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GOTV UNIVERSES

Pilar WeissNew Organizing Institute

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INTRODUCTIONS

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You

Norms

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FOLLOWING THE LAWELECTIONS.NEWORGANIZING.COM

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FOLLOWING THE LAWWWW.AFJ.ORG

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Pilar Weiss

TODAY’S PRESENTER

Civic Engagement DirectorNew Organizing Institute

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OBJECTIVEToday’s presentation will cover building Get Out the Vote (GOTV) universes, building capacity, and planning backwards to build up to scale.

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AGENDAIntroductionBasic TermsBuilding UniversesCapacity, Capacity, Capacity…Instituting a TimelineMaking AdjustmentsQ&A

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• GOTV - Get Out The Vote refers to activities organizations and campaigns take in the run up to an election to maximize the number of supporters that turn out to vote.

• Universe - The set of voters you will attempt to turn out to vote on election day.

• Modeling Scores – A prediction (based on voter file, polling, and commercial data) as to how a voter will behave.

SOME BASIC TERMS

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BUILDING UNIVERSES

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• Different vote goals for different kinds of campaigns– Candidates – 50% + 1– Ballot Initiatives – different

states/localities, different laws– Campaigns• Specific geography• Increasing turnout in a specific community

or demographic

SETTING YOUR VOTE GOAL

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• Building power in your community comes in lots of different forms! Define your win:– Increasing turnout of a specific

demographic– Taking responsibility for a specific

region, neighborhood, set of precincts• Increasing civic engagement in a

community doesn’t have to be 50% + 1 but it should still be based on metrics!

• What is the vote deficit you’re going to fill?

SETTING A NON-CANDIDATE VOTE GOAL

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BUILDING YOUR UNIVERSE

MODELING

PARTISANSHIP

DEMOGRAPHICS

ID/SUPPORT

VOTE HISTORY

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SUPPORT

AGAINST UNKNOWN SUPPORTER

VOTE HISTORY

FREQUENT Opponents who always vote

Persuadables who always vote

Supporters who always vote

SPORADIC Opponents who sometimes

vote

Persuadables who sometimes

voteSupporters who sometimes vote

NEVER Opponents who never vote

Persuadables who never vote

Supporters who never vote

NEW Newly registered opponents

Newly registered persuadables

Newly registered supporters

TARGETING MATRIX

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HOW DO WE GET TO OUR VOTE GOAL?

• Identify our vote deficit• Identify how we’re going to contact

voters• When do we transition from an

ID/persuasion phase to GOTV phase?• How many GOTV passes will we

make to get to our vote goal?

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• Having a baseline for contact rates– Phones – 10-20%– Canvass – 25-35%

• Test contact rates – they’ll differ by geography, time of day, list quality.

CONTACT RATES

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9,000 15% 50,000

CONTACT CALCULUS

Contact Goal

Contact Rate

Attempts Goal

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BUILDING CAPACITY

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• Organizational Capacity– Staff– Volunteers– Growth Potential

• Key Metrics– Canvass Method - Phones or Canvassing– Contact Rate Assumptions– Shift Length & Estimated Production

CAPACITY BUILDING BLOCKS

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50,000 80 625

VOLUNTEER CALCULUS

Attempts Goal

Calls per Shift Shifts Goal

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• Phases– Transition from persuasion to GOTV– Establishing # of GOTV passes– Calculating a timeline for each phase

based on contact rate & capacity• Recognizing the role of Early Vote

and Vote-By-Mail.• Calculating ramp up & escalation in

each phase, including key benchmarks.

BUILDING A TIMELINE

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TIMELINE

Final ID/Target Universe

Initial GOTV Pass

Additional GOTV Passes

Early Vote/ VBM

Election Day

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It happens on every campaign so embrace the adjustment phase!

• Recognizing fluctuations in contact rate

• Assess reality of shift length and shift production

• Volunteer and staff capacity growth and schedule

MAKING ADJUSTMENTS

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QUESTIONS?

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