gpg 2012 post election

ELECTION 2012 Post-Election Analysis

ELECTION OVERVIEW

Landscape: Lead-Up To The Election

Presidential Results: What happened? Presidential Results: How did it happen?

Congressional Results: What happened?

Looking Ahead: What does this mean going forward?

1

TAKEAWAYS

Race was trending toward Obama leading in to Election Day

Growing economic optimism

Improving job approval numbers

Obama maintained 2008 coalition

Youth, Latino, African-American, Women (especially unmarried women) all turned out and supported Obama

Coalition supplemented by Midwest support cemented by auto-bailout

2

TAKEAWAYS

Organization won

Romney spent more on ads in all but one swing state

But Obama had more than twice as many field offices in each swing state

It was a very close election/ we are still largely an evenly divided country

Partisan Primaries cost Republicans

Moves perceptions of the party to the right, alienating key segments of voters

Costs Republicans winnable Senate seats for 2nd cycle in a row

3

LANDSCAPE Lead-Up To The Election

Source: Pollster.com Aggregate Data

OBAMA JUMPED AHEAD OF ROMNEY IN CLOSING DAYS

As of November 6, 2012: OBAMA 48.6% ROMNEY 47.6%

Romney Secures nomination

Conventions

Debates

Hurricane Sandy

5

PREDICTION MARKET CONSISTENTLY FAVORED OBAMA

Source: InTrade

Mitt Romney 31.4%

Barack Obama 68.4%

As of November 6,

2012

6

STARTING IN AUGUST, AMERICANS’ VIEWS ON THE ECONOMY BECAME MORE OPTIMISTIC

Source: CBS News Poll, October 17-20, 2012

Do you think the economy is getting better, getting worse, or staying about the same?

36% 32% 30%

23% 22% 24% 28%

30% 30%

28% 27%

49% 50% 45%

49%

43% 44%

38%

45% 43% 39%

34%

14% 18%

24%

28%

34% 30% 33%

24% 25%

32% 38%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Staying the Same

Getting worse

Getting better

7

NUMBER WHO THOUGHT COUNTRY WAS ON THE WRONG TRACK TRENDED DOWN LEADING INTO THE ELECTION

Source: Pollster.com Aggregate Data

October 2004 %

Wrong Track 47

Right Direction 41

Nov 1996 %

Wrong Track 40

Right Direction 41

October 1992 %

Wrong Track 69

Right Direction 16

As of November 6, 2012

A Look Back

Source: NBC News/WSJ

Nov 2008 %

Wrong Track 76

Right Direction 11

October 2000 %

Wrong Track 32

Right Direction 48





WRONG TRACK 52.8%

RIGHT DIRECTION 41.5%

8

JOB APPROVAL RATINGS FOR INCUMBENT PRESIDENTS SEEKING RE-ELECTION

Source: Historical Gallup Poll Data

Presidential Job Approval January March June October

2012: Barack Obama 44% 46% 47% 50%

2004 George W. Bush 60% 49% 49% 50%

1996: Bill Clinton 42% 54% 58% 58%

1992: George H.W. Bush 46% 41% 37% 33%

1984: Ronald Reagan 52% 54% 55% 58%

1980: Jimmy Carter 56% 43% 32%

1976: Gerald Ford 56% 43% 32%

1972: Richard Nixon 49% 56% 59%

1964: Lyndon Johnson 77% 77% 74%

Selected dates, as available, in year of re-election

President’s in red lost re-election

9

UNEMPLOYMENT RATE DROPPED AS ELECTION APPROACHED, VARIED WIDELY IN SWING STATES

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Jan 2009 – October 2012

2009 2010 2011 2012

7.8

9.5 10.0 9.9 9.8

9.0 9.0 8.3 8.1

7.8

7.9

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

Jan

Ap

r

Jul

Oct

Jan

Ap

r

Jul

Oct

Jan

Ap

r

Jul

Oct

Jan

Ap

r

July

Oct

State Unemployment Rate (Sept 2012)

National 7.8%

Nevada 11.8%

North Carolina 9.6%

Florida 8.7%

Colorado 8%

Wisconsin 7.3%

Ohio 7%

Virginia 5.9%

New Hampshire 5.7%

Iowa 5.2%

10

ECONOMIC CONCERNS DRIVE ELECTORAL AGENDA

Source: Gallup Poll, October 15-16, 2012

What do you think is the most important problem facing this country today?

32%

36%

25% 26%

30%

26% 25%

22% 25%

28%

23%

32%

26%

31% 30% 26%

31% 31% 31% 32% 31% 31% 29%

31%

29%

37%

13% 13% 16% 15% 16%

13% 12% 14%

12% 13% 15%

12% 12%

9% 6%

12%

8% 8% 9% 11%

9% 11%

7% 7% 10% 9%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

Oct2011

Nov2011

Dec2011

Jan2012

Feb2012

Mar2012

Apr2012

May2012

June2012

July2012

Aug2012

Sept2012

Oct2012

Unemployment Economy

Dissatisfaction with gov't Federal Budget Deficit

PROBLEM %

The economy 37

Unemployment 26

Federal budget deficit 12

Dissatisfaction with gov’t

9

Health care 7

Lack of money 5

Education 4

Foreign aid/Focus overseas

4

Ethical/moral/family decline

4

Results <4% not shown

11

OBAMA’S JOB APPROVAL TRENDED UP AS RACE ENTERED THE HOME STRETCH

DISAPPROVE

APPROVE

Source: Gallup Poll Daily Tracking

Each result is based on a three-day rolling average

Nov 3-5

12

PRESIDENTIAL RESULTS What Happened?

OR

AK

KY

NM

MN

CO

GA

NC

NH

3 11

7

55 5

4 3

5

10 5

9

3

3

4

4

3

4

34

31

6

7

10

7

11

6

9 6 9 15

27

8 15

13

11

21 11

10 17

20 21

8 5

Obama 365

McCain 173

1

VT 3

RI 4

NJ 15

CT 7

DE 3

MD 10

DC 3

MA 12

NH 4

A RECAP OF THE 2008 ELECTION

14

Obama 332 Romney 206

2012 ELECTION RESULTS – OBAMA ONLY LOSES TWO STATES FROM 2008 MAP

OR

AK

KY

NM

MN

CO

GA

NC

NH

3 12

7

55 6

4 3

6

11 5

9

3

3

5

4

3

4

38

29

6

7

10

6

10

6

8 6 9 16

29

9 15

13

11

20 11

10 16

18 20

8 5

Party change from ‘08

VT 3

RI 4

NJ 15

CT 7

DE 3

MD 10

DC 3

MA 12

NH 4

Obama currently ahead in Florida, still counting absentee ballots 15

PRESIDENTIAL RESULTS How Did It Happen?

“THE ECONOMY” WAS #1 ISSUE AND SLIGHTLY FAVORED ROMNEY, BUT NOT ENOUGH FOR THE WIN

Source: 2012 Exit Polls

Economy 59% (+4R)

Health Care 18%

(+34R)

Federal Budget Deficit

15% (+51D)

Foreign Policy 5% (+23D)

17

BUT A DEEPER DIVE ON ECONOMIC MEASURES SHOWS ROMNEY ONLY OUTPERFORMS ON TAXES

Which ONE of these four is the biggest economic problem facing people like you?

Unemployment Rising Prices Taxes Housing Market

38%

+10D

37%

Tie

14%

+34R

8%

+31D

Source: 2012 Exit Polls 18

FEW ARE SEEING PROGRESS FINANCIALLY, BUSH STILL BLAMED FOR CURRENT ECONOMIC PROBLEMS

Source: CNN and MSNBC exit polls

Total Obama Romney

Better today 25% 84% 15%

Worse today 33% 18% 80%

About the same 41% 58% 40%

Obama wins among those who believe things are the same from four years ago.

Total Obama Romney

Barack Obama 38% 5% 94%

George W. Bush 53% 85% 12%

Compared to four years ago, is your family's financial situation:

Who is more to blame for current economic problems?

Voters still blame George Bush for current economic problems.

19

ROMNEY WINS ON NEARLY ALL TRAITS, YET OBAMA STILL WON ELECTION

Has a vision for the future 29%

Spread

+9R

Total

Shares my values 27% +13R

Cares about people like me 21% +63D

Is a strong leader 18% +23R


PRESIDENT OBAMA’S SUPPORT OF THE AUTO BAILOUT HELPED HIM IN CRITICAL SWING STATES

How do you feel about the federal government's aid to U.S. automakers?

Approve Approve Approve

62%

+53D

53% 60%

Source: 2012 Exit Polls

+59D +48D

Michigan Wisconsin Ohio

21

WHITE VOTE CONTINUES TO DECLINE AS % OF ELECTORATE

% of Electorate

2004 2008 2012

White 77% 74% 72%

Black 12% 13% 13%

Hispanic/Latino 8% 8% 10%

Source: 2004-2012 Exit Polls

Spread

2004 2008 2012

White +17R +12R +20R

Black +77D +91D +87D

Hispanic/Latino +9D +36D +44D

22

Hispanic vote growing

And trending toward Obama

LATINO TURNOUT UP TWO POINTS, SUPPORT FOR OBAMA STRENGTHENS FROM 2008

% of Electorate

2004 2008 2012

National 8 9 10

Colorado 8 13 11

Florida 15 14 16

Nevada 10 15 19

North Carolina 1 3 4

Ohio 3 4 3

Virginia 3 5 5

Wisconsin 2 3 4

The Latino vote grew, especially in Florida and Nevada

Obama’s margins increased – especially in Florida and Colorado

Spread

2004 2008 2012

National +9D +36D +44D

Colorado +38D +23D +49D

Florida +12R +15D +22D

Nevada +21D +54D +45D

North Carolina - - +31D

Ohio +30D - +16 D

Virginia - +31D +32 D

Wisconsin +4D - +37D

Source: 2004-2012 Exit Polls 23

SHIFT AWAY FROM OBAMA AMONG ALL AGE GROUPS EXCEPT 30-44 YEAR OLDS

% of Electorate

2004 2008 2012

18-29 17 18 19

30-44 29 29 27

45-64 30 37 38

65+ 24 16 16


Spread

2004 2008 2012

18-29 +9D +34D +23D

30-44 +7R +6D +7D

45-64 +3R +1D +4R

65+ +8R +8R +12R

24

GENDER DIVIDE WIDENS TO 18 POINTS FROM 12 IN 2008


+11 R

+1D

+7R

+3D

+13D +11D

Men

Women

2004 2008 2012

25

PARTISAN DIVIDE REMAINS STEADY FROM 2008

2004 2008 2012

Democrat 38% 39% 38%

Independent 26% 29% 29%

Republican 38% 32% 32%

Party Split Even D+7 D+6


ROMNEY HAD CLEAR ADVANTAGE IN ADVERTISING…

Source: National Journal

$ millions

OBAMA ROMNEY Overall

Spending

Advantage Campaign

Outside

Spending Total Campaign

Outside

Spending Total

Colorado $29.8 $9.1 $38.3 $17.0 $24.5 $41.5 $3.1

Florida $66.7 $11.1 $77.7 $44.0 $60.3 $104.3 $26.6

Iowa $24.6 $4.0 $28.6 $16.5 $26.1 $42.6 $14.0

Nevada $22.2 $3.7 $25.8 $12.2 $20.2 $32.4 $6.6

New Hampshire $21.4 $.05 $21.5 $5.5 $11.9 $17.4 $4.2

North Carolina $24.2 $0 $24.2 $17.1 $28.1 $45.2 $21.0

Ohio $72.8 $18.9 $91.7 $43.2 $57.4 $100.6 $8.9

Virginia $52.9 $13.8 $66.8 $33.2 $49.3 $82.5 $15.7

Wisconsin $11.2 $3.6 $14.7 $7.7 $23.3 $31.0 $16.3

Barack Obama Total Spending: $389.3 million

Campaign Spending: $333.4 million PAC Spending: $64.2 million

Romney Swing State Advertising Spending Advantage +$108.2 million

Mitt Romney Total Spending: $497.5 million

Campaign Spending: $196.4 million PAC Spending: $301.0 million

27

…BUT OBAMA’S GROUND GAME ADVANTAGE WAS STAGGERING AND CRITICAL TO HIS SUCCESS

Source: Obama and Romney Websites

Swing State Field Offices

Obama Romney Obama

Advantage

Colorado 62 13 +49

Florida 104 47 +57

Iowa 67 13 +54

Nevada 26 11 +15

New

Hampshire 22 8 +14

North

Carolina 54 23 +31

Ohio 131 39 +92

Virginia 61 28 +33

Wisconsin 69 23 +46

Romney Field Offices

205

Obama Field Offices

596

28

OBAMA’S VOTER CONTACT EFFORTS GREATLY EXCEEDED ROMNEY’S AND MAY HAVE PERSUADED LATE DECIDERS

Source: Obama and Romney Campaigns

Obama Campaign made

125 million

personal contacts*

Romney Campaign made

50 million

personal contacts**

**Since the spring *Since the last election

When did you finally decide for whom to vote in the presidential election?

% Spread

Just today 3 +7D

In the last few days 6 +5D

In October 11 +1D

In September 9 +8R

Before that 69 +7D

29

CONGRESSIONAL RESULTS What Happened?

SENATE: PRE-ELECTION – RACES IN PLAY

Democrats: 53 Republicans: 47

OR

AK

KY

NM

MN

CO

GA

NC

Source: CNN 31

SENATE: POST-ELECTION – DEMS GAIN TWO SEATS

Democrats: 55 (+2) Republicans: 45 (-2)

OR

AK

KY

NM

MN

CO

GA

NC

NH

Warren(D): 53.7% Brown (R-i): 46.3%

King (D/I): 53.0% Summers (R): 30.6% Dill (D): 13.1%

Donelly (D): 49.9% Mourdock (R): 44.4%

Fischer(R): 58.2% Kerrey (D): 41.8%

Source: CNN 32

HOUSE OVERVIEW: NO MAJOR SHIFTS, POSSIBLE DEM PICKUP AS TEN RACES REMAIN UNDECIDED

Democrats Republicans

Pre-Election 256 179

Gains / Losses -64 +64

Results 192 (44%) 243 (56%)

2010

Source: CNN

Democrats Republicans

Pre-Election 193 242

Results 192 233

2012

10 Races Remain Undecided

33

LOOKING AHEAD What Does This Mean Going Forward?

HOT ISSUES FOR NEW CONGRESS

Obama Romney

EXPAND IT OR LEAVE IT AS IS (44%) 87% 11%

Expand it (26%) 92% 5%

Leave It As Is (18%) 80% 19%

REPEAL SOME OF IT OR ALL OF IT (49%) 15% 83%

Repeal some of it (24%) 27% 72%

Repeal all of it (25%) 3% 93%

2010 Health Care Law



Obama Romney

Increase For All (13%) 52% 44%

Increase Only On Income Over $250K

(47%) 70% 29%

Not Increase Them For Anyone (35%)

23% 75%

Income Taxes

Obama Romney

Favors the Wealthy (55%) 71% 26%

Is Fair to Most Americans (39%)

22% 77%

U.S. Economic

System



Obama Romney

Offered a chance to apply for legal

status (65%) 61% 37%

Deported to the country they came

from (28%) 24% 73%

Immigration

Should most illegal immigrants working in the United States be:



View of Government

2004 2008 2012

Government should do

more to solve problems 46% 51% 43%

Government is doing too

many things better left to

businesses and individuals

49% 43% 51%


39

GPG Research

GPG has a full-scale internal research team offering the full complement of qualitative and quantitative public opinion research services. We use research to inform message development and communication strategy, as well as to help clients assess and monitor critical issues and track the effectiveness of strategic communication campaigns.

GPG has a deep experience conducting research about complex political topics with diverse audiences. We go beyond the standard Q&A, using innovative, projective techniques to uncover key insights. The result is actionable research that helps shape our clients’ messaging and strategy.

For more information about this presentation

or to find out more about GPG’s research capabilities contact:

Joel Johnson ([email protected]) or David Cantor ([email protected])

APPENDIX

2007-2008 OBAMA vs. MCCAIN HEAD TO HEAD

41

DOW JONES Over The Past Year

November 7, 2011 12,068.39

November 25, 2011 11,257.55

November 6, 2012 13,245.68

October 5, 2012 13,610.15

Source: Google Finance 42

DOW JONES Since Late January 2009

January 16, 2009 8,281.22

November 6, 2012 13,245.68

March 6, 2011 6,626.94

October 5, 2012 13,610.15

Source: Google Finance 43

YOUTH VOTE WAS KEY TO OBAMA’S WINNING STRATEGY

% of Electorate

2004 2008 2012

National 17 18 19

Colorado 15 14 16

Florida 17 15 15

Iowa 17 17 15

Nevada 16 17 17

New Hampshire 16 18 19


Ohio 21 17 17

Virginia 17 21 19

Wisconsin 20 21 21

Spread

2004 2008 2012


Colorado +4 D - -

Florida +17 D +24D +35D

Iowa +7 D +25D +16D

Nevada +14 D +36D +38D

New Hampshire +14 D +24D +30D

North Carolina +13 D +48D +36D

Ohio +14 D +25D +29D

Virginia +8 D +21D +25D

Wisconsin +16 D +29D +24D


AFRICAN AMERICAN VOTE OVERWHELMINGLY TO SUPPORT OBAMA, TURNOUT UP IN OHIO

% of Electorate

2004 2008 2012

National 11 13 13

Florida 12 13 13

Nevada 7 10 9


Ohio 10 11 15

Virginia 21 20 20

Wisconsin 5 5 7

Spread

2004 2008 2012


Florida +73D +92D +91D

Nevada +73D +89D +82D

North Carolina +71D +90D +92D

Ohio +68D +95D +92D

Virginia +75D +84D +87D

Wisconsin +72D +82D +88D


INDEPENDENTS SHIFTED TOWARD ROMNEY, BUT THE SHIFT WAS NOT LARGE ENOUGH

% of Electorate

2004 2008 2012

National 26 29 29

Colorado 33 39 38

Florida 23 29 33

Iowa 30 33 34

Nevada 26 32 34



Ohio 25 30 31

Virginia 26 27 29

Wisconsin 27 29 32

Spread

2004 2008 2012

National +1D +8D +5R

Colorado +7D +10D +7R

Florida +16D +7D +1R

Iowa +8D +15D +14D

Nevada +12D +13D +8R

New Hampshire +14D +20D +7D

North Carolina +15R +21R +10R

Ohio +19D +8D +10R

Virginia +10R +1D +10R

Wisconsin +8D +19D +2D


SENIORS VOTED MORE GOP AND TURNED OUT IN SIMILAR NUMBERS TO 2008, BUT THERE WERE SOME TURNOUT CHANGES WITHIN SWING STATES

% of Electorate

2004 2008 2012

National 16 16 16

Colorado 24 13 17

Florida 27 22 25

Iowa 28 18 26

Nevada 25 15 18



Ohio 20 17 18

Virginia 19 11 14

Wisconsin 21 14 17

Spread

2004 2008 2012

National +5R +8R +11R

Colorado +13R +9R +14R

Florida +3R +8R +19R

Iowa +3D +1D Tie

Nevada Tie +13R +13R



Ohio +17R +11R +11R

Virginia +2D + 7R +7R

Wisconsin +8D Tie +5R


WHITE TURNOUT DOWN, SUPPORT FOR REPUBLICAN UP

% of Electorate

2004 2008 2012

National 77 74 72

Colorado 86 81 81

Florida 70 71 67

Iowa 96 91 93

Nevada 77 69 64



Ohio 86 83 79

Virginia 72 70 70

Wisconsin 90 89 86

Spread

2004 2008 2012

National +17R +12R +20R

Colorado +15R +2D +11R

Florida +15R +14R +27R

Iowa +1R +4D +4D

Nevada +12R +8R +13R



Ohio +12R +6R +15R

Virginia +36R +21R +23R

Wisconsin +5R +9D +4R


gpg 2012 post election

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