glyn, a., harrison, j., & armstrong, p. (1991). capitalism since 1945. oxford basil blackwell..pdf

8/10/2019 Glyn, A., Harrison, J., & Armstrong, P. (1991). Capitalism since 1945. Oxford Basil Blackwell..pdf

1/13

i i i$\

l .r '*

i

.

i

t I

ClEl\CIAS

COi'JOiti lCAS

Capi ta l ismince1945

Phil ip rmstrong

AndrewGlyn

JohnHarrison


2/13

1 A

I I I U \ I I U d L

Slowdown

-.,

z1r


3/13

234

Capingwthrhe

Slowdaw

Table

14.1

The

growlh sLowdow

1960-891avraqe

nnualoercenlage

rowlh ales

or

1960-73

1973-89

1973-75

1975

79

1979-82

1982

9

US A

oEc0

9 6

2 6

2 2

3 9

2 1

. ' 0 8

0 l

i o

5 l

3 9

0 l

0 9

3 1

0 a

2 1

4 3

3 6

sour.o

OECD

H5ro,clS;rrr's

rd

E'o^'|'

artloor

;;:il:"T:t

'i,':;:,';i,i,'"f

il'i*if

+;il

l.f*;",

,'i""**

;i

.l:l:':;li:;''j:l"tli''l.i,l

l

':::

l

l,*

*'p''

1e*"

"'

,,1::i;*

*::n"i,[i'[':i

';,''il."$:il:;l"::i]:i

l:f:'fiili;

ol,"*",

s]",,,!c,"d

T.'lh

'lr.

lllf

:il;

l"",.,T;:il;',.i;_,1

l:

li;:iili.'::'i;l ;,T"'';],'ii:: .'; :' ;:" r,hc', r;n, hcers

ru,

:i,:

ill

tnl;ll'^'l';

"1

;:lr

i'ffi

f

il"

ilil::

:,ir;i,i'.:*lj::l

illi,::

lil'

'1

;i'l:il::i,:''"'*

*'

11,

srnrvth

"'

"r^'"a

,1,i

rrrT

"I;,jur;:L^"r'l{if,li':li.ill;"':"i:i}1i!ti:liii',ll

llo:iii",."''J,,:",,,":,,.j,:i::ll;1.,,:::H*,,::i,"]:lT:,h:i

ti"l,l.i'

|'1.,1

"'il"l'

;l'l"ii.l

.

,,"i,.,.

",.

".^"

rv

. on r r i hu rcJ

, , h t

, *dnwn rh l c

+ )

C o r s L - ' , s

l o

b T e

- . * - * t t "

'

-H#i#

"#u:i:"J::l,

:lj:Tlxil'r,

t{:i;li:ii:{:

.:i ,1i* ;:r*1:':ltl'+ll';l"l:'I:;:i

l':in'

;1

inll[i;:-n*t::T,L?l'iJ]i,,lll'ili'liTHfi i ;,Hl]

Tabl

14.2Conrrb ! lons

ACC eand

196089

t960

73

r973-89

1973-75

1975-79

lg79 82

198239

5 5

3 5

0 9

0 1

0 0

2 1

0 0

0 3

0 9

1 2

0 6

2 7

0 7

0 5

a 2

0 l

0 6

3 6

0 8

0 2

- 4 2

0 0

'greshow

h e n r

o whch

u6 l in

perce ihses

l6OPl1or l [c

av69.

nua

Detlge

q'owtholroG oulour

cove'nm

petlture

crt6locfed ndcprl

spn9o

9os

^dservces1r

ercldrnq

isre6l

n i DP do

r.(6pond

p

means tur lorarqrowih

may d

verse s

qhrv kom su or comporeiG

Soui

OECo.

1939 Ecanac

Anaar

Juie bbe3l

dedrer'sss

in

govcrnmcrransfcr

aymcnrs.ctcrmincs

hc

groerhof disposablc

iDcc,mcs.

ouscholds'dircrction

s rhus imircd

m

l lLrctLrrt ions

n rbc

proporion f incomc

avc|.

, l lcr!vtccn

961)

nd

l97l rhc

rrc l (rr ion

of

hous' l)ol(l

crf rc

iv! ' l

in;crscrl

;onr

l .2

cr

cenr ,) l

2

fcr

ccnr,

s n! , rc

h( lm

hc

rr

is cl irt

consumption

,rot1i"t

hecillilr-br

inrlxrion

l rhc crlrrluc

rfiiiiiirgs

Abour

half

(tftftsi-i;l svings

is rbsorhc(l

h

icrcscd

nrlcs cnr

i

housinsj-lhc

siv inss rh

$obblcd rom

l97 l

l r l i l Lhcctrr lv

ighr jcs ,

l i r r

which fc l l 'crv

sha"h

in i l l rhc

maior

A(lCs crccfrJxptl n

d

( ;c rr nr '

ln

the cn

thc l l

in hc s.rings

t io

conrriburcd

rcund

cr

ccnt

per

crr

t t t hc

sro$thof coDsumption;n Francc,ta lyand hcUK th is cPrcscnlcdrc- th i

io onc-h l fo f rhc

p id r isc

n consumption

hich

us rn impor l .nr

x turc

ol '

hc

rccolcn.

I louscbuilding

lso c\pandcd

h.rp l ! r

l ( )87 an( l

98 i l

l l t

dcclining

ctwccn

1973

nd thc

mid-19tOs

Consumcrs

caclcd o hc

sagnirion

f

rhc i r e l

ncorrr 's v

ncrcsing

hc n

borrowing

rom

nancial insritutions

lushcd

Li Ihcash

nd nculv

ibcratcd

t

6 n n , , l c r c s u l r i ' n ' l

, s

t l r c d

n h

l ' r c r ' l c n J

J (

ro s ' h

n

h (

m rd

l

,n

l" ' " lq80'

,n

p1,. r n .gqid f f .

cd 'nr(

J

I

rc i r 'LLhr( t^ \ (1

r '

occurrcd

t

' \ 'u

r i r r ' . 0u1 ' rc l

ncr Inc \h" lc

r ' r r 'd

'l

c I l tnJrr '

household

lpcnditurc

hs bctr"reiatnch

axivc, conslriincd

b\ drc

Srowth

ol

-,'te< t( - rserl,

I

r\rr.\C

-

ll(\>


4/13

2l i

l l r ) / t (

1r / il r '5 rr* fuwn

. . . O r

o r e i g e r s .

Thc

fcducrion

n

purchasing

oser

Nhhn

he ACCS

mplicd

by thc

!o

risls

r

"ii

pri.* l' '",

"""

"

A*"rcc1

scapcgort

or

slov

gro$rh' Bur

such

d;rcd

cffclc

,

r : .oo" ,o

n

nr:(c

i1 ' rc sc :

(rn

bc

c\rBgcrr"d

Thc

dcrcn 'rr ion

n

rhc

, , , . .

^'

' r '"

**r ' ." 'hcd

nJu'ed

'pcndrng

o\cr in i l "c

ACC' .1" \

i r lc

i , ' ,1 ," i " . ,

' . , l r

" " ' , " r r

br

nr ecn

q?J

nJ o?5

rJ

b\

ihaur

ha l fa 'mtr '

h

;. ' ;; i;;;-8i.

J

"", ,r ' rc

r z.r 'n{, . ' hi(

f fL.

sas'"hsrrnt ' rrr"rlscr

v

; ; : ' ; : " " . ' . ' . ; " , h ' r c . i c n ' " r \ i s hc r ' ' i lr i c r . un r ' + n ' r c rs c d

rh, i

oun. .

f rom

l'( \CC'

t ' t r

cnr

h

rcL'nuc\

o

rf ' l ( ' \

! ru\rrrpco

, " " ' u i . , r l

O C , ;

L ' i J

i l c$ i ' c

( ( c

h r l r c r

1 i

{ c r l i l 82

h c

A C C '

, . ' . ' . '

, r"1"

.n."

'u l ' \ rrrrr i r l lv

ur Ihc

\cnc(i l

f iccr

hr ' had

nn

. ; . " i. " " " ' , " " '

. ' : . ' ' ,

'

h\

rh(

dc' l inc

n ncr

\norrr

rhc

i i l

r ' rdu(c"

nd

""" i . ,1" , i t

'"

n(

rr lv nJchr(d

DL'

{crc r l t r '

d

In

cur

' rcr

1rr\ rrcrrr\

n

; ; ; ; ; ' ; * ;

t " i '

thu.

srr i lc

rhr

c"r

or

imrors

inro

hc.{cc\ '

nd

ooss r l i r .c '

f

cr"rr i g,

nlD(d

I

\(N impnrrnr

olc

n th '

s l lcrni l rn

'

: . . ' f ' "

' . . ,

* l

* , . i -

'\

cr, '

r , r .

l ' r t l .

rhc!

$

crc

nor

mncn^nr

n

rhdring

(hc

patrcrn f

dcmand

lcr

rhc

pcriod

as

wholc

. . Orgovernments?

ln

rrc

tar,U,

nd c.rr ly

ai0,

i I . rc : .*d

.r" l (

5tcnding

n_

o'

s

rnJ

Lnj 'c'

i ro ' rd,

J mkcrs

or

ncrry

I

nr

cnr

pcr cd!

grns-h

l

nurput

tJnrc

a

r'

i rrcr

I

n7J

hc .rccr

mlcru\

u

g'$thDro\rd{

b)

8o\crnmcnr

p(nd'ng

s

' n h

r l f . 1 . \ r " n g

' d r rcus "cd

n c h r r ' -

7 ' cu r rcn ' c i \ i l sPcnd

gr

h c r m

. lLic , , r ion

nd

odrcr

mcil

c l l rrc

prosrimnrcs

s

8(^\

nrorc

l rv l -v ' . rnd

.,t*

."pal

n."g.".."t,

suclr

ds l)us'buil'linla

nd

rod

coslruction'

rlc

bccn

shrrDlY

u( back

rl ' . , , .

r , " j - .*

" , , ' . . i ' .

rr

I

' rc

in rhq

rr l '

' ' !un

: ' \

r"

r ' lur i

r

"r

4

pcI

-""," icl i i .

l rr?5

Si1

f

'h(rr

hc \ ' rJsr

dcricn

x

f lu ' rurruJ

rcl i l l lvin

,f'" ,nnn"Z-+ n". ." " ,,1G )lJ

'l'hc

slo$

gro\!hof oFul

nd th

crc rc

rcal

, " . - " . ' . t . t . .

r . r r "

i n r i r r . ' r n u c "

L ' n h ( l h ' ' i d f " f Lh f \ L ( r ' u n t

,1"

. , ' " . " i "1; ' . ." " '

i

rcluJ

.r

rhf

c" \r

"r

' r t r '

r ' (ncnt '

h i j (

I rrrcr

numl ' (A

. ' , J . ' , " " , ' .

" l i * ' .

r , , r

'

n ,h r '

hc l t c l

" L ( c ' h ( ' h ' r ( '

I r n ' i l r '

i \ i n g

. ' , i . u

,

' n / '

\ l " r ( ^ c r " h . u m r r l r r ( l

{ f

i

r n Jh i F r \ | i r r "

' r

r r r c '

intrcs" ,1

nr"rcs l

rym"nls

n hc

ni l i r) ' r l

cb l

-. t,

1'n, . '

u

' l t

i ' . , ' .

cn

"(n m'r '

J(nrr*( ' l

' r rr ' (

l ' 71.

hiJ

; . ' . " ' t . " ' . " " '

J n

f r h r ' I

h l \

l l u r i q ' '

l f i . l

l q 7

r r ' l

' l ( ' \ L r

i r tcn

n l9?8,

ht

hcrc

crc

suhstnri r l

c l ibcrrc

ncrcrscs

n

go\crnnrcnl

. ' " . . : , '

" ' .

r r

. , : r ' , i r r i n F

( m r n ' l

h ' . r r h

u ' g l ' r ^ '

r t r

" I

n J , l i " '

. \ t . r 1 . i . r , r ,

l t (

L i \

h r h r '

t F

' n

n ( r l i l t r ' f ' l

r ' \

t r + t n r \

' r r c r ( s

c.r, . . . r l ' n G, rm n' Jr, lJ

rr rn

sc ' c \rt r '

I l7l

}

t n

. u m . " c ' . t c r ' ' r ," , r

' f s r s ' t Jn l " n r - i h ' r ! ! i' s ' t t J r n r r \0

rhc

slosdosn

f

rkcrs

: \ f rcr

1979

dcl ibcrrt f

nirrcuscs

rr

gocrnmen(

cxpcnditurcnd in st r tc lc l ic i rs

1vcir lc ro lc n ha lr ins hcnasn ir i , l h !

l imi . t i r rs { s ! .h Kcynes in

( , l ic ics

r rhc1;r . .

l

l i rn i e fr l$c i ] ' | rc r \ (s f

'hc

g,qr l

r r r*s ' r ' rh i ! r l \

r ( \ ( . , l fJ . , " ,1

. . . ' , t ' i , ' . r i i f , i ' l=.u '

thcsc o l ic ics c rcabandoncd.

t

is m

thc morc undi mcntal

roblcms

hat |c

g.'qrf-

Siio'da9

rnvcsrmenr

\\ot

-

r' ' (

tI"'\a

4!tc r

1973 hc

gro\{h

oi busincss \cd inlcrnlcnt

d i rcc ly onrr ibutcdhc

equivalcnt f0 .4

pcr ccnto fGl)P r ycrr to hc

gro.rrh

fovcr l lspcnding,cs s

rhn

onc

halfofthc

mpcrusI crcncd n rhcsixtics

rablc

4.2). ' l ' c o l l pscn

thc invcsrmcnt atc

ws

concctrtcrl

in 1974-5

(chnptcr

13), with r irrthcr

sharp undown

of s(ocks n 198{l-2. lut c lcn in thc rccovcry

criods

rhc

growh t f ixcd nlcsr mcnt as hclow hat fthc sixticsi r cxrmplc ,n thc ong

cxpansionf tc r 1982,

whcn

hcrc

sas

much

lh o f an inrcs tmcnt oon, thc

coniribution of invcshcnr r() cxpanding dcmnd wls distinctly lNcr lhirn

during rhc !cragc

of

rcccssions nd rccovcrics

n rhc sixrici.l

ilhc

st.rgnrtion of inlcrmcnt nor onl] inhibitcd mrkct

grolvh,

it rlso

)41+

un, l (m,, (J . . r l 'L r

"f

11,m,uhr i ,n . . ,n .1

h, , l -

r r , " r l ,

'

n ro t lu . rnrD,rrn l i . r l . . \ \h i lc nr \ ( , r r o l l l , r r n \ ( \ l r cnr. . ,1\cs , n )r{L l , r l r

i . .u in i l ' ' " r, : , , i lL, l , r i ,n

'.. . . --"1.

' , r

n

/,

, ' r '

's l

d$, 1

inrcstmcnt

r ings bout s igni f icant

oss f moncnmm. srrgnantcrc lol

rn \ cs rmcnrJ d . h - s c a . h

c r r

r , '

h c

. r n r r l

r n r L

S i r . ( ' h c . r i ' . 1

s

r i '

grosing.

n cJrhsu(cccding

crr

m,,(

ofrh"

in 'c ,rnfn '. nccd,. l moh r"4-

rcphcc hfl hrs bccnscrrppci l .

!hc

dccdc f tcr 1973, hcrcf i tre,. \ r i

subsnridldcclnrcr hc .rcol ccnn)ul tn)n.' lc

sro$rh

rc of rhcbosin.ss

capitaltoch lcrrgcd .3

pcr

ccnt

cr

crr

bcnlccn95 d 1973. lv 9lJ3l

had i l lcnn) 3.2

pcr

ccDr

cr

c

r.)

.y' f lJust

as thc.rccunrul .r i { ,n

te t Lcs rvhi lc o s,r l ,s i ( lc , rccolcrv n

'

inicsrmcnrakcs:rong ic ro cvc r p hc

g(^rthol

t |e crpi r l rock. s

f

havc ccn,hccrp,nsi , )nf inlcsrnrcnlf cr1982 i { lnor cch hc ncrescr

thc

goltlcn

gc. l , " ' . /89 hr rarc l

gro$1h

fthc cipi t . r l r) !k vcrgc(l

pcr

cn

nd

$rs sr i l l l t lo l thc

pcak

arc f5.6

pcr

cnt c.rchcdn 9?0. crc,

howclcr,hcrc vcrc cry mpo nl dif lr cnccsd$cc hcnn)! ) l , ,uks,r( l

bcrwccn rrrrf cruriDgr( l hc

csl )l

hc cononry

figurcs

. l rd 1 '1 ( l

hblc .1.3)J

In thcUSA hcb!\ i rc \sccrnrr la l i (D

i tc ovcr hc l r , ic

pLriod

97l- i l9

vas

cry s imihr o rh{

ol

(hc

9l s t thc rrc t

rhc

e|r( l

l

rc 198(ls

rs

somosh.r clos htn f rhc irlr sctcntics

ul

hccrrcnr

l rhc.sckcnin af

Clb

rcrunnlri(nr.s rcliri\ch slighr.n.hpr

hc

ccoNl'i(r) 'c {litr.(l sc\efcl\

. f tcr

1973,

ndccls lrcdl l istu$c{l

chrprcr

l ) rhc frrkcni gl . l ip,rncsc

accumulationcgann thccr l \ 1970sirh hconsr:rl orenccuntLrl . t t io.ir

1983hc rccn1r ion

rtc \rs Ll lbc l ()\1 l l o l rhr

c l

f r lc r hc

bcgiIning


5/13

Figlr 14.1

ACC manltctunngaccumlllLon,

973-89

lgrowlh

ales, beMoen

$e

beg 'n .

g

and

ed o r he

year

o jg rossrxedcap ' la

tock .

e rcen lage

ha.ger

F igr 4 .2 ACC us inessccuLr la ton973-E9 lg rowlhtes be lweeheeqnnrg

ndendol

rhe

er

o '

g ross

ixed .ap ia s lock .

e rcen lge

ranger

Table 14,3 The

cchurario

rre 1960-89

lergeou

r.r.nraoe

arowlr

rresoi

lop

r

ro

L

r960-73 r973-39 r973 r933 r939 r96073 i973

A9

5 1

2

of thc 1970s. ubscqucDrlv,

osevcr,hcrchs bccn norhcr

h.ronl0nr l

in !csrnrcr i ( rD D

Jrprn,

c!cr ing hc rccL|u l t i r ,r robxck

ner ly nro

doublc igurcs.By 1989 hc bsincss apital

tock n

Jpan

vs

nlovingup

to{rrds

its 1973

growth.

udged

y thh crucial ndicarorr leasr

hc crisis l

ccumuladonecmso have een ubstairlly

umourcdnJpnby he

rnd

of rhc 19805.

n luropc rheuory s rather i f ic.cnr

rr^pe. lcumul,,, ,n

ratewas he eeakest fihc thrce

blocswith capiral rock

grosth

dcclining

steadilyrom he

peak

ateof57z per

cent n 1970 o 27,

pcr

cent n

lhe mid-

1980s. y 1989 bc nvcstmcntboom'hadonly ushcdt back p ro3% pc r

Cn

important

encrd

eturc

of the

pattern

[ accuulrion asbccn

hc

muchweaker

apitlstock

growrh

n manufaciuringhxn n

torl busincss.n

botbEuropcand

pn

heaccumulationate

n manuficruringftcr

1973has

verged nderb.lf

the

prc-1971 ac.

hc USA1!l:;ccumlarionrc

n

manufactur ingn 1989washal f hcprc-1973rre

lD

J.rp3n

hc ccoycr ln

manuficrur ingccJmulr ionas ccn i t c

scr l r 'hn

inbu.inc\r ,r l rh.,uBl

ihis

has still lcft thc cpitl s tock

gro$ing

aro!nd hrcc imcs.s far

as n

luropc

and wiccas astas n rhc USA. Bcforc1973 hc ccunrul,rion

c l])

manufacturing|assimilr o or

grcarcr

hrn rhc rccumlrlation

tc clscwhcrci

after1973 $is slowcr ndusally lotslowcr. hc relarivc ck ofdin.mis'

in manufacturing,

he

ost

importanr omponcnr f intcrnrionnl

racle,

espccirlly ct*ccn thc ACCS,

hs bccn a major fcatu.c ol

rhc vcars oi

slagnation;

hc rcasonsor and mplicationsirhis will bc ccuften

hcm. n

th is nal ect ionfthebook.

nc

tr ik ingeshs

hat heupswingi thc rcr

lq80r roughr

rpaciry

r i l izr t ion

n mrnufrcrunng

ficrnr l l r

- r .

in I

Sq n

irs

peah

evcl f 1973-1;n themrjorEuropen

coomiest ras ctual lv

rther ighcr.

c r , g c r .

( r . .

. ' ,

The maior

rlackcning

n thc ratc

ofccumuldon irnd subscqrcntiilurc

regainhe

growth

otcapitalachieledn thc sirties s ccntrl

o rhc stigntion

rftcr 1973,

spcciallvn Europe.t is o hekeymanifcst onsofthis

stgnrrion

lhat vcnow urn,bcforc xamininghc rcasonsor rhcNerkncss l inrcstmcnt

- 11ld

(

v...


6/13

Stgnario

of

pro(lu.tivity

nd

rising

oncmplovmenr

ls

a maler

of

iccoun(ing,

a

slo{cr

grc{h

of

output

must

bc

rcflcctcd

rn I

. lo \vcr crsr l '

l

.np 'n)mcnr '

r

'l

ucr g_" t rh

r

prndu(r i \ in

nr

snmc

. , , - " , . i , o "

h e

^ t u

{ l ' '

g r ' " r l

o l

r m t l n ' m

n r m ' r \ r

n p r )

n n n g

:;:;;l;;;,";i

"''i"'.

thc

s,o$th

oi rhe

rbour

rorcc

dccrinci

in

pararrcl

A

a. ' , .1 " . " - t

" , . " " " "

I ' i1

' 'n" ' i

r r ' l

nn\ lJr (J

inr

nr{ (

J"$lv

grnqing

i ' i "" ' : ,"J"'. 'J , p. ' ' iu cni.^ 'rncsv ^ n hcr h( m- "i r\ '

; i ] , ' t ; ; ;"

; ; '

r"". i i

sncr

' ,

r 'ur( '

r ' r""

cr

gror h r i ' r ,c*er '-s' i'

, i l

j ."" '

- '", ' , i ; '

." ' r i ,

.

rh,r, , '

, ,rdc-nr '

,acchc'c

Jrr

cnr

orm'

"i ",*;.ti

i.*

n"*"*ncc.

Thc

bcncr

mplovmcn

s mintincd

hc

morc

"'J".," ^ i ' ""*

'urr(r( .

trh

r

'h\r

nn\ 'q'ncc\

'r

rak(-h' r

pJ

i l . . " * " i

i "

{ , t r , r t

c ^x ( .

. , r c

, n r in (d .

' r

s i t t n

l

{ , r wn

n

".."1,1"1,u,

* l-"

'"

brunt

s

rakcn

v

vorkcrs'

kc-homc

'r' First

wc

:;;;t;; ;h;

"",""'

to

which

a

slorcr

growth

of ouqrur

hs

hecn

divided

tp

bc*ec

cmplovmcnr

nd

rouct i l iN

t b lc

14

4!

TabLe

44 Ou lF l

r r r ! . lv r !

a ' r l

t rov ' l

l960

89 lav 'Drag

'n!a

percen lage

OECD

r9607

r9t3

89

1 9 6 0 . 1 3

r9r3 09

r960

73

r973 8!

So.e OECO.

rli,t

ri irr,..

Ecar'nr'

Ota'k

l hc n,o.r

r l i , t

( ' r ,

r

ni

' r l - l !

14

' rhrr '

"r lhc

A(

( '

r ' J

\h" lc d l l

,1" 1"" j .""

' "

' , j ip ' , grourh

rs

'ccn " l lu tr 'J

r

I Ju( l inu

n

tr{" l r ( r r \ i r }

nr* '1.

l - .r1, ' ' - "" i

gnrrh

ha'

c 'n 'nucd

ar

hc

rmc rr ' (

s

hci"rc cTl

i; ; i, ; ,", ; i ; ; ' ; , \

. i.".a

n"',r '

n

rJn.

u'

nnr

r

' ' rr n

r u'nc

nr

. ' . ' " "L l t

* . . f * " ' "

I hr r l '

in

lhc USA

Hnq rhrs

n

he

' ionr i lLd

irh

rhc

"; ; ; ;""; ; ; i ; ,"

"". .Drnvmc.

c,hc

"n

r

hr

nc\r

ccrinn

u'

nc

rh c

' ' ,-"11,,"

"i :

"

c'

m"'

r l 'cn

'" i \ t

' l tscNl

irrnr ' \ruLri\rn

r i 'wr\ '

Thc

productivitY

cisis

\All

thc

blocs

achicved

much

slosc'

productili!

gro"th

rftcr

1973

(tabb

s

rhe rnznulcturins

ccior

of

rhc USA'

wherc

2 2

2 5

4 3

1 8

2 a

0 0

2 6

0 6

t 5

t 9

2 A

9 6

3 9

a 1

8 2

3 0

- 4 2

l 3

0 9

4 8

2 l

2 1

3 1

1 6

- 2 1

l l

Tab le 4 .5Pr .d rc ! ,v

y .

1960

8a {ve! r i

J re r .c . r !e

rowl r r

a lcs l

1960 73

1979

B7

1960

73

1973 79

r979

87

4 2

2 2

t 9

2 5

0 6

3 2

t 2

I l

l 5

1 7

a 9 r 0

product iv i

cboundcd l icr

1979. lur sLrhstxnr i r l

rr

o l drc r rpni gr i^ l rh

thcrc cprcscnrcdhc

cxpansion f thc c lcc ronicsnust t

(as

hc

out |ur o l

comput ing

po\cr

rosc

cnonnouny) ,

rh i lc

in manr orhcr nr u lcrur ing

r n d r s r r t .q u r h r ! r \ n r s r n f n , r n J J i , . n r l l l r n n t , . r r ' i , , l , . l n , , . r , . '

resul ts

scc

ch. f tcr

l5)1 lhc dccl inc n

product iv i ty

ros ih ws parr icul r ly

hrsc in

J ipn

(5-6

pcr

ccnr

cr

vcar s lorvdorn

n borh busincss nd

ninuf icrur i g) ! l r . hcr

css lsc$crc

borr

2

tcr

ccnrp

,gr r

n

l i r roc

nd

US busincss).

{-hc

usual

pancrn

was ir prrxlLrcrlvir_ar^vth

ro slo$ .lo\i

asmuch s, nd usu.11). rhcrorc

hn, hc l rc of gro$rhof Hxcd

f i r r l

pcr

*orker (scc

hgurc a.3)nSowhi lc

rhc

sencr l

icrdr

bc ind rhc

p(x lucr i l in

s lowdown is thc

dccl i i rc n accumulx ion,lcn rhc nvcsrmcnt

h r d id l1 lkr

p l .cc

v ic ldcd

nal lcrproduct i l i t v

ins. h is$as

dcspire c lcrcmt ion l izxr ion

undcr

hc

prcssurc

f r is inF ncnrpbymlrnr! ich

. r l l l ic rcdhc d ir i (nr l

c r \ \

. n J u . r ' i f ' . n , ' \ r

' t

r h ( r . l \ .

r c , l

" , r r ' i ' . t

lhc crccrs o l p )duct iv i t ) lo{do$ l ,avcbccn rc lr h)vc l l in , r dr sr ic

s los} ( loenn rhcgrsth

of l iv ing hndrr i ls inanccr l uro l

cr rD ings fom . r t

and ' r rhcgrosth

ofsocia lcxpcndirurc.: igurc

4. .1sho\vshr$orks' l i l inK

standrdshalcbccn

ro* ingbyonlyaround

pcrccnrpcr lc i rs incc

97l i rh i5

is rucc!cn oiJ ipan shcrc product i l i r ] rowrh

s

conr inucdr rcq)cct ib lc

mtc

( in

conrpir r isoni th long-rngrowrh

n rhc ACCS f not \ i rh

l lp l

's

goldcn

gc

pcr l rmancc)Thc rowrh

fsocia l rpcnr l i r r rc

hcr l th,

duc r io ,

pcnsions

tc. ) lso

dccl lhedai tcr 1973 nd ovcr thc wholc pc. iod

soci i l

expcndnutc

ccordcd ess han hi f i ts prcv iousgr^vrhi

s ince 1980 rhc

growth

ratc has bccn litdc

morc thrn onc-rhi.d th.t ol thc goldcn

gc.

pne

imponant issuc in rcspcct

oi the

productivity

slovdorvn is shcrhcr

capibl goodsproduction wasequally ffectcd. In ficr drc price of invcstnrcnt

goods

n thc

OICD appearso havc iscnnca. l t I pcr ccnr

morcsioqlv hrn

consumcr

goods

aftcr 1973

(rs

comprcd o

7, pcr

cenr nore

quickll,

bdwccn

s 6

3 8

5 l

3 2

3 9


7/13

t ]

, , , ' , ' "

u5

llSA

Eu'ope

Eurooe

JP^

rq6o7 l r979-37

1960-73

979 37

r9607 l

F igre 4 3 Manu l3c lu rngrodct ivv r960-87 laveGgean.lal

pe'cenlqe

gfowlh

ff

P@dudvv

USA

LISA

Eu'ope

Eutope

196s-73

r973

36

1965 3

1973 6

F ioure l44

Produc l

r lY nd

we

f re

1965-86

verage

" !a lperce lage

rowl

Gresr

ii',"',]-"i." ".

*"n"i

'.osmprio

lr

orearned

comesee

Grv'

1es1) ocia

iii""i.iilrJ .i;i;.;t"";"n. ransresrc s expresseder eadr he opurlionr

i"",'):t

:::"'.^"'

arso

EcD.

eBB.he

u' oe

rsoc'ar

'or'on:

resl

l r r , l r

, ! l

|

, 7 1 ) J

1 , , ,

, r r r r \ r \ l , . ' r1 , , . , r ' l , , 1 r " 1 ,

r r r ' , , r , 1 $ , , l , r , 1

r l \

, , r . , f

, i \ ,

l , ' f

l i ' r r r r

r r r . , , , , r . , , r r l

, , r l I t , t ) r l

" ' l '

* \ r , \ l l ' 1 '

l , r '

, , , r , i l " , r e , l

, , l ' , { r " ( , \

, , 1 \ , , , i r ( i 1 , , '\ r l , ,

L ' \ r ' l

l ' L r

l

F x l s

l i r i \ { r , , l

\ , r h r . , , 1

h \

, r r r | 1 r 1

r 1 r t r . ( l

i r l i r l , , i , r , r l i t l l u L

1 , 1

t r r k , r

, v s i , , l , ,

, , , r 1 ) r r

r t ) , r r l

i r i , ,

\ ( r

l ! 1 i \ )

..\

' lhr

r is ,y 'r,rrrr l,rnrcnr) .-

t\

{ l

\---

___

.'

iJhc r isc r uncnr t lo!nrcnr s ccr l t | i r rh ccn hc ) r1)si r i l ) lc xprcssi l )n,f hc

s lagna i i ) )

f ourNt

( i iBurc

14.5) .

nd \c l , s dcscr ihc( lrh(^c, hcrc

hs fo l

bccn nr l r l l o f l in thc

gulrh r ) f cnrpl i ' \mc'9

\vhcrc thc h r \c the

uncmplo\cd prung

rrnr i ' l hc csscnr i lic ls rc

prcsc rcdr

' l

ih lc 14.6

Figue

4 5 !nen]r,loymenl

ates. 1970 88

lpercentse)

Sru

OECD

Eco',.Ourrodr

{Thc

l is ins

ir rk

in rhc crrnrrv.n

r ,{

'hc

.c In uncnr1"mcnt

s

hc

bcklur

r frhc.unr i i o f lbu. \n can.unr

rowrh, ' l

mplntmcnr

rl l

implv. isc n onc'nplo!mcnrfrhc hbour orcc xpnds

i i rcr . ' Ih is s

cr1crh

whr rs rppcncdn thcACCr l tcr rs

wholc incc 97i .Lt ropc,

hcrc

pract ical lv

l l hc isc

n

OECD

unemplormcnras cen onccntr tcd,l i f jcs

th is

attern.

hcr combinrt ion

f a fastcr

rowth

fpopul t ionf

$rking

age and a slorvcrdecreasen thc

proportion

of

hc

populadon

ho are

rcgistcrcds

in

rhc abour orcc

hc'participation

are') ombincdo sccurc l

doubling f the

growth

atc of thc labour orce.Such

a changcwolld havc


8/13

244

Ca1tng\^/ttll

tc

Slowdown

fable

14.6

Emplovenl.

labolr

force

percenlage

rowlh

rares)

and

!nempovmnr

r960-89

{avetge

annlar

OECD

r960-73

r973

89

r 9 6 0 . l 3

1973 9

1960

3

r973

89

t960

73

1973

89

r960

73'

r973

89

0 0

0 7

0 9

o 2

0 3

- 0 1

0 2

0 8

0 0

1 9

2 A

0 l

1 3

0 3

2 0

2 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

1 3

0 9

0 9

- 0 8

0 l

0 6

1 2

1 0

o 0

0 1

1 1

0 0

1 . 2

l 0

-Q.2

-o.2

0 3

0 5

1 0

1 3

0.3

0 0

0 2

a ?

1",,)',.

'dri"

,".-'

s..

"r

E'"n"

oi'lor

'lllili'ffi

r

:;i[fi

ill*iii,l'".i;,15i

l:,:,'i;"r:,i:

l),1*rliii

Tl"lffiIil,ill;:tjilil*;l

tl;

i{rriinif[r;l.l"ru'lntr*rihihi,**

"Hil"f,:r';'."illlHr

iii:lil,Illi;r;:#i.ti'.1r#Ht;:

.r#i

i:*:.]il*iil+:i

rr"'*":ll;*

,,,';*,:U*:rn*

$:riT}:F!

:;;;'i:li]$tin:]filill

,;;:'

';

ii;;;'i;;

Dc-indurtr ja|zt ion

nd

slructurr l

chrng-

basgrownpcrccnr

cr

ycarmorc lowlyhan cruiccs

mploymcnr boh hc

USA nd

Japn

si'rcc197J. lcrc, howcver,

ve

irus on thc crscol I,)unrpc,

\|here

hc cxtcnr fthh dc-industrializaions bccncvcnmorc

clcrc

nd

(s

rable 4.7 holvs) asbcenassociatcdith a ovcalldcclinc

r thc numbcrol '

indusrr i l

bs.

Tab l

4 .7OECD-E iope .c to fa lo l rp ! i ,

roduc l

' r y ndep

of enr

1960,871aver6ge

annuar

erce.l9e

gowrh.atesl

1960,73

1973-87

GDP

5 l

4 a

2 8

3

3 0

0 6

2 A

1 3

2 7

2 1

2 5

0 8

l 9

1 2

r 3

a 2

0 0

- 3 8

- 2

0

- t

3

- 2 0

2 a

- 2 4

1 a

I B

- 4 2

a 2

sou.

0ECD

BFr.rcalSrsr.s

960

a7

.A

slo\vcr

n^h

ol

indusrr i i l

nt lo\ 'mcnrhnn t scniccs

vrs l rerttr '

ferurc

,r

r ' r r

BolJcn

s(. lhfn

q.,,

J

rcr lccr,.n

'r

r tr .

r .rs r

gr,r ,r t i , ,r

Produci \ i \

n induslry

hn n scniccs,r

rhcvohlnrc l ourpur

f rhc wo

sccrorsas gro\\'ing

r thc

samc pccd. hc

shrrcol industril

nrpl('Imcnrn

lolalcmplolnrcnt till grc$ slighrl!,becausc i hc \cn tni rundo$nol

cmploymcnl

n agriculturc

producr

of both

slow ourpur

roNrh

nd rr'id

produciviq

rowth).J

Afrcr

1973 hc situarir)n

hangcdn imporrant a\s

t:i.st,

rhc rurdo$n

in

agricultural

nploymcnl

cscd ro

abourhrlf rhc

goldcn

gc mrc.

Whcn

ob

mrrlcts

lnckcncd,

hc arc t which

bour rs

dr$D

out

ot tc3)unlnsidc

slowcd

olvn

scc

haptcr

l) . I ,rodudi l ihgro*rh

dckcncd

) rn

cqurl

mount

n both

'rrs l |_"l .rn. lcniccs.' lhcrc

is,

hoc\cr, much

biggel

slo$downn ouipurgrosrh

n

indusrn

ftcr 1973 grc\

ontl

h as st s

scNiccsrrpur. ' lhc

csuhwrs rh indLrer ir l

mplourcnt

l t bl ncrrtv

2

pcr

cnt cr

cr .Sodc-industr ial iz ion,

i ts

nrcscnsetdcctining

hrrc l

cmpbymcnrn ndusrv,ccxmc rc.r l iN.

As rgucd

borc,hc

dccl inc ldrcDmbcr

t ndusrr i i t j ) trs

l l I i )p( r i icr

19731s prrt ieul l r lv


9/13

)a6

Captns

nh ttr

stowdown

.)*

.rtl.n-i"'-

^ f - . . , , f . .n ' r .r rs l .uroDtin

. \ D l i n r i n n

m i ! . 1 , t

c d r c l i n r

n n r

t \ l

{ r s

n l

m r n r r t r c " r n ' r '

u r ^ n

l \

r " , lu . - r '

t r .cd

n.rcr ' ing

mnr

Dn

ram

PrnJ

dr{

,nc\Lh

ndusrnh/ 'ng

:;; i;;;-.l.ot,",

r?).

A fmilir

rory

iD

EuroPc

h's bccn

of

factory

"i.',,;";

^;"

."."";'"

," ,isins

mports

$hilc

this

has ccn

mportant

or some

i . ' , , , ' " . " : ' . . , " " 1 ' " i * ,

' t .

r h .UK

s u .h J i r r ' I n - r ' l m r r l c r s IF n o r x n p l i c d r 0

i ." ' .1-.

' . "

'a,, i . . . l ,

. i

trs

^;

nr.rnrr t i r run'

i "nr

hc

:l L

Fh( lmm

$Js

i;iri.l' i',

l9z:r

t,, s9Z

illii;n

in 1987

I'hcsc

nct crports

cprtscnlcd

constant

(?

ocf

ccnt)

hrc

fmnufctur ing

rcduction

nd

hus nnor

irccr lv

xplain

il,J 'r"'" -l,"tr, ot inrlustrirl utui in lrrropc Onc mporunr ct('rwas hc

. l l "

s ' , , ' i ' l ' , ' l

. * ' , " , . ,

s h i - h

\

h r ! r ' ' r ' ( ' t ' J r n " r h ( r ( ' r n ( ' r i " n '

i n c c

,

, ' " ' ; .1

' r ; , ' . iNA'nr(nr

s, l i rTrt"rr innIch

onrcnrr t(J

n

indusrnal

",i,.'.i''i.".i1""'-.'

-

uil,1ingsi,

sln"

gro'urh finvcstncnr

illhold back

i',"t,rf

*tp*

gio'"ttr'

lt mav

also

bc hl

consumcrs

rc

llall\Jhittig

rosartls

hc consumption

f

relatilclv

morc

scniccs

in

addition

o hling

0

", ' ."r"

f* t"-

" i ."ucti \ i$

grc*, lo* l l

lcdin81o

cl tnclr-

r

cof

and

nr(

in.

csJ

l ""c ' .

orc

r ' rJ '

for

hcL

K

rgg's '

l - rr hi '

hJs d

Jc r

r , ' i n ' . ' . . ' , ' , " " , 1

r l c g r c .

l i h

u s h : '

a

" s i n r n mc

n u r r r n

n

UCCD

rcfms

hc UK

cisc

mv

not bc Npicr l

, r l l " rc"c,

t c

pr"cisci r ""sonor thc

!ckncss

l indust r i l

ur iNrh

I loropc

;r i , ," "r i " i " . i ,r iobs 'as hid ' nr ' ior i nucncc n drc c\tcntof

""cmplov"rc

,,crc*"

ln

hothJPn

nd rhc

USA,

hcrc

miof

ncrcascs

n

""" ' r i i " i ."",

"-" "*cd,

ro;l

indurr ial

mplo)mcnr

1s

hishr

in 198?

i"n ii'

tqZ.'

" lr"'p"

,"ith

nass

uncmplor-rcnr

t

$asmole

han 5

percenr

i."t.. florco'".,

"Lin luroPc

r

$as n

thosc

ountrics

ith hc

severcl

oss

01 ' rs t i i l

io l)s

Spin,

K,

Sclgiurn.

rchnrl ,

crhcr lds

Dd

rrancc)

har

, l . i ' i r "

i " " '* -1t"u."",

sas

grcarcst.n

somc

frhcsc

ornrr ics

sLrch

s hc

L ^'i

.t"i".1

,*mplovmcnt

rosc


10/13


11/13


12/13

F isure

4 .8

ACC

bus 'ness

cc lmu lon

nd

pl l ra les

1960

89

Duropc,

hcrc

rhc

ycarsof

srag:ration

nd

mass

nemplovment

avc

by and

i.e"

r"rtur"A

p-nuuitlcv,

hc

rcco!ery

fccumularion

s

bccn

crY

cntrtilc

rr icrcs 4.10.l . l l rnd 14.12).' i i " ' i " i i r ' " i . r " " " ' i" r t h i s p r o b a b lv l i c s i n t h c l a c t t h a r' d e s p i t c i t s s h d r l

r,li,;h;

p;;;; ':'"

in

Japan

appcars

till.to

hNc

bccn

hishcr

h

clscwherc

,," ,sh conclu*r"ns

u'r

hc

renr i 'c

i ,ausc

of rhc

( l i lh 'u l$

nf

making

."." ' " i l ' "" .

" i

o-c"ulhn

r\r^s:

counrr ics

hcrc

mcrhoJ'

f

'31(ulat ion

- ' " ' '

i : ;c lq; l

; i , ' ; ' ' ,s"

, ,"

In

businc*

rs ccn

hishcr

hJn

rhc

;, \ ; ; ; ; ; ;" ," , ;" . ;"h

,hc-mo'r

ompJrbrc

' r imare(

r

cr

ccnr

nJpan

;:;;;;;ii;

ii

;..

."nt

in cernanv

and

he usA

and

pcr ccnt

n ihe

i;:;;-"',

thc

p.otit

.,rrc

hs

bccn uch

morc

stablc

Japan

han

n

!

!

!

a

3

!

!

Flg!r.

14.9

ACC malactuq

accm!

al

on ad

profu ates'

1960

89

Fig! re 4.10 ln led

Staresusess cc!muLarD

nd

rolr

r .s1960

9

.

Fiqure

4,11

apaese

usessccuull ,o.nd

ror

ra l ls

960

89

most fd)cor l rcr ountr ics,

h ich s n imt)( tr r i r

ncr l ) rnsr b i l iz ingr t i r i l i t r

condence

ec

igurc

14.7).

AII our daraare

br

pre-taxprolis,

ut laxarion

l

pfo6s

erainlycunnol

explain he disparatc

chaviour f accunlarion.

t is truc that

ihc rrte ol

corporate

axion scems o

hvc bcen owcr n

Jap.n

hin in c USA nd

Germany, ut

not than n thc UK.

Moreover,herc

trc no cuts n corporrtt

tax n

Japan

which could hclp o c\Tlin

thc upswign accumulrioD

horc

(table

1.11).

It is clearat thc

powerfl

pswingo

thc rnteol

!.c

mul,tion

n

J.pn

it

rheendofthe 1980s al aboui hrecdmes hc rate n rheUSAor DuropeGce

tblc 14.3) cannor e

sholly xplainedy

hebchviour fproliability

Alicr

a

breathinB

pacc n thc larer

1970sand carly

9tiOs hc strong cndcncy


13/13

u5a

EuroP

F igure

415 Share

rces .

1960-88 r l l rve

o

epacement

a lue r

1960 100)

E

t

[ , e z s

Eliess

Nl ,e i?

organizrion

iproducion

scc

haptcr5). But

outsidcmanulcturing,

herc

rhc rateof accumulat'ons cvcnhighcrdesphemodcrate ro*lh in rhc home

markci,

r secmsikcly

rht the boom n

.el nvestment xs

a substntially

spccularile

haraclc.

propcrty

nvcstmcnt

ndsoon) Wnh

a much owcr

ate

of

prolir

from

producdre

&tivit)

than

previously,n mnufacturing

nd

scnices,

he cxplantion

or highshare

riccs

h cxpecttions

f largecpital

ganrs n hcassers

cldbycompanics,

uchasof6ccblocls

n ccntralTokyo

A

fll

in sharc

riccs

n

'l

okyoof somc30

pcr cenr n rhc irst

quirtcr

of 1990

sLrggcrshit rhis

ariculrr

bubblemayhvc

burst

ttrc L"ui!

(lu

Augusr

1990)cnrphrsizccl

hc significancc

|

shaky

propcrt!

nd shrc

mrkctsl

.lp'n\

hugc omNrcirlb.rts

c clughl

n thcspiral.t

Propcr.r

nd hrrcs

l 1 ! l l , v ) n r i l h r t l , r \ .. . A . l r t . i c s c c r r s h . d l d b e Q mc S l d b n l o n c , s a n d v h c n i t

cirhc.

rccs ocl

hdnLso et dlcir cding

or, hcavcnibid,

r bnlG tn rLr

o

bur l:ighr

ofrhc

world\

tc biEger

bants rcJapnesci

hcyaccounl

or .lmor

t0 '2,of i l lc rx+hordcr

banl ons nd

sizcdblchunk fdomcr ic

cndi gn

,\,cricr d Brir.in.

l

hc

sddcnoss

l

thr

{ould be disastrous

'li,

md.r,Jutn's

comnrcrci,l

rnks ook

nprcgnablcBu hcyhav

adc

20'l. of rhcir outsnding

ons decrly

o domcric

Propcty

nd consrrlclron,

andaruund

0',l, iindircct

cxposures cludd

Wo6e, he n abilitv

o mairrain

crdi lines dcpends

n rhc rockmrkcr.

n scandalous

omPronisc

hen

intcrn.rioal

apilal-adeq.c)

ulcs

wrc

8reed

nderlhBnk

or bternational

Scrrlcmcnh

n Rslc,

pnese

anks fc

llorcd to conr

45% of unrealised

gains

r shc inverncnts

s crpital.

Lverv ime hc Nikkei's

all makeshose

sins

sndlhr,rhebantl capit.lshrinks ndsnr rhcir ending

ls rhcrc

a link

bcvccn rhcsc rarhcr di\ersc indicatorsol nnrncil

vulnerabiliq

highcr

gorernmcnt

cbr atios,ncrcscd onsumcr orrowing,

wcalcr

corportc alanc hccts,

roublcd nncialnrirutions, cl

in\csrrcn

dishrtcd bv spcculativconsidcrations?hc common hread s thrt thc! ill

developed,

hhough crrainly

o r diffc.entcxtcnr

n diffcrcnicountrics,| a

situtionwhcre he cxisting

rofiabiliry

f

producrivc

nvcstmcnr .d lrl10n,

and

confidccc

n

thc

sustfincd rowth

cccssaryo raintain rrd ncrcasc

hir

pro6tabiliry

adbeen rodcd.n thissensche urbulcncc fthc l5 or soycars

prior

o thc rccovery i the acr 980s, he reflcction f hc basic orccsol '

overccumulition, as cli a dccp mprint on rhc linncial rucurcs of rhc

ACCs.

glyn, a., harrison, j., & armstrong, p. (1991). capitalism since 1945. oxford basil blackwell..pdf

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