global warming public perception physics of anthropogenic global warming key diagrams ...
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Global Warming Global Warming
Public perceptionPublic perceptionPhysics of anthropogenic global Physics of anthropogenic global
warmingwarmingKey diagrams Key diagrams ConsequencesConsequencesWhat can you do?What can you do?
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Do you think Global Warming is Do you think Global Warming is happening?happening?
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Americans’ Top 4 Gaps in Understanding Climate Change
1. It’s happening now2. It’s us3. We have a choice4. Scientists agree
Results of recent study by the Yale Project on Climate Change Communication
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It’s happening nowIt’s happening now
• 2011 was the 35th year in a row that the global temperature was above average.
• That means half of all Americans have never lived through a year that was below average.
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5State of the Climate 2009 Highlights (NOAA 2010)
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6State of the Climate 2009 Highlights (NOAA 2010)
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7State of the Climate 2009 Highlights (NOAA 2010)
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8State of the Climate 2009 Highlights (NOAA 2010)
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What causes Global Warming?What causes Global Warming?
• Addition of greenhouse gases to atmosphere
• Main culprits are Carbon Dioxide, Methane, and water
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Basic PhysicsBasic Physics
• Greenhouse gases trap heat in Earth’s atmosphere
• Greenhouse gas concentrations have risen
• Trapped radiation has been measured
• Planet will warm!!!!
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Heat-Trapping Blanket
NASA, handweaver.com
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It’s usIt’s us
• Half of human CO2 emissions are added to atmospheric CO2 concentrations each year
• Since 1958, CO2 concentrations have risen from 315 ppm (parts per million) to 392 ppm in 2011 (about 2 ppm per year)
• Other greenhouse gases have risen as well
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CS Fig. 15.17
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Measured Changes in Outgoing Radiation 1970-1997
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1818Similar to CS Fig. 15.20
Trees take upCO2
AnimalsProduceMethane
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CS Fig. 15.19
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2020
CS Fig. 15.20
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Carbon emissions since 1800Carbon emissions since 1800
Fig. 15.20
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Has the burning of Has the burning of fossil fuels resulted in fossil fuels resulted in
increased CO2 increased CO2 concentrations in the concentrations in the
atmosphere?atmosphere?Yes!Yes!-Measurements of air in HawaiiMeasurements of air in Hawaii-Measurements of ancient air Measurements of ancient air preserved in icepreserved in ice
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Bubbles in glacialice preserveair of past cent-uries:
Tell us what CO2
concentrationswere like beforethe industrialrevolution
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Longer recordsLonger records
CurrentCO2 levelsare well aboverange observedduring recentgeologichistory associated withthe ice ages
LastInterglacial
Current
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Best evidence that recent Best evidence that recent warming is anthropogenicwarming is anthropogenic
Data from Mannand others,Nature, 1998;Figure from IPCC 2001Report
Three years in the1990’s are thewarmest in theNorthern Hemisphere,by far, of the last400 years!
Can’t accountFor recent warming Can’t account
For prior warming
Works!
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Figure 15_19Figure 15_19
CS Fig. 15.21
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ConsequencesConsequences
• Planet will warm– High latitudes will warm more than low
latitudes
• Sea level will rise
• Questions:– How fast will warming and sea level rise
occur?– How will Earth’s weather patterns be
affected?
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CS Fig. 15.18
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Fig. 15.24 Grinnell Glacier in Glacier National Park 1n 1914 and 1998.At present rates of melting, there will be no glaciers in Glacier National Parkby 2030.
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Global Temperatures Global Temperatures projected to riseprojected to rise
3 to >7 °C3 to >7 °CIPCC 2009
Fig. 15.22
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USGCRP 2009 Climate Assessment
Number of days over 100 degrees F
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3232
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Figure 15_25b
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Figure 15_25a
Fig. 15.25a Models predict warmer, wetter winters and drier summers by 2100.Midwestern farm states will have summer climate similar to current summers inLouisiana or Texas. USGRP 2009.
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35CS Fig. 15.26
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Change in MinnesotaChange in Minnesota“Recent research indicates a warming trend in Minnesota. A study of the climate record at Fort Snelling shows an increase of 2.9°F in average annual temperature between the 1860s and 1987, almost three times the worldwide average. Analyses of more than a hundred temperature-depth profiles in North America show that ground latitudes comparable to Minnesota’s indicated ground warming of up to 3.6°F.”
From “Playing with Fire, Global Warming in Minnesota” 1999; data from Baker and Skaggs, 1989
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Change in Lake Change in Lake SuperiorSuperior
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MN Biomes at riskMN Biomes at risk
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We have a choiceWe have a choice
http://www.geograph.org.uk/photo/764803
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How optimistic are you?How optimistic are you?
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An economist’s viewAn economist’s view
• Sir Nicholas Stern, former chief economist of the World Bank– “Scientific evidence is overwhelming: climate
change is a serious global threat and demands an urgent global response.”
– Costs of climate change will be 5 to 20% of global GDP
– Reducing greenhouse emissions will cost 1% of global GDP
• $1 spent now could save $20 later in the century
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Scientific consensusScientific consensus
Examining the Scientific Consensus on Climate ChangeEOS, VOLUME 90 NUMBER 3 20 JANUARY 2009
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43Somerville and Hassol, Physics Today, Oct. 2011
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The EndThe End
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