GLOBAL WARMING

What are the Facts and Impacts

on Energy Policy Issues?

GLOBAL WARMING

What are the Facts and Impacts

on Energy Policy Issues?

Sallie Baliunas

Harvard University and the George C. Marshall Institute

The scientific facts do not support drastic CO2 emission cuts.

The Kyoto Agreement would fail to stop model-forecast global warming.

CONSEQUENCESFROM SCIENCE

CONSEQUENCESFROM SCIENCE

20TH C SURFACE TEMPERATURE TRENDS NOT CLOSELY LINKED TO THE AIR’S

CONTENT OF HUMAN-MADE GREENHOUSE GASES

20TH C SURFACE TEMPERATURE TRENDS NOT CLOSELY LINKED TO THE AIR’S

CONTENT OF HUMAN-MADE GREENHOUSE GASES

Thermometer measurements, available only for approximately 20% of the globe, analyzed by East Anglia Climatic Research Unit (CRU) and NASA-Goddard Institute for Space Studies

(GISS). The air’s Co2 content rose rapidly after the 1950s, and that rise does not readily explain the early 20th c warming and mid-century cooling trends.

NO GLOBAL WARMING IN CRITICAL AIR LAYER: LOWER TROPOSPHERE

NO GLOBAL WARMING IN CRITICAL AIR LAYER: LOWER TROPOSPHERE

Satellite measurements of the lower troposphere (approximately 1-5 miles altitude) show no meaningful human-made global warming trend, in contradiction to the models. Data are from J. Christy, NASA-MSFC

Alaskan temperatures have tended to warm during the positive phases of the PDO (1923-1946 and 1976 - 1998) Data are from S. Hare and N. Mantua http://tao.atmos.washington.edu/pdo/

PACIFIC DECADAL OSCILLATIONPACIFIC DECADAL OSCILLATION

ALASKA TEMPERATURES SHOW PDO AND NOT HUMAN-CAUSED WARMINGALASKA TEMPERATURES SHOW PDO AND NOT HUMAN-CAUSED WARMING

Composite temperatures from best records: Fairbanks, Anchorage, Nome and Barrow. Since 1978 (after the Great Pacific Climate Shift of 1976-1977, caused by the Pacific

Decadal Oscillation, or PDO) the average temperature has dropped nearly 1F. Source: Willie Soon

A NATURAL CAUSE FOR RECENT SURFACE WARMING?

NORTHERN HEMISPHERE LAND TEMPERATURE

A NATURAL CAUSE FOR RECENT SURFACE WARMING?

NORTHERN HEMISPHERE LAND TEMPERATURE

Left – Reconstructed Northern Hemisphere surface temperature; see S. Baliunas and W. Soon 1995. Right – NASA Image from the Moderate Resolution Imaging

Spectroradiometer (MODIS) onboard the Terra satellite.

A SUN – CLIMATE LINK?NORTHERN HEMISPHERE LAND TEMPERATURE

AND SOLAR CYCLE

A SUN – CLIMATE LINK?NORTHERN HEMISPHERE LAND TEMPERATURE

AND SOLAR CYCLE

Left – Changes in the sun’s output are strongly correlated with terrestrial temperatures where records are available. Data are from S. Baliunas and W. Soon 1995.

Right – YOKOH satellite image of one million C plasma in the sun’s outer atmosphere. The plasma is shaped and heated by magnetic fields.

U.S. ENERGY AND COAL USE DIMINISH UNDER KYOTO -- EIA FORECASTS FOR 2010

U.S. ENERGY AND COAL USE DIMINISH UNDER KYOTO -- EIA FORECASTS FOR 2010

EIA(1998) Impacts of the kyoto Protocol on U.S. Energy Markets and Economic Activity

Total Consumption

Petroleum Products

Natural Gas

Coal

Nuclear Power

Renewable Energy

KYOTO PROTOCOL WOULD AVERT ONLY 0.06 C OF GLOBAL WARMING BY 2050

KYOTO PROTOCOL WOULD AVERT ONLY 0.06 C OF GLOBAL WARMING BY 2050

Fully implementing the Kyoto Protocol would not produce a meaningful abatement of the projected warming trend. Equivalently, the forecast warming that would have developed by

2050 occurs by 2053. Model results are for the UKMO HadCM3 IS92a model.

The scientific facts do not support drastic CO2 emission cuts.

The Kyoto Agreement would fail to stop model-forecast global warming.

CONSEQUENCESFROM SCIENCE

CONSEQUENCESFROM SCIENCE