[email protected] pictured) why there is no rush for ......mathura, meerut, ghaziabad, gautam...

SURAJEET DAS GUPTA

On July 15, prospective bidders forthe new greenfield airport inJewar, in Uttar Pradesh, have

been called for a pre-bid meeting to clar-ify their doubts. The airport, to be builtin public-private partnership mode, isbeing positioned as an alternative forcitizens in the National Capital Territory,including the neighbouring cities ofMathura, Meerut, Ghaziabad, GautamBudh Nagar, among others, which havetill now had just one choice for an airport— the Delhi airport with itsthree terminals, around 80km from Jewar.

But with burgeoning traf-fic in Delhi and just three run-ways, it is already facingcapacity constraints — espe-cially during peak hours. InFY19, the airport handledaround 70 million passengers.

The Noida InternationalAirport Ltd (NIAL), which isoverseeing the project, had initiallypitched for completion of the airport byApril 2023, based on the deadline sug-gested by Price Waterhouse Coopers(PwC), which conducted the techno-eco-nomic survey for the project. But mostgovernment officials now believe thisdeadline will have to be pushed to 2024as acquisition of land is still a work inprogress. Besides, the earlier deadline ofhaving a financial closure of the projectby 31 March 2019 is long gone. NIAL,however, is moving quickly. It wants toclose the bids by November and awardthe project by January 2020.

The question which potential infras-tructure players who are interested in bid-

ding are grappling with is whether Jewarwould be a viable business proposal in2024. Many say that the airport shouldbe built only after the large capacityincrease being undertaken at the Delhiairport is absorbed. A top executive of anairport infrastructure company says:“There is no second guessing whetherDelhi needs a second airport or not. Butthe issue is whether it should be opera-tional by 2024 or at least three to five yearslater, when there is sufficient demand dueto Delhi airport exhausting its expandedcapacity too. Otherwise, the substantial

investment made will remainidle. So what is the hurry?"

He has a point. The DelhiInternational Airport Limited(DIAL) has embarked upon amassive expansion to increaseits capacity from 70 millionpassengers per annum to 130million (both arrivals anddepartures together). Andbased on their submissions tothe government, they say that

this is enough to take care of the passengertraffic from Delhi and the adjoining areastill 2034. That is based on the fact thatthe annual passenger growth in the lastfive years in Delhi has been 10-11 per centper annum, and it is expected to slowdown as the passenger base increases.

So what is DIAL offering? Accordingto sources, DIAL, which has startedimplementing the first phase of expan-sion, will see passenger capacity rise from70 million to 100 million per annum byMarch 2021. The airport is putting up afourth runway and expanding terminalID, besides building a cross taxiway. Thiswill increase the number of slots availablefor departure and arrival at peak times.

In the next phase, a fourth terminal willbe built, taking the capacity to 116 millionpassengers, and further to 130 millionper annum after a few tweaks in operat-ing procedures.

If this plan holds good then who doesJewar serve? Based on the Request forProposal (RFP), the first phase of theJewar airport would have a capacity of12 million passengers per annum, goingup to 70 million by 2039. The cost forthe first phase, according to NIAL, is~4,588 crore.

PwC, which prepared the feasibilityreport on behalf of the authority, clearlythinks Jewar airport is viable. It expectsthat in the initial period the spillover traf-fic at peak hours in Delhi (because slotswill not be available) will shift to Jewarand it will be able to garner 4.9 millionpassengers in the first year, going up to14 million by 2029. It estimates that by2029-30 the spillover traffic will pick upsignificantly as Delhi reaches capacity.

For a substantial number of passen-gers coming from the hinterland, PwCsays, Jewar will be the closest airport.Based on their research of passenger

profiles at the Delhi airport, currently57 per cent of the passengers come fromNCT of Delhi and 11 to 12 per cent arefrom the districts in Uttar Pradesh likeGautam Budh Nagar, Ghaziabad andAgra. Also, 18 per cent of the interna-tional travellers to Delhi visit Agra and60 per cent of them want an interna-tional airport near to the destination. Italso says that by 2029-30, the demandfor air travel from the hinterland will hit115 million per annum, and a large num-ber of these passengers will go via Jewar.

Even airlines, especially the budget

ones, see an opportunity in offering dif-ferential pricing to customers taking aflight from Jewar compared to Delhiduring peak hours. But they admit theywill require enough customers from thecatchment area to provide them with adecent passenger load factor before theycan decide to fly on specific routes.

What makes the debate interestingis that the airport is less than 150 kilo-metres away from Delhi. So DIAL,according to the rules, would get a lim-ited first right of refusal to build the air-port. In simple terms, it means that ifthe number that it quotes for revenueper passenger (bidding is based now onthis formula rather than the older sys-tem of revenue share) is within 10 percent of the highest bidder, it will be givena chance to match that bid.

If it wins, the question to ask is: Howwill it fit in with its expansion of Delhi,which is going full-on? If it doesn’t win,what would be interesting to see is thestrategy of a new player to make Jewara worthwhile business model. Or, willboth prefer to see the project take offcommercially much later on?

8 ISSUES AND INSIGHTS>

MUMBAI | TUESDAY, 9 JULY 2019

> CHINESE WHISPERS

> LETTERS

Artificial intelligence (AI)is making rapid inroadsinto the Indian farm sec-

tor. The ease with which farmersare adopting it indicates that itwould soon become a major pro-fessional guide for the farmers.A key reason for the farmers’growing interest in AI is the grad-

ual transformation of traditionalfarming into smart agriculturewhich requires knowhow andinformation that goes beyondtheir conventional knowledgeand wisdom. They now need reli-able, forward-looking and prob-lem-solving advice which theycan get from the AI. Moreover,the rural youth, especially theeducated ones, feel more com-fortable with mechanised, tech-nology-driven high-value agricul-ture than the tedious traditionalknowledge-based routine farm-ing practiced by their forefathers.

Mobile phones have pene-trated deep into the ruralareas. About 30 million farm-ers are estimated to own suchphones already. Their count isprojected to swell rapidly. Theway has, thus, been paved forthe AI service providers, suchas public sector farm research

organisations, informationtechnology companies andstartups in this field, to gener-ate and pass on situation-spe-cific and need-based contentsto the farmers.

Microsoft is said to be work-ing with Indian farmers inAndhra Pradesh to dispenseadvisory services in areas likecrop sowing, land manage-ment, fertiliser applicationand similar others. The localarm of another multinationalcompany, IBM India, last weeksigned a “statement of intent”with the agriculture ministryto take up a pilot project on theutilisation of AI and weathertechnology-driven solutions inagriculture. This project wouldoperate in one district each of Madhya Pradesh, Gujaratand Maharashtra.

This apart, a large number

of startups have come up todisseminate the next genera-tion technologies in severalcritical fields of agriculture.Some of these enterprises aredeploying sensors and infor-mation technology tools tomonitor crop and soil healthfor the benefit of the farmers.Some others are engaged ingenerating data-based advi-sories on the time of sowing,besides issuing alerts againstpotential risks. Yet another cat-egory is of startups collecting,analysing and providing infor-mation on input supplies andoutput marketing chains.

Significantly, the agricul-ture ministry, as also theIndian Council of AgriculturalResearch (ICAR) and the statefarm universities, are puttingin special efforts to populariseAI to improve productivity,production and profitability offarming. An inter-ministerialcommittee, set up by the agri-culture ministry to suggestways and means to doublefarmers’ income, has under-scored the role the digital tech-nology can play in making

Indian agriculture lucrative.The technologies identified bythis panel for this purposeinclude AI, big data analytics,block chain technology andinternet-of-things (IoT).

The ICAR recently broughtout a special edition of its pop-ular publication “IndianFarming” (March 2019 issue)devoted exclusively to AI. Thisapex farm research body hasbeen instrumental in develop-ing over 100 easy-to-use andfarmers-friendly mobile appscovering different areas of agri-culture and its allied activities.Of these apps, 42 deal withmainstream agriculture, 27with horticulture, 10 animalhusbandry and veterinary sci-ences, six dairying, one poultry,three fisheries, 17 naturalresource management and 11integrated farming systems.They carry valuable informa-tion on agronomic practices,prices of different farm com-modities, weather forecasts andwarnings and other kinds ofadvisory information.

The “Kisan Suvidha” mobileapp is a comprehensive portal

carrying useful information onmost aspects of modern farm-ing. Its contents compriseweather-related information,including extreme weatheralerts; market prices; plant pro-tection methods; dealers ofinputs like seeds, pesticides,fertilisers and farm machinery;soil health cards; cold storesand warehouses; and veteri-nary centres and diagnosticlaboratories. The market intel-ligence available through thisapp contains vital informationon the prevailing price anddemand trends to let the farm-ers take informed decisions onselling their produce at theright time and at the right price.Another app, called “mKisan”,conveys agriculture-relatedcounsel to the registered farm-ers through the short messageservice (SMS) and voice mes-sages in local languages.

However, these are still earlydays of the application of AI inagriculture. But given the impres-sive track record, the future ofthis field seems quite promising.

[email protected]

AI in agricultureGiven the impressive track record, the future of this fieldseems promising

No more Vyapam in MP

The Congress government of MadhyaPradesh has decided to wind upVyapam or the Vyawasayik ParikshaMandal, which was later renamed asProfessional Examination Board (PEB).The government is going to replace itwith Rajya Karmchari Chayan Ayog(State Staff Selection Commission).According to Chief Minister Kamal Nath(pictured), Vyapam is a symbol of “theBharatiya Janata Party’s scams in thestate” and that’s why the governmenthas decided to close it down. This isnot the first time that the stategovernment is trying to disownVyapam. In a previous attempt in2015, the then BJP government hadchanged its name to ProfessionalExamination Board. Shivraj SinghChouhan, who was chief minister, hadsaid that the name Vyapam wasdisgraceful and was bringingdishonour to the state.

Extended quarantineJournalists were in for a surprise onMonday when they reached North Blockto meet officials. They wanted to seekclarity on the fine print of the UnionBudget 2019-20 presented by FinanceMinister Nirmala Sitharaman on July 5.However, none of them — not eventhose with a Press Information Bureau(PIB) card — was allowed to enterdespite there being no intimation fromthe PIB. The finance ministry is usuallyout of bounds for visitors during the“quarantine” period, which begins amonth before the presentation of theBudget. It seems now the "ban" hasbeen extended for an unspecifiedperiod.

Unhelpful helpline With the July-end deadline to file taxreturns approaching, the tax departmenthelpline has been getting frantic calls fromtaxpayers. But the Aayakar SamparkKendra (a single-window systemregistering all taxpayer application/return)number seems to be stuck in a time warpand keeps asking callers to choosebetween Hindi and English to proceedfurther. No matter which language thecaller chooses, the helpline refuses to"help". And if by mistake, a taxpayer callsthe number late in the night or early in themorning, the automated voice responseasks him or her to call between 8 am and10 pm. The tax department might consideranswering queries over email like they doin the US, where this facility is availablethroughout the year.

Karnataka crisis

The fast-paced political developmentsin Karnataka are not quite unexpect-ed. They are a fallout, if not a corol-lary, of the Bharatiya Janata Party’s(BJP’s) return to power at the Centreand its better-than-expected perfor-mance in the Lok Sabha election inthe state. At a deeper level, they bearout the fact that little divides politicalleaders in our country. Self-interest isthe driving factor and the name ofthe game. Opportunism is a “virtue”if it serves their self-interest.Deserting a party on whose symbolone won an election or defecting to(or playing into the hands of) anotherparty is not considered somethingunethical or shameful.

The BJP denies any hand in theresignation of nine Congress andthree Janata Dal (Secular) [JD(S)]MLAs from the Assembly to avoid thecharge of horse-trading. But it isunbelievable that these MLAs wouldhave decided to resign withoutinducements from the party.Speculation is now rife that morefrom the Congress and JD(S) are likelyto resign to pave the way for the for-mation of a BJP government.

G.David Milton Maruthancode

No vision, no themeThe Budget 2019 makes us lookaskance at a government which hasbeen voted in for the second time withan even bigger mandate. The presen-

tation, instead, was of a hesitant coali-tion government. There was no over-arching theme for Modi 2.0 nor wasthere a delineation of persisting coreconcerns of the economy A virtue hadbeen made of modesty. At the least,long-running problems of indifferentgrowth and fresh job creation oughtto have had mention. Perhaps, thegovernment has given up on both.

Consumption is no longer fuelledby the lower income segment whichis losing its purchasing power. Themiddle one keeps away from whitegoods due to uncertainties about the

future and the upper strata is awaitingbetter times. Spending does not createwealth, production does.

Here was an opportunity to setdirection towards these by promotinga healthy pool of savings to add wealthand jobs. An astute mix in policyapproach that channels funds to thelower strata, enables the next to saveand calibrates tax incentives for thejob-creating capital is important. Taxsops for an ailing housing sector mayhelp reduce inventory but not scale

up accretion of jobs. The Budget wasone of listing administrative orders forease of compliance and was nowherenear laying out a long-range vision oreven a contemporary theme.

R Narayanan Navi Mumbai

Name-changing spree On July 26, 2018, the West BengalAssembly had passed a resolutionunanimously to change the name ofthe state as Bangla. In 2011, a sugges-tion had come to change the name ofthe state as Paschimbanga. But thesuggestion was turned down by theUPA government. In 2016, it wasreportedly proposed to rename thestate as Bengal in English, Bangla inBengali and Bangal in Hindi. Finally,the state insisted to change the nameas Bangla which was turned down bythe Centre recently.

The NDA government is justifiedin rejecting the proposal as the nameis “part and parcel” of Bangladesh.There have been many changes ofnames of Indian cities. But no govern-ment in India has thought of changingthe name of India as Bharat. It will benice to rename India as Bharat.

K V Seetharamiah Hassan

Letters can be mailed, faxed or e-mailed to: The Editor, Business StandardNehru House, 4 Bahadur Shah Zafar Marg New Delhi 110 002 Fax: (011) 23720201 · E-mail: [email protected] letters must have a postal address and telephonenumber

> HAMBONE

The first two major economic doc-uments of the new government -— the Economic Survey and the

Union Budget — did not contain anysignificant new measures on jobs.

The Economic Survey made sugges-tions on restricting size-based benefits toinfant micro, small and medium enter-prises (MSMEs)and denying these to thoseMSMEs that do not grow even after yearsof such benefits. The suggestion is sensiblebut, it does not directly address the prob-lem of jobs. Will infant MSMEs generatesufficient jobs to more than offset the lossof jobs caused by the possible shuttingdown of the dwarf MSMEs post benefits?

The Economic Survey is right ineffectively saying that it does not makesense to perpetually subsidise smallfirms that fail to grow — the dwarfs.But, this is not a solution to the jobsproblem we face. Possibly, this is noteven proposed as a solution to the jobsproblem. But, then there are no solu-tions from the government on the jobsfront. There weren’t any direct sugges-tions in the Bharatiya Janata Party’s(BJP’s) election manifesto. There werenone in the Budget presentations onFebruary 1 and there are none in the mostrecent Economic Survey and the Budgetpresented on July 5.

The finance minister's speech talksabout preparing the youth of the country

to meet demand for skilled workers in aworld that is likely to face labour shortages.But, it does not talk about jobs, directly.

The government has released thePeriodic Labour Force Survey resultsfor 2017-18 and also for urban India inthe first three quarters of 2018-19. Yet,there is no discussion about these inany of the economic documents sincetheir release.

This stoic silence is intriguing.The monetary stance has turned

accommodative. Implicitly, the greaterpreference for growth compared toinflation control is a positive foremployment generation. Monetary pol-icy is not known to take unemploymentrates explicitly into consideration.Perhaps, it’s time it did so.

What do the fiscal numbers tell us?An acceleration in the rate of increasein government spending would be apositive for employment generation.The finance minister’s speech did notbetray any strategic position in the mat-ter. Besides, the speech was almostbereft of any quantitative data. It didnot state what the government wouldspend or what would the fiscal deficitbe. This was a first.

Beyond the speech are the detailedBudget papers where the data can befound. But, calculating the growth in cen-tral government spending has becomemore confounding than it usually is. Thisis because the budget papers do notrecognise the fiscal statistics for 2018-19released by Comptroller and AuditorGeneral of India (CAG). The CAG releasedthese estimates in May 2019, more thanthree months after the Interim Budgethad presented data for 2018-19 onFebruary 1, 2019. Yet, the Budget present-ed in July does not recognise these. Itcontinues to use the data it presented onFebruary 1 although it did have more up-to-date numbers from the CAG whichwere even used in the Economic Survey.

This is important because the differ-ence between the numbers presentedin the budget and those provided by theCAG is very big. The udget estimate oftotal central government expenditurein 2018-19 was ~24.42 trillion. Therevised estimates presented by the thenfinance minister, Piyush Goyal, washigher, at ~24.57 trillion. But, on May31, 2019, the CAG released the fiscal esti-mates for the year ended earlier inMarch 2019. This placed the central gov-ernment expenditure much lower at~23.11 trillion. The difference betweenthe estimates given by the governmentin February and those released by itsofficial agency in May is a significant~1.5 trillion. However, the FinanceMinister, Nirmala Sitharaman, does notrecognise this fall in central govern-ment spending in 2018-19 compared toits revised estimates. The Budget paperspresented by her stick to the earlierrevised estimate of ~24.57 trillion.

This matters because we need tointerpret the ~27.86 trillion that thegovernment says it will spend in 2019-20. Should we compare these to the~24.57 trillion that the finance ministersays were spent in 2018-19 or shouldwe compare these to the ~23.11 trillionthat the CAG says were spent in thesame year.

The former implies a growth of 13.4per cent. But, the latter implies agrowth of 20.6 per cent. The formerwould be close to business as usual.But, the latter implies a big increase ingovernment spending of a scale notseen since 2008-09. This was when thegovernment responded to a globalfinancial crisis with a 24 per centincrease in central government spend-ing. Does the government see such abig crisis today? Unlikely. But, the devilin the data must be exorcised

The author is the MD & CEO of CMIE

Devil in the data

MAHESH VYAS

ON THE JOB

Why there is no rush for JewarThe alternative to Delhi airport will be ready for operationsby 2024, but it may still be long before the National CapitalRegion needs another airport

FARM VIEWSURINDER SUD

1 2 3 4MPPA: Million passengers per annum Source: PwC

12

30

50

PASSENGER FLOWJewar airport's passenger handlingcapacity (MPPA in phases)

70

OPINION 9> STAY INFORMED THROUGH THE DAY @ WWW.BUSINESS-STANDARD.COM

Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman struck the right chord in the verybeginning of her Budget speech when she stated that the governmentdoes not look down upon legitimate profit earning. This was a welcomeremark. Businesses in India have been marred by licence raj for far too

long and making money has not always been appreciated. To her credit, MsSitharaman extended the benefit of the lower corporate tax to all but 0.7 percent of companies, though the expectation was that the benefit will flow to all.

But the feel-good effect of the announcement did not last long, because theminister proposed an increase in the surcharge for taxpayers earning more than~2 crore. According to the proposal, the effective tax rate for individuals with ataxable income of ~2-5 crore and above ~5 crore will go up by about 3 and 7 per-centage points, respectively. While the proposal will affect only a small minorityof taxpayers, the idea is flawed at multiple levels and should have been avoided.It is estimated to improve income tax collection by less than ~3,000 crore.

At a broader level, this goes against the basic idea of simplifying the taxstructure. Although various kinds of cess and surcharge have been imposed inthe past, this Budget has taken it to another level. Clearly, a reversal will bedifficult for political reasons. It is not clear as to why the government intends toundo a system that has worked well. Experience shows that collection tends toincrease when rates are lower.

It is well accepted that the government needs more revenue to increasecapital expenditure and fulfil its social obligations. Therefore, in order to increasecollection, the focus should be on compliance and broadening the tax base. Theidea should be to encourage people to pay taxes and improve the tax adminis-tration to detect noncompliance. While there has been some progress on thecompliance and administration part, regular revisions in exemptions and rebateslimit the possibility of meaningfully increasing the base. For instance, the InterimBudget gave a full tax rebate to individuals with a taxable income up to ~5 lakh.The revenue impact of this was more than ~18,000 crore.

What is desirable is that instead of depending on large payouts from a smallnumber of taxpayers, India should move to a system where a large number ofpeople pay a moderate rate of tax. Again, history shows that a higher rate of tax-ation results in evasion. It is possible that the super-rich section of taxpayerswith resources at their command would look for ways to reduce their tax liability.It would be interesting to see the actual resource mobilisation on account of thenew surcharge.

Further, if the government believes that the rich should be contributingmore, it should work on revising tax slabs. This will keep the structure simpleand transparent, and the states will also get their fair share. In fact, the governmenthas made the job of the panel working on a new direct tax code more difficult.Hopefully, the panel will recommend simplifying direct taxes, and the govern-ment will find it convincing. In order to grow at higher rates, it is imperative thatIndia has a predictable, stable, and moderate rate of taxation.

A push too hardDigital payment mandates should be avoided

Budget 2019-20 continued the government’s push towards digitisingthe Indian economy, particularly digital payments. To further corralthe remaining cash-based sections of the economy, Finance MinisterNirmala Sitharaman said withdrawals from a particular bank account

totalling more than ~1 crore in a year would require tax to be deducted at source.There can be few objections to this notion — certainly, it is far less draconianthan other measures that were being proposed at the time of demonetisation.

However, other aspects of the Budget’s policy outline for digital paymentsshould be re-examined. The finance minister pointed out that “low-cost digitalmodes of payment such as BHIM UPI, UPI-QR Code, Aadhaar Pay, certain Debitcards, NEFT, RTGS” could be used to “promote a less-cash economy” and, there-fore, proposed that “business establishments with [an] annual turnover [of] morethan ~50 crore shall offer such low-cost digital modes of payment to their cus-tomers and no charges or Merchant Discount Rate (MDR) shall be imposed oncustomers as well as merchants”.

This essentially forces medium-sized shops to offer this set of digital paymentmechanisms to their customers. First of all, the lobbying potential under suchmandates is enormous and should as a matter of principle be avoided. But moreimportantly, it should be left to the shopkeepers, the payment companies, andthe financial structure — particularly banks — to make decisions based on theircommercial interest. Only then will a sustainable digital payments architectureevolve in India. A payments architecture that is based on government mandatesand regulations will be inefficient and unremunerative. The only sustainabledigital financial architecture will be one in which each step of the chain — fromcustomers and merchants to banks and companies — will share in monetarygains from greater efficiency. This requires voluntary rather than forced switchingto digital modes at every step.

It could be argued that there are significant external benefits to the govern-ment stepping in to speed up the transition to a less-cash economy, and thatonce such a transition is completed, it will pay for itself. Such arguments, partic-ularly after the demonetisation experiment, should be viewed with caution. Atthe very least, the costs of any such mandates should also be scrutinised.

Essentially, if the government perceives that there are broader benefits to amove towards a less-cash economy, then economic logic dictates that it shouldbear the costs itself. The elimination of the MDR, a major source of revenuefrom some digital payments, flies in the face of this logic. In this case, the financeminister said that the Reserve Bank of India and the banks would “absorb thesecosts from the savings that will accrue to them on account of handling less cashas people move to these digital modes of payment”. If those savings existed,then banks could surely come to their own decisions on the move and should beallowed to do so. Therefore, the chances are that the savings are, in fact, too farin the future or accrue to the economy more generally. In that case, it is the gov-ernment that should find some way of bearing the cost of its policy priorities,rather than pushing them on to banks or merchants.

Volume XXIII Number 233

MUMBAI | TUESDAY, 9 JULY 2019

The Economic Survey, which is by tradition pre-sented the day before the Union Budget, is fre-quently more forward-looking and economi-

cally sensible than the actual Budget. Naturally: Theformer is written by economists and the latter bybureaucrats, even if both want to please the samepoliticians. There’s also the small matter of the Budgethaving to live in the real world, while Surveys can live— as many economists do — in the world of the ideal.

Even so, the differences between this Budget andthe Survey in their broad approach are startling. Andworrying, because they throw into sharp relief thefalse assumptions that have taken hold within thecorridors of power in New Delhi. Both the Survey andthe Budget sought to revive investment as a majorimmediate priority. But the big diver-gence is in terms of strategy: TheSurvey correctly argued that exportsgrowth is indispensable to anyapproach that puts investment first.

Investment can best be fed by asecular increase in the share of sav-ings in the economy. But that leadsto a conflict: Private sector invest-ment will not take off without thepromise of demand, and increasingsavings conflicts with the aim ofincreasing consumption demanddomestically. Here’s what the Surveysays: “With the share of consumptionin GDP constrained by the high levelof savings, domestic consumption can, at best, act asa force-multiplier when high income growth feedsconsumption. So, where would the final demand forthe large capacities created by high investment comefrom? The answer is exports. This is why an aggressiveexport strategy must be a part of any investment-driven growth model.”

This analysis cannot be faulted. In fact, it broadlyfits with the experience of almost every major econ-omy that has successfully graduated to upper-mid-dle-income status or beyond. India’s recent economic

history demonstrates the difficulties of reviving invest-ment when domestic consumption demand is theonly justification for new investment. Even a con-sumption boom — driven in part by low fuel prices— has not solved the over-capacity problem facedby much of the private sector, which in turn hasretarded investment growth. Exports were static inreal terms since 2014, and growth recently has beenhalting, tentative, and easily reversed. As a conse-quence, sustainable growth has remained elusive. Itwill remain so as long as we seek a consumption-driven growth strategy.

The Budget has taken a different approach fromthe Survey. It has certainly attempted to fix the supplyside when it comes to investment — for example, it

includes measures intended toreduce the appropriation of house-hold savings by the government forits own revenue expenditure. Butthere is no change in strategy on thedemand side. India is to remainfocused on creating and protectingdomestic demand as an inducementfor investors. This is an error of his-toric magnitude.

What would draw investment toIndia? The possibility that it is agood place to produce not just for anot-yet-mature domestic market,but also for the world. Global supply

chains are in flux, thanks to tensionsbetween the United States and the People’s Republicof China, and India currently has less than two percent of world trade: This is the moment to cash in.Even if the world trade is growing slowly, a labour-surplus country with such a small proportion of worldtrade compared to its population and resources shouldbe easily able to grow its exports by cutting into theshare of other economies — notably China’s.

Yet, if such investment is to take off, it needs a sta-ble policy environment and a sense that it can effec-tively be part of global supply chains. From the current

government’s point of view, the main constraint wasIndia’s problematic infrastructure. This is only par-tially correct. As the Survey also argues, policy stabilityis equally important. And so is competitiveness. Howdoes the Budget address these two constraints?

It does not address them at all. It continues tohand out step-motherly treatment to large companies,which are excluded from the 25 per cent base rate ofcorporate income tax. These are the companies thatare most competitive, productive, and which createthe world-class jobs we need. If we need large-scalejob creation, we need large-scale investment fromthe largest companies. A disproportionately high rateof tax targeted at precisely these companies renderslocating in India for exports uncompetitive. Whatwould help is labour law reform — as the Surveypoints out, it has helped states such as Rajasthan. Butalthough the Budget mentions once again the ratio-nalisation of labour law into four codes, a commit-ment to flexible labour markets at the national levelcontinues to be elusive.

When it comes to policy certainty, the Budgetmakes things worse. In global supply chains, tariffstability is crucial — you don’t want to invest some-where which has the reputation of fiddling aroundwith tariffs that might at any moment make it difficultfor you to manage your margins or to meet your dead-lines. A simple, competitive rate of taxation and tar-iffing is what is needed. But this Budget continuesthe trend, visible in previous Budgets under the Modigovernment, of arbitrary changes to import duties.Worse, it specifies that the purpose of these changesis the protection of the domestic market. As a signalto greenfield investors, this could not be worse. It isclear that India is interested only in its own con-sumers, and not in producing for the world. This fitsinto an entire set of recent policies, which target for-eign investors across the board — whether in e-com-merce, like Amazon, or in payments, like the creditcard majors. Given this aggressive and protectionistattitude, it is odd that the Budget speech also includ-ed an invitation to “global companies through trans-parent competitive bidding to set up mega-manu-facturing plants in sunrise and advanced technologyareas”. The wording is puzzling in the extreme.Bidding over which asset? Over subsidies? Free land?This is typical. First make the economy so uncom-petitive that nobody wants to come without induce-ments. Then come up with inducements, so thatpower rests with politicians and bureaucrats.

India needs an investment revival not just in theshort term but in the long term. It needs to renderits over-capacity problem irrelevant. For that, itneeds to look beyond its own shores. Don’t be blind-ed by the number of our consumers —that is an illu-sion, because each consumer is also someone whoneeds employment. A big country trying to develophas the same constraints as a small country: Its owndemand is rarely enough to induce the privateinvestment needed. Just like anywhere else, Indianeeds to export. The economists, and the Survey,remember that. The politicians, and the Budget,don’t seem to care.

[email protected]; Twitter: @mihirssharma

The illusion of sizeThinking India can induce enough private investment justbecause of the size of its market is a big mistake

While transiting resplendently from the passébriefcase to the bright, trendy bahi khatafor carrying her Budget papers, the new

Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman decided to givethe short shrift to what must be at the heart of theBudget. Neither the two parts of her speech nor theexplanatory memorandum contain statements of gov-ernment income and expenditure by major heads;there is only a passing reference to the deficit. Somelearned commentators have hailed this as a welcomechange, but I must concur with the observation of theformer finance minister P Chidambaram (with whomI often disagree): “Has there ever beena Budget speech that does not dis-close total revenue, total expenditure,fiscal deficit, revenue deficit?” I doso not because I am an “accountingeconomist,” but because Article 112of the Constitution expressly man-dates the government of the day tolay “before both the Houses ofParliament a statement of the esti-mated receipts and expenditure ofthe Government of India.” Theexpenditures include all thosecharged to the Consolidated Fund ofIndia, both constitutionally requiredand others.

The Budget document has these figures, but onehas to trawl through it to find them. That gives rise tothe suspicion that this is a deliberate exercise, becauseonly the patient few would bother to do so and talkabout the devil in these details. The rest will be contentwith ooh and aah and call the Budget a vision thing,not an accounting exercise. This has already happened,but we must ask whether it bodes well for a function-ing, accountable democratic system of governance.More on this later, but first some salient critiques ofwhat is presented as the Budget.

The Budget and the Economic Survey that precedesit are logically and correctly supposed to be conjoinedtwins. The latter is expected to lay out strategies in awhat-if manner and the former is an action plan basedon it. In the present instance, that connection is blurredand several mismatches are visible. The Survey takes2024-25 as the target year for the $5 trillion economy,while Ms Sitharaman restricts herself to saying “it iswell within our capacity to reach $5 trillion in the nextfew years” (para 6). That is a statement of a possibility,not a target. Her projections are based on a real growthrate of 8 per cent, while the Survey uses 7 per cent.

That single percentage point couldmake a world of difference to theprojected figures of revenues anddeficits, but then discrepancies couldalways be rationalised ex post! TheSurvey mentions private investmentand exports as growth engines, butthe Budget does not provide anykick-start for investments andemphasises import reductionthrough customs barriers.

The measures the Budget high-lights — the Reserve Bank of India(RBI) to control housing finance insti-tutions, guarantees for financially

sound non-banking finance compa-nies, interchangeable use of Aadhaar and PAN for taxreturns, diluting the definition of public sector enter-prises and government borrowing abroad, among oth-ers — are touted as reforms, but these administrativesteps could have been taken any time. Their impacton reviving the stalled economy would be at bestmarginal. More seriously, the Budget revises the rev-enue estimate downward by a whopping ~1.6 trillionfrom that of the Interim Budget before the electionand yet manages to project a deficit of 3.3 per cent,down from 3.4 per cent earlier. The lowering of revenue

estimate is an implicit admission of the slowdown,and needs to be explained and analysed. The Budgetjust blandly mentions it. The deficit reduction couldbe due to the higher disinvestment (most probablythrough selling government equity to the richer publicsector firms), higher RBI dividend and as has been thecustom, making certain expenses off-budget. Themore grievous consequence would be further shrink-ing of already lower investments and outlays in criticalareas such as health and education. Even in agricul-ture, the government’s acknowledged primary con-cern, the hyped increase of about ~63,000 crore (92per cent over the previous year) is due mostly to the~55,000 crore higher allocation for the PM-Kisanincome transfer, leaving only token amounts forresearch and investments. Clearly, the governmentthat talks of boosting farm incomes walks more com-fortably with welfare measures.

For years now, Budget deliberations in Parliamentand in public forums have been desultory. The Surveynow comes just a day, not a week, before the Budget.Reactions are predictable and ritualistic: Governmentspokespersons, from the prime minister down, callthe Budget a judicious mix of growth and social justice.The opposition terms it anti-people. Assembled busi-ness leaders carefully hedge their bets and give theBudget a safe score of 7 out of 10. But for the numbersin the Budget and names of finance ministers, wecould just as well watch previous years’ reruns!

What is remarkable about Budget 2019-20 is that itdoes not even make the pretence to be the financialstatement the Constitution enjoins it to be. The Modi2.0 government, flush with its famous victory at thehustings, knows that it can pass anything it wants inthe house that matters, the Lok Sabha. That is a trav-esty of accountability, tantamount to maximum gov-ernment, governance be damned.

The writer is an economist

Several authors have analysed the shift-ing templates of modern warfare, butfew have the credentials that Sean

McFate brings to his writing. He has servedas a paratrooper in the United States army’selite 82nd Airborne Division. He then wenton to become a mercenary soldier in Africa,with one of the shadowy “private contrac-tors” that rent out armed forces, no ques-tions asked. Adding academic rigour to thatbattlefield perspective, he is currently pro-fessor of strategy at the National DefenseUniversity and Georgetown University,both in Washington DC, USA. This is hissecond non-fiction book on war, after his

2017 work, The Modern Mercenary.In this book, McFate takes a cold-eyed

look at the changing face of conflict overthe last half century. He argues that warand force engagements have changed formdramatically, as the world has entered anage of “durable disorder” characterised byChina’s rise, Russia’s resurgence, America’sretreat, the advance of global terrorism, theemergence of international criminal syn-dicates, wealthy and influential multina-tional corporations with resources largerthan many countries and well-armed mer-cenary organisations that provide thewherewithal for countries, organisationsand individuals to meddle deniably inhotspots anywhere. Instead of declaredwars with tanks rolling across internationalborders, we have “shadow wars” such asRussia’s annexation of Ukraine’s Crimea.McFate recounts how, with PresidentVladimir Putin feigning innocence,Moscow occupied parts of Ukraine, suchas Donetsk, with its so-called “little greenmen” (military troops without uniform),

elite Spetsnaz Special Forces, mercenariesand proxy militias that Russian leaderspassed off as Ukrainian “self defencegroups”. Russia’s denial of any links withthis ghost occupation force made Westernpowers chary of intervening in a situationwhere even the basic facts remained con-tested. By the time Russia’s involvementbecame clear, the occupation was a faitaccompli. McFate tellingly points out that,in the 1950s and 1960s, Russia crushed anti-Moscow protests in Hungary andCzechoslovakia under their tank treads. Itcould have done the same in Ukraine, butchose a “shadow war” instead, given thateven implausible deniability was betterthan the opprobrium that would attend anold-style blitzkrieg invasion.

None of this is actually new, says McFate.The world is merely returning to the pre-Westphalian era when, in conflicts like the“30 Years War”, mercenary armies, owingshifting allegiances to whichever monarch,aristocrat or religious leader was payingthem, laid waste to much of Europe, pillaging

and raping indiscriminately. In 1648, theTreaty of Westphalia ended this carnage byrecognising the monopoly of states on armedforce, a consensus that largely held throughthe 20th century. But now force is againbeing wielded by non-state entities — suchas religious groups, local militias, mercenaryforces and corporations — even as the formsof force change and evolve.

In 10 successive chapters, the bookdescribes 10 rules that govern modern war-fare. “Rule 1: Conventional War is Dead”,postulates the demise of the Westphalianorder and World War II style conventionalwar, even as contemporary generals pre-pare, as generals have through the ages, tofight the last war. McFate points out that,of 50 armed conflicts worldwide in 2015,only one was a conventional war. Yet ortho-doxy prevails in planners’ minds. “Rule 2:Technology Will Not Save Us”, points outthat nuclear submarines, aircraft carriersand the F-35 stealth fighter (“the mostexpensive weapon in history”) are practi-cally unusable against contemporarythreats such as terrorist strikes, cyberattacks, Russia’s aggression in Crimea orChina’s creeping acquisition of the SouthChina Sea. Yet, most of America’s enormous

defence budget goes on those, with rela-tively few resources spent on usable forces,such as Special Force units, which remainunderfunded and in insufficient numbers.

One of the book’s most provocativearguments is in “Chapter 7: New Types ofWorld Powers Will Rule”. While the con-centration of wealth in the hands of the topone per cent is well known, McFate arguesthat hyper-wealthy corporations likeWalmart (which he wrongly says has a larg-er economy than India) now have theoption of hiring mercenary forces to protecttheir interests. Why would companies likeExxonMobil and Shell remain tethered tocorrupt governments such as Nigeria’s,when they can better protect their intereststhrough hiring mercenary groups?Similarly, organised crime syndicates, andeven terrorist groups, can today boost theirlethality by hiring mercenaries for strong-arm operations. An Uzbekistan-based mer-cenary group, Malhama Tactical, alreadyspecialises in providing armed fighters toIslamist jihadi groups. Fascinatingly,McFate returns to history to demonstratethat none of this is new. In the 17th and18th centuries, the British East IndiaCompany set up its own private army to

conquer, subjugate and plunder an entiresub-continent. One of the first Indian wordsto enter spoken English was “loot”.

McFate concludes by urging thinkers toshake off their “strategic atrophy”, since “con-ventional war thinking is killing us.” In thecurrent information age, warfare will movefurther into the shadows, he predicts, wherethe arbiter of victory will be strategic sub-version, not battlefield victory. Future warswill not begin and end, but will hibernateand smoulder, occasionally bursting intoactive fighting. This trend is already evidentfrom the number of “neither war, nor peace”situations around the world. McFate hasclearly written for a western readership, butthe Indian reader can hardly miss how muchof this applies directly to our own securitychallenges. This book should find a placeon the bookshelves of all our strategists.

Devaluing Budgets

Fighting in the shadows

BOOK REVIEWAJAI SHUKLA

THE NEW RULES OF WAR: Victory in the Age ofDurable DisorderSean McFate HarperCollins, 2019

318 pages; ~1,699 (on Amazon)

India needs a predictable, stable, and moderate rate of taxation

Taxing the super-rich

ILLUSTRATION: BINAY SINHA

ET CETERASHREEKANT SAMBRANI

POLICY RULESMIHIR S SHARMA

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DELHI THE HINDU

TUESDAY, JULY 9, 201910EEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE

CMYK

A ND-NDE

EDITORIAL

Mahesh Sachdev

The 12th ExtraOrdinary Summit of the African Union (AU)which concluded on July 8 at

Niamey, the capital of the NigerRepublic, saw 54 of 55 of its member states signing the African Continental Free Trade Agreement(AfCFTA) for goods and services.Of these countries, 27 have alreadyratifi��ed it. Actual crossborder freetrade could start by July 2020 withan elimination of custom duties on90% of the tariff��lines. If taken toits logical conclusion, this audacious project would eventuallycreate an African Common Marketof 1.2 billion people and a GDP ofover $3.4 billion — the metrics arecomparable to India’s. The AfCFTA would be world’s largest FTA,and in a world dependent on African markets and commodities, itwould have global impact.

Hurdles and optimismHowever, there are three main reasons to be sceptical about the viability of the AfCFTA. First, the African Union (founded as theOrganisation of African Unity in1963) has been largely ineff��ectivein dealing with the continent’s myriad problems such as decolonisation, underdevelopment, Islamicterrorism and the Arab Spring.The AU’s grand plans, including

the Muammar Qadhafi��fundedAfrica Unity project, have beenspectacular fl��ops. It is, therefore,natural to take the AfCFTA, theAU’s most ambitious project so far,with a ladleful of salt. Second, serious political, organisational andlogistical challenges to the AfCFTAnotwithstanding, the national economies in Africa are generallyweak with a low manufacturingbase. They also lack competitiveness and mutual complementarity. Only a sixth of Africa’s currenttotal trade is within the continent.Third, the AfCFTA seems to becountercyclical to the ongoing global protectionist trends as seen inthe U.S.China trade confl��ict, Brexit and the stalemates at the WorldTrade Organisation and the UnitedNations Conference on Trade andDevelopment. World trade is likelyto grow only by 2.6% in 2019, aquarter of last year’s fi��gure. Commodity prices are stagnant andglobalisation is often being reversed. With Africa accounting foronly 3% of global trade, can theAfCFTA defy the contrarian globaltendencies?

Still, there are reasons to becautiously optimistic. Given thestrong global headwinds includinga cooling Chinese ardour for Africa, greater collective selfreliancethrough African economic integration makes eminent sense. Further, the AfCFTA can build upon theexperience of the continent’s fi��veregional economic blocks. Whilethe AU Commission is not famousfor effi��cient planning, it has prepared an extensive road map towards the AfCFTA with prelimin

ary work on steps such asincremental tariff�� reduction, elimination of nontariff�� barriers, supply chains and dispute settlement.In December 2018, it organisedthe fi��rst IntraAfrican Trade Fair inCairo with 1,086 exhibitors signing$32 billion in business deals. Anew breed of African transnational corporations such as Dangote,MTN, Ecobank and Jumia havecontinental ambitions. Indeed, thelogistical and fi��nancial networksacross the continent are poor andcustoms formalities are foreboding, but these can be eventuallyovercome with stronger politicalwill. Moreover, vigorous “informal” trade across porous nationalborders is already a fact of Africanlife.

Thus, by adopting the AfCFTA,African leaders are only followingthe economic logic. Looking intothe future, a recent UN projectionshowed that nearly half theworld’s population growth between now and 2050 would comefrom subSaharan Africa, the population of which would double tonearly two billion. This surge in

consumer base would make theproposed AfCFTA even moreimportant.

From the Indian angleAfrica is already an important economic partner for India with totalannual merchandise trade estimated at $70 billion or nearly atenth of our global trade. India isAfrica’s third largest trading partner. While India’s global exportshave been largely stagnant, thoseto Africa have surged. For instance, exports to Nigeria in 201819 grew by over 33% over the previous year. Africa still has unfulfi��lled demand for Indiancommodities, especially foodstuff��,fi��nished products (automobiles,pharmaceuticals, consumergoods) and services such as IT/ITEnabled Service, health care andeducation, skilling, expertise inmanagement and banking, fi��nancial services and insurance.

India needs to anticipate theAfCFTA’s likely impact on its interests and try to infl��uence and leverage it to enhance IndiaAfricaneconomic ties. In principle, African economies becoming moreformalised and transparent wouldbe in India’s interest. While localmanufactured items and servicesmay ultimately compete with Indian exports, Indian fi��rms can coproduce them in Africa. If handledin a proactive manner, the AfCFTAis likely to open new opportunitiesfor Indian stakeholders in fastmoving consumer goods manufacturing, connectivity projects andthe creation of a fi��nancial backbone. India donated $15 million to

Niger to fund the Niamey AU Summit. As the next step, New Delhican help the AU Commission prepare the requisite architecture,such as common external tariff��s,competition policy, intellectualproperty rights, and natural persons’ movement. It can also identify various African transnationalcorporations which are destinedto play a greater role in a futurecontinental common market andengage with them strategically.The crosslinkages of a three million strong Indian diaspora spreadacross Africa can also be very valuable.

Finally, once the AfCFTA is accepted as benefi��cial game changer,the African elite could perhapscontemplate crossing anotherRubicon: an IndiaAfrican FTA.

Before Africa was “discovered”by the West, it had a thriving overland trade. Large camel caravansferried commodities such as ivory,gold, mineral salt, precious stonesand slaves across prosperous trading centres such as Timbuktu,Ghana, Kano, Burnu, Agadez, Edo,Zinder, Ghat, Addis Ababa, Dar esSalaam and Cairo. Subsequent colonialism and mercantilism destroyed internal trade routes, replacing them with an ecosystem inwhich Africans had better linkswith their foreign “mentors” thanamong themselves. By the AfCFTA, the Africans are only trying tocorrect this historic distortion.

Mahesh Sachdev was the Indian High

Commissioner to Nigeria and the

Ambassador to Algeria. He is the author

of ‘Nigeria: A Business Manual’

A shot at economic logic India needs to anticipate the promising impact of the African Continental Free Trade Area

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more letters online:

www.hindu.com/opinion/letters/

The description “backward”to defi��ne communities is yetanother colonial relic which

we, as a collective, embrace withsuch enthusiasm, that we almostforget what it is supposed to mean.Nowhere is this more apparentthan in the arguments in favour ofreservations by landowning castesthat are politically and economically dominant. The demand forbeing classifi��ed as “backward” byMarathas has been ongoing sincethe 1990s. With the announcement of the inclusion of Marathasinto the Socially and EducationallyBackward Communities (SEBC),the Maharashtra government has,once again, yielded to the demands of this powerful castegroup. This would be the third attempt in the last fi��ve years to grantthis quota, which has been repeatedly struck down by the courts.

Turning to the stateThe ferocity with which dominantcastes, mostly rich, landowning,politically infl��uential communities(Marathas in Maharashtra, Patidars in Gujarat, Jats in Haryana,Kapus in Andhra Pradesh), haveturned towards the state and thepublic sector, demanding quotasin jobs and higher education, indicates that the economic growth inthe last two decades, such as itwas, did not manage to swing thefortunes of a large proportion ofthese communities upwardenough. Their demand for beingincluded in the quota bandwagoncan be seen as an expression oftheir desire for good jobs and stable sources of livelihood for theiryouth, as their traditional sources

of livelihoods become more fragiledue to a widespread and multifaceted agrarian crisis.

Yet, quotas are not magic wandsthat create jobs. And everyonewould like a good job or a decentstable source of livelihood. Giventhat public sector jobs represent ashrinking and much coveted pie,what should the yardstick be to determine the validity of the demandfor quotas?

Insights from dataWhat does the evidence tell us?

Rajesh Ramachandran and Ilooked at data from the India Human Development Survey (IHDS),and compared Jats in Haryana, Patels in Gujarat and Marathas inMaharashtra. We compared theseto Brahmins, nonBrahmin forward castes, existing Other Backward Classes (OBC) and ScheduledCastesScheduled Tribes, in theirrespective States.

The results are very stark. Marathas, similar to Jats and Patels,are more likely to own or cultivateland than all other social groups intheir respective States. Marathashave a lower per capita consumption expenditure than Maharashtra Brahmins, but are at the samelevel as other forward castes andOBCs, and signifi��cantly higherthan SCSTs. Marathas, on an average, are as poor as Brahmins andother forward castes, but less poorthan OBCs and SCSTs. Marathahouseholds have greater access toelectricity compared to SCSTs.Marathas are 6 and 14 percentagepoints more likely than OBCs andSCSTs, respectively, to have access to a fl��ush toilet in Maharashtra. The average years of education for Marathas is 6.58, which islower than Brahmins by 2.18 years,but is similar to other forwardcastes and OBCs, and 1.22 yearsmore than the SCSTs. The Marathas are 13 percentage points lesslikely to have completed 12 years

or more of education as comparedto the Brahmins, but are very similar to the forward castes, and do 2and 6 percentage points betterthan the OBCs and SCST, respectively. Summing up, in most of thecrucial socioeconomic indicators,the Marathas are second only toBrahmins in the State, and are signifi��cantly better off�� than all othersocial groups.

The main bone of contentionand the main motivation for quotas is access to government jobs.The surprising fact is that even before being included in the quota,the access of Marathas to government jobs is already similar to thatof Brahmins, and higher than thatfor other forward castes andOBCs, and not diff��erent from thatfor SCSTs.

We examined both rounds ofthe IHDS data to see whether theposition of these dominant communities deteriorated relative tothe other groups. The short answer is no.

In terms of average per capitaexpenditure, their position has improved over time. In terms ofprobability of being poor, there isno worsening. There is, however,some evidence of a decline in theprobability of owning or cultivating land, which could be the reason for the heightened anxiety.

Factors underlying anxietiesThe Marathas are a predominantlyagricultural community which be

nefi��ted from the Green and WhiteRevolutions. The structural transformation of the Indian economy,especially the declining importance of agriculture, and growth ofcorporatised agriculture and water shortages aff��ecting productivity, have meant that these groupsfeel increasingly vulnerable.

Yet, data show that the Marathas have lower levels of casualisation of the labour force in both theagricultural and nonagriculturalsectors, as compared to the OBCsand SCSTs.

Overall, there is discontentamong powerful farming communities due to the perceptionthat real economic power lies inthe hands of the big corporations,and the state, overtly or covertly,acts in their interest. These communities feel their power slippingaway or eroding, in addition tofeeling illprepared to shift towards urban, formal sector livelihood opportunities.

Individuals or communitieswho feel strongly that the odds ofeconomic success are stackedagainst them are more likely to feeldeprived. Other estimates fromIHDS panel data show that “forward castes were about 30 percent more likely to feel that theywere worse off�� in 201112 than in200405”. Thus, perceptions ofbeing worseoff�� are real: our analysis suggests that these perceptionsare exactly that — feelings — notsupported by evidence on theground.

Having said this, economicchanges that give rise to widespread anxieties, defi��nitely need tobe understood and genuine grievances, including those that mightcome from forward castes dealingwith agrarian transformations,need to be addressed.

However, is reservation the realanswer? Given increasing privatisation, the base, i.e. total jobs thatare eligible for reservations, is al

ready shrinking. Our other research shows how existing OBCsand SCSTs are further lagging behind upper castes on a range ofmaterial indicators. In this context, extending quotas to relativelyricher and powerful groups wouldamount to diluting the alreadysmall and shrinking entitlementfor communities that are truly disadvantaged and discriminatedagainst.

A dilutionRecently, the Marathas have hadtwo main demands: one, beingmade quota benefi��ciaries, andtwo, the repeal of the ScheduledCastes and the Scheduled Tribes(Prevention of Atrocities) Act. TheState government has, once again,given in to the fi��rst. Should it consider the second, ours would beno country for the most marginalised.

Quite apart from turning theterm “backward” on its head, thewriting on the wall is clear. Despitethe rhetoric that accompanied the10% quota, the plan is not to moveto a castefree system. It is to dilutethe entitlement of castes that areobjectively “backward”, stigmatised and discriminated against.

In the context of the lynching ofDalits for pursuing their traditional occupations, snatching awaytheir livelihoods in the name ofcow protection, violence targetedat intercaste marriages, and otherviolence related to temple entry orfor not following the illegal socialnorms dictated by untouchability,this move would legally reinforcethe obnoxious hierarchies of thecaste system. A forwardlooking,progressive Indian polity shouldbe discussing instruments to weaken the deadly tentacles of caste,not embolden and reinforce existing hierarchies.

Ashwini Deshpande is Professor of

Economics, Ashoka University

Reinforcing caste hierarchiesThe Maratha quota is a case in point of what a progressive Indian polity should not be doing

Ashwini Deshpande

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Coalition power-playThe resignation of 13lawmakers in Karnataka hasexposed the innatevulnerability of fracturedverdicts (Page 1, “CM toseek postponement ofsession,” July 8).Governance in the State hasgone for a toss as a result ofconstant politicalmanoeuvring. It would be sheer naivetehere to believe that theruling party at Centre hashad no role to play.However, this does notabsolve the opportunisticcoalition in the State of itsresponsibility either. Bothgroups have been playingpower games, unmindful ofethics or people’s interests.D.V.G. Sankararao,

Vizianagaram, Andhra Pradesh

Vacuum at the topThe major reasons for theCongress’s debacle wereboth its inability to remaina political force to reckonwith and the BJP’s successin convincing the Indianvoter that they needed aparty with a Hinduorientation at the helm(Editorial page, “The searchfor Chakrayya”, July 8).Rahul Gandhi failed toimpress as a leader.References to the past, asdone in the article, cannotjustify the perpetuation ofrule by the NehruGandhifamily for this long. TheCongress has so far donedisservice to the nation byblocking the emergence ofmore effi��cient leaders.V. Lakshmanan,

Tirupur, Tamil Nadu

■ Some of us oldtimers weredelighted to see a Gandhiremembering and recallingK. Kamaraj, arguably themost selfeff��acing,disciplined and dedicatedCongress president. Weremember Kamaraj for thehistoric Avadi session whenthe party adopted as its aimthe establishment of asocialistic pattern of society.Jawaharlal Nehru trusted andadmired Kamaraj as partypresident. But Indira Gandhididn’t. It didn’t take muchtime for her to make theparty “her fi��eld of action”.This dynastic hold continues.Rahul Gandhi’s resignation isnot acceptable to the‘hangerson’ in the party.And though there are manysuch ‘hangerson’ inCongress, there are also

youngsters who arecommitted, sincere anddedicated to the cause of theparty. Mr. Gandhi has beenwise in resigning aspresident. But he shouldensure the Congress does notget a dummy leader asreplacement.C.V. Venugopalan,

Palakkad, Kerala

Trading in EI leatherThe Budget announcementof abolition of export dutyon East India (EI) leathercomes as a welcomecorrective measure.Produced predominantly inTamil Nadu for centuries, EIleather was exported formore than hundred years toEuropean countries.Tanneries used naturalmaterials like avaram,

‘From the Archives’, July 8)reminded me of the watercrisis in 1969. A severedrought prevailed andthousands of animals died.The present crisis in TamilNadu is not much diff��erentand this is in no smallmeasure due to the overexploitation of naturalresources. Former U.S.Congressman WilliamBourke Cockran once said:“The earth is a generousmother; she will provide inplentiful abundance food forall her children if they willbut cultivate her soil injustice and in peace.” Wehave to care for nature if weexpect it to be kind to us.Gopal Marimuthu,

Chennai

Konnan barks and wattleextract and emitted lessharmful effl��uents ascompared to chrometanneries. However, vestedinterests in the leatherindustry infl��uenced thegovernment and trade in EIleather was restricted fi��rstthrough quota and thenusing export duty. Manytanneries in places likeTiruchi Dindigul and Vellorewere forced to shut down.The removal of export dutycan spur employmentopportunities and bringdevelopment to Tamil Nadu’sbackward regions.V.N. Mohamed Hussain,

Chennai

Past continuousThe article, “Subsoil waterfor Madras” (OpEd page,

LETTERS TO THE EDITOR Letters emailed to [email protected] must carry the full postal address and the full name or the name with initials.

The conviction of prominent proLTTE politician

Vaiko on the charge of sedition, based on a typi

cally impassioned speech he had made in Chen

nai a decade ago, is a worrying development. Even

though Section 124A, the IPC section that makes sedi

tion an off��ence, attracts either a threeyear term or im

prisonment for life, the trial court sentenced him to a

somewhat lenient oneyear jail term. Yet, it is a matter

of concern that political speeches are criminalised to

the point of being deemed an off��ence against the state.

Further, the timing of a political leader being found

guilty of sedition is quite inopportune. In recent years,

there has been an alarming rise in sedition charges be

ing used to quell political dissent. This conviction will

needlessly send out a message that such provisions are

necessary to protect the government against being

brought into hatred and contempt. Also, it comes at a

time when demands to scrap the section is gaining mo

mentum. There is greater recognition now than in the

past that Section 124A is neither relevant nor needed to

day. The Law Commission released a consultation pap

er highlighting arguments for its reconsideration. There

is a body of opinion that a modern democracy does not

need a free speech restriction based on political con

cepts such as disloyalty and disaff��ection towards the

state. Britain, which introduced the off��ence of sedition

in India in 1870 to check the use of speech and writing

to criticise its colonial administration, has abolished it.

It is true that Mr. Vaiko had unleashed a diatribe

against the Union government by accusing it of betray

ing the Sri Lankan Tamil cause, and holding it responsi

ble for the death of Tamil civilians in large numbers.

However, whether his harshly worded indictment

amounts to incitement of violence against the govern

ment is debatable. The speech was made at a function

to mark the release of the Tamil version of a book that

accused the Congressled regime of complicity in Sri

Lanka’s military campaign. The court ruled that his al

legations would sow the seeds of disaff��ection and

hatred towards the government. Here is where the real

mischief of Section 124A lies. Its defi��nition of sedition as

anything that excites disaff��ection against the govern

ment, or brings it under hatred and contempt, is too

wide and can take in its fold not only incitement to tak

ing up arms but also harmless, even if strident, criti

cism. In 1962, the Supreme Court limited its scope to

acts that show actual intent or a tendency to create dis

order or foment violence. Regrettably, the court has

held that anyone who heard Mr. Vaiko’s speech would

develop hatred towards the government; that “mere ad

vocacy” is the essence of the crime, and there need not

be actual violence as a consequence. Higher courts will

have the fi��nal say on whether he was guilty, but the case

for abrogating Section 124A just became stronger.

A regrettable convictionMr. Vaiko being found guilty of sedition

strengthens the case to scrap Section 124A

The political crisis in Karnataka that has been

brewing for months has boiled over, threatening

the CongressJanata Dal(S) coalition government.

With 13 of its MLAs resigning from the Assembly in

phases, and one independent withdrawing his support,

the coalition’s original strength of 118 in the 224seat

House appears to have come down to 104. If all the re

signations are found valid and accepted by the Speaker,

the halfway mark will drop from 113 to 106. The BJP has

105 MLAs and the support of independent MLA Nagesh,

who has resigned as a Minister. All the Congress and JD

(S) Ministers have resigned to allow the leadership the

space to lure back the dissidents. With allegations of

bribery, and abduction and confi��nement of lawmakers,

what is unfolding is a mockery of democracy and a

shameful disregard for the 2018 verdict. Though there

are contradictions in the coalition and both parties had

fought last year’s election separately, postpoll coali

tions are a legitimate and honourable route to the for

mation of a government in a hung Assembly. The legis

lators driven by nothing more than their greed are not

setting a good example. Even if the Congress and the JD

(S) manage to quell the rebellion and save the govern

ment, the truce will be dubious and tainted.

The BJP’s hand in the crisis is not invisible. In fact, its

imprimatur is unmistakable in the turmoil. The party,

which emerged as the single largest in the election but

short of a majority, has not been able to accept the ver

dict and play the role of a responsible Opposition. The

BJP’s maximalist approach of seizing power by all

means and in all places may have served it well in terms

of expanding its footprint. But this approach does not

conform to its claimed adherence to democracy. In Aru

nachal Pradesh and Goa, the BJP had acted on its philo

sophy that the pursuit of power justifi��es all means. In

Karnataka, the party has used the strategy of engineer

ing resignations of MLAs to force byelections several

times over the last decade. Given this pattern, and con

sidering the BJP State unit’s relentless attempts to desta

bilise the coalition from the word go, Defence Minister

Rajnath Singh’s protestations in Parliament on Monday

that the BJP had nothing to do with the current crisis in

Karnataka carries little credibility. The party has mean

while said that it would seek to form an alternative go

vernment, should the coalition crumble. The BJP must

resist that temptation and instead wait for the results of

the byelections caused by the resignations. If the coali

tion collapses under its own weight, any alternative ar

rangement that is short of an absolute majority of the

total strength of the House will be shaky and lacking in

political legitimacy. That situation is best avoided.

The visible hand BJP must not stake claim to form a Ministry

in Karnataka without an absolute majority

THE HINDU DELHI

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At a meeting of the Bombay Municipal Corporation on Monday [ July 7], Mr. CowasjeeJehangir presiding, discussion was resumedon the proposition moved by Dr. A.G. Veigasthat the President be requested to addressthe Government regarding the desirabilityof appointing a committee to investigate andreport early the housing question in all itsbearings and suggest practical measures forincreasing the housing accommodation forthe poor and the middle class population ofthe city. The subject was discussed at greatlength. The Medical members of the Corporation touched upon the medical aspect ofthe question and urged that on the propersolution of the housing question dependedthe health of the city. The city’s slums hadbecome the breeding places for a number ofdiseases and it was the duty of the Government, the Municipality and public bodies totake up the question in right earnest. ThePresident pointed out that the question ofhousing was at present occupying the serious attention of the Government who wereconsidering the scheme whereby the Government, the various local bodies and theemployers of labour could solve it.

A HUNDRED YEARS AGO JULY 9, 1919.

Housing in Bombay.

A persistent concern exists about democracy’s failure to fulfi��l our expectations. While our votes are forceful‘paper stones’, eff��ective in getting ridof governments we dislike, they arepowerless to give us eff��ective, effi��cient, good governments. Why do wehave to put up with corrupt rulerswith criminal records — qualities thatobstruct good governance? Why tolerate those who strive to do moregood for themselves than for the people, who have neither vision norwisdom? Why have mediocre politicians who shun contact with peoplewith ability and talent?

Better, wiser governmentsSome cynics may respond to this crisis of democracy by arguing the following: to achieve our national goals,we must assemble the best team togovern. Such a team cannot be elected by popular mandate but insteadby those who have the intellectualwherewithal to select those fi��t for it.To such people, democracy — whichis committed to the principle of oneperson, one vote, and which extendsfranchise to all regardless of ability —can never produce the best team.

They might draw an analogy fromcricket where we play to compete atthe highest level and win — something not possible if the best cricketersare not selected. But this is notachieved by popular vote. Instead,we rely on experts — a selection committee consisting of experiencedcricketers. If popular mandate can’tgive us the best team that realises ournational goal in cricket, why expect adiff��erent result in politics? Why notselect our government by a similarprocedure involving experts?

So, to reiterate the conundrum:democratically elected governmentsin our times are neither effi��cient norwise. They show a propensity to failat achieving their national goal — ahigh quality of life for all people.Then why not abandon democracy?Or at least introduce an eligibility criterion, restricting the vote to thosewith formal education? Won’t educa

tion help in identifying the best political representatives? A democratneed not reject this argument. Shemay respond that this need not entailabandoning universal adult franchisebut the distribution of education toall. This seems a decent solution.Sustainable democracies require ahigh rate of literacy. The more educated we are, it might be claimed, thebetter we become at choosing thebest people to run our government.

But this argument is fl��awed. Literacy and education by themselves donot create good citizens or yield mature democracies. Many are formallyilliterate but are politically astute andeven possess qualities of good citizenship. Conversely, many educatedpeople are prone to being selfobsessed, undemocratic, and evenauthoritarian. Primary, secondary oreven higher education by itself doesnot guarantee good citizenship.

The solution then is not just education per se, but universal education of a certain kind, one that is focused on improving the quality ofour democracy. Our current education system does not focus on education in democracy or what we mightcall democratic education. Nor doesit build on elements of democraticculture embedded in our traditions.

Core elementsWhat then are the core elements ofdemocratic education? For a start, itrequires the cultivation of democratic virtues. For instance, the ability toimagine and articulate a minimallycommon good. This requires that wedistinguish what is merely good forme from what is the good of all. Andsince each of us may develop ourown distinct idea of the commongood, to fi��nd an overlapping common good. Relatedly, an ability to

handle diff��erence and disagreementand to retain, despite this diff��erence,the motivation to arrive at the common good through conversation, debate, dialogue and deliberation.

The ability to imagine and conceive a common good is inconsistentwith what the Greeks famously called‘pleonexia’, the greed to grab everything for oneself, to refuse to shareanything, to not acknowledge what isdue to each person, to have no senseof reciprocity or justice. It followsthat the idea of the common goodcannot be developed without somesense of justice. Democratic education requires training in not succumbing to pleonexia. Also crucial isa spirit of compromise, of moderation, and a willingness, within acceptable value parameters, of mutualgive and take. None of this is possiblewithout other general capabilitiessuch as listening patiently to others,being empathetic to the plight of others, and having a commitment tocontinuing a conversation with people despite disagreement.

More important is the ability toparticipate in a particular historicalnarrative or, as the political theoristJeremy Webber puts it, a “commitment to a particular debate throughtime”. Members of a political community become better citizens whenthey relate to critical issues throughhistorically inherited terms of debate, a continuing narrative, a specific ongoing conversation. The refl��ection of that debate in politicaldecisionmaking is central to themembers’ feeling of engagement andparticipation. For example, there is aparticular way in which the questionof religion has been framed in India,as also issues of nation, caste andgender. Individuals become eff��ectiveand meaningful citizens only by

learning the terms set by debatesaround these specifi��c issues. Since auseful entry to them is availablethrough rich debates in the Constituent Assembly, a familiarity withthem is a crucial ingredient of democratic education in India.

It also follows that democraticeducation involves a basic understanding of our society and its history, of its multiple cultural, intellectual and religious traditions, whichset the terms of specifi��c debates. I amfrequently appalled at my own ignorance of the historical trajectory ofour complex social problems. Andsaddened to fi��nd that my highly educated friends do not know that a constitutional minority in India is notjust a numerically small group butone potentially disadvantaged by virtue of that fact; some mistakenly believe that religious minorities havereservation in jobs and in institutionsof higher education; massive illiteracy continues to exist about the atrocious nature of our caste system; many continue to think that ‘secularism’is a wholly western concept, as if ‘religion’ is not! Only a proper democratic education can remove thesemisunderstandings and fl��aws.

What then is democratic education? Conceived broadly, it is a historically specifi��c enterprise, determined by the inherited vocabulary ofspecifi��c political languages and theterms of debates in a particular community. It is designed specifi��cally toenable conversation on issues central to a particular community, tostrive for agreement where possibleand to live peacefully with disagreement where it is not. In short, it involves social and historical awareness and key democratic virtues.

Many of these understandings andvirtues can be inculcated by a goodliberal arts education. The 2019 National Education Policy recognisesthis but alas insuffi��ciently. And as faras I can tell from my skimpy reading,it has virtually nothing to say abouthow this relates to democracy. So, itappears relatively innocent of themore specifi��c requirements of democratic education. Without proper democratic education, I am afraid wewill continue to perpetuate bad democratic practices, allow unhealthyscepticism about democracy to growand eventually imperil it.

Rajeev Bhargava is Professor, CSDS, Delhi

Without it, we will continue to allow unhealthy scepticism about democracy to grow

The importance of democratic education

Rajeev Bhargava

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Allegations of widespread fraud concerninggeneric drugs manufactured overseas, especially in India, were recently highlighted inthe U.S. Much focus was on the contamination found in one drug made by Ranbaxy. Ido not wish to support Ranbaxy’s deplorablebehaviour. Nor do I wish to belittle the importance of the ongoing eff��orts to fi��x India’sdrug regulatory framework. The point hereis that this focus has been deployed to undermine foreign generics.

For instance, the Ranbaxy saga unfolded14 years ago. Since then, several pharmaceutical companies, both foreign and local,generic and innovative, have been implicated in similar or worse behaviour. Notable examples include those of Martin Shkreli’s Turing Pharmaceuticals, which hiked the priceof a drug to 5,000%, and Purdue Pharmaceuticals, a company currently implicatedfor causing the opioid crisis. The strategy ofraising fears of ‘contaminated’ foreign generics has successfully prejudiced Americansagainst valid generic drugs, even thoughthey have remained a viable option.

This frenzy about contamination of drugsis due partly to the expansion of the Food Safety Modernization Act (FSMA) to includeglobal inspections. One objective in thus empowering the Food and Drug Administration(FDA) was to work with regulators of foreigncountries and create a universal CurrentGood Manufacturing Practice (CGMP) system for drugs.

FDA’s regulatory overreachInstead, the FDA has positioned itself as a‘global regulator’. For example, in a recentstatement, it mentioned that it inspects allbrandname and generic manufacturing facilities around the world based on information from whistleblowers or out of concernfor drug safety. Arguably, this amounts toregulatory overreach as there is no international instrument standardising AmericanCGMP practices as the global standard.

Further, under the FSMA, if a foreign facility refuses inspection, the FDA’s power is limited to refusing the food/drug entry intothe U.S. America’s interest in good manufacturing practices to protect its citizens is commendable. Nevertheless, given Washington’scurrent zeal to propel exports, if India or

China pass legislation to inspect U.S. food ordrug manufacturing facilities, U.S. companies may not readily welcome the move.

A prejudiced dialogueIn 2018, out of the 4,676 human pharmaceutical sites inspections that the FDA conductedworldwide, 61% were of foreignbased facilities. Similarly, out of 1,365 human drugCGMP surveillance inspections conducted,55% were conducted at facilities outside theU.S. The FDA’s publicising of its ‘global vigilante experience’ paints a picture of foreignmanufactured drugs as ‘defective’ or ‘contaminated’ while not fully acknowledgingsome of the regulatory failures within America. To provide a perspective, the ‘drug recalllist’, a list of drugs deemed defective in spiteof having cleared FDA regulatory approvalsfor the last 14 years, runs into over 149 pages.I cite this to merely highlight that a prejudiced dialogue that does not capture all perspectives can create imprecise impressions.

As such, when the FDA inspects production facilities, there are both smaller and bigger issues that will come up. There is noscale to determine whether the problemsportrayed in the fi��nal report are simple ones,such as one tap not working, or more impactful ones, such as use of contaminatedwater. The absence of a proper scale provides a loophole, enabling the regulator tocherrypick and treat all instances of noncompliance as egregious violations.

In addition, in the U.S., there is no properlegal defi��nition of the oftused term ‘contaminated drugs’. Section 351 of Title 21 of theU.S. Code defi��nes ‘adulterated drugs’ andwhen a drug is deemed ‘adulterated’ for being contaminated, the regulator needs tospecify whether the adulteration relates tothe manner of preparation, the packagingstandards or the manufacturing practices.

For India, the discussion in the U.S. is notable not only because it houses generic manufacturing facilities but also because Indiais a nation on the verge of breaking into theinnovation market. Thus, it is time India tooka more robust role to ensure public availability of facts on both the importance of generics and their limitations. The country needsto create strong voices and partnerships thatcan highlight the benefi��ts and pitfalls alike tocreate a robust space for innovation that cancoexist with access to medication. After all,innovation and policy failings need not be anexcuse to deny access to lifesaving medication to productive workforces.

Srividhya Ragavan serves as a Professor of Law at

Texas A&M University School of Law

A myopic view of foreign-made generic drugsThe U.S. is using the Ranbaxy experience to create a bogey

Srividhya Ragavan

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DATA POINT

Trade turmoil has been putting atrisk the U.S.’s strategic partnershipwith India. In the last two months,the U.S. has withdrawn from Indiapreferential tariff�� benefi��ts under itsGeneralized System of Preferences(GSP) programme, and India has imposed retaliatory tariff��s in responseto tariff��s that the U.S. applied lastyear on steel andaluminium.

Confl��ict and disputesare not new to the U.S.India relationship. Theyhave ranged from trade injute and almonds in theperiod of the GeneralAgreement on Tariff��s andTrade to poultry and solar panels under the World Trade Organization(WTO). But this moment is diff��erentbecause the confl��ict may run deeperwith more serious implications. If thetwo fail to relieve the building tension, a titfortat trade war mimickingthat between the U.S. and China mayfollow. The U.S. is India’s single mostimportant export market; India is ahuge and growing market for U.S. investment and exports. An escalatingseries of retaliation and counterretaliation could undermine eff��orts to advance what might be the most consequential bilateral relationship in the21st century.

Resolving diff��erences On the positive side, a serious eff��ortby both to solve some trade problemscould even lead to a new and excitingset of opportunities. But this will require moving from eff��ective management of current tensions to thinkingbig for the future. Assuming the twosides can come together to resolveoutstanding issues such as the GSP,U.S. tariff��s on steel and aluminiumand India’s retaliatory tariff��s, and differences on ecommerce, they canset the stage for building a trade relationship that better complements thestrategic one.

A starting point would be to empower the Offi��ce of the U.S. Trade Representative and the Ministry ofCommerce and Industry to developsome problemsolving cooperativeeff��orts under the existing Trade Policy Forum on issues such as digital

trade, regulatory coherence, and intellectual property rights, matchingtheir earlier successes on the WTOTrade Facilitation Agreement.

This future work would be betteradvanced if India created a new career trade staff�� that reports directlyto the Prime Minister’s Offi��ce. TheU.S. administration has experiencedtrade staff��, even at senior levels, whobuild negotiating skills over their ca

reers and relationships ofrapport and trust with theirforeign counterparts. Indiacould better serve its tradeinterests with the same kindof approach. This is a scenario that could evolve into anew relationship of common purpose on trade.

Trade disputes will continue to cropup, as they do even in the healthiestof relationships, but these would bebest pursued through the WTO.

Thinking bigHowever, even this scenario is a limited one; the U.S.India strategic partnership deserves higher aspirationson trade. The goal should be a morecomprehensive platform for expanding trade and investment through theprogressive elimination of trade andinvestment barriers, from protectionist regulatory measures to tariff��sand restrictions on trade in services.This might even lead some day to thenegotiation of a free trade agreement, which is the ultimate exampleof economic integration in a traderelationship.

Neither country has been particularly successful at negotiating freetrade agreements compared to others around the world — the EU justconcluded one with Vietnam. Eachhas a strong but messy democracywith many voices against free tradeagreements. Each is a tough negotiator with a passionate commitment toits national interests. But both candream big together and trade shouldbe central to those dreams.

Mark Linscott is a Senior Fellow with the

South Asia Program at the Atlantic Council; a

Senior Adviser with The Asia Group, a

strategic advisory fi��rm in Washington, DC;

and a former Assistant U.S. Trade

Representative for South and Central Asian

Aff��airs

Towards a free trade agreementIndia and the U.S. should aim to progressivelyeliminate trade and investment barriers

Mark Linscott

The initial pullout of 25,000 Americantroops from Viet Nam began today [ July 8]with the departure of a battalion of 814 infantrymen. Garlanded with plastic fl��owersthrown round their necks by pretty Viet Namese girls, most of the young troops laughedand smiled as they boarded nine giant transport jets. The men had stood to attention inblazing sun at Saigon’s Tan Son Mhut airportfor three hours. Girls handed them parcelsof gifts – dolls, tapes of Viet Namese musicand fl��ags. South Viet Nam President NugyenVan Thieu fl��ew in by helicopter minutes before the end of the ceremonial farewell parade and told the soldiers: “Your departurebears testimony to the success of the role ofthe U.S. force in Viet Nam.” The departure ofthe battalion, the third of the 60th InfantryRegiment, Ninth Infantry Division, for Tacoma, Washington, marked a turning point inthe Viet Nam war, which has cost 36,866Americans dead. Today’s vanguard left exactly a month after President Nixon and President Thieu announced on Midway Islandthat 25,000 Americans would be sent homeby the end of August. The pullout reverses aprocess that began almost exactly 19 yearsago.

FIFTY YEARS AGO JULY 9, 1969

U.S. troops in Viet Nam begin pull out

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