greencape teleconference november 2011 retail final
TRANSCRIPT
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Greencape CapitalBridges Financial Services
Matthew Ryland
November 2011
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Greencape Capital
•Business• Boutique funds management business with blue chip institutional backing
• 65% owned by principals David Pace, Matthew Ryland, Marc Hester and David Tonkin
• 35% owned by Challenger
•People• Experienced, with track record of top quartile performance
• Stable team – worked together for many years
• Alignment
•Process• Structured, flexible and repeatable
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Research and portfolio construction
Ratings list
Broadcap portfolio
High Convictionportfolio
(15 - 40 stocks)
Investment universe
(ASX 100 + circle of competency mid & smalls)
(45 – 70 stocks, currently 55)
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Greencape product offering on Bridges APL
Greencape Broadcap
Fund
Benchmark S&P/ASX 300 Accumulation Index
Number of securities Between 45 and 70 stocks
Cash range 0% - 15%
Maximum position 5% active
Tracking error 2% - 6%
Portfolio manager Matthew Ryland
Offshore Nil
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Investment philosophy
•Markets are inefficient
•Sentiment and short-termism can mask fundamentals
•Qualitative factors are generally underappreciated in investmentdecisions
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Investment process: completing the investment picture
Idea generation-ASX 100+-Circle of competency
Stock selection criteria-Shareholder stewardship-Business evaluation-Market milestones-Valuation
Stock ranking-Stock investment rating-Team review
Portfolio construction
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Rated universe (top 100 circle of competency)
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Quarterly fund performance – 30 September 2011
Performance Quarter (%)
1 year (%)
2 years (%) p.a
3 years (%) p.a.
5 years(%) p.a
Inception (%) p.a
Greencape Wholesale Broadcap Fund -11.51 -5.49 -1.11 4.66 4.32 5.10
Growth return -12.69 -14.57 -6.83 -0.49 -1.28 -0.49
Distribution return 1.18 9.08 5.72 5.15 5.60 5.58
S&P/ASX 300 Accumulation Index -11.65 -8.71 -4.14 -0.10 -0.71 -0.17
Outperformance (Net) 0.14 3.22 3.03 4.76 5.03 5.27
Returns are calculated after fees have been deducted, assuming reinvestment of distributions. No allowance is made for tax. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
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Case study: Amcor
•SS = 5 from 3• Alcan well priced acquisition, genuine consolidation
• Wc/sales 12% 7%
• Remuneration, options majority > $7.07 TSR = nil < 50% of comps
•BE = 3• ROIC improvement
• 80% of exposure is sustainable growth e.g. healthcare, Asia, Latin America
• V = 5• DCF = $8.45
• MM = 4• US PET vols bounce
• Synergy outlook better than expected
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Amcor
Ken McKenzie
CEO
Bill Long – PET
Nigel Gerrard - Aust
Chris Roberts Chairman
Geoff Tomlinson
Resin
Tech Inc
Constanta
CFO
Rexam
-Key Account Manager
-IR
-Ex CEO
Huhtamaki
CFO
Cheveron, C- Stores Walmart, Coca-cola
Pepsi Inc
CustomerClondalkin
CEO, CFO
Visy Corp
Colourpac CEO, CFO
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China
•Key discretionary item sought after by the growing middle class consumer
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China
•Auto factories keep producing with slower sales
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China
•Chinese fixed asset investment is at an unsustainable level of 60% of GDP
•The components of Chinese investment below show historically high investment growth driven by real estate and manufacturing investment, both of which have seen production exceed sales recently.
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China
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Outlook
•This quarter, share market sell off has seen further value emerge, earnings expectations look more realistic and $AUD weakened.
•New negative is credit crisis building from the European debt problem. Growing mistrust on banks lending to each other.
•China has some concerning real economy trends emerging.
•Portfolio heavily biased towards companies which have earnings growth driven by “self help”rather than macro economic dependence.
•Remain patient and continue to seek observable opportunities rather than predict a market bottom.
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Disclaimer
The information contained in this presentation is current as at 30 June 2011 unless otherwise specified and is intended solely for licensed financial advisers. It must not be passed on to a retail client. It should be regarded as general information only rather than advice. It has been prepared without taking account of any person’s objectives, financial situation or needs.
Offers of interests in the Greencape Broadcap Fund and Greencape High Conviction Fund will be contained in the Product Disclosure Statement to be issued by Challenger Managed Investments Limited ABN 94 002 835 592 AFSL 234668 which will be available on our website www.challenger.com.au and must be considered before making a decision about the product. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. The information on the Funds may change after the date of this document. See the current PDS for current information.