green jobs for the green economy george bouma, team leader, sustainable development cluster mihail...
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Green Jobs for the Green Economy
George Bouma, Team Leader, Sustainable Development ClusterMihail Peleah, Programme Specialist Green Economy and Employment
Istanbul Regional Hub for Europe and the CIS
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Sub-regional Workshop on Employment and Social Inclusion/ 16-17 April 2015, Skopje, Macedonia FYR
Presentation Outline
1. Key aspects2. Trends – green jobs and trade3. Structural issues4. Constraints/Opportunities5. Targeting sectors 6. Some examples7. Policy implications
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Sub-regional Workshop on Employment and Social Inclusion/ 16-17 April 2015, Skopje, Macedonia FYR
Green Economy
• Green economy: improved human well-being and social equity, while significantly reducing environmental risks and ecological scarcities
• Green economy:– low carbon– resource efficient– socially inclusive
Economic growth
Social development Environmental
sustainability
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Sub-regional Workshop on Employment and Social Inclusion/ 16-17 April 2015, Skopje, Macedonia FYR
Key Aspects• Sustainability issues (eg climate change) require us to
de-couple environmental impacts and economic growth• Increasing protection and management – evolution of
the ‘eco-industry’ • Maintaining the environment as a primary natural
resource input for sectors dependent on quality – eg agriculture and tourism
• Improving efficiency and reducing consumption – eg low carbon growth
• Increasing amount of trade in ‘environmental goods’ and associated employment in green growth
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Sub-regional Workshop on Employment and Social Inclusion/ 16-17 April 2015, Skopje, Macedonia FYR
What are the trends – EU27
• 2012 (est) around 3,4 million - ~1% of the total workforce
• Ave. growth (2000 - 2008) approx 2,72 %• Induced and indirect effects - turnover of €
750 billion and 4.6 million jobs• Broader definition, some 19 million jobs or 5%
of the total working population (2010)
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Sub-regional Workshop on Employment and Social Inclusion/ 16-17 April 2015, Skopje, Macedonia FYR
Global market in environmental technology
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Sub-regional Workshop on Employment and Social Inclusion/ 16-17 April 2015, Skopje, Macedonia FYR
SEE: Export of environmental goods per capita is growing
Based on UNDO (2012) “Green sectors in Eastern Europe and NIS”
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Sub-regional Workshop on Employment and Social Inclusion/ 16-17 April 2015, Skopje, Macedonia FYR
SEE: Imports of environmental goods per capita is growing as well
Based on UNDO (2012) “Green sectors in Eastern Europe and NIS”
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Sub-regional Workshop on Employment and Social Inclusion/ 16-17 April 2015, Skopje, Macedonia FYR
Trends (cont)• However, SEE share of EG trade has remained
relatively static • Reflecting a limited focus and development of
green sector/s (Albania and Croatia)• Exclusion from international value chains – will
mean catch up• Behind technological frontiers and import cost• National value chain boundaries remain static• Skills development challenges
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Sub-regional Workshop on Employment and Social Inclusion/ 16-17 April 2015, Skopje, Macedonia FYR
Structural issues - What do we know?
• What is the effect of environmental policy on the economy?
• From a macro-economic perspective environmental policies do not come at the cost of growth and employment
• Positive trends in productivity and employment• Contribute to structural change which shifts costs
between sectors and this leads to trade-offs• Hence the links to social inclusion to manage a
changing workforce in the shift to green growth
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Sub-regional Workshop on Employment and Social Inclusion/ 16-17 April 2015, Skopje, Macedonia FYR
Industry issues - What do we know?
• Aggregate productivity declines not prevalent• Technology is key factor at the industry and
firm level• Environmental targets are not a factor in
competitiveness • Design of policy frameworks are critical• Institutions, governance capacity, technology
and skills are key drivers
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Sub-regional Workshop on Employment and Social Inclusion/ 16-17 April 2015, Skopje, Macedonia FYR
Policy instruments – at early stage of implementation
Source: OECD questionnaire to Labor Ministries in 27 countries, 2010
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Sub-regional Workshop on Employment and Social Inclusion/ 16-17 April 2015, Skopje, Macedonia FYR
Constraints/Opportunities• Not dissimilar to ALMP include:– Much greater integration of development planning
and sector coordination– Design of overall policy approaches and signals– Investment in technological transfers and
capacities, – Weak private sector vs public sector– Poor technical specialization for trade (incl. intra-
trade EU region)
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Sub-regional Workshop on Employment and Social Inclusion/ 16-17 April 2015, Skopje, Macedonia FYR
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Sub-regional Workshop on Employment and Social Inclusion/ 16-17 April 2015, Skopje, Macedonia FYR
Green Jobs: Key sectors• Energy
– High energy use per GDP (BIH, SRB, KOS*, MNE)– Big share of oil-coal-gas, marginal other renewables (comparing to 11% EU)
• Agriculture– Still a major employer (42% ALB, 24% TUR, 22% SRB, 20% BIH)– Migrants receiving sector (HRV, MNE, SRB)– Outdated technologies, practices
• Tourism– Major export service (MNE, ALB, HRV, TUR)– Huge seasonal employment, migration
• Waste management– Heavily informal – not decent jobs, not green jobs– Scope of regional cooperation
• +Migration
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Sub-regional Workshop on Employment and Social Inclusion/ 16-17 April 2015, Skopje, Macedonia FYR
Energy
• High energy use per GDP (BIH, SRB, KOS*, MNE)• Dirty energy:– Big share of oil-coal-gas, marginal of other renewables
(comparing to 11% EU)– High carbon intensity of energy
• Potential for development– Renewables (solar, wind)– Energy efficiency of new building, refitting existing
• Green Jobs– Primary: Limited number of high-skill jobs– …but significant secondary effects
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Sub-regional Workshop on Employment and Social Inclusion/ 16-17 April 2015, Skopje, Macedonia FYR
Towards Green Economy
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Sub-regional Workshop on Employment and Social Inclusion/ 16-17 April 2015, Skopje, Macedonia FYR
Brown energy intensive
Tons of CO2 equivalent emitted per ton of energy equivalent consumed
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Sub-regional Workshop on Employment and Social Inclusion/ 16-17 April 2015, Skopje, Macedonia FYR
Energy: maturation of innovations drives costs down
IRENA Renewable Power Generation Cost 2014 Report
Cost reductions for small-scale residential solar PV, Q2 2008 to Q2 2014
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Sub-regional Workshop on Employment and Social Inclusion/ 16-17 April 2015, Skopje, Macedonia FYR
UNDP experience—Croatia
• UNDP, Global Environmental Facility programme on public-sector energy efficiency
• Results (2006-2010):– Energy systems in 5900 public buildings refitted
– Energy audits conducted in 1346 public buildings
– $18 million in initial annual public-sector energy savings
– Annual CO2 emissions reduced by 63,000 tons
– “Energy charter” signed by all 127 municipalities
– 17 new companies, 150 energy efficiency expert jobs created– $4 million in UNDP-GEF funding leveraged $30 million in additional investment
Louisa Vinton, “Going green with Gašpar”, Development and Transition 18
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Sub-regional Workshop on Employment and Social Inclusion/ 16-17 April 2015, Skopje, Macedonia FYR
Tourism
• Major export service (MNE, ALB, HRV, TUR)• Huge seasonal employment, incl. migration (HRV, MNE,
SRB)• Potential for development– Eco- and agri-tourism (HRV, MNE)– Energy efficiency of transport– Energy efficiency of accommodation
• Green Jobs– Primary: big number of low to medium skill jobs, some high skill
jobs– Significant secondary effects
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Sub-regional Workshop on Employment and Social Inclusion/ 16-17 April 2015, Skopje, Macedonia FYR
Tourism footprint: transport and energy efficiency matters
Two weeks vacation for two in Montenegro, some 1000 km from home.
Air travelLow EE hotel
Rental cars/taxis
Own carMedium EE hotel
TrainHigh EE hotel
Public transport
—30%
—75%
Source: Project Towards Carbon Neutral Tourism in Montenegro
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Sub-regional Workshop on Employment and Social Inclusion/ 16-17 April 2015, Skopje, Macedonia FYR
UNDP experience—Montenegro• Project “Towards Carbon Neutral Tourism in Montenegro” (EUR 3.09 mln. GEF,
2014-2019)• Scope to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases in the Montenegrin tourism sector • How to?
– Policies and regulations to reduce the level of carbon dioxide (CO2),– Sustainable funding mechanisms,– Major investments in tourism infrastructure with low CO2 emissions– Raising public awareness on environmentally friendly tourism.
• Expected results:– Eco-certificate for at least 200 officially registered tourist facilities (100 large facilities
and 100 private accommodations)– Direct effects on reducing emissions of greenhouse gases 77 kt of CO2 equivalent per
year for a period of 20 years after the investment in this project.– Indirect effects on reducing emissions of greenhouse gases 174 kt of CO2 equivalent by
the end of 2023, more than 360 kt of CO2 equivalent by the end of 2028.
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Sub-regional Workshop on Employment and Social Inclusion/ 16-17 April 2015, Skopje, Macedonia FYR
Migration is not standalone issue but a part of labour market issues
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Sub-regional Workshop on Employment and Social Inclusion/ 16-17 April 2015, Skopje, Macedonia FYR
Migration as a potential source of green skills remittances?
Source: IOM “Labour Mobility as a Factor of Development in South-East Europe”, 2015
MontenegroAgricultureConstrictionTradeTourism
CroatiaAgricultureConstrictionTourism ↘ Shipbuilding
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Sub-regional Workshop on Employment and Social Inclusion/ 16-17 April 2015, Skopje, Macedonia FYR
Skills profile for green jobs
• Future employment in green jobs (changes):– Additional jobs in several areas (eg pollution-
control)– Substitution of employment (eg from fossil fuels to
renewable, landfill to recycling)– Particular jobs may be eliminated (eg banned
packaging)– Re-skilling of existing jobs (eg plumbers,
construction etc)• Skills forecasting and investment required
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Sub-regional Workshop on Employment and Social Inclusion/ 16-17 April 2015, Skopje, Macedonia FYR
Skill mismatch for Green Economy
Green demand
Green demand
Students enrolled in tertiary education Serbia 2012/2013
Green demand
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Sub-regional Workshop on Employment and Social Inclusion/ 16-17 April 2015, Skopje, Macedonia FYR
Policy Implications• Coordinate environmental, economic and social concerns in national
development policies• Coordinate investments in jobs and skills, improve flexibility (life-long
learning)• Better match skill supply to labour market• Specific training and expanding opportunities for disadvantaged groups• Use peer learning to spread sustainable practices and use of new green
technologies (B2B)• Public private partnership in key sectors for green jobs• Mobilize highly skilled nationals in the diaspora and migrants to contribute
to green transitions• Raise awareness and link it with skills development
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Sub-regional Workshop on Employment and Social Inclusion/ 16-17 April 2015, Skopje, Macedonia FYR
Thank you very much!
[email protected]@undp.org
@UNDPEurasia