GLOBEC Synthesis from a GLOBEC Synthesis from a Program Manager’s Program Manager’s

PerspectivePerspective

GLOBEC NWA SI MeetingGLOBEC NWA SI MeetingJune 22, 2004June 22, 2004

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SynthesisSynthesis It’s hard!It’s hard!

• What to focus on What to focus on • What to leave outWhat to leave out

There’s never enough moneyThere’s never enough money No single way to do itNo single way to do it

• Multiple pathsMultiple paths• Multiple groups of peopleMultiple groups of people

No prescribed end productNo prescribed end product

Why is synthesis so hard?Why is synthesis so hard? Make general conclusions from Make general conclusions from

specific informationspecific information• Requires speculation and extrapolationRequires speculation and extrapolation

Takes lots of time and interactive Takes lots of time and interactive discussiondiscussion

Can’t be done by large group, usually Can’t be done by large group, usually takes smaller group of 4 – 8 takes smaller group of 4 – 8 individuals, or several smaller groups individuals, or several smaller groups which come together along the waywhich come together along the way

Synthesis (cont)Synthesis (cont) DataData goes through processing & goes through processing &

statistics to create statistics to create • InformationInformation gets synthesized to gets synthesized to

createcreate KnowledgeKnowledge gets integrated into gets integrated into the political process to inform the political process to inform and enableand enable•ActionAction which (hopefully) will which (hopefully) will result in result in

Societal BenefitSocietal Benefit

The PART ProcessThe PART Process

Program Assessment Rating ToolProgram Assessment Rating Tool• ““The PART was developed to assess and improve The PART was developed to assess and improve

program performance so that the Federal government program performance so that the Federal government can achieve better results. A PART review helps identify can achieve better results. A PART review helps identify a program’s strengths and weaknesses to inform a program’s strengths and weaknesses to inform funding and management decisions aimed at making funding and management decisions aimed at making the program more effective.”the program more effective.”

The NOAA Ecosystem Matrix program The NOAA Ecosystem Matrix program will be “PART-ed” this yearwill be “PART-ed” this year• COP sits within Ecosystem Matrix, as does much of NMFSCOP sits within Ecosystem Matrix, as does much of NMFS• NMFS was “PART-ed” last year, with a rating of NMFS was “PART-ed” last year, with a rating of

“adequate”“adequate”

PART QuestionsPART Questions

Has the program demonstrated adequate progress in achieving its Has the program demonstrated adequate progress in achieving its long-term performance goals? long-term performance goals?

Do all partners (including grantees, sub-grantees, contractors, cost-sharing partners, and other government partners) commit to and work toward the annual and/or long-term goals of the program?

Does the program have a limited number of specific long-term performance measures that focus on outcomes and meaningfully reflect the purpose of the program?

GLOBEC LegacyGLOBEC Legacy National SSC Meeting, 5/04 National SSC Meeting, 5/04

Modeling advancesModeling advances DataData StudentsStudents Influence on future programsInfluence on future programs What will be the legacy of What will be the legacy of

GLOBEC NWA?GLOBEC NWA?

New US GLOBEC CommitteesNew US GLOBEC CommitteesNational SSC Meeting, 5/04 National SSC Meeting, 5/04

Data management Data management (Wiebe plus many others)(Wiebe plus many others) National conferences National conferences (Haidvogel, Batchelder, (Haidvogel, Batchelder,

Werner)Werner) Pan-regional synthesis Pan-regional synthesis (Fogarty + regional Chairs)(Fogarty + regional Chairs) Book(s)Book(s) (Ohman, Beardsley)(Ohman, Beardsley) Quantitative skill assessment Quantitative skill assessment (McGillicuddy, (McGillicuddy,

Brodeur)Brodeur) Ecosystem approaches to management Ecosystem approaches to management

(Murawski, Fogarty)(Murawski, Fogarty)

Overall GLOBEC GoalsOverall GLOBEC Goals ““GLOBEC is designed to evaluate the likely GLOBEC is designed to evaluate the likely

consequences of changes in global climate consequences of changes in global climate and physics to the sustainability of animal and physics to the sustainability of animal production in the sea” production in the sea” (GLOBEC Report #1, page 11)(GLOBEC Report #1, page 11)

““GLOBEC intends to vastly increase our GLOBEC intends to vastly increase our understanding of the fundamental understanding of the fundamental mechanistic processes that dictatemechanistic processes that dictate• The abundance of marine animalsThe abundance of marine animals• The fluctuations in their abundance, and The fluctuations in their abundance, and • The secondary production of ocean ecosystems The secondary production of ocean ecosystems

in the context of a changing global climate” in the context of a changing global climate” (GLOBEC Report #1, page 20)(GLOBEC Report #1, page 20)

The GLOBEC ChallengeThe GLOBEC Challenge ““The challenge to all prospective The challenge to all prospective

investigators is to demonstrate investigators is to demonstrate convincingly that their work leads to convincingly that their work leads to a new level of understanding of the a new level of understanding of the links between the atmosphere, ocean links between the atmosphere, ocean physics, and population dynamics of physics, and population dynamics of marine organisms, in the context of marine organisms, in the context of climate change” climate change” (GLOBEC Report #6, p 6)(GLOBEC Report #6, p 6)

GLOBEC NWA HypothesesGLOBEC NWA Hypotheses(GLOBEC Report #6, pp 2-3)(GLOBEC Report #6, pp 2-3)

In situ growth rather than lateral exchange is the dominant In situ growth rather than lateral exchange is the dominant process controlling the abundance of animals on the Bank;process controlling the abundance of animals on the Bank;

Seasonal density stratification over the S flank causes prey Seasonal density stratification over the S flank causes prey aggregation in the pycnocline and thus increased survival of aggregation in the pycnocline and thus increased survival of predator populations;predator populations;

Temporal changes in mixing and stratification may control the Temporal changes in mixing and stratification may control the abundance and spp. composition of phytoplankton which in abundance and spp. composition of phytoplankton which in turn may result in different rates of growth and production of turn may result in different rates of growth and production of herbivorous copepods in well-mixed, frontal, and stratified herbivorous copepods in well-mixed, frontal, and stratified regions of the Bank;regions of the Bank;

The occurrence of large, episodic exchanges of water and The occurrence of large, episodic exchanges of water and organisms on/off the Bank contributes to variability in popn organisms on/off the Bank contributes to variability in popn abundances;abundances;

Seasonal density stratification and the processes of turbulent Seasonal density stratification and the processes of turbulent mixing influence predator-prey encounter rates and thus the mixing influence predator-prey encounter rates and thus the growth and survival of individual organisms;growth and survival of individual organisms;

Predation rather than starvation is the dominant source of Predation rather than starvation is the dominant source of mortality of fish larvae; predation rather than advective loss is mortality of fish larvae; predation rather than advective loss is the dominant source of mortality of copepods.the dominant source of mortality of copepods.

““But we didn’t get the resources to accomplish But we didn’t get the resources to accomplish everything we had outlined in the Implementation Plan”everything we had outlined in the Implementation Plan”

““The study is envisioned to begin in 1993, with major field The study is envisioned to begin in 1993, with major field experiments to be conducted in 1994, 1996, and 1998…In experiments to be conducted in 1994, 1996, and 1998…In the intervening years, 1995 and 1997, less intensive broad-the intervening years, 1995 and 1997, less intensive broad-scale survey work should be conducted to monitor inter-scale survey work should be conducted to monitor inter-annual variability” No mention of synthesis phase or further annual variability” No mention of synthesis phase or further phases beyond field years.phases beyond field years.

Funding began in 1993, field experiments in 1995, 1997, Funding began in 1993, field experiments in 1995, 1997, 1999. Decade of funding since program began. 1999. Decade of funding since program began.

Total = $54 M over 11 yearsTotal = $54 M over 11 years • $10.5M for shiptime$10.5M for shiptime• $4M per year 1993-1995 = $12M$4M per year 1993-1995 = $12M• $3M in 1996 = $3M$3M in 1996 = $3M• $4.5M per year 1997-2001 = $22.5M$4.5M per year 1997-2001 = $22.5M• $2M per year 2002-2004 = $6M$2M per year 2002-2004 = $6M

““But we didn’t get the shiptime to accomplish everything But we didn’t get the shiptime to accomplish everything we had outlined in the Implementation Plan”we had outlined in the Implementation Plan”

# cruises # cruises (IP)(IP)

d/cruise d/cruise (IP)(IP)

Total DAS Total DAS (IP)(IP)

# cruises # cruises (actual)(actual)

DAS DAS (actual)(actual)

19941994 1515 4242 228228 88 8282

19951995 99 2323 117117 2323 273273

19961996 1515 4242 228228 1111 115115

19971997 99 2323 117117 2323 252252

19981998 1515 4242 228228 1212 122122

19991999 00 00 00 2727 331331

TotalsTotals 6363 918918 104104 11741174

Vastly increase our understandingVastly increase our understanding

What do you know now about Georges What do you know now about Georges Bank that you didn’t know 10 years ago?Bank that you didn’t know 10 years ago?• If you were to re-write the NWA If you were to re-write the NWA

Implementation Plan (GLOBEC Report #6) pp Implementation Plan (GLOBEC Report #6) pp 6-24, what would be different?6-24, what would be different?

• Georges Bank book?Georges Bank book?• ““State of Georges Bank” report?State of Georges Bank” report?

How will changing climate/NAO affect GB How will changing climate/NAO affect GB processes, structure, and function?processes, structure, and function?• The secondary production of ocean ecosystems The secondary production of ocean ecosystems

in the context of a changing global climatein the context of a changing global climate

Important EventsImportant Events 98/99 recruitment98/99 recruitment

• 98 copepods?98 copepods? Scotian Shelf crossoversScotian Shelf crossovers Hydrographic interannual variabilityHydrographic interannual variability NAO shiftsNAO shifts

Can you ask better questions Can you ask better questions at the end than you could at the at the end than you could at the

beginning?beginning?““In some ways we are more confused In some ways we are more confused

than ever, but we feel that we are than ever, but we feel that we are confused on a higher level and about confused on a higher level and about more important things”more important things”

What questions would you now ask What questions would you now ask about Georges Bank/GoMe, that you about Georges Bank/GoMe, that you couldn’t ask before GLOBEC?couldn’t ask before GLOBEC?

Set up for pan-regional synthesisSet up for pan-regional synthesis

What are the dominant/controlling What are the dominant/controlling processes on Georges Bank?processes on Georges Bank?

What larger (basin-scale) processes What larger (basin-scale) processes are at work to determine popn dyn are at work to determine popn dyn and secondary production on GB?and secondary production on GB?

How would a climate signal propagate How would a climate signal propagate through the GB ecosystem?through the GB ecosystem?• ““links between the atmosphere, ocean physics, links between the atmosphere, ocean physics,

and population dynamics of marine organisms, and population dynamics of marine organisms, in the context of climate change”in the context of climate change”

NOAA DeliverablesNOAA Deliverables Predictive capabilityPredictive capability

• What can you predict? On what time/space scales? What can you predict? On what time/space scales? With what uncertainty? Who will use these predictions? With what uncertainty? Who will use these predictions? How will these predictions be used?How will these predictions be used?

Management usesManagement uses• What GLOBEC results are being used now in fisheries What GLOBEC results are being used now in fisheries

management? How has GLOBEC improved the management? How has GLOBEC improved the management of living marine resources?management of living marine resources?

• Where, when and how often should future Where, when and how often should future measurements be taken to capture important features measurements be taken to capture important features of Georges Bank/GoMe? (tie-in with Ocean of Georges Bank/GoMe? (tie-in with Ocean Observations)Observations)

Technology developmentTechnology development• What GLOBEC technology is routinely used in NOAA What GLOBEC technology is routinely used in NOAA

operations now? operations now?

Presentation materialsPresentation materials

In early GLOBEC years, Zack and Peter In early GLOBEC years, Zack and Peter pounded the corridors of Congress pounded the corridors of Congress drumming up support for the programdrumming up support for the program

In past COP crises, it was argued that In past COP crises, it was argued that some action/budget cut/reorganization some action/budget cut/reorganization would be devastating to GLOBECwould be devastating to GLOBEC

Now, it’s time to show how support in Now, it’s time to show how support in Congress and saving COP funding has led Congress and saving COP funding has led to tremendous success in GLOBECto tremendous success in GLOBEC

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