emissions from ships, with the global sulphur cap reduced initially to 3.50% (from the current 4.50%, effective from 1 Jan uary 2012; then progressively to 0.50 %, effective from 1 January 2 020, subject to a feasibility review to be completed no later than 20 18.

The limits applicable in Sulphur Emission Control Ar eas (SECAs) would be reduced to 1.00%, beginning on 1 March 2010 (from t he current 1.50 %); being further reduced to 0.10 % , effective from 1 January 2015.

� NOx– Progressive reductions in nitrogen oxide (NOx) emis sions from marine

engines were also agreed, with the most stringent c ontrols on so-called "Tier III" engines, i.e. those installed on ships c onstructed on or after 1 January 2016, operating in Emission control Areas.


Introduction of new indices

� CO2 Design index

– Re-named Energy Efficiency Design Index (EEDI)

� CO2 Operational Index

– Energy Efficiency Operational Index (EEOI)


Short-term measures recommended by IMO

� Improvement of specific fuel consumption� Energy Efficiency Design and Management Plan/Using a Test Mode for

estimating CO2-index of new-build ships� Onshore power supply� Use of wind power� Voluntary/mandatory requirements to report CO2 inde x values,

information exchange/outreach and rating performanc e of ships and operators

� Strict limitations on leakage rates of refrigerant gases; •vessel speed reductions

� Measures to improve traffic control, fleet manageme nt, cargo handling operations and energy efficiency.


Ship GHG emissions high on agenda at IMO environment meeting July 2009

� The Marine Environment Protection Committee (MEPC) of the International Maritime Organization (IMO) is expect ed to agree on a package of technical and operational measures to re duce greenhouse gases (GHGs) from international shipping and to hol d an in-depth debate on possible market-based instruments to prov ide incentives for the shipping industry, when it meets for its 59th s ession from 13 to 17 July 2009, at the IMO Headquarters in London.

� Energy Efficiency Design Index for new ships


Assessment of Emissions Reduction Potential

DESIGN (New ships)Saving of CO2/tonne-

mileCombined Combined

Concept, speed & capability 2% to 50%

10% to 50%

25% to 75%

Hull and superstructure 2% to 20%

Power and propulsion systems 5% to 15%

Low-carbon fuels 5% to 15%

Renewable energy 1% to 10%

Exhaust gas CO2 reduction 0%

OPERATION (All ships)

Fleet management, logistics & incentives 5% to 50%

10% to 50%Voyage optimization 1% to 10%

Energy management 1% to 10%

GreenerScheduling4004 will be an

important tool to achieve these savings


World Fleet Fuel Consumption (2007)

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Fue

l Con

sum

ptio

n (M

illio

n to

ns)

This study

IMO Expert Group (Freight-Trend), 2007

Corbett and Köhler (Freight-Trend), JGR, 2003

Eyring et al., JGR, 2005 part 1 + 2

Endresen et al., JGR, 2007 (not corrected for comparison)

Endresen et al (Freight-Trend)., JGR, 2007

IEA Total marine fuel sales

IEA Int'l Marine Fuel sales

Point Estimates

This study (Freight trend)

Freight-Trend Eyring et al., JGR, 2005

EIA bunker

Bottom-up(Activity-based)

estimates

Top-down(Fuel-sales)

data

2007 Low bound Best High bound

Total fuel consumption 279 333 400


Emissions Summary (2007)

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Ship Exhaust Refrigerant Transport of Crude oil

Total

CO2 1050 - - 1050

CH4 0.10 - 0.14** 0.24

N2O 0.03 - - 0.03

HFC - 0.0004 - 0.0004

PFC - - - -

SF6 - - - -

NOx 25 - - 25

NMVOC 0.8 - 2.3 3.1

CO 2.5 - - 2.5

PM 1.8 - - 1.8

SOx 15 - - 15

Table 3-11 – Summary of emissions (million tons) from total shipping 2007*

* HFC numbers for 2003. Transport of Crude oil numbers for 2006.** Highly uncertain.


GreenerScheduling4004

� GreenerScheduling4004 is a software program that will estimate emissions a fleet of vessels generate when it is sc heduled on a commercial basis.

– Trades and cargoes are specified by load port, disc harge port, cargo intake, freight rate etc

– Ships are specified by speed, fuel consumption, dwt , NOX, CO2, SO2 and other parameters.

– Route4004 will first calculate all voyages with day s at sea, days in port, cargo loaded, freight revenue and TC result pr day for each voyage.

– GreenerScheduling4004 will then calculate the total amount of fuel consumed and the total kwh output of engines

– Estimate the emissions based on data for the fuel t ype and the engine specifications.

– If costs for emissions are specified, GreenerScheduling4004 will take this into consideration when finding an optimal schedule for the fleet.

� In a study by Marintek from 2000, it is estimated th at more effective scheduling can reduce emissions substantially by upto 40 % and also contribute to a much higher income on tc basis.


Key Driving Variables (based on IPCC SRES scenarios)

Category Variable Related Elements

EconomyShipping transport demand

(tonne-miles/year)Population, global and regional economic growth, mo dal shifts, sectoral demand shifts.

Transport efficiency

Transport efficiency (MJ/tonne-mile) – depends on fleet

composition, ship technologyand operation

Ship design, propulsion advancements, vessel speed, regulation aimed at achieving other objectives but that have a GHG emissions consequence.

Energy Shipping fuel carbon fraction

(gC/MJ fuel energy)Cost and availability of fuels (e.g., use of residu al fuel, distillates, LNG, biofuels, or other fuels).

Different values applied to three categories of ships:•Coastwise shipping - Ships used in regional (short sea) shipping; •Ocean-going shipping - Larger ships suitable for intercontinental trade; and,•Container ships (all sizes).


Stabilisation Scenarios

• Stabilisation of atmospheric CO 2concentrations by the end of the 21st century will require significant reductions in future global CO 2emissions.

• With 550 ppm , a target of 2 °Cwould be exceeded, and 450 ppmwould result in a 50% likelihood of achieving this target.

• If ship emissions grow as the baseline scenarios and if all other sources follow the 450 ppm stabilisation pathway, then shipping contributes 12-18% of 2050 CO2..

12-18 % of the WRE 450 scenario


Route4004 is an integrated software program containing thefollowing modules:

� VOYEST4004

– A comprehensive voyage estimator that calculates TC equivalent and other key parameters

� POOL4004

– Allows a number of calculations of chartering pool arrangements, pool points, profit for distribution etc

� OPTI4004

– Is a powerful optimizer that can start with a blank schedule and thereafter find a schedule allocating cargoes to ships so that the fleet result gives the best profit but at the same time respecting all con straints

� GreenerScheduling4004

– Is a module that can calculate emissions and the co sts of emissions in a commercial framework

� VOYACC4004

– Is a complete voyage accounting module that allows recording actual info such as cargo loaded, time in port etc.


Efficiency Improvements

� Consideration of scale, speed, design, and operatio n

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NOx Emissions Factors

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The first objective: Operators must be able to estimate whatemissions their scheduling produce

� Few shipping companies have had any focus on the em issions or pollutions that their operation create.

– User can check consistency with MARPOL Annex VI 73/78 sta ndard

� GreenerScheduling4004 will enable operators to estimate the emissions based on their projected trading.

� By using GreenerScheduling4004 the operators can project what impact new governmental or national tariffs on emis sions will have on their operation

� Scheduling of ships have traditionally taken into a ccount trivial factors such as port costs, canal charges, fuel expenses an d handling costs. Now they will also have to deal with cost of emissi ons . These costs will take various forms that will make scheduling a lot more complicated. This is where GreenerScheduling4004 will assist.


SOx Emissions Factors

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The scheduling task will get more complicated

Contract and spot cargoes

Fleet andTC ships

Task: Find a schedule for the fleet that maximizes the total TC result taking into account the cost of emissions

Traditional factors to include:

Port costs

Fuel cost

Handling costs

Canal costs

NEW FACTORS to include:

Cost of emissions

GreenerScheduling4004


Modal comparison of CO2 efficiency

Range of typical CO2 efficiencies for various cargo carriers

0 50 100 150 200 250

Road

Rail

RoRo / Vehicle

Product

LPG

Container

Bulk

Chemical

Reefer

General Cargo

LNG

Crude

g CO2 / ton*km


GreenerScheduling4004– Steps in typical usage

� Step 1 – Make a commercial fleet schedule (1 to 12 m onths period)

– Calculating voyage estimates for all cargoes and sh ips in the fleet

� Step 2 – Calculate the quantity of emissions from su ch schedule

– Provide management with an estimate of what polluta nts the fleet is generating

� Step 3 – Calculate the cost of emissions

– These can be costs as they are today or future expe cted costs that will be imposed on the shipping industry

� Step 4 – Let GreenerScheduling4004 find an ”optimal” schedule that maximizes the fleet’s TC result and minimizes emiss ions

– GreenerScheduling4004 will enable the operator to find a schedule that wi ll minimize air emissions and in this way comply with regulations.


Summary (1/3)

� Carbon dioxide is the most important GHG emitted by ships

� Shipping amounts to 3.3% of the global anthropogenic CO 2

� International shipping: 2.7% of the global anthropogenic CO 2

. � Absent regulations, ship emissions

may grow significantly as a result of growth in shipping

Scenarios for CO2 emissions from International Ship ping from 2007 to 2050 in the absence of climate polici es

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

CO

2 em

issi

ons

from

shi

ps (m

illio

n to

ns C

O2

/ yr)

'

A1FI

A1B

A1T

A2

B1

B2

Max

Min


Step 1: Calculate voyage estimates for all cargoes and ships in the fleet

Atlantic Highway

Atlantic Leader

Atlantic Breeze

WCMED100

WCMED101

WCMED102

WCMED103

Jan Feb Mar April May

EUR/Jap

Jap/SA

USWC/Japan

Jap/SA

USWC/Japan

EUR/Jap

35,000 USD/day -180 days



Calculations take into account: Cargo qty, freight rates, port

charges, speed/consumption ofvessels etc


Typical emissions from ships

0.03 g/kwh

0.3 – 12 g/kwh

0.2 – 2.5 g/kwh

0.001 g/kwh

13 – 16 g/kwh

Engine based emissions(1kwh = 3.6 MJ)

NMVOC(Non Methane Volatile Organic Carbon)

PM

CO

CH4

0 – 5 % of fuel consumedSO2

NOX

3 kg / kg fuelCO2

Fuel based emissions


Emission data for ships GreenerScheduling4004: Typical input


Step 2: GreenerScheduling4004 calculates the amount ofemissions from this schedule

Atlantic Highway

Illustrative: Atlantic Highway 180 days

WCMED100


EUR/Jap USWC/Japan

CO2

SO2

NOX

CO

CH4

PM

18,000 tons

200 tons

450 tons

55,000 dwt bulker

14.5 kn on 40 mt pr day

10,000 kw * 80 %

Total fuel consumption: 6,000 mt

Total engine output: 30 mill kwh

June

180 days

30 tons

50 tons

7 tons

NMVOC 40 tons

Emissions are calculated based on parameters given for the ship and the fuel, time at sea, time in port,

engine rating for sea versus port etc


What are costs of emissions ?

� So far the maritime industry is not paying much for the emissions but this may soon be changing as more and more governme nts and international organizations are in the process of i ntroducing tariffs and limits for emissions.

� GreenerScheduling4004 will allow the operators to test various assumptions about the impact of such emission fees:

– Cost of purchasing of CO2 quotas for global or regi onal traffic

– Low sulphur fuel in European waters

– NOX charges not only in Norwegian waters but extend ed to more port areas

– Introduction of maximum limits for emissions altern atively penalty charges for emissions while in ports


Specification of emission costs GreenerScheduling4004

Typical input


Step 3: GreenerScheduling4004 calculates the cost (*) ofemissions from this schedule

Atlantic Highway

Illustrative: Atlantic Highway 180 days

WCMED100


EUR/Jap USWC/Japan

CO2

SO2

NOX

CO

CH4

PM

18,000 tons * 10 USD/ton = USD 180,000

200 tons * 80 USD/ton = USD 16,000

450 tons* 200 USD/ton = USD 90,000

55,000 dwt bulker

14.5 kn on 40 mt pr day

10,000 kw * 80 %

Total fuel consumption: 6,000 mt

Total engine output: 30 mill kwh

June

180 days

30 tons

50 tons

7 tons

NMVOC 40 tons

(*) Cost of emissions is based on cost pr pollutantas stated by global or local authroities

Total voyage emissioncost: USD 286,000


GreenerScheduling4004 : Voyage estimates include emissionscosts

GreenerScheduling4004: Typical Voyage estimate


GreenerScheduling4004 : Alternative graphs to present results


Step 4: Route4004 can calculate an optimal (*) schedulefor the fleet that takes into account emissions costs

Atlantic Highway

Atlantic Leader

Atlantic Breeze

Illustrative: GreenerScheduling4004

WCMED100

WCMED101

WCMED102

WCMED103


EUR/Jap

Jap/SA

USWC/Japan

Jap/Singapore

USWC/Japan

EUR/Australia

(*) The optimal schedule takes into account all thecontractual obligations the operators has along with

expected spot business, but in these calculations, emission costs are included as part of the voyage

costs


Illustrative case (*)Optimal schedule gives: 20% improvement

(*) A fleet of 6 Handy max bulkers scheduled for a 6 months period against a mix of contract cargoes/spot jobs and TC contracts.

42,00035,000TC Pr day

45.4 mill USD39.6 mill USDPro-rated TC result

1.0801,132Ship days

Optimal scheduleproduced by Route4004

Manual Schedule as produced by Charteringdepartment


Ships to be scheduled


Cargoes to be lifted - details


Emissions pr ton mile


Visual Scheduling

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