Robust decisions in uncertain times

SAMI Consulting

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Scenarios in a Partnership

Future Perspectives at Grant Thornton

June 2014

Workshop: Developments in Scenario Planning

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Robust decisions in uncertain times

Role of consultants

• Process design

• Introduction to/training in use of tools

• Technology transfer

• Specialist skills

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Robust decisions in uncertain times

Strategy cycle

• The hard bit starts here!

• Horizon scanning, interviews, research, Jam inputs leading to a list of up to 20 drivers of change

• Starting with the March Workshop and going through to the Partners Conference in May

• Taking the drivers of change and creating mental models which combine both the forecastable elements and expose the big questions

Sense Making Setting Priorities

ImplementationStrategic Intelligence

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Robust decisions in uncertain times

Board awareness

• The hard bit starts here!

• Horizon scanning, interviews, research, Jam inputs leading to a list of up to 20 drivers of change

• Starting with the March Workshop and going through to the Partners Conference in May

• Taking the drivers of change and creating mental models which combine both the forecastable elements and expose the big questions

Sense Making Setting Priorities

ImplementationStrategic Intelligence

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Board awareness

Robust decisions in uncertain times

Board engagement

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Robust decisions in uncertain times

Strategic Intelligence

• Process leading to 14 key drivers• Deck of cards• Role of Three Horizons tool• Role of programme support• Interviews & role of Panels• Desk research• Use of intranet

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• Horizon scanning, interviews, research, Jam inputs leading to a list of up to 20 drivers of change

Robust decisions in uncertain times

13/04/2023 www.samiconsulting.co.uk 7

MANAGER VISIONARYENTREPRENEUR

Eg, MUSIC, MOVIES, CDs, DVDs

Eg., MUSIC, MOVIES – transformational disruptor

- iTunes

Eg, MUSIC, MOVIES – paradigm buster -

Napster

Three Horizons: Mindsets

Robust decisions in uncertain times

Key Role of Panels

• Each led by “emerging” partner• 6 members including future leaders

– New graduate– High flyer

• Each Panel had to complete 6-10 interviews using 7 Questions– Insiders, outsiders/clients, futurists– Outsiders reacted very positively– Panel members pleasantly surprised!

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Robust decisions in uncertain times

Sense making

• Scenario workshop– Participants – NLB + Panels + LOB leaders– Style – workshop – 7 groups– Input – 14 key drivers– Outputs

• Writing up the scenarios– Naming the scenarios

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• Taking the drivers of change and creating mental models which combine both the forecastable elements and expose the big questions

Robust decisions in uncertain times

The scenario matrix

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Scenarios built from drivers in this box plus trends

For

ecas

tabl

e

Incorporate in scenarios and track for the business plan

Important

Less important

UncertainThese could be

really disruptive, to be watched

These trends form part of the back story of the scenarios

Robust decisions in uncertain times

Key Role of Panels

• All Panel members took part in Scenario Workshop

• Testing the scenarios– Panel members took scenarios out to test with

3 groups of public, e.g.• Groups of schoolchildren• Women’s Institute• NFU branch• Investment clubs• etc

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Robust decisions in uncertain times

Setting priorities

• Using the scenario to wind-tunnel strategies– Participants in the workshop – NLB + LOB

leaders + Panel Chairs– Style – 4 groups– Inputs - scenarios– Outputs – portfolio of options

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• Starting with the March Workshop and going through to the Partners Conference in May

Robust decisions in uncertain times

Process

Brainstorm

Calibrate

Options

Robust decisions in uncertain times

Options

Familiar

Unfamiliar

Uncertain

Current contribution Mature in 2-5 years Mature in 5+ years

Robust decisions in uncertain times

• The hard bit starts here!

Implementation

• Future Perspectives session at May Partners’ Conference– top 120 of 4,700 staff– Used scenarios in relation to client case

studies in workshop mode

• Use scenarios with clients– Building on strong interest from interviews– And from testing workshops

• Use to steer internal prioritieswww.samiconsulting.co.uk 15

Robust decisions in uncertain times

For more.....

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