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DESCRIPTIONGOTV UNIVERSES. Pilar Weiss New Organizing Institute. Introductions. NOI O n Demand You Norms. FOLLOWING THE LAW. Elections.neworganizing.com. FOLLOWING THE LAW. www.afj.org. Today’s presenter. Pilar Weiss. Civic Engagement Director New Organizing Institute. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
GOTV UNIVERSESPilar WeissNew Organizing InstitutenoiOnDemand1IntroductionsNOI On Demand
noiOnDemandNOINOI on DemandIntroduce Hope who will do the polls and manage the chat boxParticipants (c3, c4, candidate/party), intros in chat boxNorms for Webinar: chat, raise hands, there are no stupid questions2FOLLOWING THE LAW
Elections.neworganizing.comnoiOnDemandHire legal adviceAlliance for Justice (c3)OGEA3FOLLOWING THE LAWwww.afj.org
noiOnDemandHire legal adviceAlliance for Justice (c3)OGEA4Pilar Weiss
Todays presenterCivic Engagement DirectorNew Organizing Institute
noiOnDemandTodays presentation will cover building Get Out the Vote (GOTV) universes, building capacity, and planning backwards to build up to scale.ObjectivenoiOnDemandIntroductionBasic TermsBuilding UniversesCapacity, Capacity, CapacityInstituting a TimelineMaking AdjustmentsQ&AAgendanoiOnDemandGOTV - Get Out The Vote refers to activities organizations and campaigns take in the run up to an election to maximize the number of supporters that turn out to vote.Universe - The set of voters you will attempt to turn out to vote on election day.Modeling Scores A prediction (based on voter file, polling, and commercial data) as to how a voter will behave.
Some basic termsnoiOnDemandBUILDING UNIVERSESnoiOnDemand9Different vote goals for different kinds of campaignsCandidates 50% + 1Ballot Initiatives different states/localities, different lawsCampaignsSpecific geographyIncreasing turnout in a specific community or demographicSETTING YOUR VOTE GOALnoiOnDemand
noiOnDemandBuilding power in your community comes in lots of different forms! Define your win:Increasing turnout of a specific demographicTaking responsibility for a specific region, neighborhood, set of precinctsIncreasing civic engagement in a community doesnt have to be 50% + 1 but it should still be based on metrics!What is the vote deficit youre going to fill?
Setting a non-candidate vote goalnoiOnDemandBUILDING your universenoiOnDemandC3 disclaimer. Partisanship is one option for targeting and if appropriate can be used. If you are running a campaign where you are able to use partisanship scores, can be helpful. If not, there are numberous other options.
Focus on vote history and demographics as applicable to most campaigns.13SUPPORTAGAINSTUNKNOWNSUPPORTERVOTE HISTORYFREQUENTOpponents who always votePersuadables who always voteSupporters who always voteSPORADICOpponents who sometimes votePersuadables who sometimes voteSupporters who sometimes voteNEVEROpponents who never votePersuadables who never voteSupporters who never voteNEWNewly registered opponentsNewly registered persuadablesNewly registered supportersTARGETING MATRIXnoiOnDemandHOW DO we get to our vote goal?Identify our vote deficitIdentify how were going to contact votersWhen do we transition from an ID/persuasion phase to GOTV phase?How many GOTV passes will we make to get to our vote goal?
noiOnDemandRefer to yesterdays
15Having a baseline for contact ratesPhones 10-20%Canvass 25-35%
Test contact rates theyll differ by geography, time of day, list quality.
CONTACT RATESnoiOnDemandContact calculusContact GoalContact RateAttempts GoalnoiOnDemandWe know that goal # from our universe and the contact rate. Go over averages and discussion of changes time of day, neighborhoods, contact rate averages.17Building capacitynoiOnDemandOrganizational CapacityStaffVolunteersGrowth PotentialKey MetricsCanvass Method - Phones or CanvassingContact Rate AssumptionsShift Length & Estimated Production
Capacity building blocksnoiOnDemandVolunteer calculusAttempts GoalCalls per ShiftShifts GoalnoiOnDemandWe just calculated the attempts goal and should have defined the contacts/shift. This will get us to a sense of the # of shifts we need to fill. So how do we get there.20PhasesTransition from persuasion to GOTVEstablishing # of GOTV passesCalculating a timeline for each phase based on contact rate & capacityRecognizing the role of Early Vote and Vote-By-Mail.Calculating ramp up & escalation in each phase, including key benchmarks.BUILDING A TIMELINEnoiOnDemandEvents and activities that build vol capacity. Waves of staff.21timelinenoiOnDemand
noiOnDemandIt happens on every campaign so embrace the adjustment phase!
Recognizing fluctuations in contact rateAssess reality of shift length and shift productionVolunteer and staff capacity growth and schedule
Making AdjustmentsnoiOnDemandContact rates may change.Shift lengths and production (days, weather, holidays, reality).